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I hate the Tyrells for what happened to Renly.


Maegor_the_Cool

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4 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

What makes you believe that?

I liked Robb, but his political moves were rather stupid. Sending Theon home, before Balon agreed to the alliance was very stupid. Sending the River Lords home was pretty stupid too and not telling Edmure all of his plans.

Though breaking his marriage pact and marrying into one of his enemies families and a weak one at that, might be one of the dumbest moves in the series. It still doesn't even fully make sense to me; like why is Jeyne even healing Robb? Wouldn't Robb have his own maester or healer, while out in the field. If he didn't have his own healer, surely one of his bannermen would have one or more. The lords of the North, just trusted, the health and welling being of their king, to a lady, from an enemy house?

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8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but that's Loras showing he knows stuff about horses - which should be a given for one of the greatest knights of his generation. He acts within his field of expertise there. He is not dumb in general, just not really politically savvy or particularly good at manipulation or at detecting when he is played (e.g. folks convincing him to join Joff's KG, Cersei getting him to volunteer to take Dragonstone).

Or perhaps he even detected he was played in the Dragonstone incident - but he didn't care, believing himself to be invincible, anyway.

Agree with your response to my post, mostly, just not as definitive as you are atm, but my opinion on this vacillates at times. 
 

About Loras here, I generally think the roses keep their thorns hidden, and in general assume there is more to them than meets the eye, very gifted family. Even Mace I’m halfway convinced is sandbagging.

 

My take on Dragonstone is pretty much like your last line, except I think it was part feeling ~ invincible, partly thinking the need was just that dire it needed to be done ASAP and not trusting Cersei or her minions to get it done. I think Cersei’s desire to get him to go would have been pretty incidental to him at that point, his greater fear would have been her tying his hands and happily watching as the Reach burns.

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27 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I don't think we have any solid evidence of Margaery being a schemer in the books, though. 

She wanted to marry Sansa to her older brother and she screws with Cersei a few times in AFFC.

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11 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

About Loras here, I generally think the roses keep their thorns hidden, and in general assume there is more to them than meets the eye, very gifted family. Even Mace I’m halfway convinced is sandbagging.

I agree there. The Tyrells are very subtle. But Loras isn't. If Olenna/Margaery/Alerie had trusted him with Joff's murder then he could have played a much more prominent role - or rather: a role at all. After all, he is a Kingsguard. With him involved, they might have been able to off Joffrey in his sleep or arrange an accident involving a horse or having the king fall down some steps. The elaborate scheme makes only sense if Loras isn't in on it at all - and that's also what Littlefinger indicated (Olenna deciding to murder Joff because Loras as a KG might eventually create another Kingslayer).

On the other hand, you can make a case that Mace may have been in on it (I don't think he was, but you can make a case). He really pushes for Tyrion's guilt and execution, after all, which would be the perfect way to distract Tywin and Oberyn from looking for other suspects.

Mace is certainly not a moron - his ambition and greed are very real. He is the one who wants Margaery to be queen (after the Renly deal was made), he is the one who pushed for the Lannister deal, he wants to be Hand, etc.

Garlan is also very suspect, being the guy buttering up Tyrion all the time, showing his subtler side when he wore Renly's armor at the Blackwater. He is my main suspect for putting the poison into the chalice - he or his wife. Olenna is just to small to actually pull it off.

11 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

My take on Dragonstone is pretty much like your last line, except I think it was part feeling ~ invincible, partly thinking the need was just that dire it needed to be done ASAP and not trusting Cersei or her minions to get it done. I think Cersei’s desire to get him to go would have been pretty incidental to him at that point, his greater fear would have been her tying his hands and happily watching as the Reach burns.

Loras definitely understands that the Redwynes need to be free to fight the Ironborn, etc. But he doesn't understand or considers that Cersei might actually hurt Margaery in his absence. He also doesn't think about simply defying Cersei and telling Paxter to just sail down to the Arbor. After all, the Redwyne fleet is the Redwyne fleet, and not the royal fleet. The ships belong to House Redwyne. Paxter isn't even Master of Ships at the time. He could do whatever the hell he wants with his ships, and the Iron Throne couldn't really do anything about it, if push came to shove.

