NFL Playoffs 2023

[DireWolfSpirit]

2 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

I hadn't heard that, but Gisele is supposedly worth more than $300M on her own, not counting Tom's money, which is over $200M, that's a combined net worth of half a billion.  Unless they put almost all of their money in crypto, which would be nuts, they are still very, very rich even if they lost a few tens of million.

I think Tom is addicted to football, this is why he came back and part of why he's now divorced.  

Im reading Tom and Gisele have lost nearly 2 million is shares alone with shares going for 100's of dollars at one point. While i dont know Tom and Giseles dollar cost average in purchases. Some simple back of envelope calculation tells you their losses are enormous even for half a billionaire types.

[James Arryn]

9ers Cowboys has a bit of a trap game feel. Niners have handled Dallas for a bit, and obviously last year they seemed the much better team in Dallas…but Dallas almost got into game-steal mode with a late push. Mercalf had his way with Ward for most of this last game against Seattle, which is a bit worrying. It’s very rare for Ward to play that poorly, but otoh Lenore played out of his mind and that’s not anything to count on. But bigger picture, a month ago this game seems like titans going head to head, Dak’s bad luck/poor decisions down the stretch makes the gap seem a lot wider than it is. The line is 4, which imo is more grounded in reality than a lot of the prognosis of dominance, but yes, Dallas lines are always a bit off. 
 

If you could promise me a Cowboy will poke the bear at some point like that dirty MF Seahawk did, I’d be more confident. I THINK the game was likely heading to blow-out-ish anyways, but we’ll never know, the Niners D in particular looked to be kinda sleepwalking the first half. I’m not sure we can afford anything like that against Dallas, but I’m worried that recent history makes it a little more likely to happen, 
 

 

Edited January 17 by James Arryn

[Maithanet]

Prescott is the oldest qb left in the playoffs at 29.  Mahomes (27) is next.  A true youth movement this year.  Last year had Stafford, Brady, Rodgers and Tannehill all as 10+ year vets. 

[Mexal]

4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Bomani Jones, Mina Kimes and Domonique Foxworth for starters. They're all excellent and think he's at best meh. I could list a lot more names if you want, and the same general opinion remains, meh. Andy Reid with Burrow and those receivers would be sooo much more fun. Don't lie, you'd want to see it.

Can you point me to their commentary? I'm curious on their language + timing.

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

That's kind of the point though. We know he's a good coach. Our evidence that Taylor is basically, "Shit Joe Burrow is fucking good" when Burrow was clearly excellent before he got there. I get the argument that Mex made that Taylor has changed a lot of the culture, but to me he's still just a guy until I see something more.

I gave you plenty of reasons why it goes beyond Burrow and you basically hand waved it like it's unimportant. So, what more do you need to see to recognize him being more than mediocre? What would convince you? Mina waxing poetic about Zac Taylor?

[James Arryn]

Coach of the Year almost always goes to teams with middling level talent who do much better than last year. That’s the formula. Coaches on perennial winners just don’t get the same credit regardless of what happens during the season. 

For a lot of these sports awards what you’re trying to do is avoid obvious (if ridiculous) arguments against you…people forced to one choice will embrace any excuse to eliminate candidates. Take for instance CMC putting up 1900 yards and not even making the Pro Bowl, because voters had the ~ excuse that it was on 2 teams.
 

That’s not a real reason of course, but we’re not talking real reasons, we’re talking ANY reason to make choosing only X number amongst a bigger number of candidates. Same with coaching…if they can say you’re loaded, or you’ve got a GOAT candidate QB, that’s enough reason to bump you. That’s why the greatest coaches of all time win relatively few COTY awards, because they’re routinely good which is enough reason to give it to someone else every year. 

Edited January 17 by James Arryn

[Tywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Mexal said:

Can you point me to their commentary? I'm curious on their language + timing.

I gave you plenty of reasons why it goes beyond Burrow and you basically hand waved it like it's unimportant. So, what more do you need to see to recognize him being more than mediocre? What would convince you? Mina waxing poetic about Zac Taylor?

