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Sansa and Harry the Heir


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9 hours ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

Sansa is actually very smart, I'm not sure where people get the idea that she's dumb. Is it because she can't uncover people's true intentions? That's an extremely difficult feat to achieve. Or is it because she still expects people to act with honor and kindness? Tbf, Ned had that tendency himself. He was distrustful, but assumed people would take the more honorable approach/course. Some people deem her love of romance and stories as stupidity when it's really just a common trait in many people. It's a safe fantasy for a girl her age. She is naive at times, but she's not stupid.

Sansa is extremely well read and educated in history. And she very clearly has an excellent memory as she will bring up historical and literary trivia on a whim's notice, depending on the conversation she is in. She has memorized just about every house and sigil in Westeros. She can read and write better than her two older brothers, she plays two instruments, and she is rightly suspicious of everyone around her. After her father's death, she never takes what is said to her at face value. She analyzes people's behavior and questions their motives. She's surrounded by far more experienced players. She is currently in the hands of the most successful player in the books and she is already beginning to differentiate between Littlefinger and Petyr Baelish. She has moments of boldness and rebellion which is always laced in fear of punishment.

Her story arc is much slower than pretty much everyone else's. In King's Landing, when she wasn't being publicly beaten or scrutinized, she used stories and songs as coping mechanisms. She has more time on her hands to daydream than say Arya, Bran, or Jon. After all, she is completely alone with no one willing to help her for her. Every aid that she receives is in the interest of an experienced player, and she is aware of this. She's just a young girl that's in over her head, surrounded by schemers.

What instruments does Sansa play?

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32 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

What instruments does Sansa play?

High harp and the bells, according to Arya. Catelyn brings it up as well but makes it sound as though she is still receiving lessons.

Quote

"I told her there would be singers at the king's court, though. I told her she would hear music of all sorts, that her father could find some master to help her learn the high harp." -ACOK, Catleyn VI

And then in ASOS Sansa receives lessons on the high harp from Lady Leonette. That makes the most sense to me. A couple acquaintances of mine play the harp and both have said it's difficult to learn.

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1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

I was more or less on board until the third sentence.  I really hate the idea of Sansa as a Littlefinger-in-Training.  I don't want her to become a "Player" of "the Game".  You could be right, but I hope you are wrong.

I don't expect Sansa to become Littlefinger 2.0.  But she is very observant and soaks up knowledge like a sponge.  She has a very different worldview from Littlefinger, so I expect her to use whatever she does learn for very different ends than Littlefinger would.

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1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

First of all, Sansa has a good knowledge of houses and histories, This certainly would include how House Stark managed to get their mountain clans to become peaceful houses of the region. So, I can certainly see her being a character who advocates the rapprochement. A severe wounding of the Andal houses by losing important members as well as Harry, no more Eyrie and damaged Bloody Gate force the Vale to recognize the mountain clans as an actual threat. They won't negotiate unless the threat is real to them.

Timett knows things that Sansa does not yet, via Tyrion. He was a quiet observant in the Red Keep and King's Landing. I'll bet he knows a lot about Littlefinger, possibly even about his lies about the catspaw dagger. Sansa has no clue yet whatsoever about all of this: that her brother was nearly assassinated by a hired catspaw with a VS dagger, that LF lied it was his but lost in a wager against Tyrion, that this was why her mother arrested Tyrion at all, or that LF used that same dagger against her father. Timett wasn't around anymore when Tyrion realized Joff was behind the assassination attempt, but Tyrion knew LF lied about the dagger and betrayed Ned Stark. We don't know how much Timett knows about this, but I wouldn't be surprised he knows some, if not directly from Tyrion, by often being paired with Bronn in KL, and Bronn was a witness to Tyrion's arrest and Cat's claims about the attempt on Bran's life. Moreover, Timett knows Sansa. Tyrion had Timett escort her to safety from Joff's beatings. Timett and Sandor (apart from Tyrion) are two people with knowledge about LF's betrayals, indirectly and directly. And Sansa needs that info to take LF out herself. And I do believe that she will take out LF in the Vale, simultaneously revealing who she truly is.

