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DireWolfSpirit
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1 hour ago, Rhom said:

Are there any concerns that the league owners are colluding to prevent a new precedent of massive guaranteed deals?

It's an open secret. That said I wouldn't immediately assume collusion is behind this. Teams have to give up their firsts in '23 and '24 if a deal is struck before the draft. A number of QB needy teams are drafting high this year and may just want to wait assuming their pick this year has more value than their pick in '25. Additionally, some of the other obvious landing spots (Dolphins and Niners) would need to do some creative stuff to facilitate a sign and trade, plus then either team would likely move off from their young QB. And lastly teams always say they won't do X and then a month later the owner/GM are Tony Montana and X is a mound of cocaine. 

What's going to be fascinating is if Burrow, Herbert or Lawrence make similar demands and don't get them in the next few years. Also, the first two have to be laughing at Jones getting $40M AAV. They could each ask for $60M AAV over five with $250M guaranteed if that's what that trashcan got. 

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9 minutes ago, dbunting said:

His leg injuries have to be concerning since he isn't known for his passing skills, remember that because he is a QB.

I didn't see any decline in his ability to run because of them though and I'm 99% sure he could have come back this year, but didn't because of the contract situation. And I think the overwhelming majority of his peers support that.

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Avg pass yds last three years, 2627. Avg Pass tds 19.6.  Avg Rush yards 845. Avg Rush tds 4, I had to go back and check that several times!

Daniel Jones over that same period: 2,859 passing yards, 12 TDs, 476 rush yards, 3.3 TDs. 12 Ints to Lamar's 9.66. He also fumbled more. Jones just got $160M over 4 after three consecutive seasons in which he started more games than he's thrown TD passes in each year. And what's infuriating is people who defend Jones constantly harp on the lack of skill talent around him while Lamar doesn't seem to get that benefit from a lot of the same folks, and that's before we mention Jones has one of the best skill position players in the game...

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For the last three years he gives them 3472 yards and 23.6 tds per year. Is that worth the contract we hear he is asking for?

I think this should be more of an open conversation on QB's salary in general, but it's the going rate now and like I've said before, Lamar probably adds more value to his team than just about any other QB.

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Kylers contract is already not aging well so to compare them isn't the best look. How many on here think Kyler is worth that? BTW, Kyler avg more yards, 3929, and tds 27.6 in the last three years as well. So Lamar is not only not significantly better, he is statistically speaking worse.

Well to be fair I always said loudly I would trade him before I paid him, and if you think that's what the Ravens should do with Lamar then fine. But if they wanted to do that they've gone about it all wrong hoping the can have their cake and eat it too by retaining him below what the new market standard is. And I think the end result if they try to play hardball is going to be a lot of dysfunction for two years that will leave them with no on field successes, they'll lose Lamar for nothing and over that period of time they'll never be unable to develop a roster both for now and tomorrow. 

It's incredibly difficult to see how this goes well for the Ravens.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think this should be more of an open conversation on QB's salary in general, but it's the going rate now and like I've said before, Lamar probably adds more value to his team than just about any other QB.

It's incredibly difficult to see how this goes well for the Ravens.

Why do people keep saying this? His stats are what he adds to the team and they have been declining since 2019, he is not an ascending player. He had a great 2019 and a good 2020 (3762 ttl yds and 33 ttl tds), poor 2021, and poor 2022. In 2021 he had 2 rushing tds, the team lead was 5 so it's not like they had a goal line monster in there taking the tds he used to get. Same thing for 2022. He had 3 and the leader had 4!

If anything this should be a cautionary tale to other teams about changing the whole offense to tailor to one player. Other than 2019 this has been a failure.

 

And I agree, this likely doesn't end well for the Ravens. I just think they are in a unwinnable situation.

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10 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Why do people keep saying this?

Because there's been one throughline throughout his career, the Ravens were bad when he was a rookie before he started then instantly became good and since then they've been a very good team with him and shit without him. Iirc the last two seasons the Ravens were the one seed before Jackson got hurt and once he went down they were awful. The team has done a terrible job surrounding him with talent and despite that he's produced even if the passing stats aren't always amazing. How can we accurately judge him considering he's always had below average skill guys? Just look at the leaps Hurts and Tua made this year when they had awesome skill guys. I personally think Lamar is better than both of them and would have a similar increase in production with a similar supporting cast.

I don't think the issue is that they built a team around Lamar, which by the way they should do, it's that Lamar has covered up their inability to build an offensive unit rich with talent. I believe my Vikings have sent three WRs to the Pro Bowl over the last five or so years that were drafted in the fifth round or later, not to even mention JJ. KJ Osborn is probably a better WR than Lamar has ever played with and he's our fourth option at the moment. 