One imagines Margaery would have thought along those lines, refusing to accept Cersei's arguments and playing her game. But Loras just rushed into it, not seeing the bigger picture.

That's not the measure of a man we would call a schemer or even a politician. Considering the likely education of Willas and also Garlan Loras' problems might have less to do with his training and more with his youth. But then - Loras did squire with Renly, meaning he wasn't at Highgarden for many of his formative years whilst Willas and Garlan may have been both squires there, allowing Olenna and Alerie and hypothetical subtler uncles and aunts to train them.

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I don't think we have any solid evidence of Margaery being a schemer in the books, though. 

Not a great a schemer, but a schemer nonetheless. She knows how to keep secrets, knows how to play her role without letting anything slip, and she is very perceptive. She was clearly part of the conspiracy to murder Joffrey.

Loras, on the other hand, seems to be genuinely more or less just a very beautiful and charming youth whose interests revolve mostly around chivalric and knightly stuff.

34 minutes ago, sifth said:

She wanted to marry Sansa to her older brother and she screws with Cersei a few times in AFFC.

Yes, both her involvement in the Willas plot - which means Olenna trusts her with that knowledge unlike, you know, Loras - as well as her reaction thereafter (dropping Sansa completely) means she knows how the game of courtly intrigue is played.

Her subtler remarks towards Cersei in AFfC also show how perceptive and educated she is - think of how she catches Cersei with her remarks about Tommen's dad being a great tourney champion. Then the way she tries to use Loras and her companions to estrange Tommen from his mother. Also, of course, the act she maintains when Cersei visits her in her cell ... until she has confirmation that Cersei is behind the whole thing and then she drops the act completely.

The Epilogue also reinforced the fact that a crucial part of the chilly atmosphere is the hatred of the queens for each other. No idea what plans George has for Margaery, but I think both Cersei and we readers will see both her and Mace showing their true colors in the aftermath of the double murder in Cersei 1. I mean, I think we can be pretty sure that the whole 'Cersei is going to be the last to learn about the murders' from Cersei 1 in AFfC will be repeated again. Back then she was the Queen Regent and rightfully pissed that apparently people informed everybody else before waking her ... but now she is effectively a prisoner in house arrest. She will be last to be informed, it cannot be any other way ... and the people doing it might very well be Margaery and Mace bursting into her apartments after the new Lord Regent (Mace) has already been installed.

If George wants to really add some flavor there he might even have Margaery eventually tell Cersei the truth about Joffrey's death. She might be inclined to do that if she deems herself in a position where Cersei is completely at her and Mace's mercy. And it will be interesting to see what the whole stint in Baelor's Sept did to her. I could see her seething with anger, especially if her cousins were pretty traumatized by the experience.

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5 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I don't think we have any solid evidence of Margaery being a schemer in the books, though. 

She had to have been part of the plot to kill Joffrey (no one would want her drinking the poisoned wine by mistake),  It must take nerves of steel to exchange vows with someone who you know is about to be poisoned.

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7 hours ago, SeanF said:

She had to have been part of the plot to kill Joffrey (no one would want her drinking the poisoned wine by mistake),  It must take nerves of steel to exchange vows with someone who you know is about to be poisoned.

Even so, Olenna would have been the main architect of it, just like the plot to marry Sansa to Willas.

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15 hours ago, sifth said:

I liked Robb, but his political moves were rather stupid. Sending Theon home, before Balon agreed to the alliance was very stupid. Sending the River Lords home was pretty stupid too and not telling Edmure all of his plans.

Though breaking his marriage pact and marrying into one of his enemies families and a weak one at that, might be one of the dumbest moves in the series. It still doesn't even fully make sense to me; like why is Jeyne even healing Robb? Wouldn't Robb have his own maester or healer, while out in the field. If he didn't have his own healer, surely one of his bannermen would have one or more. The lords of the North, just trusted, the health and welling being of their king, to a lady, from an enemy house?

I think it all comes down to Robb being young and inexperienced. He would definitely have been a better ruler once he reached Renly's age.

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8 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I think it all comes down to Robb being young and inexperienced. He would definitely have been a better ruler once he reached Renly's age.

I don't know, he seems to have this really rigid idea of honour he's inherited from Ned, as seen with the Jeyne incident.