Yes, in-world the Royces are not at the tourney because of their differences with LF. But that's not the reason why George decided to keep them away from the tourney. I expect Royce to declare himself for Sansa.

 

Sansa is knowledgeable about history and houses, true.  But her education about the Starks and the North ended when she was 11, so her knowledge about the mountain clans could be a bit sketchy.

She and Timett have met, but I don't think they really knew each other.  Timett was long gone by the time she married Tyrion.  I think you may be making Timett more important than he actually is.  

I would expect Sandor to be a more likely source of information than Timett.  Tyrion himself might say something.  I'm pretty sure those two will meet again.  Brynden Tully probably knows some stuff.  And then there's Jeyne Poole.  GRRM didn't put torture marks on her just for kicks.  Something is up, and all clues lead to Littlefinger.  Heaven only knows what information she might have (probably whatever GRRM wants her to have).  And Littlefinger's current and future plans are likely to provide plenty of fodder for Sansa to chew on without even having to delve into the past.

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1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

I was more or less on board until the third sentence.  I really hate the idea of Sansa as a Littlefinger-in-Training.  I don't want her to become a "Player" of "the Game".  You could be right, but I hope you are wrong.

I don't like the idea... but I could see it happening.

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10 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

What do you think will happen in the Vale going forward?

Sansa I

Preps for the tourney.

Sansa II

Littlefinger informs Sansa about the news from the North such as Ramsay’s victory and the death of Stannis (both of which are known to be wrong by the readers but not by Littlefinger or Sansa) and that Jon broke his vows to fight Ramsay. Harry is slain in a “tourney mishap” during the melee. Littlefinger comes up with a plan to get Sansa pregnant and pass the child as Harry’s. He also tells her that this is his price for taking the Vale armies to the North to help Jon against Ramsay. Sansa realizes that it was Littlefinger who arranged Harry’s death. She says no. Littlefinger tries to rape her and the maid slays the savage giant.

Sansa III

With Littlefinger lying dead on the floor, Sansa is in deep trouble. Shadrich breaks in and promises Sansa to take her to Jon for protection. Three Sunderland brothers are with Shadrich. Sansa thinks that she does not have any other direction to go. She agrees. They flee in secrecy and eventually come to the Sisters to find a ship. On the boat, Sansa realizes that she is betrayed. The ship is sailing south instead of north. Sunderlands and Shadrich mean to sell her to Cersei.

This is how I see the Vale wrapping up for Sansa. After Littlefinger's death and Sansa's disappearance, there will be a power vacuum. The Vale will be nominally supporting the Iron Throne but the Vale Lords will remain divided. By the end of TWoW, Stannis will have consolidated the North and at the same time, Dany will have wrapped up Essos and be ready to ferry her troops to Westeros. Elsewhere, fAegon will have gained large domains from the Lannisters whose control will be limited to King's Landing and Casterly Rock.

The allegiance of the Vale will be the major contention between Stannis and Dany, over which they will need to fight a naval war. The Vale Lords will make it clear that only the victor will get their allegiance along with their untouched food reserves and manpower. Stannis will be defeated and return back to the North where the Northmen will abandon him (which will finally make Stannis ready for a certain sacrifice) but I believe Davos will be a dragonslayer in this battle. After the victory, Dany will claim the Vale and start ferrying her troops from Pentos to the Vale. This will be the end of TWoW for the Vale.

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6 hours ago, Nevets said:

Sansa is knowledgeable about history and houses, true.  But her education about the Starks and the North ended when she was 11, so her knowledge about the mountain clans could be a bit sketchy.

Her great-grandmother was a Flint. Pretty sure she knows something of the Houses of her own lineage.

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

She and Timett have met, but I don't think they really knew each other.  Timett was long gone by the time she married Tyrion.  I think you may be making Timett more important than he actually is.  