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I think building your offense around a guy who repeatedly gets hurt and adds value partially on their ability to run is a career limiting choice. This is a sign that he will no longer play with the ravens but may have a sucker willing to pay for him. The ravens have obviously moved on.

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Gets injured and relies on the run game. Hmm, over the last four years...

P1: GS: 53, record: 21-31-1, Comp%: 64%, passing yards: 11,603, TDs: 60, Ints: 34, Rushing yards: 1,708, TDs: 12, fumbles: 42

P2: GS: 54, record: 39-15, Comp%: 63.7%, passing yards: 11,008, TDs: 95, Ints: 35, Rushing yards: 3,372, TDs: 19, fumbles: 30

Who has a one year deal for $32M and who has a four year deal for $160M? Odd, isn't it, considering Player 1 has literally all the downsides of Player 2 people like to mention without the massive upside the latter offers. 

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19 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Gets injured and relies on the run game. Hmm, over the last four years...

P1: GS: 53, record: 21-31-1, Comp%: 64%, passing yards: 11,603, TDs: 60, Ints: 34, Rushing yards: 1,708, TDs: 12, fumbles: 42

P2: GS: 54, record: 39-15, Comp%: 63.7%, passing yards: 11,008, TDs: 95, Ints: 35, Rushing yards: 3,372, TDs: 19, fumbles: 30

Who has a one year deal for $32M and who has a four year deal for $160M? Odd, isn't it, considering Player 1 has literally all the downsides of Player 2 people like to mention without the massive upside the latter offers. 

I'm not sure that showing a shitty deal is shitty is making the argument that you're wanting to make

Edited by Kalnestk Oblast
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10 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

I'm not sure that showing a shitty deal is shitty is making the argument that you're wanting to make

Shitty deals are the cost of doing business with QBs that are at best middling at times. Lamar is at worst the 8th best QB in the league. Do you not find it odd how he's being dealt with? Frankly it's hard to argue the Ravens have been acting in good faith. A few weeks ago a top front office guy said on record that it's hard to get Lamar a star skill player if he wants a big contract. Excuse me, you're suppose to get him that guy while he's on his rookie deal to help him. Instead they traded away his best WR who is mediocre and never tried to develop a passing game despite the fact he could fluidly run a pro offense while at Louisville. They've relied upon him again and again to cover up their mistakes from a personal standpoint and now they're trying to lowball him or seemingly let him go for below market value which also makes no sense. 

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4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Shitty deals are the cost of doing business with QBs that are at best middling at times. Lamar is at worst the 8th best QB in the league. Do you not find it odd how he's being dealt with? Frankly it's hard to argue the Ravens have been acting in good faith. A few weeks ago a top front office guy said on record that it's hard to get Lamar a star skill player if he wants a big contract. Excuse me, you're suppose to get him that guy while he's on his rookie deal to help him. Instead they traded away his best WR who is mediocre and never tried to develop a passing game despite the fact he could fluidly run a pro offense while at Louisville. They've relied upon him again and again to cover up their mistakes from a personal standpoint and now they're trying to lowball him or seemingly let him go for below market value which also makes no sense. 

 I think it's probable that the Ravens are fucking up this deal. Rumors abound that the Ravens are kind of shitty right now as far as management, right? 

At the same time saying that Jackson is the 8th best qb when healthy is not the slam dunk argument that you think it is. Especially if the Ravens actually believe that his injuries are likely to recur and/or not be recovered fully - something that they would be privy to and you would not. This does look like they're hosing him, but you have to reasonably consider the alternative - that they have information about him that indicates he is decidedly not the QB for the future and are treating him as such. 

Which is what their behavior indicates. At the very least it indicates that they are being risk-averse and do not believe he is worth the risk, but believe other teams may view him as worth the risk. 

The better question you should be asking: will any other teams bite on that price? 

 

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11 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

 I think it's probable that the Ravens are fucking up this deal. Rumors abound that the Ravens are kind of shitty right now as far as management, right? 

Yep. 

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At the same time saying that Jackson is the 8th best qb when healthy is not the slam dunk argument that you think it is. Especially if the Ravens actually believe that his injuries are likely to recur and/or not be recovered fully - something that they would be privy to and you would not. 

Right at this moment I think there's only four QBs that are clearly better than Jackson, but to be fair they've all enjoyed playing with so much more talent. That's why I'm not overly critical of Lamar's passing numbers. If you dropped him on the Niners he'd be the favorite to win league MVP assuming he stayed healthy. 