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5 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I don't know, he seems to have this really rigid idea of honour he's inherited from Ned, as seen with the Jeyne incident.

Ned never informed him, that sometimes respecting one persons honor, might hurt another persons honor.

Though why enemy forces were healing the King in the North, doesn’t make much sense to me.

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12 minutes ago, sifth said:

Ned never informed him, that sometimes respecting one persons honor, might hurt another persons honor.

Another issue is that Ned was willing to plunge the realm into war because of his honour. Now admittedly war broke out anyway, but still... innocent lives should come before honour, if you really want to do the right thing.

13 minutes ago, sifth said:

Though why enemy forces were healing the King in the North, doesn’t make much sense to me.

Yeah that whole story is suspect. Maybe more will be revealed next book.

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Just now, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I think Ned was a good ruler per se, he just couldn't handle the court intrigues in King's Landing. 

He was certainly a good ruler of the North. But his blind adherence to honour in most cases is a weakness enemies will take advantage of. Being able to handle court intrigues is part of being a good ruler.

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3 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Even so, Olenna would have been the main architect of it, just like the plot to marry Sansa to Willas.

Olenna wouldn't have been able to murder Joff if Margaery had insisted she wanted to be his queen. In context it strikes me as not unlikely that the Sansa interview was something Margaery instigated because she wanted to be certain that Joff deserved to be killed. Olenna wanted to double-check, too, of course, but Margaery is the more central figure there.

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

@Lord Varys I have the feeling that gloating over Cersei would turn out to be fatal for Margaery 

Eventually, sure. But imagine Cersei waking from another nightmare to Mace and Margaery and a dozen of guardsmen bursting into her bedchamber, dragging her out of her bed, marching her into the tower cell in Maegor's Cersei kept Sansa in AGoT (which is how George would most likely do it), telling her that uncle and Pycelle are dead, the Tyrells are in control of Tommen's person and his government now, and they view her as the likely instigator of the murder.

She might also be somewhat angry but her main emotion will be fear. Fear for her life, fear for Tommen's life. She will know she didn't instigate the double murder so the Tyrells themselves (with Tyrion helping from 'inside the walls') must have been behind it. And if they were doing this, they would most likely also want to kill her and Tommen and Myrcella. Even if they said they don't want that.

Although as I tried to hint at above - Margaery might very well drop all pretense if she and her father basically control Cersei's person, throwing her in a cell. That this might mean Cersei will even have more motivation to get back at her is clear. But it will take a long time to actually build the power to threaten them again.

19 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

He was certainly a good ruler of the North. But his blind adherence to honour in most cases is a weakness enemies will take advantage of. Being able to handle court intrigues is part of being a good ruler.

Ned is actually not that bad with pretense and intrigue. His 'lord's face' is ample proof of that. His problem mainly is that he doesn't want to rule the Seven Kingdoms, doesn't even want to be in KL. He is always haunted by the feeling that his place is in the North - it might even be residual effects of Bloodraven trying to reach out to him - and whenever an opportunity presents itself which gives him the opportunity to return home or to hand power to somebody else he takes it.

His main reason, I think, for wanting to hand the crown to Stannis is not that it is the right thing to do - although he also thinks that -, it is that this will allow him to return to Winterfell since Stannis won't be needing a regent and will most definitely name his own Hand.

It is this desire that blinds Ned to the danger he and his family are in. It was madness to overlook the fact that Littlefinger won't thrive under a King Stannis ... and unlike Ned he most definitely doesn't want to return to his shitty home on the Fingers.

If Ned had made his peace that his place was in KL, etc. he would have done a good job. He also never expected to be Lord of Winterfell, was never groomed to rule the North, but he still did a pretty good job at that.

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16 hours ago, sifth said:

I liked Robb, but his political moves were rather stupid. ... (1) Sending the River Lords home was pretty stupid too and (2) not telling Edmure all of his plans.

 

1) Edmure & the other riverlords petitioned Robb to be allowed to disperse and defend their own lands. Cat & the Blackfish both initially thought this was a bad idea, because they were expecting Robb to move East to engage Tywin’s larger army at Harranhal, and the Riverlords would have been needed to reduce Robb’s disadvantage against Tywin.

