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NFL next- The Superb Owl you hate

DireWolfSpirit

By DireWolfSpirit,
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dbunting Council Member

dbunting

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Strange timing at the least.  Georgia stud and top prospect Jalen Carter has arrest warrant issued today for reckless driving and racing(i think). He was supposedly racing along with two other vehicles after they had their National Championship parade and one car wrecked killing two people, Georgia staffers, who were in a Georgia owned Expedition.   

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Mr. Chatywin et al. Council Member

Mr. Chatywin et al.

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Raiders say they're not interested in Rodgers if he wants out. Jets still seem like the obvious landing spot. It's really hard to see another scenario unless the Niners can make something happen. The idea that he'd leave to go to a team like the Titans is hard to fathom. And the Packers are not exactly in a great position to keep him. The interesting scenarios I haven't heard mentioned much are possibly trading him to the Steelers or Pats. Regardless, it seems all roads sans the Niners lead to him never even making an Owl again, assuming he plays one or two more years. 

Edited by Tywin et al.
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Nictarion Council Member

Nictarion

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5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Raiders say they're not interested in Rodgers if he wants out. Jets still seem like the obvious landing spot. It's really hard to see another scenario unless the Niners can make something happen. The idea that he'd leave to go to a team like the Titans is hard to fathom. And the Packers are not exactly in a great position to keep him. The interesting scenarios I haven't heard mentioned much are possibly trading him to the Steelers or Pats. Regardless, it seems all roads sans the Niners lead to him never even making an Owl again, assuming he plays one or two more years. 

You shut your filthy mouth!

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dbunting Council Member

dbunting

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9 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Raiders say they're not interested in Rodgers if he wants out. Jets still seem like the obvious landing spot. It's really hard to see another scenario unless the Niners can make something happen. The idea that he'd leave to go to a team like the Titans is hard to fathom. And the Packers are not exactly in a great position to keep him. The interesting scenarios I haven't heard mentioned much are possibly trading him to the Steelers or Pats. Regardless, it seems all roads sans the Niners lead to him never even making an Owl again, assuming he plays one or two more years. 

I don't think the Steelers would make much sense. They just spent a 1st rd on Pickett, who played decent for a rookie. To get Rodgers they would have to give up a lot (picks) and pay him which means cutting players, kicking the can down the road, and/or limits talent they can add to help him.

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Maithanet Council Member

Maithanet

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I think that Rodgers trade value might be lower than you think.  At the very least it is a LOT lower than it would have been last offseason.  Rodgers will turn 40 in December. If we look at the sample of very good/great quarterbacks and when they had their last really good season:

Brees - Last good regular season at 40, although his arm looked worn out by the playoffs.  Retired at 41.

P. Manning - Last good season at 38, Defense won him a championship at 39.  Retired at 39. 

Big Ben - Last good season at 38, retired at 39.

Rivers - Final good season at 37, so-so season at 39, then retired.

Brady - Final good season at 44.  Retired at 45. 

 

So, Brady is a huge outlier here.  Of the other four, three retired at Rodgers current age, while Brees had one more good season at 40.  If you are comparing overall injury history, Rodgers has a lot more in common with the first four than Brady.  There is a decent chance that Rodgers will either not be good again, will get injured during the season, or will be worn out by playoff time and just lose his first game (as Brees did in his final two seasons).  Hard to trade too much draft capital for that kind of risk.

In addition, Rodgers is a pain in the ass, he's always creating drama, and his talent is no longer so overwhelming that teams will just put up with it. 

At the moment, I agree that Rodgers to the Jets makes some sense, although I actually could actually make an argument for Carr being a better fit.  I'm not sure any other team would even want him.  Trading for Rodgers is basically going all-in on this season.  If the Jets made that trade, their SB chances improve from like 15th in the league to....6th or so?  Definitely still behind KC, CIN, BUF, PHI and probably SF as well.  That's better odds than the Jets have had in probably 20 years, so I could see them taking the shot, but it's still high risk-high reward. 

