Is Aegon a Targaryen or a Blackfyre?

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

But maybe he's nicer to a wife than to a dwarf who beats him at chess.

I think people are realistically overstating the importance of the Cyvasse incident. Yes it wasn't great but it's not like he had a huge all-encompassing fit of rage, and Tyrion goaded him into it. I don't think it's indicative of how he usually treats people who aren't trying to wind him up. Of course it probably will end up being foreshadowing for a number of things, but in real life it would be usually be unwise to base perception of someone on one single incident, in my view.

[EggBlue]

3 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Correct.  And when Tyrion sent Rosamund to Dorne with Myrcella to serve as a double for Myrcella, he was not planning for .... whatever has happened or is about to happen.

I think the real difference between you and me here is how we see Varys's character. I read the character as a pure opportunist. you and William Srark ,I guess, see him as a grand schemer. we do not know whether Varys was planning this from the start or that he planned it all 5 yrs later after observing Robert's court, just in case it could be used. how was what Varys and Illyrio did by keeping Aegon different from what Rogars pulled off during and after the Dance?

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

The truth is that I'm not the only one having a hard time swallowing all this: Tyrion has doubts, Doran too.

We are not in the simple case of a reader refusing to suspend his disbelief but a story that is being questioned by two characters in-universe, then a reader who elaborates on what is being questioned. Besides the Blackfyre hints are very hard to ignore and makes more sense than the baby swap thing.

sure, they question his identity. how could they not? Aegon could be the Aegon as much as Ramsay's wife is Arya as far as in-universe people are concerned. but it has nothing to do with the logistics of the plan. and as reader , I would have had an easier time looking for alternatives to Aegon's identity if Jon Con didn't see his deceased friend in the boy's face or Varys didn't confess to a dying Kevan. 

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

None of this requires to see the future, unlike the baby swap allegedly made by Varys.

Again, that's a question of whether Varys planned it from the get-go or he had just taken the opportunity. read above.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Why are you using the plural? He only saved one child and let the other one die, with Elia's blessing supposedly.

I copied it from a post I had made previously about the plausibility of Vary's initial plan to swap both kids to buy time for their escape. Only they were out of time, and Rhaenys had fled to her dad's chambers. However, it is not far-fetched to think if Elia was pressed with the choice, she might choose to send the heir to safety, just like Helaena Targaryen did back in the Dance. 

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Well that's a pity because it is the only plausible way to make the baby swap with Elia's approval. But I don't think she would agree to stay behind with Rhaenys so they could die together, even though Varys could save the three of them by taking advantage of the chaos outside of the Red Keep.

You say that as if anyone could predict how bloody sack would be! Ned Stark certainly didn't; to be honest, the fate of Elia and her children was utterly unprecedented. There was no reason to think they'll die. there was every reason to think they'll be hostages against Targaryens and Martells, .there was every reason to think Aegon was in more danger, and there was every reason to believe if any of them might face death, it would be Aegon. especially because Targaryen girls were pretty much out of line of succession.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

As Tyrion said it's a good story for bards, but hard to swallow for a clever person in-universe. I'm doing my best to think like one in this same universe, nothing else.

Tyrion talks too much.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

2 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think people are realistically overstating the importance of the Cyvasse incident. Yes it wasn't great but it's not like he had a huge all-encompassing fit of rage, and Tyrion goaded him into it. I don't think it's indicative of how he usually treats people who aren't trying to wind him up. Of course it probably will end up being foreshadowing for a number of things, but in real life it would be usually be unwise to base perception of someone on one single incident, in my view.

People have noticed parallels between Aegon and Daeron the Young Dragon, who was quite arrogant.

[Willam Stark]

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

sure, they question his identity. how could they not?

This means that I'm not just being picky here, even in-universe this baby swap makes little to no sense. You were suggesting the opposite before, that's not the case.

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

but it has nothing to do with the logistics of the plan. and as reader , I would have had an easier time looking for alternatives to Aegon's identity if Jon Con didn't see his deceased friend in the boy's face or Varys didn't confess to a dying Kevan. 

