NFL next- The Superb Owl you hate

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, dbunting said:

So for the Ravens it's a good thing he doesn't have a no trade clause.

He doesn't have a contract with them either and they can't force him to sign the tag. Lamar should not play until he has a real deal. It's completely insane the Ravens are doing this to their best player and we can already see how it's rubbing off on his teammates. 

[dbunting]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

He doesn't have a contract with them either and they can't force him to sign the tag. Lamar should not play until he has a real deal. It's completely insane the Ravens are doing this to their best player and we can already see how it's rubbing off on his teammates. 

Is it completely insane if they have real doubts about him and committing 250 mill? This is a team that took him and changed their entire team around him, if they have doubts then it should be taken seriously.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

12 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Is it completely insane if they have real doubts about him and committing 250 mill? This is a team that took him and changed their entire team around him, if they have doubts then it should be taken seriously.

The $250M number also came with reportedly only a little over half of it being guarantied. Look, Lamar is at worst probably like the 8th best QB in football and may very well be the most valuable one relative to his team given that offense is void of talent around him. He's easily the best QB in franchise history and they're unlikely to replace him with someone better for a long time. There may be some sticker shock over what the contract will cost, but if the Ravens don't pay it, they won't be competitive again for possibly years and they'll send a terrible message to players across the league. 

It's also financially prudent to get the deal done now if they want to keep him or trade him now to maximize his value. As far as I can tell the Ravens have not handled this process well at all.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Jets brass is flying out to meet Rodgers. I think it's fair to assume the Jets and Packers have worked out a trade package and now the Jets need to get Rodgers to agree to change his contract.

And just breaking, Ravens expected to give Lamar the non-exclusive tag which seems fucking insane. His time in Baltimore is likely over.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[briantw]

 

Seems like a terrible move by the Ravens.  They could have gotten way more than two firsts for him if they were going to let him go anyway.  And if they end up matching the deal, then they created all this bad blood with Jackson for nothing.

Edited March 7, 2023 by briantw

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I'd be shocked if they matched. Atlanta can offer him exactly what he wants that's too much for the Ravens and there are probably several other teams that would do it too.

[briantw]

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Atlanta can offer him exactly what he wants...

Or maybe not.

 

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by briantw

[Maithanet]

I don't really know what the Ravens are thinking.  Hard to imagine the team moving on from Jackson.  They don't have any other quarterback options and they don't have a high draft pick to get one.  The only starting quarterback that they could possibly sign would be Jimmy G, a quarterback who is also injury prone, but also comes with the bonus of being older and clearly less talented than Jackson. 

If Jackson leaves, this season is probably a complete waste.  They were buyers on the trade market as recently as 4 months ago, but they'd have to start cutting bait on the older guys because there's no quarterback to win with.  So basically the Ravens need to decide whether to resign Jackson or begin a complete rebuild.  Jackson's health is a concern for sure, but his talent is undeniable.  Even if it's only a 50/50 proposition that he's healthy come playoff time, that still seems vastly preferable to entering the abyss of searching for the next ??? years to find another top 8 quarterback.

[Maithanet]

Giants paying Jones $160 million over 4 years.  That's a lot of money for a guy who has had two OK years and two terrible years.  Best case scenario he's a slightly faster Kirk Cousins?

[dbunting]

I think there will be less of a market than he thinks there will be. How many teams can take on a contract that we hear he wants?

He has 33 passing td's the past two seasons combined in a historically ridiculously pass happy league. He missed 5 games last season and 4 games the season before that. Do we really think it's going to get better? 

Best I think I would do is like 150 fully guaranteed (since that seems to be the sticking point) for 3 years. At least that keeps the cap damage to three years if the team fears are correct and gets him another contract quickly if he proves them wrong. 

If someone like Carolina offers him a Watson type deal, adios. Give us two 1st round picks including #9 this year and we move on. Package Baltimore and Carolina pick to move up and get a QB this year and start over. 

[dbunting]

4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Giants paying Jones $160 million over 4 years.  That's a lot of money for a guy who has had two OK years and two terrible years.  Best case scenario he's a slightly faster Kirk Cousins?

If that. He is faster, runs a lot, but Cousins has much better passing stats. Suddenly Dak at 40 mill a year seems fair. Basically the same contract for the two of them.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, briantw said:

Or maybe not.

 

 

That was fast, lol.

The more I game this out the weirder this decision feels. The only path I can think of that makes sense for the Ravens is if Lamar is unable to find a deal he wants and is forced back to the negotiating table. But even that has pitfalls. No organizational psychologist would recommend insulting your most valuable employee to drive down their labor cost. The cost savings to make it worth it likely don’t exist. But even if you think this is a good idea, Lamar doesn’t have to sign the tag until week 10 and if he waits their season is nuked and Lamar is then one season away from being a true FA. This is seems like a terrible gamble for minimal upside meanwhile every player in the league is watching how they’re treating the face of their franchise. This is bad business.

[dbunting]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

This is seems like a terrible gamble for minimal upside meanwhile every player in the league is watching how they’re treating the face of their franchise. This is bad business.

