Mance Rayder's Ploy

[Groo]

19 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I also believe that he did not inform Rowan why he might have picked her. He only needed to stoke some of her northerner feelings, and she's living south of the Wall again after all. She likely volunteered eagerly to do something for the Starks.

Um, isn't Hother at Winterfell the whole time Mance and Rowan were there? Didn't Hother or any of the Umber men recognize her? Hother has all the greybeards with him (i.e. the ones who would be old enough to recognize her). Wouldn't she automatically reach out to Hother? Is she somehow hiding from all of them?

[sweetsunray]

23 minutes ago, Groo said:

Um, isn't Hother at Winterfell the whole time Mance and Rowan were there? Didn't Hother or any of the Umber men recognize her? Hother has all the greybeards with him (i.e. the ones who would be old enough to recognize her). Wouldn't she automatically reach out to Hother? Is she somehow hiding from all of them?

When I wrote "I also believe he did not inform Rowan ....." that should be thought of as "when they started out". Obviously they would meet once Mance was aware they'd be going to the same location where Hother would be, and would then warn Rowan ahead of that.

I'm also pretty sure Hother and his greybears recognized her and she recognized her uncle, early on. We just aren't a witness to it, because we see everything at WF from Theon's POV, who obviously is not given any such crucial information.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

When I wrote "I also believe he did not inform Rowan ....." that should be thought of as "when they started out". Obviously they would meet once Mance was aware they'd be going to the same location where Hother would be, and would then warn Rowan ahead of that.

I'm also pretty sure Hother and his greybears recognized her and she recognized her uncle, early on. We just aren't a witness to it, because we see everything at WF from Theon's POV, who obviously is not given any such crucial information.

This sounds like a huge stretch. We have no clue how old Mors' daughter was when she was taken, do we? What we do know, however, is that Hother and Mors are both not exactly young men ... so the chance that they recognize some bard's 'washerwoman' as a lost Umber girl is very low indeed.

In fact, if you think about it then there is little to no chance that actually approaching Hother Umber with a woman claiming to be his niece would work.

It is still possible that Rowan is Mors' daughter ... but then Mance took her because she knew more about things south of the Wall than he himself and/or the other women he picked. Not so much because she was some kind of crucial co-conspirator.

Again - if they had made contact with Hother and were working with him the entire stealing of Jeyne would have worked completely differently. The Umbers would have either helped directly or would have at least helped to arrange diversion so the escape could be arranged in a less suicidal manner. Which it didn't. It is a miracle that Theon and Jeyne survived, and quite unlikely, in fact, that Rowan and the other women are not currently skinned alive and Mance Rayder is not precisely where the Pink Letter claims he is.

[sweetsunray]

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Again - if they had made contact with Hother and were working with him the entire stealing of Jeyne would have worked completely differently. The Umbers would have either helped directly or would have at least helped to arrange diversion so the escape could be arranged in a less suicidal manner. Which it didn't. It is a miracle that Theon and Jeyne survived, and quite unlikely, in fact, that Rowan and the other women are not currently skinned alive and Mance Rayder is not precisely where the Pink Letter claims he is.

I have already replied to this right after your first post. But in a nutshell - Hother may have been involved in the murders at Winterfell. Theon blames the washerwomen, but Theon knows very little. They deny it. Stuffing a cock in one of Ramsay's guy's mouth seems right up the alley for Whoresbane.

As for their age. Loved ones can be recognized 30 years later, easily... not first glance perhaps, but movement, expressions, etc. Not to mention she probably resembles either siblings or mother, which Hother could recognize as well.

Edited January 7 by sweetsunray

[Nevets]

2 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I have already replied to this right after your first post. But in a nutshell - Hother may have been involved in the murders at Winterfell. Theon blames the washerwomen, but Theon knows very little. They deny it. Stuffing a cock in one of Ramsay's guy's mouth seems right up the alley for Whoresbane.

As for their age. Loved ones can be recognized 30 years later, easily... not first glance perhaps, but movement, expressions, etc. Not to mention she probably resembles either siblings or mother, which Hother could recognize as well.

Killing Ramsay's men isn't really all that helpful.  Mance and the others are there to rescue Arya, and that's what they are going to need help with.  But it's clear they had no help with the rescue, nor were they anticipating any.  This suggests no contact with Hother.