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This does look like they're hosing him, but you have to reasonably consider the alternative - that they have information about him that indicates he is decidedly not the QB for the future and are treating him as such. 

As of right now all we know is that they do want him, but they don't want to pay him. That's been crystal clear for two years.

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Which is what their behavior indicates. At the very least it indicates that they are being risk-averse and do not believe he is worth the risk, but believe other teams may view him as worth the risk. 

The better question you should be asking: will any other teams bite on that price? 

Depends on what the price is. Lamar holds all the cards now unless you believe there are no teams that are even interested. He's not going to get the deal he's been rumored to have asked for, but likewise, other teams will offer more guaranteed money than the reported $133M over five years.

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2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Depends on what the price is. Lamar holds all the cards now unless you believe there are no teams that are even interested. He's not going to get the deal he's been rumored to have asked for, but likewise, other teams will offer more guaranteed money than the reported $133M over five years.

Well, the price right now is effectively 2 1st rounders. The salary is by comparison not as critical an issue and can be worked around in all sorts of ways, but those draft picks are real painful to even consider. 

That's why I'm saying that this is a signal that Jackson is not the future, but they're happy to let other teams make it their problem for a good price. 

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I try to avoid looking directly at / thinking about the Purple Browns, but their player management over the term of Lamar Jackson's career has been curiously inept.

They haven't really seemed to make any moves to get better outside the draft, and they haven't been very remarkable there, either.

Lamar seems like a wildly talented QB, but his receivers have been unexceptional, and so even limited defenses have a chance to get him off the field.

As Tywin mentioned above, the failure to recruit good receivers is baffling.  Sure, it maybe reduces his stats, so perhaps you can point to them during salary negotiations and say, "You aren't worth all the money."  But that defeats the entire purpose of low rookie contracts.  It is puzzling how they have operated over the past few years.

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I think that the Ravens saw how incredible Jackson's offense was in 2019 and decided that if they could field a top 5 defense, they would win the Owl.  That's kinda the opposite of what teams usually do when they hit on a rookie quarterback (the only other example I can think of would be the 2012 Seahawks).  But it's not crazy to think that with Jackson and some middling weapons you'd still have a decent offense, and with a great defense that would be enough.  That sounds like a very Ravens way of thinking about things, given the years they've been successful have always been defense first. 

With hindsight, that looks like clearly the wrong call.  The Ravens have fielded a good, but never great defense.  The result is a team that is always competitive, capable of beating even great teams on a good day, but that relies on Jackson making magic happen, which exposes him to even more risk, and then when he gets hurt...it's over. 

So I guess my conclusion would be that I understand the logic of what the Ravens were doing in 2020-22.  But what they're doing now makes no sense to me. 

Edited by Maithanet
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The fact that New York will be waisting $40 million per on its trash can, does not make Lamar any more injury resistant.

I think his lower body deterioration is getting ready to really kick in and the Ravens are acessing going forward on field production.

Look at the wreck Russell Wilson is now, the Ravens must feel Lamar hasnt got 4-5 good years left, maybe they think hes got about a good season and half and hes the next albatros that Russell has become for Denver?

Edited by DireWolfSpirit
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16 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Gets injured and relies on the run game. Hmm, over the last four years...

P1: GS: 53, record: 21-31-1, Comp%: 64%, passing yards: 11,603, TDs: 60, Ints: 34, Rushing yards: 1,708, TDs: 12, fumbles: 42

P2: GS: 54, record: 39-15, Comp%: 63.7%, passing yards: 11,008, TDs: 95, Ints: 35, Rushing yards: 3,372, TDs: 19, fumbles: 30

Who has a one year deal for $32M and who has a four year deal for $160M? Odd, isn't it, considering Player 1 has literally all the downsides of Player 2 people like to mention without the massive upside the latter offers. 

Cmon man stop including the one great year he had, ONE great year. Look at the last 3 years, he has been bad and he is getting worse. This could be a result of shitty personnel around him, that's absolutely true. That doesn't change the fact that he is getting worse, not better. His running stats are dropping quickly, along with his knees, and that is his strength and always has been.

Like I said, I'd give him 3 years 150 all guaranteed, or even 2 yrs 120 mill and contractually say we would not franchise him after that. I don't see him being viable after three more years and a longer contract could be an anchor around a team.

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9 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Cmon man stop including the one great year he had, ONE great year. Look at the last 3 years, he has been bad and he is getting worse. This could be a result of shitty personnel around him, that's absolutely true. That doesn't change the fact that he is getting worse, not better. His running stats are dropping quickly, along with his knees, and that is his strength and always has been.

