NFL next- The Superb Owl you hate

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

12 minutes ago, DMC said:

Not for what Jackson is demanding in terms of guarantees.  That's another thing I think you fundamentally misunderstand for why the Ravens decided to give him the non-exclusive tag.  Jackson is MAYBE a top QB right now.  But whether he can sustain that? 

Contracts are agreed upon based on future expected performance, not necessarily what players have done in the past.  And the market, thus far, has determined Lamar Jackson is not worth as much as he thinks he is in future performance.  Maybe they're wrong!  Certainly wouldn't be the first time.  But, I agree with the market.

I don’t think Lamar will get what he wants, but I do believe based on their situation the Ravens should give him mostly want he wants. They are so dependent on him that losing him will likely be worse over the next five years than paying him. And again, do not let them off the hook for messing things up and not signing him after his third year like any sane team would do.

Also, I know it’s based on expectations for the future. That’s why Kyler and Wilson got their deals. I don’t think anyone would argue they’re better than Lamar right now nor are their futures brighter, they’re equally at risk of getting injured as him and by most accounts the Ravens offered him a worse contract than both of them got. People keep talking about the Watson deal and often lose sight that at one point they wanted to only pay him $133M guaranteed over five years which is insulting.

Quote

Lamar Jackson isn't worth that.  You can laugh at the Lance trade all you want, but it didn't risk that.  Frankly it didn't risk much because ShanaLynch's value is in finding really cheap contributors on Days 2 and 3 in the draft.  Signing Jackson would be an affront to that philosophy which has been demonstrably -- and exceedingly -- succesful.

I never laughed at the deal. I would have done it and taken Fields, but it’s not a terrible strategy overall. They’ve just had bad luck since doing it. That said, if Lance had worked out there’s a good chance they’d already be offering him a deal that would be larger than the one Jones got. They were going to have to pay him eventually so their long term planning would have to adjust to that reality. Bringing in Lamar would just speed up that timeline.  

[James Arryn]

Could be smoke, but apparently Niners medical people are very happy with Purdy’s surgery today. TJ was not required and the damage was less than feared. Supposedly expected to be throwing within 3 months. 

[briantw]

 

That feels like an insane amount to give up to roll the dice on one of this year's QBs.  I don't think any one of them is a sure thing.

[Quijote Light]

45 minutes ago, briantw said:

 

That feels like an insane amount to give up to roll the dice on one of this year's QBs.  I don't think any one of them is a sure thing.

Rumor after the combine was that they fell in love with Richardson, who’s probably one of the bigger gambles too. 

[dbunting]

I don't think it seems like too much. If you believe THE guy is there in this draft and you can get him, go for it. But you better be right or you screwed the franchise for years. The curious part is giving up Moore, who you think your new QB would like to have as a target.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, briantw said:

That feels like an insane amount to give up to roll the dice on one of this year's QBs.  I don't think any one of them is a sure thing.

Yeah, that was an overpay. It's not like they were moving up to get a prospect like Lawrence. And I agree, all four QBs have red flags. Young is too small. Richardson is a project who probably needs to sit for at least a year. And Levis is wildly inaccurate. Stroud is probably the safest pick of the four, but I don't see him having a really high ceiling and OSU QBs for whatever reason haven't translated well in the NFL. 

[briantw]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yeah, that was an overpay. It's not like they were moving up to get a prospect like Lawrence. And I agree, all four QBs have red flags. Young is too small. Richardson is a project who probably needs to sit for at least a year. And Levis is wildly inaccurate. Stroud is probably the safest pick of the four, but I don't see him having a really high ceiling and OSU QBs for whatever reason haven't translated well in the NFL. 

If I'm the Panthers, I'd rather overpay Lamar Jackson, keep DJ Moore, and burn two firsts rather than give up all that to get one of those four guys.  The Panthers with Lamar Jackson are the instant favorites in that trash division.  Wait until after the draft to sign him and they could have kept that ninth pick to add some high end talent to the team.

Edited March 11, 2023 by briantw

[Maithanet]

I don't think that's an overpay.  Moving from 9 to 1 costs a lot.  I saw multiple articles this week that the bears were looking to trade down twice, from 1 to 2 or 3, and then from there to like 7 or 9.  The Panthers had the offer enough to out bid that plan.

 

[briantw]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

I don't think that's an overpay.  Moving from 9 to 1 costs a lot.  I saw multiple articles this week that the bears were looking to trade down twice, from 1 to 2 or 3, and then from there to like 7 or 9.  The Panthers had the offer enough to out bid that plan.

 

I think it's a massive overpay relative to their talent level.  They can't afford to give up all those assets.  Their team is complete trash, and they just sent out one of their only good players.  They're going to waste the QB's entire rookie contract rebuilding, and by that time he may be broken beyond repair.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, briantw said:

If I'm the Panthers, I'd rather overpay Lamar Jackson, keep DJ Moore, and burn two firsts rather than give up all that to get one of those four guys.  The Panthers with Lamar Jackson are the instant favorites in that trash division.  Wait until after the draft to sign him and they could have kept that ninth pick to add some high end talent to the team.

I agree, but following up on your next post, I don't think it would be wise for them to get Jackson either. Teams that are a QB away should be fighting for him. So should teams that are missing a QB and need one more year of retooling to be competitive. The Panthers aren't that at all. They have one of the worst rosters in the league. If anything they should be in the market to trade back because they need as many top 100 picks as they can get over the next few years to rebuild from basically scratch. The smart move for them would be to build a good line on both sides first and get some nice DBs. Do that for two years or so and then go get your young QB and skill talent to place around him. Getting the QB first is dumb unless there's a generational talent available and this draft doesn't appear to have one (unlike next year's where there seems to be an obvious potential superstar).