That doesn't negate the possibility that Rowan is Mors's daughter; it could be they didn't trust Hother.  I'm unsure how it advances the story though.  Mance, Rowan, and Mors are all in dire straits and unlikely to survive long.  And even with a reunion, I fail to see story significance.  Stannis is the big player here; if he takes Winterfell as I expect, he'll be top dog in the North, and everyone left will gravitate towards him. 

[Lord Varys]

42 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Killing Ramsay's men isn't really all that helpful.  Mance and the others are there to rescue Arya, and that's what they are going to need help with.  But it's clear they had no help with the rescue, nor were they anticipating any.  This suggests no contact with Hother.

Indeed. As I already pointed out above. Also, the women only claim they had had no hand in the murder of Little Walder. They do not say they didn't kill the others. Instead, it is quite likely that they did.

It makes no sense to assume they work with Hother since the Jeyne operation would have gone much smoother if Hother and/or his Umber men had helped Mance and the women and Theon with the mission.

Hell, they would have never included the castrated broken cripple turncloak if they had had Hother Umber on board. Theon was a complete wildcard, including him shows how desperate they actually were.

42 minutes ago, Nevets said:

That doesn't negate the possibility that Rowan is Mors's daughter; it could be they didn't trust Hother.  I'm unsure how it advances the story though.  Mance, Rowan, and Mors are all in dire straits and unlikely to survive long.  And even with a reunion, I fail to see story significance.  Stannis is the big player here; if he takes Winterfell as I expect, he'll be top dog in the North, and everyone left will gravitate towards him. 

As subplot, it adds literally nothing to the overall story and there is pretty much no way to actually tell this story in a meaningful or interesting manner unless further POVs are added (the only other way would be to tell it in retrospect, say, with Theon or Asha later learning who this Rowan woman actually was).

As I also already said - Hother would be easily enough sufficiently motivated to betray the Boltons without this long lost niece story. Namely, in fact, by the simple fact that

Spoiler

we know from a page of Asha 1 from TWoW that Hosteen Frey killed Mors Umber and (many of) his boys in the wake of Aenys Frey's death and is currently using Mors' own head for a banner.

Now this is, at this point hearsay both in-universe and, technically, to us ... but it is certainly enough.

In context, though, one should really remember that Hother Umber is right there in ADwD when the Boltons make their plans with Arnolf Karstark ... and yet there is no indication that he told his brother about this. The guys telling Stannis about Arnolf's betrayal are Theon and Tycho Nestoris via Jon and Alys Karstark ... it does not also include Mors Umber who could have been told about the Bolton plans by his dear brother Hother Whoresbane. After all, Hother is right there with Arnolf and Ramsay when Theon is brought out of his cell in the beginning of the book.

If this indicates anything then that Hother is pretty firmly in camp Bolton. Not that he is another secret Stark friend in hiding waiting for the right moment to jump out of the bushes.

This doesn't mean he won't turn his cloak when the tide turns against Stannis. But all he and others might need for that is a defeat of the Freys at the lake and the news that the Karstark stuck with Stannis and the Manderlys defected to them. Combined with the loss of Jeyne this should mark the end of their ability to keep their army together.

There is also no need for complicated plots to invade Winterfell. Somebody could - and likely will - just open some postern gate to Stannis to save his own neck and/or get even with Bolton scum. There is no need for subtlety there.

By the way - if Lord Wyman doesn't die of his wound has anybody ever considered that he might end up killing Roose? He wouldn't have accompanied his men to battle in any case, being unable to sit a horse. So if we imagine a scenario where Roose attends Wyman in his chambers while he is recovering one could see the fat man gathering his strength, telling the bloodless leech that he fed his fat Frey wife her own kin at the wedding feast before he throws himself on Roose, crushing his head or spine beneath his weight.

Could be a fine ending to this plot and characters, all things considered. And if the show is right there that Ramsay of all people ends up running House Bolton then their entire cause shouldn't outlive Roose for more than half a day. Because it is crystal clear in the books that no Northern lord would ever want to follow Ramsay, especially not Roose's closest and most trusted allies, the Dustins and Ryswells. Even the Dreadfort men refuse to fight for the ill-begotten bastard.

[sweetsunray]

1 minute ago, Nevets said:

Killing Ramsay's men isn't really all that helpful. 

So, less of Ramsay's men to pay attention, blab or hunt is not helpful?