Is it? If the market says he isn't worth what he is asking for then isn't this actually sound business practice? To me this makes sense (admittedly I am an idiot sometimes), let the market tell you the worth. Let him negotiate and see what is out there and match it if you feel it's fair. 

It would be totally different if they were not far apart but it sounds like they are miles apart.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

20 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Is it? If the market says he isn't worth what he is asking for then isn't this actually sound business practice? To me this makes sense (admittedly I am an idiot sometimes), let the market tell you the worth. Let him negotiate and see what is out there and match it if you feel it's fair. 

It would be totally different if they were not far apart but it sounds like they are miles apart.  

It’s only smart business if the cost savings are substantial and you don’t mind alienating your most valued employee. And again, Lamar doesn’t have to sign the tag until week 10. If he does that the team will be really bad this year and they won’t even be able to plan around it and build for the future. Then what? Lamar can do the exact same thing again next year and will then be a FA in 2025, so worst case scenario is he wrecks two seasons, the team can’t properly prepare (also they have to leave the necessary cap space open so he can sign) and then they lose him for nothing. They should have either signed him long term after his third season when the value would have been best or just traded him this past offseason. It’s very difficult to see how they’re going to get the best end result by doing this unless there really is no market for Lamar which I find hard to believe. He’s not going to get the deal Watson got, but the numbers I heard the Ravens were offering was $250M over five years, but only $133M was guaranteed. If that’s accurate it’s really insulting. That’s $30M less than what Kyler got and Lamar is significantly better and more accomplished than he is while working with less and Kyler’s long term injury concerns are every bit as real as Lamar’s.

[Rhom]

Are there any concerns that the league owners are colluding to prevent a new precedent of massive guaranteed deals?

[briantw]

6 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Are there any concerns that the league owners are colluding to prevent a new precedent of massive guaranteed deals?

That was my first thought as well when a couple different teams were so quick to put out the message that they weren't pursuing him at all.  That just seems insane to me.  You won't even take a meeting with him, Atlanta?  

[Rhom]

5 minutes ago, briantw said:

That was my first thought as well when a couple different teams were so quick to put out the message that they weren't pursuing him at all.  That just seems insane to me.  You won't even take a meeting with him, Atlanta?  

Its a difficult thing to gauge.  Kinda like Kaepernick in some ways.  You don't necessarily need to "collude" for 32 billionaires to all think essentially alike.

Heck, for the most part, all of us in this thread agree that giving Lamar a giant guaranteed deal is not a smart thing to do.

 

[briantw]

4 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Its a difficult thing to gauge.  Kinda like Kaepernick in some ways.  You don't necessarily need to "collude" for 32 billionaires to all think essentially alike.

Heck, for the most part, all of us in this thread agree that giving Lamar a giant guaranteed deal is not a smart thing to do.

 

It's odd to me that they're coming out and saying that they won't be talking to him.  And it's crazy that teams without an answer at QB aren't even going to meet with him.  Maybe he wants more than you're ultimately willing to give him, but at least take the meeting.  If this all blows up in the Ravens' collective face, Lamar could be a free agent in two years and maybe your team left a good impression in the meeting and he's now got more reasonable demands.

[Maithanet]

2 hours ago, dbunting said:

If that. He is faster, runs a lot, but Cousins has much better passing stats. Suddenly Dak at 40 mill a year seems fair. Basically the same contract for the two of them.

That's why I said best case scenario, which is assuming he improves a bit from his passing stats this past year.  

The worst case scenario is he's bad this year and isn't even a starter in 2024.  

[dbunting]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

It’s only smart business if the cost savings are substantial and you don’t mind alienating your most valued employee. And again, Lamar doesn’t have to sign the tag until week 10. If he does that the team will be really bad this year and they won’t even be able to plan around it and build for the future. Then what? Lamar can do the exact same thing again next year and will then be a FA in 2025, so worst case scenario is he wrecks two seasons, the team can’t properly prepare (also they have to leave the necessary cap space open so he can sign) and then they lose him for nothing. They should have either signed him long term after his third season when the value would have been best or just traded him this past offseason. It’s very difficult to see how they’re going to get the best end result by doing this unless there really is no market for Lamar which I find hard to believe. He’s not going to get the deal Watson got, but the numbers I heard the Ravens were offering was $250M over five years, but only $133M was guaranteed. If that’s accurate it’s really insulting. That’s $30M less than what Kyler got and Lamar is significantly better and more accomplished than he is while working with less and Kyler’s long term injury concerns are every bit as real as Lamar’s.

His leg injuries have to be concerning since he isn't known for his passing skills, remember that because he is a QB. He wants a salary that could cripple the organization for years if he can't live up to his performance from three years ago because his performance since then does not warrant it.

People have to stop living in 2019 and look at his last three years. 

Avg pass yds last three years, 2627. Avg Pass tds 19.6.  Avg Rush yards 845. Avg Rush tds 4, I had to go back and check that several times!

For the last three years he gives them 3472 yards and 23.6 tds per year. Is that worth the contract we hear he is asking for?

Kylers contract is already not aging well so to compare them isn't the best look. How many on here think Kyler is worth that? BTW, Kyler avg more yards, 3929, and tds 27.6 in the last three years as well. So Lamar is not only not significantly better, he is statistically speaking worse.