I just tend to think this is what you find when looking for grades of the man:

Quote

22. ZAC TAYLOR, CINCINNATI BENGALS (8.4 – 8.6 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)

Offensive Rank: 21/26 (+7 points scored a season)

Defensive Rank: 24/26 (+13 points allowed a season)

By the data, it is difficult to call Taylor’s regime in Cincinnati a success despite his postseason resume. The estimate suggests that Taylor is riding off the high of the tremendous amount of talent the Bengals have amassed in recent years.

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2022/6/9/23160306/nfl-coach-rankings-2022-pff-bengals-zac-taylor-coaches

Granted, it's six months old, but pretty much everything that isn't pro-Bengals says more or less the same thing, that it has a lot more to do with the talent than the coach or scheme.

[Mexal]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I just tend to think this is what you find when looking for grades of the man:

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2022/6/9/23160306/nfl-coach-rankings-2022-pff-bengals-zac-taylor-coaches

Granted, it's six months old, but pretty much everything that isn't pro-Bengals says more or less the same thing, that it has a lot more to do with the talent than the coach or scheme.

Yea, I get that. I mean, this covers 3 years, one of which was good, two of which lead us to a 6-24-1 record. So yea, that will be skewed. It ignores this season completely and it only focuses on "analytics" which had Kliff Kingsbury as #4, Frank Reich #9, McCarthy #10, Staley #12... I mean sure, I guess we can buy this but... it ain't looking good for a number of these coaches and the list goes on of HCs that are failing all the way up to #22.

I think the things that get lost in assessments of Head Coaches is culture, midseason adjustments, organizational skills, player development, roster building - things that are so hard to measure but clearly contribute to consistent success. You can have the best offensive minds in the league become a head coach but if they can't actually do HC stuff instead of OC stuff, they fail miserably. 

Anyway, it doesn't matter. My questions to you are more driven by the fact that you keep calling Taylor average at best and I like to get to the heart of why someone thinks something that's so clearly wrong to someone who has watched a mediocre team languish in mediocrity for 30 years become a team that can beat anyone, that is consistent, that adjusts when necessary, that shows insane mental strength, that plays for each other and that is built around high character players that just keep getting better. Maybe it's all Joe Burrow, I don't know, but I tend to believe it's not.

Edited January 18 by Mexal

[Rhom]

Tennessee hires Niners director of player personnel Ran Carthon as GM.

So I have no clue was his job duties were for SF; but I know we’re getting another comp pick because he got hired!

[DMC]

Yeah this now means if Ryans is hired by someone else this offseason, since it's the same cycle, the Niners would only get one additional comp pick in 2025.

[James Arryn]

5 hours ago, Rhom said:

Tennessee hires Niners director of player personnel Ran Carthon as GM.

So I have no clue was his job duties were for SF; but I know we’re getting another comp pick because he got hired!

Hearing at least a 3rd rounder, so that’ll be 3 thirds this year.

On the downside, DeMeco is flying to interview for 2 different head coaching spots this Thursday and Friday…

Edited January 18 by James Arryn

[Rhom]

10 hours ago, DMC said:

Yeah this now means if Ryans is hired by someone else this offseason, since it's the same cycle, the Niners would only get one additional comp pick in 2025.

I just read that.  Unfortunate.  Guess we'll just need him to stay until next year.   

 

 

 

[James Arryn]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

I just read that.  Unfortunate.  Guess we'll just need him to stay until next year.  /cdn-cgi/mirage/e7cdc3d1b42064bbcb7493ddaf3c1b2d3511a1895af109f2c96f899ee8a13be4/1440/https://asoiaf.westeros.org/uploads/emoticons/default_lol.gif 

 

 

 

Lombardi is very informative and writes pretty good pieces, and I follow him and all, but his angle on 49ers related subjects comes off almost as though he were a 49er PR guy. I know in sports journalism the choice is often ~ insider information or objective criticism, and he also serves as something of a safe space from extreme hot takes, so I like having his perspective available alongside those who are probably less informed but more capable of criticism when warranted.
 