Especially Yellow Dick's murder is a glaring bold one, and heavily hints at sexual transgression when his genitals were cut off and shoved into his mouth, breaking his teeth. Ramsay's men are truly vile, and it would not surprise me if he attempted to harrass the "washerwomen" and Hother had none of it.

It is Whoresbane who says the following of the free rider they throw across the wall:

Quote

"Or he'll be sucking Lord Stannis's cock before the sun goes down," Whoresbane Umber threw back. (aDwD, a Ghost in Winterfell)

And Rowan is the one who ended up close enough to Yellow Dick to assess he smelled like Theon and she judges him a pig of a man.

 

Quote

 

"That was not us. I told you."

"Words are wind." They are no better than me. We're just the same. "You killed the others, why not him? Yellow Dick—"

"—stank as bad as you. A pig of a man." (aDwD, Theon I)

 

That sounds like Rowan had some unwanted confrontation with Yellow Dick. Remember that Ramsay's men also have guard functions at Ramsay's bedroom. Rowan herself warns Holly to follow Theon's advice to keep their heads down and hoods up, because some of Ramsay's men might recognize Holly. This fits with Rowan having had a way too close an encounter with Yellow Dick that could have ruined the mission entirely.

 

Quote

 

The entryway was nigh as cold as the air outside. Holly kicked snow from her boots and lowered the hood of her cloak. "I thought that would be harder." Her breath frosted the air.

"There are more guards upstairs at m'lord's bedchamber," Theon warned her. "Ramsay's men." He dare not call them the Bastard's Boys, not here. You never knew who might be listening. "Keep your heads down and your hoods up."

"Do as he says, Holly," Rowan said. "There's some will know your face. We don't need that trouble."

 

They're even lucky about which of Ramsay's men are guarding the door to Ramsay's bedchamber. Who arranged for that? Well, those two were probably put on guard duty by Ramsay, because he needed his other men to ready themselves for the attack on Stannis. And that attack was not just necessitated, because of the arrival of a message of Stannis' whereabouts by the Karstark betrayal, but most of all because two armies inside WF were about to go to war with each other inside the walls of WF. Remember what caused that animosity to boil over? The murder of Little Walder! This conveniently occurred on the day they planned to rescue Jeyne Poole. The murder provoked an infighting which forced Roose to order the Freys, Manderly and Ramsay to leave Winterfell and attack Stannis. Even if fox-faced Big Walder held the blade, who put him up to it, or gave him the little nudge to do it at the most opportune time? Who whispered him who to point the finger at? Who was the man with the silver?

Who stood ready in the waiting to catch Theon and Jeyne at the Walls that very day, so close, and trap Freys at the right exit gate? Only Hother would have known how to communicate to Mors to be ready.

 

Quote

 

Rowan grasped Theon's arm. "The bath. It must be now."

He wrenched free of her touch. "By day? We will be seen."

"The snow will hide us. Are you deaf? Bolton is sending forth his swords. We have to reach King Stannis before they do."

 

And who provided the servant girl clothes for them? It sure wasn't Theon!

Quote

When Squirrel returned, the other four were with her: gaunt grey-haired Myrtle, Willow Witch-Eye with her long black braid, Frenya of the thick waist and enormous breasts, Holly with her knife. Clad as serving girls in layers of drab grey roughspun, they wore brown woolen cloaks lined with white rabbit fur. No swords, Theon saw. No axes, no hammers, no weapons but knives. Holly's cloak was fastened with a silver clasp, and Frenya had a girdle of hempen rope wound about her middle from her hips to breasts. It made her look even more massive than she was. Myrtle had servant's garb for Rowan. 

So....

2 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Mance and the others are there to rescue Arya, and that's what they are going to need help with.  But it's clear they had no help with the rescue, nor were they anticipating any.  This suggests no contact with Hother.

We don't know what other help Mance and Rowan had, because it's Theon's POV and he is oblivious of a lot of stuff. Hother would have made sure that Theon knew little to nothing of him, because he was Ramsay's pet after all and was known to have betrayed not only the Starks, but even the Ironborn. Theon not knowing of any help that Hother miight have provided is not evidence there was no help.

The sole reason two of the spearwives are dead is because Jeyne Poole screamed as Frenya kills the second guardsman near the battlements. Nobody else could see them: when they stood in the middle of the yard, you couldn't even see the castle. Jeyne's scream at seeing a man murdered in front of her was the sole reason why more guardsmen came running. That and Frenya's mistake to try to stop the oncoming guardsmen while she wore the rope was the sole reason things went wrong at the end.

