NFL next- The Superb Owl you hate

[grozeng]

Could it come off as if he is holding off until Reid retires in his interviews?   Personally, I can't believe the Cardinals didn't take him.  But they didn't even interview him.

[mcbigski]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Eagles were a bit of smoke and mirrors. They feasted on a lot of subpar QBs and offenses. They got smoked basically every time they faced a top 10ish QB.

Less so than the Vikings, but they lost the super bowl and one other game when Hurts wasn't, right?

That being said, I did bet the Vikings this week at +4500 to win the superbowl next year.  Seemed like a ridiculous price when the Jets were going for +2800.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

28 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Less so than the Vikings, but they lost the super bowl and one other game when Hurts wasn't, right?

That being said, I did bet the Vikings this week at +4500 to win the superbowl next year.  Seemed like a ridiculous price when the Jets were going for +2800.

I said their defense was. I believe they gave up over 30 to all but one legit QBs they faced this year and stomped everyone else. The Eagles are the fourth team with the number one pass defense to make it to the Owl. The other three went 3-0 and allowed a combined 39 points. The Eagles had an elite pass rush, but the back seven wasn't nearly as strong.

As for the Vikings, .1% chance that cashes. This team was no different from the '21 team that missed the playoffs. Only difference is they lost a lot of close games that season while they won almost all of them this year. They're a 9-8 team next year. And we've got to deal with the Kirk situation. He regressed this year and was bailed out by JJ catching so many YOLO passes from him. They need to draft a QB either this year or next, and if they do it this year and the season doesn't start well they'll bench Kirk. 

It is weird though the Jets were favored that much more considering we don't even know who their QB will be. Carr won't be enough and I doubt they're going to get A.A.Ron, which still might not be enough because he looked like a shell of himself this year even before he broke his thumb. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

50 minutes ago, grozeng said:

Could it come off as if he is holding off until Reid retires in his interviews?   Personally, I can't believe the Cardinals didn't take him.  But they didn't even interview him.

Obviously race and reports of being a poor interview have hurt him, but he's not just the guy standing next to the guy. He's that plus he has Jordan. That probably also has some teams spooked. Still, there's no reason some of these nobodies are getting selected before him.

[mcbigski]

17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I said their defense was. I believe they gave up over 30 to all but one legit QBs they faced this year and stomped everyone else. The Eagles are the fourth team with the number one pass defense to make it to the Owl. The other three went 3-0 and allowed a combined 39 points. The Eagles had an elite pass rush, but the back seven wasn't nearly as strong.

As for the Vikings, .1% chance that cashes. This team was no different from the '21 team that missed the playoffs. Only difference is they lost a lot of close games that season while they won almost all of them this year. They're a 9-8 team next year. And we've got to deal with the Kirk situation. He regressed this year and was bailed out by JJ catching so many YOLO passes from him. They need to draft a QB either this year or next, and if they do it this year and the season doesn't start well they'll bench Kirk. 

It is weird though the Jets were favored that much more considering we don't even know who their QB will be. Carr won't be enough and I doubt they're going to get A.A.Ron, which still might not be enough because he looked like a shell of himself this year even before he broke his thumb. 

If they're a playoff team, then they are at least a single digit percent chance.  Jump on that.  I think they'll be one of 14 teams to make the playoffs so 45 to 1 seems fine.  Plus the D should be better in BFlo year 1.  Also have the Dolphins at +3500 and Eagles at +900.  All smallish bets but if the Vikings have like a 30% to upset in the wild card round I'm looking pretty good on that one.  Everyone loves Dan Campbell but that division is wide open from what I see.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

23 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

If they're a playoff team, then they are at least a single digit percent chance.  Jump on that.  I think they'll be one of 14 teams to make the playoffs so 45 to 1 seems fine.  Plus the D should be better in BFlo year 1.  Also have the Dolphins at +3500 and Eagles at +900.  All smallish bets but if the Vikings have like a 30% to upset in the wild card round I'm looking pretty good on that one.  Everyone loves Dan Campbell but that division is wide open from what I see.

Vikings are a fringe playoff team if Rodgers stays with the Packers and isn't washed (which is debatable). Lions probably will regress a bit too while Chicago should get better. I don't really know who to pick, but I have little faith in the team if Kirk is declining. 

Idk what the odds are, but if you're looking to lay down some early money, bet the Jags if the number is high enough. They're going to be really good next year if they can add to the defense and get Trevor a legit weapon.

[mcbigski]

I think the Jags were about 25 to 1.  Looked it up, +2500 on fanduel a little higher on DK.  So they have the same odds as the Lions and Jets, better than the Dolphins and Rams, and just worse than the Chargers.  On that site the Vikings are +4000, but still is Minnesota a lower chance to win the superbowl than the Lions or Jets or Rams?

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

29 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

I think the Jags were about 25 to 1.  Looked it up, +2500 on fanduel a little higher on DK.  So they have the same odds as the Lions and Jets, better than the Dolphins and Rams, and just worse than the Chargers.  On that site the Vikings are +4000, but still is Minnesota a lower chance to win the superbowl than the Lions or Jets or Rams?

 

None of those four teams is winning it next year. Jags actually could. 25 to 1 odds aren't bad. 

