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Why are People in the Series Obsessed with Convoluted, Heavily Luck-Dependant Plans?


Craving Peaches

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  • Cersei's plan to kill Robert was very luck based, and she was incredibly lucky it worked, there was the potential for a lot to go wrong; also her plan to get him killed in the melee was similarly luck-based
  • Whatever LF's plan is has lots of steps and he's lucky no-one caught him
  • Same with what Varys is doing
  • And whatever Doran's plan is

A simple plan, with fewer instances for something to go wrong, would have been much more effective and safer for Cersei to use. For example, she could have just poisoned Robert. It's like they have this need to make their plans really convoluted and risky. I don't understand.

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Unfortunately a lot of the plans in the series are luck/plot based. Hell, look at Tywin. His whole strategy was one massive gamble that realistically shouldn't have worked. He won the lottery multiple times over.

At least for plans that haven't seen the end yet due to the series taking so long, there is still hope. I cling to whatever theories/convoluted plans come about for my favorite characters because... what else can ya do 11 years later. 

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15 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:
  • Whatever LF's plan is has lots of steps and he's lucky no-one caught him

What was so complicated about his original plan? He thought he could get the Starks to believe the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn to cover up their incest. The resulting fallout would create lots of opportunities for him to advance. The fact that Bran stumbled on Jamie and Cersei just meant the everything happened quicker than he could have reasonably expected. After he sided with the Lannisters against the Starks he looked ahead and made new plans. I don't think he mapped everything out from the beginning. For example, I'm sure he would have made different plans if Ned had listened to his advice.

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4 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

What would he have done if that hadn't happened, though?

Robert wasn't really interested in governing and Littlefinger's role was mostly limited to raising money. If Ned compromises his principles and listens to him, then Littlefinger is in position to have the new regent in his pocket. Once Sansa was married to Joffrey, Ned could no longer afford to have the secret exposed. Littlefinger would be positioning himself to be the power behind the throne. I doubt that would be his final goal, but he would definitely be gaining power if the regent is willing and/or forced to listen to him.

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They are more fun.

In fact the most lucky of them all is Varys, Cersei literally commits treason and passes her incestuous children as true.

What would have happened if Cersei actually gave Robert an heir, or if she actually had three bastards and then a fourth  child to ensure no one could ever suspect nor prove fool play?

Varys is fucked, Doran is fucked and Westeros fall to ice zombies.

 

18 minutes ago, Groo said:

He thought he could get the Starks to believe the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn to cover up their incest.

His plan relied completely on Ned never talking to Robert and or Varys baxking him up.

He literally framed Tyrion for murder and then banked on Tyrion being cool headed enough about not simply separating his head from his shoulders.

And so on.

 

7 minutes ago, Groo said:

Once Sansa was married to Joffrey, Ned could no longer afford to have the secret exposed. Littlefinger would be positioning himself to be the power behind the throne.

Ned did not need to marry Sansa to Joffrey inmediately. He could always agree to Littlefinger demands, crown Joffrey.

And then simply quietly tell Renly or Edmure to present themselves in King's Landing with an army in order to clean house, that if he could simply not send the rotten apples to the Wall and thus eliminating Petyr's influence.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:
  • Cersei's plan to kill Robert was very luck based, and she was incredibly lucky it worked, there was the potential for a lot to go wrong; also her plan to get him killed in the melee was similarly luck-based
  • Whatever LF's plan is has lots of steps and he's lucky no-one caught him
  • Same with what Varys is doing
  • And whatever Doran's plan is

A simple plan, with fewer instances for something to go wrong, would have been much more effective and safer for Cersei to use. For example, she could have just poisoned Robert. It's like they have this need to make their plans really convoluted and risky. I don't understand.

