Why are People in the Series Obsessed with Convoluted, Heavily Luck-Dependant Plans?

[chrisdaw]

They're mostly not long term master plans, they're adaption as circumstances arise with a goal somewhere off in the sunset. Had things gone another way they'd have done something different. And things do go another way, big time and often, Drogo killing Viserys and then Drogo dying for example, and the players roll with it. Jaime demanding Varys set Tyrion free and then Tyrion murdering Tywin for another, that seems to have forced Varys underground.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

His plan relied completely on Ned never talking to Robert and or Varys baxking him up.

He literally framed Tyrion for murder and then banked on Tyrion being cool headed enough about not simply separating his head from his shoulders.

And so on.

So Ned talks to Robert, and... ? How does that completely ruin anything, and even if it did just fizzle out so what? He just moves on to the next idea to cause chaos and find an angle to profit from it.

Tyrion wasn't in any position to be a threat to him or likely to be in such a position when he told the lie, and he read Tyrion's character correctly (not to mention has eyes and ears in KL to sniff out danger) when Tyrion fell into the position of Hand.

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Poisoning is pretty hard in this world, and easily discovered if you don't have all the maesters on your side

But Cersei did have the maesters on her side. Pycelle at that time was loyal to the Lannister cause.

[frenin]

3 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

So Ned talks to Robert, and... ? How does that completely ruin anything, and even if it did just fizzle out so what? He just moves on to the next idea to cause chaos and find an angle to profit from it.

Ned talks to Robert, Robert tells him that the dagger is from his armory, Ned and Robert hash things out about who tried to kill Bran, even if it's proven to have been Joffrey.

Petyr gets the raw end of the deal for literally trying to frame the son of Tywin Lannister, especially if things get out of hand due to that blatant lie.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Craving Peaches said:

But Cersei did have the maesters on her side. Pycelle at that time was loyal to the Lannister cause.

So you think that Pycelle would have been fine being a culprit in regicide? I'd not be so sure of that. He is loyal to Lord Tywin, not necessarily to the Lannister cause as such. His loyalty extends to keeping the true parentage of Cersei's children a secret, but I'd not bet on Pycelle actually wanting to involve himself personally in a regicide.

The Grand Maester wouldn't have been the only maester investigating a royal corpse after a king's death, so Pycelle alone may have not been enough to conceal the fact that the king had been poisoned. Joff's murder is arranged in a manner that could allow all parties involved with the interpretation that he choked on the pie or the wine or both ... but that would hinge on the fact that nobody ever suggested the king had been poisoned or accused concrete people of such a crime.

Cersei going with a murder disguised as an accidental death is actually pretty smart - and, in fact, Robert wasn't murdered, he died an accidental death. Giving somebody strong(er) wine isn't murder when those people actually insist on personally fighting a wild boar.

It is smart because at that time the royal court is a tinderbox. The mere accusation/suggestion that Robert may have been poisoned or murdered could have unpleasant consequences for Cersei and her children. An accidental death like it happened is what Cersei needs to keep herself and her family out of this mess - and that actually works pretty well. If Robert had died at table in the Red Keep with Renly and Ned (and perhaps even Stannis) being there the men may have decided to declare Cersei a poisoner less then five minutes after Robert's death - like Cersei does with Tyrion after Joff's death.

5 minutes ago, frenin said:

Petyr gets the raw end of the deal for literally trying to frame the son of Tywin Lannister, especially if things get out of hand due to that blatant lie.

Petyr could get in some kind of trouble there, but he (and Varys) could always hide behind the fact that telling Cat/Ned the truth about the dagger's owner would implicate the king or the king's own family in this alleged murder plot. They could hide behind the claim that Tyrion was implicated in an attempt to protect Robert.

Chances are pretty good that Robert would have bought that. Even more so since Joffrey may not, in fact, have stolen the dagger. Instead Robert could have actually given it to the boy as a gift and if that was the case then Robert wouldn't have been eager to accuse - much less try - his own son Prince Joffrey of the attempted murder of Brandon and Catelyn Stark.

[chrisdaw]

8 minutes ago, frenin said:

Ned talks to Robert, Robert tells him that the dagger is from his armory, Ned and Robert hash things out about who tried to kill Bran, even if it's proven to have been Joffrey.

And so what? A plan wouldn't have come to fruition as hoped, life goes on.

9 minutes ago, frenin said:

Petyr gets the raw end of the deal for literally trying to frame the son of Tywin Lannister, especially if things get out of hand due to that blatant lie.