Come on, JonCon is not that blind, he does see the differences between the lad and his alleged father like the color of their eyes. As for Varys, he's not technically lying, Young Griff real name is Aegon and is here (at Westeros) when he was talking to Kevan, who didn't share his memory of Rhaegar's son, we've only seen it in his thoughts. We already have a better alternative, but you're dismissing it just because Varys said "No he's here", please.

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

Again, that's a question of whether Varys planned it from the get-go or he had just taken the opportunity. read above.

The thing is that Varys must have planned it in advance to make the baby swap plausible. He was at King's Landing, not in Lys, he couldn't find a baby with Valyrian's features or at least blonde hair, a father willing to sell him to a total stranger and bring the baby back to the nursery so that Elia can pretend to take care of her son in the middle of a Sack. It would take way too much time and can get him killed. It is way easier to flee with the three of them through the secret passages, they had time to do it, looking for a pisswater prince, not so much in a hurry.

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

Only they were out of time, and Rhaenys had fled to her dad's chambers. However, it is not far-fetched to think if Elia was pressed with the choice, she might choose to send the heir to safety, just like Helaena Targaryen did back in the Dance. 

The Red Keep is not that close to the gates, and there are secret passages almost everywhere. The Lannisters have a long way to go to reach the Red Keep, enough time for 3 to 4 people to escape through the nearest secret passages that Varys knows well. Not comparable to Helaena who was facing Blood and Cheese when she had to make her choice.

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

You say that as if anyone could predict how bloody sack would be!

Sacks are always bloody, the nobles know it too well.

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

There was no reason to think they'll die. there was every reason to think they'll be hostages against Targaryens and Martells, .there was every reason to think Aegon was in more danger, and there was every reason to believe if any of them might face death, it would be Aegon. especially because Targaryen girls were pretty much out of line of succession.

They were already held hostage by Aerys, if she had the opportunity to flee with her children, which would have been the case if Varys was willing to save them, I don't believe she would have let it go and just stay behind with her daughter to die but would have sought to regain her freedom.

I would add that Varys has dubious loyalty and I don't see how she could trust him with the life of her children. For all she knew, Varys was Aerys' rat and the freak was hostile to her. The deeper I get into this story, the less sense it makes, it's more plausible that he is a Blackfyre through the females but you prefer swallowing a story that you yourself find strange because Varys said "No he's here", which is not a lie again and we're not in Varys' mind when he said those words.

[EggBlue]

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

This means that I'm not just being picky here, even in-universe this baby swap makes little to no sense. You were suggesting the opposite before, that's not the case.

you were being picky when your argument for Aegon=/=Aegon was that the baby swap plot was not logistically possible. and I wasn't suggesting the opposite before. I'm saying there's a distinction between what makes sense for the readers and for the in-universe people. much like Cersei's children's bastardy is a fact for us, readers; but can be very well disputed among the in-universe people.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Come on, JonCon is not that blind, he does see the differences between the lad and his alleged father like the color of their eyes. As for Varys, he's not technically lying, Young Griff real name is Aegon and is here (at Westeros) when he was talking to Kevan, who didn't share his memory of Rhaegar's son, we've only seen it in his thoughts. We already have a better alternative, but you're dismissing it just because Varys said "No he's here", please.

we clearly draw different conclusions from the same line. that's fine.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

The thing is that Varys must have planned it in advance to make the baby swap plausible. He was at King's Landing, not in Lys, he couldn't find a baby with Valyrian's features or at least blonde hair, a father willing to sell him to a total stranger and bring the baby back to the nursery so that Elia can pretend to take care of her son in the middle of a Sack. It would take way too much time and can get him killed. It is way easier to flee with the three of them through the secret passages, they had time to do it, looking for a pisswater prince, not so much in a hurry.