[mcbigski]

Youre the point master, stick it in.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I think that type of gambling is still illegal here. Last I heard you have to drive to Iowa to place those bets.

[Maithanet]

If the Jets sign Carr, I'd say 30-1 sounds about right for their odds to win the SB.  They would need to make additional moves and hope things go right, but it would be somewhat similar to the Rams situation last year.  Yes, the Rams were better in 2019 than the Jets were this year, but the Jets have more talent still on rookie contracts than the Rams did, so the possibility for significant improvement does exist.  I would also note that 30-1 odds are not particularly great.

If the Jets sign Rodgers then they become a really high variance team with a high ceiling but an even lower floor than Carr (Rodgers could be washed, and it will take a lot to bring him on).  At that point 20-1 seems reasonable, but probably not more than that.  I still struggle to see how the Rodgers Jets defeat the AFC big dogs like Buffalo, Cincy and KC. 

But of course, any betting calculus must consider the strong possibility that the Jets do not land either Carr or Rodgers, in which case the chances of them winning the Super Bowl is very poor indeed. 

[dbunting]

I play cards with a guy who just cleaned up. Preseason he got KC to make the SB 35-1, bet 100. KC to win the SB 65-1, bet 100. Won almost 10,000. Everyone had Buffalo or Cinnci or lol...Denver, coming out of the AFC after Tyreek left for Miami.

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, dbunting said:

I play cards with a guy who just cleaned up. Preseason he got KC to make the SB 35-1, bet 100. KC to win the SB 65-1, bet 100. Won almost 10,000. 

Those are absolutely ridiculous odds, I don't know where he could have gotten that.  See here, the Aug 2022 odds on KC to win the super bowl were 10 to 1.  You could maybe shop around and find 12 to 1 or something, but 65 to 1 is absurd.  It makes me wonder if this guy is just telling tales.

[dbunting]

52 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Those are absolutely ridiculous odds, I don't know where he could have gotten that.  See here, the Aug 2022 odds on KC to win the super bowl were 10 to 1.  You could maybe shop around and find 12 to 1 or something, but 65 to 1 is absurd.  It makes me wonder if this guy is just telling tales.

I'll dig more into the details but he isn't one to talk crap. I'll play dumb next time I see him and ask to see the slip, I'm sure it was online here in Michigan.

Yeah I am definitely gonna ask more questions because those don't match my searches either! wtf

Edited February 15, 2023 by dbunting
gullability

[Maithanet]

12 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Yeah I am definitely gonna ask more questions because those don't match my searches either! wtf

Yeah, do that.  I'm extremely skeptical that you could even find 20 to 1 on the Chiefs at any point in 2022, let alone 65 to 1.  Just from a common sense perspective, 65 to 1 odds indicates that you have less than half the chance of a random team (there are 32 teams in the league).  The teams getting those odds this coming year are the Titans, Seahawks and Bears, teams that are less than 50% to even make the playoffs.  The Chiefs had some challenges last year, but they are nothing like those squads. 

[Maithanet]

On another note, it's interesting that the Chiefs were totally vindicated in trading Hill.  They looked at their salary cap situation and basically realized that there was no way to sign all of their stars.  With Mahomes entering the first year of his 10 year, $450 million contract, they needed to free up room.  They wanted to resign OT Brown since they just traded for him and protecting Mahomes was a priority.  But they just couldn't extend everybody, and of those players, Hill would command by far the most on the market.  The picks they got from Miami were used on cornerback Trent McDuffie (who started in the SB) and WR Sky Moore (who scored a td in the SB).  Not bad return for a guy that they didn't have the cap to resign anyway.

[Argonath Diver]

More anecdotal evidence - a cocktail waitress I work with is currently at the KC parade, staying in a hotel there on her winnings on a similar buy. She's apparently a huge Chiefs fan who has put 50 bucks a year on them for ages, and got it at 10-1 pre-season. Her FB update today was along the lines of "Almost spent my Chiefs-to-win ticket on the hotel and last night already, I gotta get back to work". So, yeah, glad she and her pals are having a good time. 450 bucks goes fast even in Kansas City.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Talk of the day seems to be the Bears might draft Young and trade Fields. If they do that it will be one of the dumbest moves ever made. 

[Mexal]

9 hours ago, dbunting said:

I play cards with a guy who just cleaned up. Preseason he got KC to make the SB 35-1, bet 100. KC to win the SB 65-1, bet 100. Won almost 10,000. Everyone had Buffalo or Cinnci or lol...Denver, coming out of the AFC after Tyreek left for Miami.

I find it kinda weird that everyone had Cinci coming out of the AFC preseason when Bengals had, at best, the 10th best odds to win the Super Bowl and wasn't even favored to win their division. Shit, in a lot of places, they weren't even expected to make the playoffs. Buffalo though, they were the preseason darling so that makes total sense. 

[dbunting]

Ok, haven't talked to DeShaun yet, but another guy who was there remembers him saying he had to make a couple other bets to get those numbers? But that he remembers him saying he already got 3500 for making the SB and if they won it was an additional 6800. I missed the extra bets part and assumed 35-1, 65-1. Again this guy isn't a talker, the dealer asked who all had bets, or any crazy prop bets, one guy had $1,750 on KC moneyline, and DeShaun then mentioned his bets.