Yeah sure if everyone sits down in a room and speaks openly and calmly and backtracks through how this all came to be. LF is playing the odds that it's not going that way, and if it does, he'd adapt.

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

So you think that Pycelle would have been fine being a culprit in regicide?

I think he'd agree to do it. It might take a bit of convincing but I think Cersei could bring him round. He isn't particularly strong willed and there is also blackmail material Cersei can use if his loyalty to the Lannister cause isn't enough.

[frenin]

4 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

And so what? A plan wouldn't have come to fruition as hoped, life goes on.

For Robert and Ned? Sure.

For Petyr? Not so sure. Why would he get away with it? He's a nobody and he has fucked up pretty badly and blatantly.

 

5 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Yeah sure if everyone sits down in a room and speaks openly and calmly and backtracks through how this all came to be. LF is playing the odds that it's not going that way, and if it does, he'd adapt.

No, if Robert and Ned speak over the matter at all. It doesn't have to be calmly, Ned's son was put at risk at the end of the day.  However you put it tho, as soon as he's discovered to be lying, which would be pretty soon. He's pretty much toasted, no matter the outcome. Neither Robert, nor Ned nor the Lannisters would trust him after that and all of them would have good reason to want him dead anyway.

 

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think he'd agree to do it. It might take a bit of convincing but I think Cersei could bring him round. He isn't particularly strong willed and there is also blackmail material Cersei can use if his loyalty to the Lannister cause isn't enough.

Not sure what she could use to blackmail Pycelle with - Pycelle could rather threaten to tell Robert the truth about her children's parentage.

Pycelle is very much loyal to Tywin, personally. And by extension also to Cersei as Tywin's daughter and her children as Tywin's grandchildren. But he isn't loyal to the Lannisters as such, it seems, since his Tywin fanboyism seems to come from the fact that he saw the guy run the government of the Realm for twenty years and was really, really impressed by that.

But murdering a king is a heinous crime in Westeros ... and Pycelle, while not saving Jon Arryn from the Tears of Lys, doesn't seem to have directly murdered anyone so far, nor is there any indication that he was personally involved in the death of a king.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure what she could use to blackmail Pycelle with - Pycelle could rather threaten to tell Robert the truth about her children's parentage.

It seems that quite a lot of people knew or suspected the truth about Cersei's children. Makes you wonder why Jon Arryn needed a genealogy book to figure it out.

[chrisdaw]

1 minute ago, frenin said:

For Robert and Ned? Sure.

For Petyr? Not so sure. Why would he get away with it? He's a nobody and he has fucked up pretty badly and blatantly.

No, if Robert and Ned speak over the matter at all. It doesn't have to be calmly, Ned's son was put at risk at the end of the day.  However you put it tho, as soon as he's discovered to be lying, which would be pretty soon. He's pretty much toasted, no matter the outcome. Neither Robert, nor Ned nor the Lannisters would trust him after that and all of them would have good reason to want him dead anyway.

I disagree the dagger lie is near that absolute a liability. It's under the umbrella of the Lannisters trying to kill JA and in the midst of the Starks/Lannister tensions, and by the time he tells the lie he's pretty aware Ned and Robert aren't speaking openly because Robert doesn't know Ned suspects the Lannisters of killing JA (all the secrecy partly his doing). An open conversation between Ned and Robert is about JA, Bran and the dagger is secondary, but even if it does come back to LF he has room to move/lie, to say he was misunderstood, that he misremembered, to conjure up some massive lie, or divert attention to the big picture issue - the Lannisters tried to kill JA and the kids are Jaime's. But he probably wouldn't have to divert attention, the big picture issue here is that Ned believes the Lannisters killed JA and that's going to dominate everything.

Besides the dagger lie there's no other way LF is liable as far as I am aware, as in there's nothing to get away with, unless Lysa spills the beans (and implicates herself) and he has her out of the way and under control. If Lysa's letter to Catelyn doesn't have the desired effect and the Lannisters and Starks don't come to blows then it was just a plan that didn't pan out, but it doesn't hurt LF, he just moves onto the next. He didn't stake his life on this plan working out (but he probably could have, it was a really strong plan).

The premise of the topic is that these characters have massive convoluted multistage plans, I disagree, particularly with LF (and in regards to Varys), they have long term goals and adapt to situations as they arise to edge their way there. He saw a war coming due to the Lannister bastard children, and manoeuvred to make it as big and bad as he could and pull the Starks into it. It worked out very well and he's since adapted to new circumstances (like meeting and learning how beautiful and alike to Catelyn Sansa is) as they developed and profited nicely. He has a plan now, it's not really that convoluted.

