Mance Rayder's Ploy

[sweetsunray]

Sometimes you reread chapters looking for certain clues on one issue, and inadvertently are struck by a A-HA moment on another "mystery" that you were not really trying to figure out.

Many elaborate ideas and strategies have been posted to try and answer the question - "What was Mance's ploy?"

I'm offering my answer today and it's quite simple, nothing tinfoil or exotic, let alone farfetched.

The ingredients to reason out the answer is first of all Jon's 4th chapter in aDwD where he meets with Stannis and offers his advice on the dreadful idea to attack the Dreadfort. Several of Stannis's knights are present (Clayton Suggs, Horpe and Massey) as well as "Rattleshirt" (aka Mance). In fact we get an elaborate teasing of Mance as Rattleshirt at the start of the meeting, references to the rubies that are used for the glamor, and Stannis gifting him to Jon.

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Stannis and his captains were gathered over the map of the north. The wrong-way rangers were amongst them. Sigorn was there as well, the young Magnar of Thenn, clad in a leather hauberk sewn with bronze scales. Rattleshirt sat scratching at the manacle on his wrist with a cracked yellow fingernail. Brown stubble covered his sunken cheeks and receding chin, and strands of dirty hair hung across his eyes. "Here he comes," he said when he saw Jon, "the brave boy who slew Mance Rayder when he was caged and bound." The big square-cut gem that adorned his iron cuff glimmered redly. "Do you like my ruby, Snow? A token o' love from Lady Red."

[...]

"As you wish. I have a gift for you, Lord Snow." The king waved a hand at Rattleshirt. "Him."

Lady Melisandre smiled. "You did say you wanted men, Lord Snow. I believe our Lord of Bones still qualifies."

Jon was aghast. "Your Grace, this man cannot be trusted. If I keep him here, someone will slit his throat for him. If I send him ranging, he'll just go back over to the wildlings."

"Not me. I'm done with those bloody fools." Rattleshirt tapped the ruby on his wrist. "Ask your red witch, bastard."

Melisandre spoke softly in a strange tongue. The ruby at her throat throbbed slowly, and Jon saw that the smaller stone on Rattleshirt's wrist was brightening and darkening as well. "So long as he wears the gem he is bound to me, blood and soul," the red priestess said. "This man will serve you faithfully. The flames do not lie, Lord Snow."

Perhaps not, Jon thought, but you do.

"I'll range for you, bastard," Rattleshirt declared. "I'll give you sage counsel or sing you pretty songs, as you prefer. I'll even fight for you. Just don't ask me to wear your cloak."

(aDwD, Jon IV)

Next the conversation alters on the subject of Mors Umber, because he is offering allegiance to Stannis, for a price.

Quote

King Stannis said, "Lord Snow, tell me of Mors Umber."

The Night's Watch takes no part, Jon thought, but another voice within him said, Words are not swords. "The elder of the Greatjon's uncles. Crowfood, they call him. A crow once took him for dead and pecked out his eye. He caught the bird in his fist and bit its head off. When Mors was young he was a fearsome fighter. His sons died on the Trident, his wife in childbed. His only daughter was carried off by wildlings thirty years ago."

"That's why he wants the head," said Harwood Fell. (aDwD, Jon IV)

Neither Jon or the first time reader knows whose head Crowfood wants, but Stannis, Mel and Mance certainly know. We learn soon after:

Quote

"Can this man Mors be trusted?" asked Stannis.

Has Mors Umber bent the knee? "Your Grace should have him swear an oath before his heart tree."  [...] Jon chose to ignore [bantering Clayton Suggs and Godfry the Giantslayer]. "Your Grace, might I know if the Umbers have declared for you?"

"Half of them, and only if I meet this Crowfood's price," said Stannis, in an irritated tone. "He wants Mance Rayder's skull for a drinking cup, and he wants a pardon for his brother, who has ridden south to join Bolton. Whoresbane, he's called."(aDwD, Jon IV)

Both demands are an issue for Stannis, and one is quite an important issue for Mance.

The conversation continues both on Whoresbane Umber and Bolton's other allies. While the southron knights assume they are Lannister lapdogs, Jon adds context to the ties and possible reasons why these houses side with Roose Bolton. Stannis then points to another issue: Umber will not fight Umber. But Jon provides an easy solution: just don't put them against each other in the battle line.

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Ser Godry was amused by that as well. "What names these northmen have! Did this one bite the head off some whore?"

Jon regarded him coolly. "You might say so. A whore who tried to rob him, fifty years ago in Oldtown." Odd as it might seem, old Hoarfrost Umber had once believed his youngest son had the makings of a maester. Mors loved to boast about the crow who took his eye, but Hother's tale was only told in whispers … most like because the whore he'd disemboweled had been a man. "Have other lords declared for Bolton too?"