the fact that royal children may have doublegangers at hand isn't strange or new. as for Kings Landing, it's very weird to assume there aren't Valyrian-looking people in the city.I doubt that they are even all that scarce! it's the place where many Targaryens, Velaryons , Celtigars, and their other relations lived and likely had illegitimate children over the years. moreover, one would imagine a lot of common folk in the three Valyrian-Westerosi islands may be descendants of the common folk Valyrians who had come with the ruling families, making them technically Valyrian. and again, Varys didn't need a perfect match if he just wanted to buy time.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Sacks are always bloody, the nobles know it too well.

nobles also know they usually protect their own ranks. especially when one is from royal blood.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

They were already held hostage by Aerys, if she had the opportunity to flee with her children, which would have been the case if Varys was willing to save them,

when they were Aerys's hostages, Varys had no use in keeping them from their house's overlord. not when he was Varys's employer.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

I don't believe she would have let it go and just stay behind with her daughter to die but would have sought to regain her freedom.

you're repeating.

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

I would add that Varys has dubious loyalty and I don't see how she could trust him with the life of her children. For all she knew, Varys was Aerys' rat and the freak was hostile to her.

Varys is very convincing. it's quite funny how everyone in the story hates him, everyone thinks they know him and know they shouldn't trust him, yet everyone thinks they can use him. 

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

The deeper I get into this story, the less sense it makes, it's more plausible that he is a Blackfyre through the females but you prefer swallowing a story that you yourself find strange because Varys said "No he's here", which is not a lie again and we're not in Varys' mind when he said those words.

at the end of the day , Blackfyre plot is just a popular theory. how about you don't treat it like a fact?

[Gilbert Green]

5 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think people are realistically overstating the importance of the Cyvasse incident. Yes it wasn't great but it's not like he had a huge all-encompassing fit of rage, and Tyrion goaded him into it. I don't think it's indicative of how he usually treats people who aren't trying to wind him up. Of course it probably will end up being foreshadowing for a number of things, but in real life it would be usually be unwise to base perception of someone on one single incident, in my view.

Well I'm not sure what overstatements you have in mind.

Children I know have had tantrums and overturned game-boards.  It happens.  I'm not saying YG deserves to burn in hell forever.  I'm not even saying he deserves to go to jail for life.  I'm not even saying he deserves to be evicted from school.  But it does seem, at the very least, that he is not mature enough to be a member of the High School Chess Club.  And if he can't handle the stress of a High School Chess Club, how can he rule the 7 Kingdoms? 

I can't see Robb Stark overturning chess boards; or Jon Snow; or Frog Martell.

And YG does not have the next 5 books to grow and mature.  Power is already being thrust upon him.  What we see now is probably what we are going to get.  Only worse, because this otherwise perfectly nice kid has not even begun to experience REAL stress yet.

I think this is a pretty good omen that this kid, whoever he is, is not the Prince that was Promised that was predicted by the HOTU vision.

[Gilbert Green]

5 hours ago, EggBlue said:

I think the real difference between you and me here is how we see Varys's character. I read the character as a pure opportunist. you and William Srark ,I guess, see him as a grand schemer. we do not know whether Varys was planning this from the start or that he planned it all 5 yrs later after observing Robert's court, just in case it could be used. how was what Varys and Illyrio did by keeping Aegon different from what Rogars pulled off during and after the Dance?

I'm not sure where we disagree here at all.  What we know of Varys' is only guesses; only theories.  And those theories that postulate too-grand schemes are less plausible than others might be.

I think that when Varys smuggled Aegon out of KL, he was doing so for reasons that were more or less evident and immediate at the time, and not necessarily because clearly he anticipated that in 16 years he would backing a bid for the Iron Throne by this kid or by an impostor. 

I think alot of things have happened since then.  Rhaella gave birth to a daughter on Dragonstone.  Willem Darry died.  Viserys revealed himself from "all accounts" to be half mad.  The Red Viper murdered Lord Yronwood.  Viserys died on the Dothraki Sea.  Dany hatched some dragons.  Etc. Etc. Etc.