I did not imply that they hung out together or that Timett was around during her marriage to Tyrion (I mentioned that he was long gone by the time Tyrion realized Joff hired the catspaw). But they have met a few times, including Timett escorting her gently to safety away from the kingsguard who were beating her. I said he knows a few things, but I agree it is unlikely he knows everything. Enough to get the ball rolling though for Sansa to begin questioning LF far more.

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

I would expect Sandor to be a more likely source of information than Timett.

I expect Sandor to be a crucial datamine.

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

  Tyrion himself might say something.  I'm pretty sure those two will meet again. 

Not happening until after tWoW. She won't be meeting Tyrion until she is secure, independent and in some form of her own power, and her own guards. LF will be dead and gone before she even meets Tyrion.

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

Brynden Tully probably knows some stuff. 

Yeah, and he's occupied in the RL for the moment. Something to do with his family home.

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

And then there's Jeyne Poole.  GRRM didn't put torture marks on her just for kicks.  Something is up, and all clues lead to Littlefinger. 

Very true, but Jeyne Poole is not meeting Sansa anytime soon and may never meet her again. Perhaps they meet much much later, long after Sansa already had LF's head on a spike and feels a level of extra satisfaction for being the one who took out the man who harmed her childhood friend.

All I'm doing is pointing out that Timett and Sansa are not complete strangers to one another. They will recognize each other and he has the potential to blow Sansa's Alayne cover. Against all the people you listed  he's the sole one who's actually confirmed to be in the Vale and having the surprise element of "guess you forgot about him, dear reader". The sole other who's potentially in the Vale is Sandor, but if so, he's in disguise himself. And I know you don't like that possibilty either. So, you came up with a great list of people who are of no use to a Vale plot, due to the little caveat of not being in the Vale, except for Sandor (I hope).

ETA: Most of these people you mentioned are tied to her trauma of lack of agency. You reasonably set the bar that her plot must help her gain agency, instead of making her a passive recipient of rescue or flounder on the tides of misfortune. I agree with that, exactly because imho she cannot and will not face most of these until she actually has some agency and actually took down LF, especially Tyrion.

Tyrion had the biggest reason aside from herself to take him down. He had the power and the intelligence at the time. He sent Slynt to the Wall, put Pycelle into a cell, outmanoevered Cersei and Joffrey (the king) for most of aCoK, but he chose not to avenge himself on LF. I believe it is crucial for Sansa's sense of empowerment that Sansa has LF executed without Tyrion's immediate help. To take down one false rescuer and needing another false rescuer for it is not empowering, or leads to a sense of empowerment floating on quicksand (since LF "saved" her from Tyrion).

There is almost no more humiliating feeling than discovering you've been played, of having trust someone and then discover it was all a con - "I was a complete fool to trust xyz". Jeyne, Tyrion and LF are all tied up to this "what a fool I was" experience. Sansa was unable to face that "fooled" reality when Jeyne was locked up with her in her tower. It was a relief to her, when Jeyne was separated from her. We are reminded of this again, when Tyrion saves her from the beatings and has Timett and Bronn escort her safely to the tower of the Hand. At the time Tyrion offered to help her, that she could trust him. She was cautious and did not, and rightly so, because he wed her after.

LF is the worst betrayer. Sansa still has to discover how deep that betrayal went, all the way back to when she was locked up with Jeyne and almost grew to hate her childhood friend in that time. Hence it is crucial that Sansa manages to take down LF in a manner that does not make her feel a fool, but as if she outwitted him almost entirely by herself. She shows the intelligence to figure out some of LF's ways and plotting in the present, as she has with Corbray and hsi breaking of guest right during the meeting with the Lords Declarant. It's impossible for her to actually figure it out by herself because she lacks a few crucial puzzle pieces of info. There are a few people who can do this, such as Lothor Brune, but most of them are indebted to LF for their own rise in society. Timett was a part of Tyrion's arc from his escape of the Vale until the Battle of the Blackwater, and he hung out with Bronn. Him leaving KL asap also indicates he does not feel indebted or loyal to Tyrion whatsoever. To me he's exactly the right amount of "I know him" alongside "he's not part of my trauma" and "he's not Tyrion's/LF's man", with just the minimum of knowledge necessary for Sansa to independently complete the puzzle by herself and come out of this - I figured it out. So, it's not that I make him more important than he is, but he has the right amount of relevance and acquaintance and independence from both Tyrion and LF, from the trauma of the past, imo for Sansa to feel self-empowered: that is, he's almost entirely negligbly relevant, except here and there.