The red priestess slid closer to the king. "I saw a town with wooden walls and wooden streets, filled with men. Banners flew above its walls: a moose, a battle-axe, three pine trees, longaxes crossed beneath a crown, a horse's head with fiery eyes."

"Hornwood, Cerwyn, Tallhart, Ryswell, and Dustin," supplied Ser Clayton Suggs. "Traitors, all. Lapdogs of the Lannisters."

"The Ryswells and Dustins are tied to House Bolton by marriage," Jon informed him. "These others have lost their lords in the fighting. I do not know who leads them now. Crowfood is no lapdog, though. Your Grace would do well to accept his terms."

Stannis ground his teeth. "He informs me that Umber will not fight Umber, for any cause."

Jon was not surprised. "If it comes to swords, see where Hother's banner flies and put Mors on the other end of the line." (aDwD, Jon IV)

Jon has several pissing contest words with Godfry following his advice, but Jon surmises correctly that Whoresbane joined Ramsay because the Greatjon is a captive, while Godfry claims Whoresbane and Mors Umber are in cahoots to steal the lands of the Greatjon's children, proving he is a bad listener for he forgets that Jon already relayed that Mors has lost all of his children nor is he aware that Whoresbane has none.

Stannis then explains Jon that he intends to attack the Dreadfort, which Jon warns him against.

Quote

 

"You won't," Jon blurted.[...] Where to begin? Jon moved to the map. Candles had been placed at its corners to keep the hide from rolling up. A finger of warm wax was puddling out across the Bay of Seals, slow as a glacier. "To reach the Dreadfort, Your Grace must travel down the kingsroad past the Last River, turn south by east and cross the Lonely Hills." He pointed. "Those are Umber lands, where they know every tree and every rock. The kingsroad runs along their western marches for a hundred leagues. Mors will cut your host to pieces unless you meet his terms and win him to your cause."

"Very well. Let us say I do that."

"That will bring you to the Dreadfort," said Jon, "but unless your host can outmarch a raven or a line of beacon fires, the castle will know of your approach. It will be an easy thing for Ramsay Bolton to cut off your retreat and leave you far from the Wall, without food or refuge, surrounded by your foes." (aDwD, Jon IV)

 

And Stannis' idea to add the wildlings to his force (vanguard) also poses issues with acquiring the alliance of half the Umber force.

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If Stannis placed the free folk in the van, most would perish quickly. "Drinking from Mance Rayder's skull may give Mors Umber pleasure, but seeing wildlings cross his lands will not. The free folk have been raiding the Umbers since the Dawn of Days, crossing the Bay of Seals for gold and sheep and women. One of those carried off was Crowfood's daughter. Your Grace, leave the wildlings here. Taking them will only serve to turn my lord father's bannermen against you." (aDwD, Jon IV)

So, the demand of Mance's skull is mentioned thrice and the stolen Crowfood daughter is mentioned twice, not just to Stannis, but all in attendance, including Mance himself who is glamored to look like Rattleshirt.

So, when Mance (still glamored as Rattleshirt) mentions he needs 6 spearwives to save Arya and for a ploy of his to Melisandre, that ploy is intended to solve the issues with the Umbers.

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The wildling turned to Melisandre. "I will need horses. Half a dozen good ones. And this is nothing I can do alone. Some of the spearwives penned up at Mole's Town should serve. Women would be best for this. The girl's more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind." (aDwD, Melisandre I)

How could they help? One of the spearwives Rowan has been suspected by readers suspect for a decade to be this stolen daughter of Crowfood, because her responses and reactions and words to Theon betray she has an emotional loyalty towards Starks that is odd for any other wildling and knows the house words of the Starks. Not only does it hint at her being a northerner of origin, rather than a wildling. It implies she was educated in sigils and house words, and thus highborn.

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Rowan pulled Theon away from the northmen praying before the tree, to a secluded spot back by the barracks wall, beside a pool of warm mud that stank of rotten eggs. Even the mud was icing up about the edges, Theon saw. "Winter is coming …"

Rowan gave him a hard look. "You have no right to mouth Lord Eddard's words. Not you. Not ever. After what you did—" [...] "Not us." Rowan grabbed him by the throat and shoved him back against the barracks wall, her face an inch from his. "Say it again and I will rip your lying tongue out, kinslayer." [...] Rowan spat in his face. Then she let him go and wiped her gloved hands on her legs, as if just touching him had soiled her.

Theon knew he should not goad her. In her own way, this one was as dangerous as Skinner or Damon Dance-for-Me. But he was cold and tired, his head was pounding, he had not slept in days. "I have done terrible things … betrayed my own, turned my cloak, ordered the death of men who trusted me … but I am no kinslayer."

