Jon Snow is likely to go insane

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

I'm sorry Lyanna

Thanks Hugor! Life is tough, gotta wear a helmet. 

[Bowen 747]

On 1/14/2023 at 9:24 AM, Damsel in Distress said:

I posted a comment on this in 2017. 

If R + L = J is true, then Jon Snow is the one who will go insane.  He will have incidences of insanity from the Stark as well as the Targaryen side.  His kin, Arya Stark, is already insane. 

 

I edited, updated, and re-posted below:

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Rumors of Targaryen Madness is an Exaggeration.  And a slander against the ruling House Targaryen. 

 

The prevalence of the madness that runs in the family is exaggerated.  A careful study of the Targaryen lineage shows that this madness is not as prevalent as their enemies would have us believe.

 

    Targaryen + Targaryen = Maegor the Cruel
    Arryn + Targaryen = Rhaenyra
    Hightower + Targaryen = Aegon II
    Rogare + Targaryen = Aegon IV
    Velaryon + Targaryen = Baelor the Blessed
    Dayne + Targaryen = Aerion Brightflame
    Kiera + Targaryen = Vaela
    Targaryen + Targaryen = Aerys II

 

In red - female parent. Non-Targaryen female parent. 

Italics – unclear whether these people were mad or simply just cruel. Vaela is likely someone who just had a below average mental capacity. 

What interests me most is that the majority of the so-called “mad” members of the family were not the direct result of T + T but rather the result of what appears to be normal pairings.  A second item of note is that the madness happens more often when the mother comes from outside the family.  This means the carriers of the madness are the male Targaryens.  Thirdly, because we are dealing with a fantasy world in which real genetics may not completely hold true, we can assume that anyone whose father is a Targaryen will have an equal chance of going mad as any other member of the family with a Targaryen father.  Also note that we have not had a female Targaryen of whom we can clearly point out as mad.  None.  Rhaenyra was a b* but being a difficult person does not make one mad.  Maegor was cruel but that doesn’t mean he was mad.  If cruelty alone make one mad then Tywin and Stannis could be labeled insane. 

 

Implications are as follows:

 

    1.  The Targaryens are the most prominent family in the series of A Song of Ice and Fire.  I do not believe George R R Martin will end this family line.  I think the family just needed a fresh start and based on my theory that the males carry the potentially damaging gene it makes sense to eliminate the male line and begin anew with a perfect Targaryen female.  Who is, of course, the Mother of Dragons herself, Daenerys Targaryen.
    2.  The Targaryen dragons also needed a refresh.  The heroine delivered once more and hatched three eggs.
    3.  Daenerys Targaryen is just fine.  She will not go mad.  Her future children are not going to go mad. 
    4.  Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon.  Should this theory of his parentage prove to be true, that Rhaegar is the father and Lyanna Stark the mother, it is very likely that it will be Jon who will go insane.

 My verdict?  Jon has a much greater chance of going mad than Daenerys. 

Been said pretty much by everyone.  Jon being male puts him at the highest risk for going insane if he is the child of Lyanna and Rhaegar.  It seems the data implies Targaryen + Targaryen do not increase the chances but rather reduces the likelihood of the child going mad. 

[Craving Peaches]

4 hours ago, Bowen 747 said:

Been said pretty much by everyone.

Yeah, everyone who hates Jon and doesn't read the text properly.

[LongRider]

On 2/2/2023 at 12:06 AM, Craving Peaches said:

Yeah, everyone who hates Jon and doesn't read the text properly.

Stark + Targ = AWSOME!     And definitely not insane.  

[James West]

On 2/1/2023 at 10:17 PM, Bowen 747 said:

Been said pretty much by everyone.  Jon being male puts him at the highest risk for going insane if he is the child of Lyanna and Rhaegar.  It seems the data implies Targaryen + Targaryen do not increase the chances but rather reduces the likelihood of the child going mad. 

Valyria would not have ruled for 5000 years if their leading families were going crazy.  The Dragonlords and their families were close to genetic perfection.  

[Craving Peaches]

3 hours ago, James West said:

their leading families were going crazy

The Targaryens weren't really one of the leading families though, were they?

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

21 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

The Targaryens weren't really one of the leading families though, were they?

Oh I think they definitely used to be. They were the ruling family. But the leading family didn't go insane, just a few of them 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Lyanna<3Rhaegar

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

Oh I think they definitely used to be. They were the ruling family. But the leading family didn't go insane, just a few of them 

I think Craving was referring to Valyria, that the Targs weren’t top dogs there back in the day.

[Craving Peaches]

39 minutes ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

Oh I think they definitely used to be. They were the ruling family. But the leading family didn't go insane, just a few of them 

 

30 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I think Craving was referring to Valyria, that the Targs weren’t top dogs there back in the day.

Yes, sorry I should have clarified, I don't think the Targaryens were one of the leading families in Valyria given the wiki says they were not considered a powerful house in Valyria (from TWoIaF).