 

Because Robb instead rode West with a small and mobile mounted force he did not need the riverlords gathered together. So it was not a bad idea to free the riverlords to defend their lands against the small groups of Lannister raiders.

 

2) I think conflicting actions of Robb & Edmure can be chalked up to the fog of war - miscommunication is a common risk in war, especially over long distances, and in changing circumstances. When Robb and Edmure were last in a room together it was believed that Tywin’s main force would remain in Harranhal, because Renly at Bitterbridge posed a threat to Kings Landing , denying Tywin freedom of movement. None of the factions could have  anticipated that Stannis would move against Renly, freeing Tywin to move West – and the plans Robb & Edmure separately made were in response to Tywin’s move.

 

But if we want to place fault for Robb & Edmure not communicating, then I say the fault should be laid on Edmure. Both made plans to meet Tywin in the field:

  • Robb’s plan relied on the riverlords defending their own castles, without stopping Tywin’s army move through the Riverlands into the West – that is, Robb relied on Edmure continuing to do what Edmure had been doing when they were last together.
  • Edmure’s plan involved recalling his army to defend the fords; then having Robb’s army return from the West to trap Tywin – a plan which he had not communicated to Robb even though it would require Robb to move his forces to close the trap!
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47 minutes ago, Buried Treasure said:

1) Edmure & the other riverlords petitioned Robb to be allowed to disperse and defend their own lands. Cat & the Blackfish both initially thought this was a bad idea, because they were expecting Robb to move East to engage Tywin’s larger army at Harranhal, and the Riverlords would have been needed to reduce Robb’s disadvantage against Tywin.

 

Because Robb instead rode West with a small and mobile mounted force he did not need the riverlords gathered together. So it was not a bad idea to free the riverlords to defend their lands against the small groups of Lannister raiders.

 

2) I think conflicting actions of Robb & Edmure can be chalked up to the fog of war - miscommunication is a common risk in war, especially over long distances, and in changing circumstances. When Robb and Edmure were last in a room together it was believed that Tywin’s main force would remain in Harranhal, because Renly at Bitterbridge posed a threat to Kings Landing , denying Tywin freedom of movement. None of the factions could have  anticipated that Stannis would move against Renly, freeing Tywin to move West – and the plans Robb & Edmure separately made were in response to Tywin’s move.

 

But if we want to place fault for Robb & Edmure not communicating, then I say the fault should be laid on Edmure. Both made plans to meet Tywin in the field:

  • Robb’s plan relied on the riverlords defending their own castles, without stopping Tywin’s army move through the Riverlands into the West – that is, Robb relied on Edmure continuing to do what Edmure had been doing when they were last together.
  • Edmure’s plan involved recalling his army to defend the fords; then having Robb’s army return from the West to trap Tywin – a plan which he had not communicated to Robb even though it would require Robb to move his forces to close the trap!

Yea, but had Robb taken the River Lords with him, Edmure's stupid "Battle of the Fords" never happens and he has more men to use against Tywin, when he falls for his trap. I just don't understand the logic of invading the Western Lands, with such a small force.

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1 hour ago, sifth said:

Yea, but had Robb taken the River Lords with him, Edmure's stupid "Battle of the Forges" never happens and he has more men to use against Tywin, when he falls for his trap. I just don't understand the logic of invading the Western Lands, with such a small force.

The logic of going West with a small force was speed and agility. He took only cavalry, so any Riverland foot troops would need to have been left behind anyway - and if not planning to use an army it can be better to disband it than have a bunch of men in one camp.

I don't know if he could have taken a slightly larger cavalry force, but larger looses manoeuvrability and the element of suprise. He took a raiding force, so any opposition that was too big he would simply ride away from until a different day when he had advantage. And having a larger force to use against Tywin wasn't a consideration when Robb first went West - as I said in my previous post Tywin was not expected to move West because of the need to counter Renly.

 

I agree adding just Edmure to the force that went West would have prevented the defence of the Fords - no other riverlord had the authority to redeploy the riverlord armies as Edmure did. But there were other considerations in Edmure not being included in the Robb's army - not least Hoster being on his deathbed.

 

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Robb had no inclination what kingship meant when his stupid lords proclaimed him. He was a pretty good general, but a lousy king. Considering his age and the fact that nobody actually prepared him for the role of king that's not surprise.

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