"Stark's boys were never brothers to you, aye. We know."

That was true, but it was not what Theon had meant. They were not my blood, but even so, I never harmed them. The two we killed were just some miller's sons. Theon did not want to think about their mother. He had known the miller's wife for years, had even bedded her. Big heavy breasts with wide dark nipples, a sweet mouth, a merry laugh. Joys that I will never taste again. But there was no use telling Rowan any of that. She would never believe his denials, any more than he believed hers. "There is blood on my hands, but not the blood of brothers," he said wearily. "And I've been punished."

"Not enough." Rowan turned her back on him.(aDwD, Theon I)

Neither Stannis or Mance can give Mors Mance's skull to drink from, but Mance can return the long lost daughter, and make her uncle Whoresbane a secret ally to Stannis within the walls of Winterfell.

The spearwives of course help Jeyne Poole escape, inquire with Theon and likely other men on info on secret passages, etc (vital information that could help Stannis), but the "ploy" Mance alludes is simply to help Stannis' alliance with the Umbers, and to appease the men towards Mance and wildlings for returning a lost daughter, when so many sons and kin were lost.

[LynnS]

Woo hoo!  Nice to see you again!  Thanks for this very interesting OP.  I've wondered about Mance's ploy for some time.  Also Melisandre tells Jon that Mance is bound to her in some way.  What do you think she means by this?

Also you were mentioned recently on the History of Westeros podcast in case you didn't know.

[sweetsunray]

56 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Woo hoo!  Nice to see you again!  Thanks for this very interesting OP.  I've wondered about Mance's ploy for some time.  Also Melisandre tells Jon that Mance is bound to her in some way.  What do you think she means by this?

Also you were mentioned recently on the History of Westeros podcast in case you didn't know.

I understood the "bond" to her because of the rubies and her spell. She mentions he's bound as long as he wears the ruby. Mance has attempted to pry it off. It seems however that at WF he managed to get rid of it, somehow.

No, I didn't know I was mentioned recently in the History of Westeros podcast. I did link to a youtube video of theirs on Brandon the Builder the past summer in a Timeline Stuff essay by me about Long Night =/= Night's King. And in that timeline stuff I mentioned Bran the Builder and his various ties to certain buildings. Can you post me a link?

[LynnS]

30 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Can you post me a link?

Oh geez.  I don't think I know specifically which one it was.  Only that I sat up straight when you were mentioned.

[sweetsunray]

10 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Oh geez.  I don't think I know specifically which one it was.  Only that I sat up straight when you were mentioned.

I can always ask Aziz, but it's always nicer for them if I listened to it beforehand. Maybe you remember the subject?

[Groo]

16 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

The spearwives of course help Jeyne Poole escape, inquire with Theon and likely other men on info on secret passages, etc (vital information that could help Stannis), but the "ploy" Mance alludes is simply to help Stannis' alliance with the Umbers, and to appease the men towards Mance and wildlings for returning a lost daughter, when so many sons and kin were lost.

If Rowan really is Mors daughter wouldn't it be far simpler to tell Stannis that and let Stannis present Mors with his long lost daughter? Why take her on a risky mission to Winterfell?

[LynnS]

7 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

I can always ask Aziz, but it's always nicer for them if I listened to it beforehand. Maybe you remember the subject?

Well it was Aziz that mentioned you, but I'm sorry, I was binging on podcasts and I don't remember specifically now.  

[sweetsunray]

21 minutes ago, Groo said:

If Rowan really is Mors daughter wouldn't it be far simpler to tell Stannis that and let Stannis present Mors with his long lost daughter? Why take her on a risky mission to Winterfell?

He was going to rescue fArya anyway: which is the main reason he ended up going to WF. The ploy is the side project, and I'm not claiming it is his main strategy, because his words make that clear. Two birds, one stone.

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The wildling turned to Melisandre. "I will need horses. Half a dozen good ones. And [saving Arya] is nothing I can do alone. Some of the spearwives penned up at Mole's Town should serve. Women would be best for this. The girl's more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind." (aDwD, Melisandre I)

So, why not tell Stannis? Because Stannis did not go to the Umbers. He went for Jon's proposal - get the mountain clans to rally behind him and liberate Deepwood Motte. Stannis's and Mance's efforts to rescue fArya and go for Winterfell develops after Stannis has already left, and Melisandre cannot even see him in her fires.

Moreover, Mors Umber decided to aid Stannis without Stannis giving into the Umber demands. He's doing his own thing outside Winterfell, while Stannis is at the crofter's village. Stannis does not even learn that Mors Umber is doing his thing and his ally until they pass on Theon and fArya to Nestoris who gifts them to Stannis.