[Lord Varys]

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

So, less of Ramsay's men to pay attention, blab or hunt is not helpful?

Especially Yellow Dick's murder is a glaring bold one, and heavily hints at sexual transgression when his genitals were cut off and shoved into his mouth, breaking his teeth. Ramsay's men are truly vile, and it would not surprise me if he attempted to harrass the "washerwomen" and Hother had none of it.

That strikes one as a very convoluted motivational layer. Whoresbane Umber, a man who killed a male whore himself, should have issue with men molesting whores? Not very likely. Niece or not, 'Rowan' most definitely would be a whore in his eyes. The guy also strikes one as too hard and cold to bother with scum and children. If he wanted to murder folks, he would target Hosteen, Aenys, Barbrey, Ramsay, or Roose himself.

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

They're even lucky about which of Ramsay's men are guarding the door to Ramsay's bedchamber. Who arranged for that? Well, those two were probably put on guard duty by Ramsay, because he needed his other men to ready themselves for the attack on Stannis. And that attack was not just necessitated, because of the arrival of a message of Stannis' whereabouts by the Karstark betrayal, but most of all because two armies inside WF were about to go to war with each other inside the walls of WF. Remember what caused that animosity to boil over? The murder of Little Walder! This conveniently occurred on the day they planned to rescue Jeyne Poole. The murder provoked an infighting which forced Roose to order the Freys, Manderly and Ramsay to leave Winterfell and attack Stannis.

Sure you don't want to hear this, but you are again factually incorrect there. Ramsay isn't commanded to fight Stannis in ADwD. Roose only sends the Manderlys and the Freys against Stannis. It is Theon - and Theon alone - who has the (somewhat weird) notion that Ramsay will come after the Freys and Boltons. Not even the Pink Letter claims that it was Ramsay who defeated Stannis in this battle lasting seven days. It just claims he was defeated.

While it is possible that Theon's fears that Ramsay is coming are correct ... one really wonders if Roose would be as stupid as to give Ramsay command of the bulk of his troops. The man has no experience as a general and shouldn't know much about strategy ... not to mention that he would not be able to work well with any Dustin, Ryswell, Umber commanders that would serve under him.

Stannis is quite correct that there is little reason for him to fear this bastard - and Roose should be smart enough to know that, too.

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Who stood ready in the waiting to catch Theon and Jeyne at the Walls that very day, so close, and trap Freys at the right exit gate? Only Hother would have known how to communicate to Mors to be ready.

Mors Umber and his men were around the castle of Winterfell for days at that point. There is no reason to believe they needed to be told that Theon was jumping off the walls with Jeyne - they would have had scouts in the area who saw and found them. Some things don't need to be part of an elaborated plot to make sense.

12 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

We don't know what other help Mance and Rowan had, because it's Theon's POV and he is oblivious of a lot of stuff. Hother would have made sure that Theon knew little to nothing of him, because he was Ramsay's pet after all and was known to have betrayed not only the Starks, but even the Ironborn. Theon not knowing of any help that Hother miight have provided is not evidence there was no help.

As I keep saying - if Hother were on board, the wildlings would likely not even bother with Theon at all. They view him as badly as you try to tell us Hother would view him ... and with Hother on board they could come up with a much better, less Theon-based plan to get Jeyne out of the castle. They only approach Theon because they think he knows something about a secret way in and out of Winterfell. With Hother on board and Mors in on the plan as well, they could have gotten out of Winterfell without bloodshed - simply by way of jumping off a section of the Wall under direct Umber control. Which would or could have been the case somewhere in Winterfell if Hother Umber had pushed for it. He is one of Roose's closest allies, after all. Trusted enough to be in on the original ploy to lure Stannis to the Dreadfort. Even if Roose didn't trust the Umber with manning a section of the Wall - Hother being on board could have meant that his men took care of the Bolton men wherever the wildlings wanted to escape, so the women wouldn't have been forced to do the blood work all by themselves. Which they did in the book.

And again, Hother apparently didn't warn his brother Mors nor Stannis about the impending Karstark betrayal. So there is actually zero reason to believe the guy does care much about undermining the Boltons while they appear to be strong enough to prevail.