 

Many seem to have plans that failed or had to be adapted to circumstances

-Cerseis plan was just one of many,   once she decided robert had to go she had lancel right there and pycelle to help kill him. The boar and meele plan was luck based yes buy shes in a position to keep.setting such plots up until one suceeds...spray and pray basicaly. Shes spent a.life of privilage thus practical thinking is probably beyond her

 

-LFs plan is whatever he wants it to be at any given time! He has his info network (whores,bars and his money men on top of people.paid to watch/follow) as well as the finances.of the crown to creatively dip into but he has  no true allies or masters thus he awnsers to no one......he can improvise on the fly to see what deals he can make to keep rising!

-varys plan has an ally to consult at times and is fixed around aegon on the crown thus he isnt as flexible as littefinger. His plan has adapted as circumstances have changed esp with dany transforming from a pawn used  for distraction   into a  serious player.

 

-dorans plan has clearly had to adapt too , the  original seemed to revolve around the   red viper getting tywin and  the mountain. The posion theory seems the most credible (it also fits with hisnconcern for innocent lives not being lost)....the viper shows up at KL and posions tywin and when  he dies and the viper is accused he can ask for trial by combat to kill the mountain too(the most likely lannister pick and with spear posioned to ensure its only  a win or a draw outcome) 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Scarn said:

Hell, look at Tywin. His whole strategy was one massive gamble that realistically shouldn't have worked. He won the lottery multiple times over.

Agree completely. I made a post about this a while ago. Tywin really lucked out at multiple moments:

1. That Robert died when he did meant he wasn't found breaking the King's Peace

2. That Stannis, Robb and Renly didn't just decide to team up on the Lannisters first

3. That Renly died 

4. That Theon took Winterfell

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1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Tyrion should have dealt with Littlefinger when he got to King's Landing in ACoK.

The issue is the minute he gets there his energy is focused on  reigning in joff and cersei  and prepping for renly/stannis siege + getting the measure of varys  in that order!  He isnt sure of why lf did what he did and he needs a master of coin and by the time things have settled down tywin is back in charge

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4 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

The issue is the minute he gets there his energy is focused on  reigning in joff and cersei  and prepping for renly/stannis siege + getting the measure of varys  in that order!  He isnt sure of why lf did what he did and he needs a master of coin and by the time things have settled down tywin is back in charge

I'm not sure I agree with that. He spends half of his time with Shae.

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1 hour ago, frenin said:

He could always agree to Littlefinger demands, crown Joffrey.

And then simply quietly tell Renly or Edmure to present themselves in King's Landing with an army in order to clean house, that if he could simply not send the rotten apples to the Wall and thus eliminating Petyr's influence.

Littlefinger wanted Ned to bend. You're suggesting Ned could have suddenly just completely changed his spots. You're also implying that Ned should have known that Littlefinger was lying when he said he'd get the gold cloaks. Littlefinger had been watching and nudging Ned the whole time. He knew Ned wouldn't anticipate the betrayal.

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2 minutes ago, Groo said:

Littlefinger wanted Ned to bend. You're suggesting Ned could have suddenly just completely changed his spots. You're also implying that Ned should have known that Littlefinger was lying when he said he'd get the gold cloaks. Littlefinger had been watching and nudging Ned the whole time. He knew Ned wouldn't anticipate the betrayal.

I'm surprised he didn't anticipate the betrayal, given his family's past history with Littlefinger.

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2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:
  • Cersei's plan to kill Robert was very luck based, and she was incredibly lucky it worked, there was the potential for a lot to go wrong; also her plan to get him killed in the melee was similarly luck-based

It was a final gamble spurned on by Cersei's godswood conversation with Ned. Cersei clearly had already settled on Robert dying an accidental death on a hunt or in a tourney. One imagines that the Tourney of the Hand plan to kill Robert in the melée would have also involved strengthened strongwine so that the Lannister assassin involved wouldn't have been that much of an assassin but rather a guy dealing him an unlucky blow.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:
  • Whatever LF's plan is has lots of steps and he's lucky no-one caught him

Littlefinger has no convoluted long-term plans. He just wants to rise and acquire power. And he doesn't care how he does it, he just strives to make himself useful to more powerful people in a crisis ... and exploit said crises for himself.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:
  • Same with what Varys is doing