The other extreme is Cohn, who can get annoyingly ‘it’s about me’ with his takes and open desire to be a polemicist, but also can provide or foster space within which legit concerns (alongside imo plenty of illegitimate ones) can be expressed and discussed. I value the access to this extreme too, but tbh I have to be more in the right kind of mood to want to listen to his takes. He’s got enough personality to become a tv football round table/panel guy, and in the vein of a lot of higher profile of those that personality is probably going to trend towards love/hate controversy generation. 
 

Here ends my questionably relevant and almost certainly unnecessary lecture on the ethical and aesthetic state of 49ers content providers. In my defence, sick twins has meant very little sleep recently. 

Edited January 18 by James Arryn

[DMC]

3 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Lombardi is very informative and writes pretty good pieces, and I follow him and all, but his angle on 49ers related subjects comes off almost as though he were a 49er PR guy.

I'm not very familiar with Lombardi but his point about having 11 picks despite the Lance and CMC trades is just a basic fact I emphasized immediately following the CMC trade (albeit I was more sure Ryans would net them an additional 3rd round comp pick this year rather than Carthan). 

They are in very good shape with comp picks.  Been looking at free agents from next year, and while Purdy's emergence greatly helps since they won't have to spend on a QB, they will still probably lose Ebukam, Al-Shaair, one guy in the secondary (Jimmie Ward, Moseley and Gibson are all free agents), and of course Garoppolo.  Considering they aren't likely to be too active signing other free agents, that should net them quite a few more comp picks next year.

His point about the picks this year being 3rd round comps and lower being "good" is a little much, but it is true they are still in excellent shape to plug in these anticipated holes via the draft.  And it is a decent point that ShanaLynch so far have been by far most successful in the draft in the mid-to-late rounds.  Overall, the Niners longterm roster management is outstanding.

[James Arryn]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

I'm not very familiar with Lombardi but his point about having 11 picks despite the Lance and CMC trades is just a basic fact I emphasized immediately following the CMC trade (albeit I was more sure Ryans would net them an additional 3rd round comp pick this year rather than Carthan). 

They are in very good shape with comp picks.  Been looking at free agents from next year, and while Purdy's emergence greatly helps since they won't have to spend on a QB, they will still probably lose Ebukam, Al-Shaair, one guy in the secondary (Jimmie Ward, Moseley and Gibson are all free agents), and of course Garoppolo.  Considering they aren't likely to be too active signing other free agents, that should net them quite a few more comp picks next year.

His point about the picks this year being 3rd round comps and lower being "good" is a little much, but it is true they are still in excellent shape to plug in these anticipated holes via the draft.  And it is a decent point that ShanaLynch so far have been by far most successful in the draft in the mid-to-late rounds.  Overall, the Niners longterm roster management is outstanding.

Yeah, he was not here (or even normally otherwise) saying anything ridiculous, that’s what I mean by feeling he’s pretty grounded, but he always leans into it in the same direction, like taking the late round picks and looking at the upside of that as though it’s what you want. It’s…not wrong, completely, and it’s surrounded by solid information, but it’s always that kind of spin that you know is what the 49ers would want put out there if they bothered to try and shape opinion, though it’s never outright wrong. 
 

To his credit he stays grounded while reaping the access team-friendly beaters get. This wasn’t a particularly egregious example, it’s just that while I was watching him talk about the picks I was already waiting for that extra nudge, and got it. But he’s definitely worth following, he’s a good writer (he’s the guy who did that piece on Bosa meeting Williams after every game to talk technique a week or so ago, for example) but like I said, there are enough 9er content guys that I can pick different sources for different kinds of input. Habermann and Middlecauf have their detractors, but I like them for just general your-buddy-who-happens-to-really-know-football vibe, and even though one of them was an NFL scout they don’t try and come across as football guys or insiders, I like Sherman or Crocker for ex-player takes and connections, johnnydel for scheme stuff, a relatively unknown guy who breaks film down well is Jack Hammer, though he’s not the most personally dynamic guy, etc. 

Edited January 18 by James Arryn

[Rhom]

Never change Andy.  

[Tywin et al.]