Furthermore, Stannis delivering Rowan to Mors Umber might help Mors be an ally of Stannis, but will not lessen his demand for Mance's skull. Mance actively involved directly in returning her will help keep his head from them AND might take the edge off their hostile feelings towards wildlings.

Finally, Stannis would stuff Rowan in a dress as a nobleborn lady. Asha and Alysanne Mormont both experience how short sighted he is about women, especially female warriors. Mance would recognize that Rowan is her own person (spearwives choose their female warrior status voluntarily). Ultimately it should be her own choice whether she rejoins House Umber, as Lady Rowan, or whether she meets her father and uncle personally while still choosing to remain a wildling spearwife.

[sweetsunray]

6 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Well it was Aziz that mentioned you, but I'm sorry, I was binging on podcasts and I don't remember specifically now.  

That's okay. I'll browse some and then ask him.

[Groo]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

So, why not tell Stannis? Because Stannis did not go to the Umbers. He went for Jon's proposal.

If Stannis had known about Rowan might that have influenced his decision about the Umbers? Note that I'm assuming Stannis knows about Mance and not that Melisandre has been hiding it from Stannis, which would mean that Mance would have every reason to give Stannis useful information to further the "I'm still useful don't kill me" argument.

[sweetsunray]

31 minutes ago, Groo said:

If Stannis had known about Rowan might that have influenced his decision about the Umbers? Note that I'm assuming Stannis knows about Mance and not that Melisandre has been hiding it from Stannis, which would mean that Mance would have every reason to give Stannis useful information to further the "I'm still useful don't kill me" argument.

I also assume Stannis knows about Rattleshirt being Mance.

• It's implied in Stannis' reaction whenever the Umber demand of Mance's skull is brought up.
• In the way Stannis seems to consider Rattleshirt an actual worthwhile gift for Jon (after Jon and Val and Jon and Val have begged and reasoned with Stannis to save Mance's life)
• The fact that Stannis even had "Rattleshirt" on his war strategy counsel alongside the Magnar of Thenns
• And then there's Melisandre explaining Mance was saved because of an argument that Jon made to Stannis

 

Quote

 

"Our false king has a prickly manner," Melisandre told Jon Snow, "but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life."

"Me?" Snow sounded startled.

"Who else, my lord? Only his life's blood could pay for his crimes, your laws said, and Stannis Baratheon is not a man to go against the law … but as you said so sagely, the laws of men end at the Wall. I told you that the Lord of Light would hear your prayers. You wanted a way to save your little sister and still hold fast to the honor that means so much to you, to the vows you swore before your wooden god." She pointed with a pale finger. "There he stands, Lord Snow. Arya's deliverance. A gift from the Lord of Light … and me." (aDwD, Melisandre 1)

 

Melisandre by herself would never care about legal arguments. Only Stannis would take such an argument into account. So, yes, Stannis knows, and thus he knows no king's blood is required to make his sword gleam blinding light.

I don't think Stannis would have recognized that Rowan would resolve the attitude of the Umbers towards him, not when the Greatjon is the Frey's captive and the Greatjon has sons and grandsons. He would consider it as a return of a hostage imo, which is honourable thing to aspire to, but int he shouth not necessarily of consequence to alter alliances or end hostilities of a lifelong enmity, while in his opinion far more important political hostages are still a hostage.

That said: Stannis is so lucky that the utterly despised southron Freys are in alliance with Roose Bolton, making every error really that Jon and others warn Stannis (and Selyse about). During the council Godry suggests to not deal with the Umbers and just put Mors' head on a lance/spike for everyone to see in the North. Jon responds you might just throw in the glove if they'd do that.

Spoiler

A glimpse of the computer screen of GRRM working on an Asha chapter for tWoW several years ago includes Freys carrying a lance/spear up with Mors's head.

 

[Nevets]

This theory requires that Mance intends to go to Winterfell, and that he will find Mors Umber there.  Neither is certain, or even likely, unless he knows that Arya is not to be found near Long Lake.  Winterfell is the last place he would take Arya.  Yet it seems Melisandre, at least, is convinced she is in the wilderness near Long Lake.

And all this would assume that Mors would recognize her, accept her back after many years, and not be upset it took so long.  I see a lot of required unlikely knowledge, plus lots of ifs and maybes.  Not buying it.

[sweetsunray]

10 hours ago, Nevets said:

This theory requires that Mance intends to go to Winterfell, and that he will find Mors Umber there.  Neither is certain, or even likely, unless he knows that Arya is not to be found near Long Lake.  Winterfell is the last place he would take Arya.  Yet it seems Melisandre, at least, is convinced she is in the wilderness near Long Lake.