Like I said, I'd give him 3 years 150 all guaranteed, or even 2 yrs 120 mill and contractually say we would not franchise him after that. I don't see him being viable after three more years and a longer contract could be an anchor around a team.

Why would I not include his MVP season in which his peers voted him the best player in the league? No one is arguing he's been as good since for an entire season, but he's had stretches where he's and it's fair to wonder if he could have kept up at that level if the Ravens didn't completely mismanage their personal. It's hard to find a team that's done less for their star QB than they have.

As for the contract goes, we're not far apart. He just turned 26. There's no reason to fear paying him until he's 29/30. It's the next contract that should be concerning.

 

I still maintain that if Lamar goes to Miami or San Fran he should be viewed as one of the favorites to win MVP. 

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Why would I not include his MVP season in which his peers voted him the best player in the league? No one is arguing he's been as good since for an entire season, but he's had stretches where he's and it's fair to wonder if he could have kept up at that level if the Ravens didn't completely mismanage their personal. It's hard to find a team that's done less for their star QB than they have.

As for the contract goes, we're not far apart. He just turned 26. There's no reason to fear paying him until he's 29/30. It's the next contract that should be concerning.

 

I still maintain that if Lamar goes to Miami or San Fran he should be viewed as one of the favorites to win MVP. 

Because when you look at the rest of his career that season is a big outlier and he has done nothing (2020 was good but worse than 2019) but get worse since. 

Look at just his last two or three years taking away his name and memories of 2019 and does that look like a 250mill fully guaranteed contract you want to sign? No.

BTW if he went to SF or Miami, how many really good players are they cutting to get that 50-60 mill to fit? Be realistic and look at the numbers and think about how many of the players that make those teams who they are that would have to get released. 

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3 hours ago, dbunting said:

Because when you look at the rest of his career that season is a big outlier and he has done nothing (2020 was good but worse than 2019) but get worse since. 

Look at just his last two or three years taking away his name and memories of 2019 and does that look like a 250mill fully guaranteed contract you want to sign? No.

So what's the alternative? The team is a contender with him and terrible without. Their recent track record suggests that if they let him go they won't be good for a few years and there's no guarantee they'd rebound back into contention in the same period they'd have to pay Lamar. I know there's sticker shock, but $50M AAV for a top 10 QB will be cheap in a few years considering the cap is expected to jump a shit ton during that time period. 

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BTW if he went to SF or Miami, how many really good players are they cutting to get that 50-60 mill to fit? Be realistic and look at the numbers and think about how many of the players that make those teams who they are that would have to get released. 

You can afford to lose a few players if you're going to upgrade your QB that significantly. And my guess is they'd stagger the deal in a way that wouldn't hurt them too much in year one.

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31 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So what's the alternative? The team is a contender with him and terrible without. Their recent track record suggests that if they let him go they won't be good for a few years and there's no guarantee they'd rebound back into contention in the same period they'd have to pay Lamar. I know there's sticker shock, but $50M AAV for a top 10 QB will be cheap in a few years considering the cap is expected to jump a shit ton during that time period. 

You can afford to lose a few players if you're going to upgrade your QB that significantly. And my guess is they'd stagger the deal in a way that wouldn't hurt them too much in year one.

We are just coming from different perspectives. I don't see the Lamar from the last two seasons as a significant upgrade.

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42 minutes ago, dbunting said:

We are just coming from different perspectives. I don't see the Lamar from the last two seasons as a significant upgrade.

Context matters though. Lamar's first two seasons as a full time starter were exceptional. Then the next two weren't. That said, it's worth noting that in 2021 the Ravens suffered a staggering number of injuries. IIRC they lost all three RBs for the season they went into camp with before the end of September. They also dealt with a number of other injuries on both sides of the ball. Lamar didn't play great, but his rushing average per game was static between '20 and '21 and he had the most average passing yards per game that season. If you look at the averages over those four years they're pretty consistent outside of TDs and the spike in Ints in '21, but that appears to be a blip, not a trend. And last year early in the season he looked like a favorite for MVP and then something went off the rails. But even if you're focusing more on the stats than I am, the Ravens could have been 9-0 iirc to start the season if they didn't blow several two score fourth quarter leads. 

Imo Lamar has become an avatar. People see what they want in him. If you always believed in his upside then some of the issues don't deter you and if you always had doubts you've got evidence you can point to. Frankly I've seen enough to invest in him for the next few years because like I've said before, he's never had a supporting cast and I think if you give him one you're so much more likely to get '19 Lamar than the '21 version. And even if he's never that good again the '20 version is enough to win a title on a good team. 

Edited by Tywin et al.
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