On 1/17/2023 at 7:28 PM, Mexal said:

Yea, I get that. I mean, this covers 3 years, one of which was good, two of which lead us to a 6-24-1 record. So yea, that will be skewed. It ignores this season completely and it only focuses on "analytics" which had Kliff Kingsbury as #4, Frank Reich #9, McCarthy #10, Staley #12... I mean sure, I guess we can buy this but... it ain't looking good for a number of these coaches and the list goes on of HCs that are failing all the way up to #22.

Which is fair. Again, I told you I looked and tried to find something which would change my mind on top of the arguments you've made. I didn't find anything about this season really, so what I had to go off of was the poor record for the first two years and a third year that was successful, but the numbers were very middle of the road. And this year they are better. No one is debating that I believe. I just don't give the coach that much of the credit. But then again I don't think most coaches deserve that much credit unless there's something clear and obvious that you can point to they do that makes their team better than it otherwise would be with an average coach.
 

Quote

I think the things that get lost in assessments of Head Coaches is culture, midseason adjustments, organizational skills, player development, roster building - things that are so hard to measure but clearly contribute to consistent success. You can have the best offensive minds in the league become a head coach but if they can't actually do HC stuff instead of OC stuff, they fail miserably. 

Zimmer comes to mind here. 

Quote

Anyway, it doesn't matter. My questions to you are more driven by the fact that you keep calling Taylor average at best and I like to get to the heart of why someone thinks something that's so clearly wrong to someone who has watched a mediocre team languish in mediocrity for 30 years become a team that can beat anyone, that is consistent, that adjusts when necessary, that shows insane mental strength, that plays for each other and that is built around high character players that just keep getting better. Maybe it's all Joe Burrow, I don't know, but I tend to believe it's not.

By admission you're grading on a horrible curve. The Bengals have been a joke for most of your fandom and the few bright spots have ended in heartbreak. This legit seems different and I genuinely hope it goes well. I just don't think the coach gets that much of the pie chart even if you can argue he's gone from bottom third to decent. I really believe in Burrow, and he came ready made. He needed a coach and organization that didn't fuck things up, and I guess in that sense Taylor and the Bengals have done a good job the last two years.

[Tywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Never change Andy.  

I'd pay good money to watch him eat weird German food.

@A Horse Named Stranger, what ya got? German food on the high end is excellent, but your lot does do some really strange shit too.

(German pastries > French pastries, and I say that as a fan of crepes). 

[Rhom]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'd pay good money to watch him eat weird German food.

@A Horse Named Stranger, what ya got? German food on the high end is excellent, but your lot does do some really strange shit too.

(German pastries > French pastries, and I say that as a fan of crepes). 

I was in Hamburg in 2019.  Went to a local restaurant that was more of a pub.  The waitress was older and didn’t speak great English.  I saw a “Pork Knuckle” on the menu and we tried to cross the language barrier while I tried to find out what part of the pig they considered the “knuckle.” Eventually she pointed to her knee.    It was delicious.

[Tywin et al.]

18 minutes ago, Rhom said:

I was in Hamburg in 2019.  Went to a local restaurant that was more of a pub.  The waitress was older and didn’t speak great English.  I saw a “Pork Knuckle” on the menu and we tried to cross the language barrier while I tried to find out what part of the pig they considered the “knuckle.” Eventually she pointed to her knee.    It was delicious.

I've always heard that's pretty good when cooked right. It's some of the raw meat dishes that make my eyes bug out when seeing them. But like I did say, a lot of German foot is excellent. Just not that shit as far as the eye test goes. Also blood sausages suck. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I've always heard that's pretty good when cooked right. It's some of the raw meat dishes that make my eyes bug out when seeing them. But like I did say, a lot of German foot is excellent. Just not that shit as far as the eye test goes. Also blood sausages suck. 

I assume he ordered "Eisbein" (ham hock (?)). If so, I assure you it was cooked. 

Also, didn't know about your feet fetish, tell us more.

Anyway the weirder choices of food have gone extinct a few generation ago. I mean, I don't know anybody who has ever enjoyed a cockchafer soup.