And all this would assume that Mors would recognize her, accept her back after many years, and not be upset it took so long.  I see a lot of required unlikely knowledge, plus lots of ifs and maybes.  Not buying it.

Actually, those are assumptions you insert in there that I did not make nor need.

You are correct that Mel's vision puts the grey girl east from Long Lake. Somehow you consider this a problem for Mance both intending to save Arya and reconnect Rowan to her family, because Mance ends up in Winterfell. Then part of your complaint is with George himself, since Mance's spearwives actually do end rescuing the girl they believe to be Arya, or did that not happen? Or perhaps it was by accident? Some fluke of unintended consequences?

Your bar of requirements also seems to imply that we cannot regard a ploy or a plan a "plan" when it is not executed exactly the same as planned? You do not allow a character to adapt or alter or tweak their initial plan to the circumstances and new information?

Now as to this non-issue about Long Lake and Umbers:

Long Lake is south west of Last Hearth of the Umbers.

So, it is entirely possible that Mance set out with the initial intent and plan  to meet fArya on Umber lands and have Rowan meet with Mors. Then we can safely assume that as they journeyed south towards Long Lake, or actually pased east of Long Lake, they never met a fleeing Arya (for the girl in the visioni ain't Arya and not there at the time), and picked up gossip about Roose Bolton's plans, Arya being either at Barrowton or on her way to Winterfell to be wed there; and then they learned Umber brothers weren't at Last Hearth either (because one set out to create traps, and another to attend the wedding of fArya). Mance altered the plan according to the info he acquired, just like any rational person would. After all, despite indeed the vision sighting being Long Lake, Mance eventually ended up in Winterfell where fArya was and had his spearwives rescue her there. Meanwhile, the change of venue from Long Lake (and Last Hearth) to Winterfell does not mean the intent of the original plan alters: rescue Arya + get Rowan to meet her father.

The concept is not so hard to grasp: people start out with a certain plan, ploy, intent, then as they are trying to execute the plan, the situation changed, new information is come across, and people tweak/adapt/alter the original plan to the newer situation or information. It happens all the time daily in real life, and it happens in literature too. Meanwhile, alterations to the original plan do not make it any less true there once was an original plan. The differences in the executed plan in comparison to original plan do not negate the existence of the original plan. Regarldess of Mance's and Mel's initial plans about the whereabouts of fArya in Mel's POV chapter, Mance adapated it - side ploy or not.Or are you denying Mel's and Mance's primary intent was to rescue fArya? 

I don't know about you, but people are recognizable 30 years later.

Jon mentions the loss of the daughter twice in the same meeting, this means he has heard Mors complain of it (often) in the years before he left to join the Night's Watch. This is something that happened before Jon was ever born, and yet Jon knows it well enough and considers it important enough to mention it twice as some crucial info during a war council with a king who knows 0 about local drama. But somehow you argue that it is not certain that Mors would not get teary eyed and hug his daughter the moment he'd see her? That he'd chase her off his grounds "Too late! You could have come to me sooner! You're not my daughter anymore!"? It's not about "taking back Rowan", but about giving a father a chance to meet his last, long lost child, and knowledge that she lives and is happy in her own way. The only time it's too late for that is when one of them is dead before meeting.

Beyond that I'm not even claiming that Mance's ploy is sure to work, or that Mance himself is sure it would work. I haven't checked the dictionary yet, but I am quite certain that after "plan" it does not say "a plan can only be called a plan if its success is 100% guaranteed". We make numerous plans a day, sometimes even knowing beforehand that failure is 100% guaranteed. But we still call them "a plan" or a "ploy". Something can be a plan or ploy and never ever be executed and still be called a plan or ploy. Every night I make a plan to get up early enough so I can do my morning yoga. We can safely say that my plan and intention of the evening fails in the execution of it roughly 80% of the time the next day, but I still do my yoga 90% of the time, just not like the ideal of "get up at 7 am, instantly do 10 mins, hit the shower, etc, and out the door you go at 8 am" as I had it in my head the evening before.

So, I mostly see you inventing requirements to push goalposts that Mors Umber doesn't even need himself, as it turns out: he chose to fight for Stannis outside of Winterfell, regardless, without meeting Rowan, without having Mance's skull to drink from. 

If your criticism was just that Mance could not originally have intended to do this at Winterfell, I agree. It's a logical given to me that the initial plan was slightly different - location, timing, the Umber in question - just as it's a logical given that the execution of the ploy altered because of those things.

But if it's to argue that because of logical adaptations to circumstances the execution of a plan negates there ever being a plan, then you do you.

[Sly Wren]

On 1/2/2023 at 10:21 PM, sweetsunray said:

Many elaborate ideas and strategies have been posted to try and answer the question - "What was Mance's ploy?"