[briantw]

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I agree, but following up on your next post, I don't think it would be wise for them to get Jackson either. Teams that are a QB away should be fighting for him. So should teams that are missing a QB and need one more year of retooling to be competitive. The Panthers aren't that at all. They have one of the worst rosters in the league. If anything they should be in the market to trade back because they need as many top 100 picks as they can get over the next few years to rebuild from basically scratch. The smart move for them would be to build a good line on both sides first and get some nice DBs. Do that for two years or so and then go get your young QB and skill talent to place around him. Getting the QB first is dumb unless there's a generational talent available and this draft doesn't appear to have one (unlike next year's where there seems to be an obvious potential superstar).

Yeah, I was just saying if they were going to go in on a QB, at least Lamar Jackson might make them competitive, especially since they'd be keeping Moore and the two second rounders they gave up in the deal.  And as mentioned, if they waited until after the draft, they could have used that number nine on a good player.

I agree that they're a team that should be trading back and stockpiling draft capital.  This reeks of an impatient, impulsive owner.  I'm all too familiar with those.

[Rhom]

It’s fascinating to me how quickly perceptions change.  Before last season, plenty of people had the Panthers as a playoff team.  Now they have one of the worst rosters in the league.

What was really interesting to me was the SportsCenter graphic of all the teams since 1990 to trade up for the overall first pick.  It was a roster full of suck.  Jeff George.  KiJana Carter.  Jared Goff.  The only decent name on the list was Russell Maryland.

[briantw]

8 minutes ago, Rhom said:

It’s fascinating to me how quickly perceptions change.  Before last season, plenty of people had the Panthers as a playoff team.  Now they have one of the worst rosters in the league.

Who had the Panthers as a playoff team a year ago?  Their roster was mediocre last offseason and it's gotten significantly worse with the absence of CMC and DJ Moore, their two best players offensively by a mile.  Their best WR right now is Terrace Marshall.

The only shot they had last year at making the postseason was the general weakness of the NFC and the fact that two of the teams in their division had even worse rosters and a lot of young, unproven skill players.

Edited March 11, 2023 by briantw

[Rhom]

2 minutes ago, briantw said:

Who had the Panthers as a playoff team a year ago?  Their roster was mediocre last offseason and it's gotten significantly worse with the absence of CMC and DJ Moore, their two best players offensively by a mile.  Their best WR right now is Terrace Marshall.

The only shot they had last year at making the postseason was the general weakness of the NFC and the fact that two of the teams in their division had even worse rosters and a lot of young, unproven skill players.

I’d have to go back and look at one of those “Gotcha!” websites that keeps track of predictions; but I remember multiple ESPN types who had them in there.

[dbunting]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

I’d have to go back and look at one of those “Gotcha!” websites that keeps track of predictions; but I remember multiple ESPN types who had them in there.

I remember the same thing. They had CMC, DJ Moore and the hope of Sam Darnold and playing in a weak division.  I don't think Vegas had them in the playoffs but some talking heads did.

[mcbigski]

From the Dolphins side, extending Tua is a far far safer move than going after Lamar.  Less money now and more picks later yes please.  Tua has had injury issues, but not much different than Lamar games missed wise.  

I think the Ravens did the right thing using the tag they did.  It's a depressed market because of the cost of two first rounders, so they kind of put Lamar on the spot, and are probably going to resign him for appreciably less than he asked for. 

I do think the commentary that Miami or SF is going to sign Lamar was kind of hilarious because it was entirely groundless.  Both teams have QBs on rookie contracts.  Torching your next couple of drafts to pay more for QB is a loser, unless your QB is Zach Wilson, MILF hunter.

[DireWolfSpirit]

The fact that Lamar insists on being his own agent should tell you he's already taken a few too many blitz hits.

" Lamar Jackson does not have an agent representing him during ongoing contract negotiations with the Baltimore Ravens. Instead, Jackson is leading negotiations for his second NFL contract on his own. He's also receiving some help from his mother, Felicia Jones, who is working as his manager."

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

The fact that Lamar insists on being his own agent should tell you he's already taken a few too many blitz hits.

" Lamar Jackson does not have an agent representing him during ongoing contract negotiations with the Baltimore Ravens. Instead, Jackson is leading negotiations for his second NFL contract on his own. He's also receiving some help from his mother, Felicia Jones, who is working as his manager."

 

He has a larger management team around him from my understanding and I'm sure he's paying lawyers hourly fees rather than having a full time agent. Not sure it's the greatest idea going forward, but the narrative that it's just him and his mom negotiating this isn't true from what I've read.

Plus as many others have said, there's not much negotiating to do if he keeps pointing at a number and says that's what he wants. 

[Slurktan]

11 hours ago, mcbigski said:

From the Dolphins side, extending Tua is a far far safer move than going after Lamar.  Less money now and more picks later yes please.  Tua has had injury issues, but not much different than Lamar games missed wise.  

That's ridiculous. If he gets another concussion (which would be what 4-5 in one year?) the dude should be forced to retire for his own safety. Lamar gets hurt but not head injuries,

[briantw]

While I agree that Lamar representing himself is likely annoying when it comes to negotiations, he’s by no means the only player who has ever represented himself, nor the only high profile or highly paid player.  

DeAndre Hopkins represented himself during his contract extension with the Cardinals.  Jacoby Brissett represents himself.  Richard Sherman, Russell Okung, Laremy Tunsil, Bobby Wagner…not a lot of players do it, but certainly enough that Lamar doing it isn’t the issue here.