You also argued that a disaster is the last that Sansa needs. I can see where you're coming from, but a natural disaster is something I expect Sansa to face with superb leading skill and composure. She was more a queen than Cersei during the Battle of the Blackwater. She is made to be the cool headed one who instinctively knows what orders to give and to whom in a crisis situation. She absolutely shines. So, a natural disaster would imo have the opposite impact on Sansa's empowerment arc than what you believe it would have imho. And it is especially apt in an arc where Sansa takes down LF and reclaims her Stark identity. Nobody could or would take out LF, not even those who know how he wronged them (Tyrion). He buys and seduces his enemies constantly into joining his side, except for Yohn Royce. And he considers himself the master of chaos. So, chaos itself is a crucial element imo to make him lose his footing. He can control so many puppet strings with chaos, but he cannot control nature nor chaos. At the very least it will imbalance him.

The mountain clans too are inherently akin to chaos coming for LF - their sometimes chaotic power structures are not familiar to him, gold cannot get them fertile ancestral lands, and good luck to LF trying to be matchmaker like Jon was for Karstark and Thenns, when the potential sole lord who might consider it isn't even at your tourney. And who knows, perhaps she acquires her personal and honorary Starkguards from amongst the "treemen" of the mountains of the Vale. Sansa can do with some reconnection with her wolf-side.

That's what the Vale plot will be imo - enough chaos outside of LF's control for him to lose his footing and become unstable, while Sansa will shine in those conditions because of her personal skill, and her FM Stark heritage, and then just a few puzzle pieces from someone independent who she knows (as in "I've seen him around and never wronged me") and yet has no emotional trauma bond with.    

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11 hours ago, Nevets said:

The first thing to remember about the story in the Vale at this point is that it is Sansa's story.  The Vale is important right now because Sansa is there.  It's her finishing school where she learn the art of politics, influence, manipulation, and puts it to use.  Any suggestions of future story needs to advance her story or affect Westeros overall.

She's learning, it's true - but like Arya, she's not had enough time to become the finished article. They're good, but not good enough to go against the masters without some other factor tipping the balance.

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

I fail to see how the "avalanche" theory advances her story.  Unless she is in charge of the rescue or leads the Vale out of disaster back to prosperity, which I don't see happening, then she's little more than a bystander.  We've had seen enough of that with her.

I'm sold on the avalanche coming, with game-changing results. I just can't see Sansa as queen of the apocalypse, in any form.

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

The Royces being absent is probably due to their differences with Littlefinger.  And Sansa turning to the Royces because they are all that's left isn't especially satisfactory either.  If she's going to turn to Yohn Royce, it needs to be because she feels he is the best choice out of everybody in the Vale.

If Sansa turns to Yohn Royce, he would take ownership of her, marry her off probably. That's not a specific criticism of him, it's just how the game works.

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

As for Timmett and the other tribesmen, a rapprochement might be a good idea.  If you want to suggest that Sansa helps bring one about, go for it.  She can follow in her "brother's" footsteps.  But you don't need a mass casualty disaster to facilitate it.

Sansa is not the wildling model of a strong leader. GRRM could make it happen, but I can't picture it.

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

Essentially, with any theory involving the Vale, ask yourself "how does this advance Sansa's story?".

It avoids the Vale people being cosily holed up all winter with their food supplies and secure boundaries. Important.