I'm offering my answer today and it's quite simple, nothing tinfoil or exotic, let alone farfetched.

Well done! Not farfetched at all!

On 1/2/2023 at 10:21 PM, sweetsunray said:

Neither Stannis or Mance can give Mors Mance's skull to drink from, but Mance can return the long lost daughter, and make her uncle Whoresbane a secret ally to Stannis within the walls of Winterfell.

The spearwives of course help Jeyne Poole escape, inquire with Theon and likely other men on info on secret passages, etc (vital information that could help Stannis), but the "ploy" Mance alludes is simply to help Stannis' alliance with the Umbers, and to appease the men towards Mance and wildlings for returning a lost daughter, when so many sons and kin were lost.

Exactly.

Plus (full disclosure) it fits with my pet theory that Mance is actually a pointer/echo of Rhaegar.

Yes, Mance is his own man with own plot. But he's also giving us info on the past--Bael, red and black cloak, Cornishman's Wife, etc.

Mance stole a northern daughter for his own purposes. No clear evidence it was romantic-- I can't remember Rowan being romantically attracted to Mance/Abel. By all means correct me if I'm wrong. 

But all this time later, all this time with Mance's hoard and his ideas, Rowan is still all in for the North and the Starks. She's still who she is. As Arya is, even after being with the Brotherhood and the House of Black and White. 

But Mance never let her go--makes me wonder if he's held onto her for so long largely for future leverage. Yes, you note above that she is a spearwife and may very well prefer to remain so. But Osha makes it clear Mance wants certain hostages. Mance is clearly happy to get Jon. Given Mance's desire to take over a lot of things (Rhaegar is the same), makes sense to find and keep useful hostages.

Are you playing at all with Rowan's name? The protector? tree of life? Even the "red-haired?' 

Rowan--the northern daughter, who, like Arya, Wylla Manderly, and (presumably) Lyanna, never has her ties to the north broken.

A very valuable asset in any Mance ploy.

22 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

So, it is entirely possible that Mance set out with the initial intent and plan  to meet fArya on Umber lands and have Rowan meet with Mors. Then we can safely assume that as they journeyed south towards Long Lake, or actually pased east of Long Lake, they never met a fleeing Arya (for the girl in the visioni ain't Arya and not there at the time), and picked up gossip about Roose Bolton's plans, Arya being either at Barrowton or on her way to Winterfell to be wed there; and then they learned Umber brothers weren't at Last Hearth either (because one set out to create traps, and another to attend the wedding of fArya). Mance altered the plan according to the info he acquired, just like any rational person would. After all, despite indeed the vision sighting being Long Lake, Mance eventually ended up in Winterfell where fArya was and had his spearwives rescue her there. Meanwhile, the change of venue from Long Lake (and Last Hearth) to Winterfell does not mean the intent of the original plan alters: rescue Arya + get Rowan to meet her father.

Precisely. Even the most notorious plotters in the novels (Baelish, Tywin)--they stir the pot, try something, then adjust as needed. 

Mance didn't survive this long by being overly rigid.

[sweetsunray]

52 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Mance stole a northern daughter for his own purposes. No clear evidence it was romantic-- I can't remember Rowan being romantically attracted to Mance/Abel. By all means correct me if I'm wrong. 

But all this time later, all this time with Mance's hoard and his ideas, Rowan is still all in for the North and the Starks. She's still who she is. As Arya is, even after being with the Brotherhood and the House of Black and White. 

But Mance never let her go--makes me wonder if he's held onto her for so long largely for future leverage. Yes, you note above that she is a spearwife and may very well prefer to remain so. But Osha makes it clear Mance wants certain hostages. Mance is clearly happy to get Jon. Given Mance's desire to take over a lot of things (Rhaegar is the same), makes sense to find and keep useful hostages.

To be fair, Mance himself did not steal Mors's daughter. The daughter was taken by raiders 30 years ago. Mance visited WF as an escort to LC Qorgyle at most 14 years ago. Back then he witnessed Jon and Robb play a prank and promised not to tell. He "turned his cloak" years later. So, Mance is not directly responsible for Mors not having a daughter anymore.

But I do like you've pointed out that Mance may have regarded Jon and Rowan as a type of "ward" or "hostage" for leverage.

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

Are you playing at all with Rowan's name? The protector? tree of life? Even the "red-haired?' 

Didn't look into symbolism for this. Four of the six spearwives that accompany Mance have tree-or-green names (Rowan, Holly, Willow Witch-Eye and Myrtle) . A fourth is called Squirrel, and the climber, who claims she'll go hide in the WF's weirwood tree (and all those who hid or climbed the weirwood tree so far have survived WF: Bran and Wex Pyke). So she's a parallel to a CotF. No idea for any special tie for Frenya, but we see her and Holly die. Holly makes sense in a symbolical way - the "holly king" (or green knight) dies at the start of winter, and Holly is a green spearwife (the youngest). Rowan is often referred to as the "traveler's tree" and regarded as a protector or guardian between portals. Myrtle is associated with Venus and Persephone, and often part of a bridal bouquet, whereas willow is often given to a groom after being wed.