My own idea is that Mellario has a connection to the Blackfyres.  Therefore there has been a vague Blackfyre/Martell alliance ever since Doran married Mellario and Mellario gave birth to Arianne (and yes, Doran probably did marry for love to some extent- it was not necessarily all part of a Grand Scheme).  So when Varys smuggled Aegon out of KL, he was merely helping his ally Doran by saving Doran's nephew.  Other deveiopements arise later, because as we all know, those Blackfyres just cannot seem to stop scheming.  But they need not involve super-human levels of foresight.

Just a theory.  You could come up with other ones.  But my main point is that until we know the details, we cannot claim to know that Varys has some kind of unrealistic grand plan.

[LynnS]

11 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

I'm not sure why anyone would wish that on Sansa.  He's a bit of a bully.  But maybe he's nicer to a wife than to a dwarf who beats him at chess.

He is immature and something of a typical teenager.  He has some growing up to do, but I can imagine him as Sansa's Prince of Dragonflies.  I hope that at least one of her romantic stories comes through for her in the end.  That union could be something that joins North and South, fire and ice together.   I imagine it as an end of story event.

[StarkTullies]

My thoughts have long been "definitely not Rhaegar's son, probably a Blackfyre, maybe neither".  The bullet point list in my head of pros and cons for Targaryen vs Blackfyre made me much more open to the possibility that he is a Targaryen (still unlikely, in my opinion), and reading the things already posted, I guess I don't have much new to say.

So ultimately, I don't know.  Aegon isn't an end-game character, though: he's only important in how he impacts Dany's means of claiming the throne (real or not, and whether Dany believes he is real or not, I imagine her means of displacing the person who "stole her throne" will be brutal).  The only relevance on whether or not Aegon is real is what it tells us about Varys.  I don't think we'll ever know for sure if Aegon is real unless Varys is made a POV character in an Epilogue or Prologue chapter; it's not like we can trust anything Varys says, even to a dying man.

[Craving Peaches]

7 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Well I'm not sure what overstatements you have in mind.

I just don't think his entire character should be judged on that one incident. I have read people say it means he will go mad like Aerys which I think is an overstatement.

7 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

But it does seem, at the very least, that he is not mature enough to be a member of the High School Chess Club.  And if he can't handle the stress of a High School Chess Club, how can he rule the 7 Kingdoms? 

I think the problem is that likely no one had tried to wind him up or annoy him before Tyrion. I don't really think it's that much of an issue. But I could be wrong.

7 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

I think this is a pretty good omen that this kid, whoever he is, is not the Prince that was Promised that was predicted by the HOTU vision.

I don't think he is either, but not because he got stroppy after being wound up by Tyrion.

[Raven Princling]

I am not sure, to be honest. I certainly want him to be, and I like him as a character and am even rooting for him, although I know there is a very good chance, he will not survive the story. If he is a fake, I just do not understand why would Varys make that (very nice and well written) speech to Kevan and lie to a man who was about to die? What would be the point? 

And while I wish we would get a concrete answer at a certain point, I do not think it will ultimately matter in the end. There's even a possibility that if Geroge finishes the series, he will never give us the answer and it will remain a mystery.

Power resides where men believe it resides. And if Aegon takes the throne and is a good king, his actual genetics will not matter. There were Targaryen kings who were true heirs but made horrible kings or even tyrants. If he is a Blackfyre, he has the basically the same bloodline as the Targaryens and there is a good chance dragons would like him the same way they like Ben Plumm. 

[LynnS]

19 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think people are realistically overstating the importance of the Cyvasse incident. Yes it wasn't great but it's not like he had a huge all-encompassing fit of rage, and Tyrion goaded him into it. I don't think it's indicative of how he usually treats people who aren't trying to wind him up. Of course it probably will end up being foreshadowing for a number of things, but in real life it would be usually be unwise to base perception of someone on one single incident, in my view.

We'll soon find out what his education and upbringing have made of him.  Perhaps he will develop a mind of his own and upset the playing board and scatter the pieces.  