More generally, I don't think Sansa is going to advance as such, certainly not morphing into Dany the Second. I like the idea that things that happened before will happen again - Arya will assassinate people, and Sansa will manoeuvre ever so carefully among incredibly dangerous people who hardly notice she's a player at all.

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8 hours ago, Mithras said:

Sansa I

Preps for the tourney.

Sansa II

Littlefinger informs Sansa about the news from the North such as Ramsay’s victory and the death of Stannis (both of which are known to be wrong by the readers but not by Littlefinger or Sansa) and that Jon broke his vows to fight Ramsay. Harry is slain in a “tourney mishap” during the melee. Littlefinger comes up with a plan to get Sansa pregnant and pass the child as Harry’s. He also tells her that this is his price for taking the Vale armies to the North to help Jon against Ramsay. Sansa realizes that it was Littlefinger who arranged Harry’s death. She says no. Littlefinger tries to rape her and the maid slays the savage giant.

Sansa III

With Littlefinger lying dead on the floor, Sansa is in deep trouble. Shadrich breaks in and promises Sansa to take her to Jon for protection. Three Sunderland brothers are with Shadrich. Sansa thinks that she does not have any other direction to go. She agrees. They flee in secrecy and eventually come to the Sisters to find a ship. On the boat, Sansa realizes that she is betrayed. The ship is sailing south instead of north. Sunderlands and Shadrich mean to sell her to Cersei.

This is how I see the Vale wrapping up for Sansa. After Littlefinger's death and Sansa's disappearance, there will be a power vacuum. The Vale will be nominally supporting the Iron Throne but the Vale Lords will remain divided. By the end of TWoW, Stannis will have consolidated the North and at the same time, Dany will have wrapped up Essos and be ready to ferry her troops to Westeros. Elsewhere, fAegon will have gained large domains from the Lannisters whose control will be limited to King's Landing and Casterly Rock.

The allegiance of the Vale will be the major contention between Stannis and Dany, over which they will need to fight a naval war. The Vale Lords will make it clear that only the victor will get their allegiance along with their untouched food reserves and manpower. Stannis will be defeated and return back to the North where the Northmen will abandon him (which will finally make Stannis ready for a certain sacrifice) but I believe Davos will be a dragonslayer in this battle. After the victory, Dany will claim the Vale and start ferrying her troops from Pentos to the Vale. This will be the end of TWoW for the Vale.

But who is going to wear Sansa's favor at the tourney?

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On 1/23/2023 at 10:43 AM, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

Sansa is actually very smart, I'm not sure where people get the idea that she's dumb.

I agree that she's smart.  But I can see why people think she's dumb.  Her imagination and her idealism and her ability to block out things she does not want to see or know (which can be a both a useful ability, as well as a dangerous blind spot) can make her seem stupid to some people.

In her current chapters, she is playing a role - Alayne.  Yet she does not seem to have actually lost her identity.  It seems to be merely a part she is playing.  The setup seems to be that Sansa is diving into her role as Alayne as a form of self protection.  Then at the end of her chapters, or between chapters, she receives new information, which she absorbs, digests, plans and schemes, offscreen and between chapters and when by herself.  Then she dives back into her role as Alayne, and the next chapter starts up.  And when she is playing her role, she banishes inconsistent thoughts from her head.

But I'm guessing there is more going on in her head than we see in her Alayne chapters, such that GRRM means to surprise us when she finally makes a move. Just a theory.

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44 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Shadrich?

 

43 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Byron

She knows Shadrich and Byron are LF's men.  (Additionally, Shadrich has his own agenda, which neither LF nor Sansa likely guess).

LF agreed too readily to Sansa's tournament scheme.  He no doubt intends to surround Sweetrobin with winged knights who are loyal to himself.  Sansa probably has her own ideas.

In a knockout format, it takes only 3 rounds of jousting to reduce 64 knights to the required 8 knights.  Some of those 3 matches could be fixed, if LF is able to influence the pairings.  And if Shadrich does not expect to win, he may intend to lose.

A key person LF would like to see win is Lyn Corbray.  This puts one of his own men in, without seeming to do so.