In that sense Rowan, as Mors' daughter, functions as a ward/protector of Mance against Umbers. Rowan, Myrtle and Willow do not join Theon, Holly and Frenya to the gate and WF's wall, but instead return to go to the Great Hall and join Mance there.

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

Precisely. Even the most notorious plotters in the novels (Baelish, Tywin)--they stir the pot, try something, then adjust as needed. 

Mance didn't survive this long by being overly rigid.

Even one of the most rigid characters in the series, Stannis, adapts and adjusts.

[Sly Wren]

20 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

To be fair, Mance himself did not steal Mors's daughter. The daughter was taken by raiders 30 years ago. Mance visited WF as an escort to LC Qorgyle at most 14 years ago. Back then he witnessed Jon and Robb play a prank and promised not to tell. He "turned his cloak" years later. So, Mance is not directly responsible for Mors not having a daughter anymore.

But I do like you've pointed out that Mance may have regarded Jon and Rowan as a type of "ward" or "hostage" for leverage.

My apologies--I read too quickly.

And I will avoid going into why I think that still makes Mance echo Rhaegar so I don't completely hijack your thread.

But the showing of how a Westerosi figure works to find allies, bring about change--Mance, like Baelish, like Tywin, like Stannis--they all look for what resources they have to get their way. Even something as simple as keeping Jon and Robb's secret all those years ago. Makes perfect sense that Mance would figure out that Rowan was Crowfoot's daughter and hold onto that info until he needed it.

And I love how Martin keeps showing this. It probably would make the series MUCH shorter if Martin would stop showing these patterns in side plots and simply finish the central plots.

But the very fact that he keeps showing these things--really makes me think he's showing us what went down in the past and in the central plots.

20 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

In that sense Rowan, as Mors' daughter, functions as a ward/protector of Mance against Umbers. Rowan, Myrtle and Willow do not join Theon, Holly and Frenya to the gate and WF's wall, but instead return to go to the Great Hall and join Mance there.

I was thinking the same basics about Rowan, too. Not sure how much to read into the names. But given the likelihood of who Rowan is, her name might have more significance.

Maybe.

20 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Even one of the most rigid characters in the series, Stannis, adapts and adjusts.

Yup!

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

My apologies--I read too quickly.

No apologies necessary. You still made a good point. Stannis's knights also basically end up believing that Mors holds Mance responsible for the stealing of his daughter. That's why one of them says, "Ah, that's why he wants the head" (paraphrasing). You simply gave me the opportunity to clarify the details on this that I did not get into the OP.

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

But the showing of how a Westerosi figure works to find allies, bring about change--Mance, like Baelish, like Tywin, like Stannis--they all look for what resources they have to get their way. Even something as simple as keeping Jon and Robb's secret all those years ago. Makes perfect sense that Mance would figure out that Rowan was Crowfoot's daughter and hold onto that info until he needed it.

Absolutely! I would compare Mance with Varys in that way. According to Illyrio, Varys at some point learned that knowing and keeping secrets was far more profitable than even stealing secrets. And Varys has the patience to use such knowledge at the opportune time. And I completely agree that is what he did when keeping Jon's and Robb's secret as well with Rowan. Knowing and using the secret when Mance calculated he may have to endanger his own life (traveling across Umber lands or going to Barrowton or singing and entertaining at Winterfell) to complete his mission to rescue fArya is a very smart move.

Once it was clear to Mance that he needed to enter Winterfell, it allows him the opportunity to make an unexpected ally with the supposed enemies, Hother Umber, her uncle who knows his own brother's grievance over it well enough. It might not make Hother an ally to Stannis directly or openly, but at least someone who may want to help Mance and the spearwives escape or cover for them. It gives him an opportunity to have an ally outside of the WF walls with Mors himself, if he and the spearwives need to escape. (I'm not convinced whatsoever that Mance and the remaining spearwives were indeed caught by Ramsay as the Pink Letter claims).

I also believe that he did not inform Rowan why he might have picked her. He only needed to stoke some of her northerner feelings, and she's living south of the Wall again after all. She likely volunteered eagerly to do something for the Starks.

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

And I love how Martin keeps showing this. It probably would make the series MUCH shorter if Martin would stop showing these patterns in side plots and simply finish the central plots.

But the very fact that he keeps showing these things--really makes me think he's showing us what went down in the past and in the central plots.

It makes these characters very realistic and human to us.