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

 

Yes, sorry I should have clarified, I don't think the Targaryens were one of the leading families in Valyria given the wiki says they were not considered a powerful house in Valyria (from TWoIaF).

Sorry! I suppose I could've read the comments

[Roswell]

On 1/14/2023 at 9:24 AM, Damsel in Distress said:

My verdict?  Jon has a much greater chance of going mad than Daenerys. 

Jon has the same chances as any Targaryen of going insane. 

[Darth Sidious]

On 2/6/2023 at 5:59 AM, James West said:

Valyria would not have ruled for 5000 years if their leading families were going crazy.  The Dragonlords and their families were close to genetic perfection.  

Those Dragonlords built an empire and controlled dragons. They could never have done that if they suffered a high percentage of mental illness. The incidence of mental illness is exaggerated. And only the males seem to succumb to the illness.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

On 2/6/2023 at 4:55 PM, Roswell said:

Jon has the same chances as any Targaryen of going insane. 

You gonna tell us why you think that? Or just going to state it as fact, even though it isn't? 

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 1/15/2023 at 8:56 PM, Sydney Mae said:

He already appears to lose his sanity to the men who were there at the meeting.  A black brother revealing what he did would look like a lunatic to the audience. 

Yes. To all of the black brothers his behavior and his intent to attack the Boltons is madness. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

2 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Yes. To all of the black brothers his behavior and his intent to attack the Boltons is madness. 

Oh, I know you've been around long enough to know better. We've not had the opinion of all the black brothers and there is zero reason to think Marsh stands with the majority. Secondly, if his decision to attack the Boltons looked like madness to some of them, maybe they ought reconsider their priorities because it seems like a pretty sane decision to me. 

[LongRider]

1 hour ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

We've not had the opinion of all the black brothers and there is zero reason to think Marsh stands with the majority. Secondly, if his decision to attack the Boltons looked like madness to some of them, maybe they ought reconsider their priorities because it seems like a pretty sane decision to me. 

Let's not forgot, Jon stated he would not ask his brothers to break their vows, 

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned....snip … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

"The Night's Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless …" Jon paused. "… is there any man here who will come stand with me?"

If any black brother did not agree with Jon, they would go to Hardhome, and only if they wanted to, would they ride with Jon, it was not a command, but an ask. If they thought he was 'mad', no harm no foul.  Except for traitor Marsh and his minions.   

[the trees have eyes]

6 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Yes. To all of the black brothers his behavior and his intent to attack the Boltons is madness. 

Which part?  After he read out the pink letter his intent to attack the Boltons appears exactly as it is: a move to gain the tactical advantage in view of Ramsay's threats.  Or do you mean his behaviour in sending The Watch to Hardhome?  Maybe  you think Chett and his pals a fine bunch of heroes for planning to murder Mormont and the other officers for "the madness" of their orders too.  At some point the penny has to drop you're backing the wrong side.

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

On 1/28/2023 at 3:17 AM, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said:

If we are talking symbolism you may be right. But the genetic aspect of your most is just factually wrong. If Jon or Dany has the gene in them, it is certainly Dany. She Is the inbred offspring of a batshit crazy father raping a traumatized mother. Whilst Jon has more genetic variance with stout Northern genes mixed with inbred Targaryen genes. Neither will go insane though, so the argument Is irrelevant.

From the looks of it, Jon was headed in the direction of going batshit crazy during his last hours.  What he was about to carry out, a savage attack on Ramsay Bolton, would have destroyed all the credibility and honor of the Night's Watch.  Jon's honor, credibility, competence, and trustworthiness are already damaged beyond repair.  How fitting if he should fall over the edge and into madness. 

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

15 minutes ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

From the looks of it, Jon was headed in the direction of going batshit crazy during his last hours.  What he was about to carry out, a savage attack on Ramsay Bolton, would have destroyed all the credibility and honor of the Night's Watch.  Jon's honor, credibility, competence, and trustworthiness are already damaged beyond repair.  How fitting if he should fall over the edge and into madness. 

Ah yes the poor good Lord Ramsay, bringer of peace and justice to the North. The same good lord that threatened the Night’s Watch with obliteration because his abused wife ran away from him? That Ramsay Bolton?

it must be hard to get to and from places without a leg to stand on.

[LongRider]

Inheritance is a numbers game of percentages.  To figure out the numbers it helps to have a large sample size and good historical data of who had gene expression the trait in question. 
 

For instance, I’m not sure if our sample size answers the question of does the trait express with one gene from one parent, or must both parents be carriers of trait to pass it on to offspring. 
 

It can be difficult to determine the heritability if the sample size is too small.  Also, the crazy Targs in question were extremely inbred, and Lyanna would introduce a new gene pool that that has not produced the traits in question, so the chance of her offspring inheriting them from the father in question, could be vanishingly small.