Varys wants to put Aegon on the throne. It is a long-term plan, to be sure, but not all that convoluted ... although certain in-between steps are somewhat tricky - like, when exactly Aegon is supposed to make his move, etc. But even that's kind of straightforward and basically the fate of all exiled pretenders to a throne. They have to really choose the right moment for an invasion if they actually want to win/regain the throne.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:
  • And whatever Doran's plan is

Doran has no convoluted plan, either. He strives towards the destruction of House Lannister and a Targaryen restoration (first Viserys III, now Daenerys, perhaps soon Aegon) ... but like all cautious noblemen/princes who consider the needs of their own house/people in addition to some revenge plot he is only willing to start an actual war when chances to win are very good.

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

A simple plan, with fewer instances for something to go wrong, would have been much more effective and safer for Cersei to use. For example, she could have just poisoned Robert. It's like they have this need to make their plans really convoluted and risky. I don't understand.

Poisoning is pretty hard in this world, and easily discovered if you don't have all the maesters on your side. The king has food tasters, etc. and there are apparently no poisons you can administer over a longer period of time mimicking an illness.

But keep in mind that Cersei actually did not want Robert to go too soon - she wanted to first deal with Robert's brothers. Her hand is forced by Jon Arryn's investigation and Ned's appointment as Hand.

2 hours ago, Groo said:

For example, I'm sure he would have made different plans if Ned had listened to his advice.

Yeah, it is pretty clear that Littlefinger originally intended to use Ned as the mount he rode to power. After Cat rejected him, and he saw Sansa, it seems to have been clear that the modest price he would demand from Ned in exchange for helping him to install him as regent, etc. would have been Sansa's hand - after all, he apparently also asked Cersei for Sansa's hand in the wake of succession crisis.

Littlefinger has much more sway with Ned and Cat in AGoT than he was with the Lannisters. And he must have known that the whole Tyrion dagger lie could come back to haunt him. He just avoids that because he really makes himself useful to Joffrey's cause throughout the war. Him brokering the Lannister-Tyrell alliance saved Cersei's and Joffrey's necks.

But he then wisely removes himself from court and goes with what would have been plan B from the start - marrying Lysa, taking over the Vale which will allow him to rise even higher in exchange for offering the help of the Vale to this or that pretender.

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42 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I'm surprised he didn't anticipate the betrayal, given his family's past history with Littlefinger.

Ned knows to be generally suspicious, but Ned just isn't devious. The idea that the gold cloaks would show up, say they're behind him, and then all turn on him just isn't a thought that would go through Ned's head.

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48 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

I'm surprised he didn't anticipate the betrayal, given his family's past history with Littlefinger.

He is desperate and Cat t old him to trust Petyr because he was like her brother.

 

50 minutes ago, Groo said:

Littlefinger wanted Ned to bend.

Indeed.

 

50 minutes ago, Groo said:

You're suggesting Ned could have suddenly just completely changed his spots.

No, I'm suggesting that he should be aware that if Ned is the kind of man to marry his daughter to a bastard that has no claim to the throne, he is obviously the kind of man to betray him.

Fortunately for him, Ned was neither.

 

50 minutes ago, Groo said:

You're also implying that Ned should have known that Littlefinger was lying when he said he'd get the gold cloaks.

No, I'm simply stating that Ned didn't trust him. Which is true.

Quote

Eddard Stark allowed himself a curse. Aside from his own retainers, there was scarcely a man in this city he trusted. Littlefinger had concealed Catelyn and helped Ned in his inquiries, yet his haste to save his own skin when Jaime and his swords had come out of the rain still rankled. Varys was worse. For all his protestations of loyalty, the eunuch knew too much and did too little. Grand Maester Pycelle seemed more Cersei's creature with every passing day, and Ser Barristan was an old man, and rigid. He would tell Ned to do his duty.

 

He only tries to use him because he is his last chance once Robert, Ned was always going to make permanent changes in the Small Council as soon as he got used to his position. Littlefinger saw the writing on the wall.

Littlefinger is a lucky guy, plain and simple.

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