Quote

I was thinking the same basics about Rowan, too. Not sure how much to read into the names. But given the likelihood of who Rowan is, her name might have more significance.

We have a living ensemble of trees (including red haired, kissed by fire one), Mance as raven (the wings on his prior helmet) and crow, and a squirrel (CotF) and a one-eyed tree witch (woods witch). Together they make an old gods ensemble. I would not dismiss their possibility to survive too quickly, certainly not because of that Pink Letter with a wad of pink wax (when Rattleshirt, aka Mance, was standing right there when Jon received Ramsay's letter in which he proclaimed he was to become be the rightful Lord of WF and husband to Arya, and certainly would have noticed the colour of the wax). 

[Lord Varys]

The gist of things there could actually work -

Spoiler

although we already know that Mors Umber is dead as per Asha 1 of TWoW, so no happy reunion between father and daughter there.

I think Hother Umber realizing that it was his niece who was tortured or killed by Ramsay would add another motivational layer for him to betray the Boltons ... but

Spoiler

the death of his brother at the command of Hosteen Frey

should do this just as well in context, not to mention the Karstark betrayal, a Frey defeat and Manderly defection to Stannis at the Battle of the Ice. Obviously, the ending of the Boltons will not necessarily come by a silly storming or secret invasion of Winterfell ... but by Roose and Ramsay being betrayed by their own men, resulting in them either being put down inside the castle (like Aegon II was), or simply by a faction of Northmen (which could easily enough be the Umbers under Hother but just as well Hornwood, Tallhart, Cerwyn, etc. men) opening a (postern) gate to let Stannis' forces in.

Even without the Manderlys most of the Northmen at Winterfell aside from, perhaps, the Dustins and the Ryswells will turn against the Boltons as soon as they appear weak. And they will look weak without the Freys and with the Karstarks and the Manderlys turning against them.

Whilst this is an interesting idea, plot-wise it is completely unnecessary. George can easily enough keep things simpler by Hother Umber turning his cloak as the tide turns.

What makes this idea less likely is the simple fact that Hother Umber and his men were not, in fact, involved in the saving of Jeyne Poole. If Mance's plan had been to arrange a reunion between niece and uncle then there would be ample time for this to happen during ADwD. Now it is certainly possible that Theon just has no clue that it did happen - but one really wonders if things had played as they did if Abel and his women had had a crucial player inside of Winterfell on their side. For instance, they would have likely organized things so that some Umber men were manning the walls at the spot they wanted to make their escape.

[sweetsunray]

I would not be too quick to believe Mors Umber is not doing anything. Well, we still don't know who actually did the murdering of Ramsay's men for example. Theon assumes it were "Abel's" spearwives/washerwomen, but they have always denied it, even if it would have been in their interest to claim it to scare or threaten him into cooperation. Meanwhile the details on what Hother Umber did to the male prostitute trying to steal from him in Oldtown when he was young is apparently so grizzly, nobody dares to speak of it aloud. MIght be he cut the thief and stuffed it in his mouth? When Ramsay has less of his fanboys with him, it becomes far more difficult for Ramsay to have his own eyes, spies, witnesses, to help hunt for Theon, fArya, and/or Mance and Rowan.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I would not be too quick to believe Mors Umber is not doing anything.

I think Mors cannot be directly involved in that since that would then mean he has a secret way inside the castle. And if he had that, Theon and Jeyne could and would have used that rather than jumping off the wall.

That is, if we assume they were some kind of communication going on between them all - which seems to be your take as per the link Mors' daughter could provide Mance with.

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Well, we still don't know who actually did the murdering of Ramsay's men for example. Theon assumes it were "Abel's" spearwives/washerwomen, but they have always denied it, even if it would have been in their interest to claim it to scare or threaten him into cooperation. Meanwhile the details on what Hother Umber did to the male prostitute trying to steal from him in Oldtown when he was young is apparently so grizzly, nobody dares to speak of it aloud. MIght be he cut the thief and stuffed it in his mouth? When Ramsay has less of his fanboys with him, it becomes far more difficult for Ramsay to have his own eyes, spies, witnesses, to help hunt for Theon, fArya, and/or Mance and Rowan.

Nah, the women only deny having murdered Little Walder. But they really seem to have murdered Ramsay's men.

We can, perhaps, consider Hother/his people as having had a hand in the murder of Little Walder but there chances are actually better that either Theon himself did it in some kind of half-mad state ... or one of Manderly's men did it.

But in fact Theon would be the biggest suspect since he would be the only one to care enough for Little Walder to want to stop him from becoming another version of Ramsay. Manderly strikes me as too cautious to put out his neck in that fashion. He would rather target an important/relevant Frey like Aenys or Hosteen.