[frenin]

13 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

I disagree the dagger lie is near that absolute a liability. It's under the umbrella of the Lannisters trying to kill JA and in the midst of the Starks/Lannister tensions, and by the time he tells the lie he's pretty aware Ned and Robert aren't speaking openly because Robert doesn't know Ned suspects the Lannisters of killing JA (all the secrecy partly his doing).

The dagger is tangential to the Lannisters trying to kill Jon.

Ned and Robert aren't speaking about the fact that Robert's family in law may or may not have commited treason... because Ned needs evidence lol. Even if Ned and Robert were on the best terms, he'd still need to collect evidence before airing such heavy accusation, that is common sense. But there is absolutely no reason for Ned to hide the fact that he has found a dagger from the Lannisters (allegedly) used to try and kill his son. 

It is absolutely bonkers risking your neck based on that premise and Littlefinger got absolutely bailed both by the fact that Varys decided to keep silence and that Ned just sat on that info.

 

22 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

An open conversation between Ned and Robert is about JA, Bran and the dagger is secondary, but even if it does come back to LF he has room to move/lie, to say he was misunderstood, that he misremembered, to conjure up some massive lie,

He can't.

He cannot tell that he was misunderstood, Ned would have his head on the second for trying to frame him and Cat.

He can misremember with a lot of people, he cannot misremember with the son of Tywin Lannister. This is again logic.

Perhaps a highlord like a Hightower or a Prince of Dorne can get away with that bullshit but Petyr is simple not important enough and whereas he is a valuable, he is not that valuable to let that slide.

 

26 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

the Lannisters tried to kill JA and the kids are Jaime's. But he probably wouldn't have to divert attention, the big picture issue here is that Ned believes the Lannisters killed JA and that's going to dominate everything.

Ned did not trust him, Robert would mistrustt him right away and the Lannister would want his head.

Even if he does make it short term, umlikely, the victor would always come for him sooner or later. 

The idea that he wasn't risking his neck is quite frankly absurd. The only moment he is too big to fail is during ACOK, before and after that, he is  very much disposable.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

It seems that quite a lot of people knew or suspected the truth about Cersei's children. Makes you wonder why Jon Arryn needed a genealogy book to figure it out.

Jon Arryn didn't need a genealogy book to figure it out. Stannis told him. He consulted the book to have ammunition to make his case to Robert.

Pycelle indicates he knows when Tyrion threatens him in ACoK. But this doesn't necessarily mean he knew before the Jon Arryn investigation or even before Robert's death. He lets it slip that he knew that Cersei wanted Jon Arryn dead ... but as he himself confesses she never outright told him - meaning she would have also not given him her reasons, meaning she would have not told him about the true parentage of her children, etc. In turn, Pycelle would also have not known who actually gave the Tears of Lys to Jon but he would have concluded it was Cersei or somebody else acting on her behest.

Ned eventually spills the beans in front of the court when he tries to arrest Cersei and the children, so technically Pycelle could have only connected all the dots then and there.

On the other hand - Ned earlier borrowed the book from him, so got a pretty big puzzle piece there. Also, of course, Pycelle may have been pretty close to Cersei during her three successful pregnancies and also during the births of the children. He was old enough to have known Steffon Baratheon, his father Lord Ormund, his father, and even the Laughing Storm (and many other Baratheons who ran around during that era). He may have wondered about the looks of Cersei's children long before others grew suspicious.

But I'm honestly not sure how anyone but Varys (whose agents may have overheard private talks) could actually know anything about the true parentage. Cersei and Jaime were apparently pretty discreet ... and since they were not just siblings but twins any signs of affection people might oversee in public or semi-public events could be easily enough explained that way. Even if Jaime had been more a father figure for Cersei's children - which she didn't allow - could have been explained by him being a very nice and attentive uncle.

The idea that people would jump to the conclusion Jaime must be the father of the children is actually a very outlandish notion ... unless the people involved had actually evidence about the twincest. I mean - who in their right mind jumps from the fact 'the children of the black-haired king do not look like him but closely resemble the fair-haired queen' to 'the queen's twin is also fair-haired, therefore he must be the father of the children'.

If Robert and Cersei and Jaime had been Targaryens this might have been a reasonable assumption. But why on earth should anyone believe Cersei and Jaime were having a secret incestuous relationship? It is a vile sin and an abomination.

This is why we should actually consider that Stannis must have really overseen or heard about something that made him believe the relationship of Jaime and Cersei was more than just the sibling bond of twins. The mere looks of the children in combination with Joff's personality couldn't have been enough.