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Maithanet Council Member

Maithanet

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Just now, grozeng said:

I really don't want Rodgers.  I don't want the Jets to give up their first rounder for him, and that is what it will probably take.  I would rather they get Carr and just pay him the money but keep their pick.

I'm not sure it would take a first.  CBS sports had an article where a former agent said he thought it would take a 2nd and a conditional 2nd or 3rd next year (conditional on him playing more than one year).  If it were just a 2nd rounder (or maybe with another day 3 pick), that's hardly a cost that would set the franchise back.  The question is just whether Rodgers actually helps.

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Mr. Chatywin et al. Council Member

Mr. Chatywin et al.

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1 hour ago, dbunting said:

I don't think the Steelers would make much sense. They just spent a 1st rd on Pickett, who played decent for a rookie. To get Rodgers they would have to give up a lot (picks) and pay him which means cutting players, kicking the can down the road, and/or limits talent they can add to help him.

Maith beat me to it, I don’t think Rodgers will cost all that much for a variety of reasons. He’s old, hard to deal with, probably won’t play more than two years and it’s more likely he’ll continue to decline instead of bounce back and his salary is a nightmare. Plus there probably won’t be a huge market for him, especially if teams think the Packers are trying to get rid of him.

Also, Pickett played in 13 games and threw 7 TDs against 9 Ints. Given he’s about to turn 25 I think it’s safe to say the Steelers made a mistake drafting him.

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James Arryn Council Member

James Arryn

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Increased ~ insider 9er chatter that missing last season may have been fatal to Trey Lance’s status within the org, not so much thinking he’s a bust, just that their team cannot really afford much more development time with so many prime time stars getting older, and he’s obviously going to need it after basically only playing a bit above 1 season of football in the 4.5 years since HS. Now Purdy’s increasingly uncertain timeline for return probably at least gets him a lot of reps come camp, and I guess they’ll decide there, but I can see names like Rodgers being attached to the Niners again if this chatter persists.
 

Another aspect is that while Lance IS fast…clocked at 22 mph more than once in college, which is elite for almost any position, let alone qb…he’s a somewhat slow starter, almost the inverse of Purdy in that way…and that he has yet to look anywhere near as comfortable running with the ball in limited pro action as he did in college. Now imo the way Shanahan has run him has been a big part of it, but I am not sure his kind of speed translates to designed runs as much as it does improv. Or at least until he gets his confidence back, the lack of suddenness might just be uncertainty. But anyways, this is part of the picture. And to be completely fair, there are also ‘insiders’ saying it’s Lance’s job to lose, though they’ve gotten a bit quieter lately.
 

Personally, and this is probably just frustration talking, I mostly want a relative lack of insanity. I’m not even sure how that translates to decision making, just want off the broken roller coaster for a bit. Pretty resigned to the probability that that’s not going to happen, though.

Edited by James Arryn
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grozeng Council Member

grozeng

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I'm not sure it would take a first.  CBS sports had an article where a former agent said he thought it would take a 2nd and a conditional 2nd or 3rd next year (conditional on him playing more than one year).  If it were just a 2nd rounder (or maybe with another day 3 pick), that's hardly a cost that would set the franchise back.  The question is just whether Rodgers actually helps.

Favre was a conditional pick that ended up being a 3rd rounder, I think.  So a 2nd for Rodgers isn't that bad, but probably still a lot for a 39 year old QB.   If you have to pay his salary too, I probably would still rather have Carr and the pick.

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Maithanet Council Member

Maithanet

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The salary is definitely a bigger problem than the pick.  If Rodgers was going to be on a one year, $25 million deal, then I think a first rounder would be worth it to roll the dice.  But a cap hit of nearly 60 million is pretty disqualifying for most NFL teams who just don't have that kind of room.  The Jets are lucky enough to have a lot of their stars under rookie deals, but even still, I don't know how easily they can swing that. 

Pretty ridiculous how much more Rodgers is getting paid than Mahomes. 

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