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45 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

What role do you think Shadrich will play, then?

Byron and Shadrich are a team. Byron has the "charm" role and can ride the lists. Shadrich is more of a melee guy, not the lists.

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20 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Byron and Shadrich are a team. Byron has the "charm" role and can ride the lists. Shadrich is more of a melee guy, not the lists.

Agree it is plausible Byron and Shadrich are a team.  He tried to make a deal with Brienne.  He may have made the same offer to others.

Shadrich did not actually tell Alayne that he would not compete in the joust.  He may have merely meant that he did not expect to win.  He might ride to lose, thereby helping one of LF's catspaws to advance.

 

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2 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Agree it is plausible Byron and Shadrich are a team.  He tried to make a deal with Brienne.  He may have made the same offer to others.

Shadrich did not actually tell Alayne that he would not compete in the joust.  He may have merely meant that he did not expect to win.  He might ride to lose, thereby helping one of LF's catspaws to advance.

 

I don't think he tried to make a deal with Brienne. He mostly wanted her to start mistrusting the two hedge knights she was traveling with as well as prevent her with reverse psychology from joining with him. He did not want Brienne who is incapable of disguising herself or keeping her intent secret.

I love Brienne, but she distrusts the trustworthy ones and trusts those who'd betray her. She's like Thistle, going in search for food for a guy like Varamyr, never realizing who or what he was until he tried to mind-rape her.

I think he sought Byron out and Morgarth. He met them at the Quiet Isle ;)

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1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

I don't think he tried to make a deal with Brienne.

Maybe not, but he definitely proposed a deal.  He was quite explicit - cooperate in finding Sansa, and split the Spider's gold.    Whether he can be trusted is another matter, but the deal was proposed.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

He mostly wanted her to start mistrusting the two hedge knights she was traveling with

Not sure what that gets him. 

I think he just has a low opinion of them, and no reason to conceal it.  Brienne also has a low opinion.  But Brienne (being both less wicked and more courteous) appreciates their good qualifies as well?

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

as well as prevent her with reverse psychology from joining with him. 

He did not want Brienne who is incapable of disguising herself or keeping her intent secret.

Why not just ignore her?  That way he does not even have to tell her he is also searching for Sansa.   Travel together til Duskendale, and then part ways.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

I think he sought Byron out and Morgarth. He met them at the Quiet Isle ;)

I don't think Byron and Morgarth are from the Quiet Isle, though I guess the red nose is the clue you have in mind.

But Byron, Shadrich and Morgarth all show up together to see LF.  And ....

Spoiler

... all 3 of them dance with Alayne during the feast in WINDS.  Which seems a curious coincidence for all 3 to take so much interest.  She does dance with a lot of people, but it was at most a about dozen people, not all 64 of the Tourney Knights present together with all their brothers and uncles.

Ser Owen intrigues me.  He is defeated in a practice bout with Corbray, which means that the reader is tempted to dismiss him as a nobody.  But Sansa does not get to see his heraldry nor a good look at his face.  We know nothing about him, other than that he is big.  And he may have lost intentionally so as not to show his hand before the pairings are arranged.  But maybe I'm thinking too deeply, and Ser Owen is exactly as he appears - a nobody.

A number of participants are plausibly aligned with LF:  Mychel Redfort, Lyn Corbray, Harry the Heir, Lothor Brune, the 2 Wainwrights, and Albar Royce,   Shadrich, Byron and Morgarth are also plausibly in his employ to some extent.

Some other participants are plausibly aligned with the Bronze Yohn Royce and the Lords Declarant. Mychel Redfort might be in either camp.  My guess is that if there are a significant number of knights of skill, that LF does not think he can control, he will manipulate the pairings to get them to eliminate each other.

Another curious character is Targon the Half Wild.  We know nothing about him but his name, and that he is the "soul of courtesy".

 We have at most 23 names of the 64(+) participants, so their is plenty of room for other mystery characters to show up before the Tourney starts

 

 

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