And to be sure - with Stannis living at court for most of Robert's reign he could have seen certain signs. Even more so since chances are not that bad that he wouldn't have spent that much time with Robert on hunts, etc. so that he might have been at the castle while Robert was absent and Cersei/Jaime thus more inclined to have clandestine meetings, etc.

[chrisdaw]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

The dagger is tangential to the Lannisters trying to kill Jon.

Ned and Robert aren't speaking about the fact that Robert's family in law may or may not have commited treason... because Ned needs evidence lol. Even if Ned and Robert were on the best terms, he'd still need to collect evidence before airing such heavy accusation, that is common sense. But there is absolutely no reason for Ned to hide the fact that he has found a dagger from the Lannisters (allegedly) used to try and kill his son. 

It is absolutely bonkers risking your neck based on that premise and Littlefinger got absolutely bailed both by the fact that Varys decided to keep silence and that Ned just sat on that info.

 

He can't.

He cannot tell that he was misunderstood, Ned would have his head on the second for trying to frame him and Cat.

He can misremember with a lot of people, he cannot misremember with the son of Tywin Lannister. This is again logic.

Perhaps a highlord like a Hightower or a Prince of Dorne can get away with that bullshit but Petyr is simple not important enough and whereas he is a valuable, he is not that valuable to let that slide.

 

Ned did not trust him, Robert would mistrustt him right away and the Lannister would want his head.

Even if he does make it short term, umlikely, the victor would always come for him sooner or later. 

The idea that he wasn't risking his neck is quite frankly absurd. The only moment he is too big to fail is during ACOK, before and after that, he is  very much disposable.

 

 

Yeah I disagree, this absolute chain of events you're claiming is nothing more than one possibility and LF does plausibly have the reach and artistry to manoeuvre himself out of it.

[Castellan]

I think Cersei's plan was quite good. If he didn't get himself killed, there was nothing to investigate, and she could try again. If he did, he just drank too much and paid the consequences. No poison to find.

Lancel was a weak link, I admit, who would probably blab if questioned. But that made him easy for her to manipulate as well. And she could always say, Robert had demanded that he wanted strongwine served to him, he was sick of the weaker stuff. Basically if it looks like an accident and there are still parties shoring up her rule, then no-one is going to raise the issue.

She came up with something to deal with an immediate threat. I don't think its convoluted.

 

[astarkchoice]

Lf dagger story does come up a lot but in fairness hes deft enough to get away with it if called out.

Firstly we know king robert won it off LF in one of the many tourneys in an informal bet  , these bets are just informal between men at court theres no offical documents and unless varys little birds hear every single one and write down every word  theres.no way he can know LF is lying here to call him out nor would he be stupid enough to do so without working out LFs angle in doing so 1st.

If caught LF  can of course pretend he got confused with a dozen other bets or so or that he was trying to defuse the growing situation between lannister and stark by defelcting blame to the hated  lannister black sheep 

To back this up we know Lf himself quickly says its not evidence enough of anything  they need stronger proof  ,could have been stolen by anyone and later tells ned to throw it in a river and forget it and try and make peace etc.

[the trees have eyes]

15 hours ago, Groo said:

After he sided with the Lannisters against the Starks he looked ahead and made new plans. I don't think he mapped everything out from the beginning. For example, I'm sure he would have made different plans if Ned had listened to his advice.

He specifically had Lysa write to Catelyn in secret alleging the Lannisters murdered Jon Arryn.  Given Jon Arryn fostered Ned it is extremely unlikely he expected Ned to forget or forgive this.  This is exacerbated by him telling Catelyn that the dagger was Tyrion's, so making it seem that the Lannisters are now murdering Starks too.

You could argue that he did not know Joffrey was illegitimate so was not aware that pointing the Starks and the Lannisters at each other would make his advice to Ned impossible for Ned to follow but I feel he must know Ned won't take it.  Once Ned reveals Joffrey's infidelity I feel his advice is really meant to be ignored but is part of setting the trap.  If he does bring the gold cloaks in on Ned's side Ned is in his debt and probably enough to offset any accusations of financial impropriety from Stannis and secure his position as a "true friend to Ned because Cat asked him to be".   It's hard to see Ned honourable Stark turfing him out of office after that.  So why doesn't he side with Ned?  (He gains no reward from the Lannisters for this: only when Tyrion sends him to arrange Joffrey's marriage to Margaery Tyrell with the offer of Harrenhall as incentive does he get a tangible benefit from serving the Lannisters).