[Lost Melnibonean]

Aegon is the Blackfyre. It is known. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

On 1/30/2023 at 5:29 PM, EggBlue said:

then there's the fact that I like him to be the real deal! and that's because if Varys turns out to be a Blackfyre with a long-term plan, it'll ruin the character of Varys for me.

It could be that Aegon is a Blackfyre but Varys doesn't know it.

Varys may really think that Aegon really is the Pisswater Prince, which would give a little more weight to his speech to Kevan about cultivation and experience trumping blood and entitlement.

But perhaps Illyrio played his friend false, and raised his own son as the Pisswater Prince raised to believe himself a Targaryen, and disguised as Young Griff (this is getting confusing). This version of events would go against the Varys-Serra BF theory, but it seems like a valid alternative to that one, given what we know and don't know.

[Rondo]

Aegon is a Blackfyre.  The clues all point that way.  Varys told a tale of baby switching to Kevan but it has a lot of holes.  The biggest hole is Elia.  A mother would not agree to play along and let one child die.  I think Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys died.  

[EggBlue]

3 hours ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

It could be that Aegon is a Blackfyre but Varys doesn't know it.

Varys may really think that Aegon really is the Pisswater Prince, which would give a little more weight to his speech to Kevan about cultivation and experience trumping blood and entitlement.

But perhaps Illyrio played his friend false, and raised his own son as the Pisswater Prince raised to believe himself a Targaryen, and disguised as Young Griff (this is getting confusing). This version of events would go against the Varys-Serra BF theory, but it seems like a valid alternative to that one, given what we know and don't know.

that's better. but still, that's a little confusing and it won't help with Daenerys situation. Idk . guess will see if he is a Blackfyre in the next book. I somehow doubt this one takes till Dream of Spring. 

[Aldarion]

I don't think we will ever get to know: rather, he will be used to explore the "power lies where people believe it lies". People will consider him either a Targaryen or a Blackfyre depending on what they want him to be. Connington believes him to be Rhaegar's son, while Daenerys may come to believe him to be fake if she decides she wants him to be fake.

As for what he really is, I'm kinda on the fence there... but I also don't really care. The best kings Hungary has had became kings either by marring the queen (Sigismund of Luxembourg) or by being elected by nobility (Matthias Corvinus). It would be kinda appropriate if he turned out to be a Blackfyre yet ended up a better ruler than Daenerys.

5 hours ago, Rondo said:

Aegon is a Blackfyre.  The clues all point that way.  Varys told a tale of baby switching to Kevan but it has a lot of holes.  The biggest hole is Elia.  A mother would not agree to play along and let one child die.  I think Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys died.  

Rhaenys however could have been married off to Robert's son if he ended up having one. She was nowhere near the threat that surviving Aegon would have been so it is possible Elia may have concluded she would not be in a real danger.

Still, it is a consideration that argues against Aegon being legit.

[kissdbyfire]

45 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

I don't think we will ever get to know

I agree, and I think it would be an interesting non-solution solution to the puzzle. 
On Elia, .Rhaenys and Aegon and how a mother would never let one child die to save another, I recommend reading or watching Sophie’s Choice. 

[Kienn]

On 2/1/2023 at 3:29 AM, StarkTullies said:

it's not like we can trust anything Varys says, even to a dying man.

Do you have examples of Varys lying about anything?

[Aldarion]

7 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I agree, and I think it would be an interesting non-solution solution to the puzzle. 
On Elia, .Rhaenys and Aegon and how a mother would never let one child die to save another, I recommend reading or watching Sophie’s Choice. 

Agreed. She would definitely try to save both if possible, but she's not going to sacrifice one child just because she couldn't save another. Plus, as I mentioned, there was every reason to believe Rhaenys safe - if Rhaenys could be betrothed to Robert's heir she could be used to secure Robert's reign, meaning that there was no reason to believe her in danger. Aegon however was a clear threat that could not be safely handled in such a way, so he was obviously in danger of being killed.