I think we just have to accept that the author likes surprises - and they are major, pivotal moments in the series - and LF is a wild card that allows this to happen. But also, LF was never serious in his offer to Ned and always intended to betray him and his odd fascination with mini-Cat Sansa seems his motivation.

[sweetsunray]

17 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Agree completely. I made a post about this a while ago. Tywin really lucked out at multiple moments:

1. That Robert died when he did meant he wasn't found breaking the King's Peace

2. That Stannis, Robb and Renly didn't just decide to team up on the Lannisters first

3. That Renly died 

4. That Theon took Winterfell

I compare it to Putin. Tywin doubles down, even if it means screwing up, hoping that eventually something will happen that can make it go his way. That tactic works, because eventually someone of the enemies always screws up, with resentment and in-fighting or breaking away as a result. And that's the moment Tywin waits for and strikes. 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon Arryn didn't need a genealogy book to figure it out. Stannis told him. He consulted the book to have ammunition to make his case to Robert.

Yes, you're right.

Edit: I have to say that I love how long your posts always are. Keep up the good work. 

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

He specifically had Lysa write to Catelyn in secret alleging the Lannisters murdered Jon Arryn.  Given Jon Arryn fostered Ned it is extremely unlikely he expected Ned to forget or forgive this.  This is exacerbated by him telling Catelyn that the dagger was Tyrion's, so making it seem that the Lannisters are now murdering Starks too.

Littlefinger clearly used the Jon Arryn situation (Lysa wish to see him dead so that he could not take her son from her) as means to stir up trouble and lure Ned and Cat to court. He would have wanted Ned as Hand because he thought Cat would accompany him.

And then he clearly uses the Cat-Ned connection he has to deepen their mistrust of the Lannisters ... which makes them dependent on him.

9 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

You could argue that he did not know Joffrey was illegitimate so was not aware that pointing the Starks and the Lannisters at each other would make his advice to Ned impossible for Ned to follow but I feel he must know Ned won't take it.  Once Ned reveals Joffrey's infidelity I feel his advice is really meant to be ignored but is part of setting the trap.  If he does bring the gold cloaks in on Ned's side Ned is in his debt and probably enough to offset any accusations of financial impropriety from Stannis and secure his position as a "true friend to Ned because Cat asked him to be".   It's hard to see Ned honourable Stark turfing him out of office after that.  So why doesn't he side with Ned?  (He gains no reward from the Lannisters for this: only when Tyrion sends him to arrange Joffrey's marriage to Margaery Tyrell with the offer of Harrenhall as incentive does he get a tangible benefit from serving the Lannisters).

Littlefinger kind of overplayed his 'the Lannisters are evil' card with Ned. When Ned figures out the twincest and the possible involvement of Cersei's in Robert's death the Jon Arryn lie and the dagger lie implicating the Lannisters (in combination with Bran's fall) make it impossible for Ned to continue to work with Joffrey as a puppet king. But the 'let us use the Lannister to get rid of Stannis and then use the twincest to get rid of Cersei's brats and replace them with Renly' is exactly the kind of thing Littlefinger would have done. Renly is the man who would most likely win a succession struggle in the end if he put forth his claim, due to his popularity and his connections to the Tyrells - and he is also the king Littlefinger could best work with.

He seems to be sincere in his offer to help Ned seize the regency if her were willing to not install Stannis who would give the Realm a new Small Council. If Ned had agreed there, there is little reason to assume that Littlefinger would have sold him to Cersei - with her he hadn't ingratiated himself to the same degree. Not to mention that Cat/Ned were the easier way to Sansa's hand. And Littlefinger already wants her back in AGoT.

When Ned rejects his plans, Littlefinger has to ingratiate himself with the Lannisters ... which is harder than with Cat-Ned but, of course, not impossible. Although he may have actually planned to only help Cersei and the Lannisters to prevent the rise of a King Stannis while being prepared to use his leverage with the City Watch, etc. to hand the city and throne to Renly once he came knocking.

All the later Vale stuff, etc. seems to be plan B stuff that wouldn't have been necessary if Ned had agreed to Littlefinger's plans and played a crucial rule in the regency government they would set up together. Littlefinger's ultimate reward would then be Sansa's hand and a great lordship like Harrenhal and one imagines he would have been pretty content with that.

[Jekse]

On 1/26/2023 at 9:27 PM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Tyrion should have dealt with Littlefinger when he got to King's Landing in ACoK.

Indeed. This is a major plot-hole.