Bendric Dayne Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Given that like 3 months ago GRRM said he was missing like 400-500 pages I thought it would be fun for people to try to guess when it will come out so that when/if it does come out we can be like “hey I was close” or “I nailed it” or “I was nowhere near”. There’s obviously no way to give any sort of accurate prediction but I thought it would be fun either way to just throw a date out there and see what happens, like the lottery. I’m gonna give 4 dates based on the level of optimism/pessimism I have and I’ll explain why I think those dates can make some sort of sense. Really optimistic prediction- November 30th So if I’m being really optimistic TWOW can come out this November. Three months ago GRRM had 400-500 pages left and if I’m being really optimistic those left are some of the easier plot lines. I think he was having trouble with a few of the more complicated characters and I’m hoping he’s done with them and has been writing for these past three months and will continue until he finishes. Hopefully he has written 100-200 pages in these last three months and continues at a similar rate. Again I’m hoping that what he’s missing is like a couple of Victorion chapters here, a few Brienne chapters there, maybe finishing up Sansa as well, nothing too complicated like Dany and Jon. Also if you look up the release date for TWOW online there’s a bogus date for November of this year, which if I’m being really optimistic, someone actually leaked that date and it isn’t so bogus at all. Optimistic prediction- February 2024 If I’m gonna be optimistic I think he can finish writing by November of this year and we’ll see the book in February of next year. This can be the case if those 400-500 pages he had left three months ago were actually for some of those more complicated characters. Like maybe he has everything else written but he’s missing Dany, and Bran, and Jon(if he even gets any) or any of those characters giving him trouble. So it would take him more time to write those pages but he could still finish by November. Either that or he IS done with those characters, but is so exhausted that he’s taken a break and hasn’t written anything for the last few months. Either way I can see next February as a possible release date. Just for fun I’m gonna say February 17th to have an actual date. Pessimistic prediction- Late 2024 It’s very possible that the 400-500 pages he’s missing are for some of those more complicated characters and that he has taken a break for the last few months. My optimistic predictions were based mostly on him getting on a roll recently so now he maybe sees the finish line and is motivated to keep writing (particularly if what he’s missing he views as less complicated as what he has written). If he’s done with all the simpler characters and is only missing the more difficult characters and chapters to write, then it’s possible that he’ll push off writing those chapters for a while and that when he gets to it it will take him some time, but once he gets to it he won’t stop until he’s done. So if that’s the case it can come out late next year. I’m gonna say October 21 to give a specific date. Very pessimistic prediction- 2025 or later I know the easier answer is to just say it will never come out but then I can’t put a date which is the whole point of this. I see it coming out in 2025 or later simply because GRRM is capable of having most of the book done and still take a lot of time to finish. Like I can see him getting like 400 pages done between now and the end of 2024 and then having 100 pages to go that he just procrastinates on for no reason. Hopefully that’s not the case and like I said earlier he sees the finish line with this book now and feels motivated to get it done. But just to give a date I’ll say July 25th 2025. Which of these do you guys think is more likely? What are your own predictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curled Finger Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Fun? You think this is fun? Let's see now...I believe I began reading the series in 2013. I joined the forum in '14 or maybe '15. Watched the show starting in season 5. Somewhere around '16 or '17 I was certain Winds was coming and swore I was done with the entire franchise in '19. Yes, I get a little excited when Notablog gives an update and I no longer look for any clue anywhere else. I have accepted GRRM will do as he pleases and can. If Winds ever publishes I will be delighted if I am still alive, if not I hope the forum will hold a seance and read it to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kissdbyfire Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, Curled Finger said: If Winds ever publishes I will be delighted if I am still alive, if not I hope the forum will hold a seance and read it to me. Damn, CF! This made me laugh so hard my juice went everywhere straight from my nose! I thought Feast would come out in 2003. When Dance came out I made an optimistic prediction that Winds would come out in 2013. I’m done w/ predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curled Finger Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said: Damn, CF! This made me laugh so hard my juice went everywhere straight from my nose! I thought Feast would come out in 2003. When Dance came out I made an optimistic prediction that Winds would come out in 2013. I’m done w/ predictions. I think this is a huge contributor to why we all LOVE this damned story. We get to throw stones at Melisandre for being such a bad predictor. It makes us all just feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aejohn the Conqueroo Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, Curled Finger said: If Winds ever publishes I will be delighted if I am still alive, if not I hope the forum will hold a seance and read it to me. I'll read a chapter for you. Hell, I'll read all the Victarions if the other members will let me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 25 minutes ago, Curled Finger said: If Winds ever publishes I will be delighted if I am still alive, if not I hope the forum will hold a seance and read it to me. A seance for you? Ok, but I wouldn’t worry about it too much. Amazon will realize the market for WOW among the dearly departed and figure out how to make it available for the more ethereal readers. Not like Amazon to miss making a penny or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 I predict it will come out some time after I've finished my degree. So at least ~3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 2:44 pm EST, Sunday October 19, 2025. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Stonehearts Simp Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 I’ve accepted that the heat death of the universe will come first. His writing style creates great stories but him needing to “garden” really fucks up if he has to change things, say because an abomination ruined plot points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Arthurs Dawn Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, James Arryn said: 2:44 pm EST, Sunday October 19, 2025. OG Greenseer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curled Finger Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said: I’ve accepted that the heat death of the universe will come first. His writing style creates great stories but him needing to “garden” really fucks up if he has to change things, say because an abomination ruined plot points. No worries. All this stupid G5 network upgrading won't allow us to get it even if it does come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Arthurs Dawn Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 I've been strangely optimistic lately, so I'm gonna say mid 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Ok guys. I will not drink any tea or Pepsi Max for 2 days, which should put me into a sort of trance like state due to caffeine withdrawal. Then I can make a proper prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takiedevushkikakzvezdy Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, James Arryn said: 2:44 pm EST, Sunday October 19, 2025. Do you know something that the rest of us don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said: Ok guys. I will not drink any tea or Pepsi Max for 2 days, which should put me into a sort of trance like state due to caffeine withdrawal. Then I can make a proper prediction. Your sacrifice for the greater good of the fandom is humbling indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morte Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said: I predict it will come out some time after I've finished my degree. So at least ~3 years. This would be funny, if I did not think the same back in ... 2010, or so... Then I thought he will surely finish at least Winds before the show catches up with him... Well, I'm done with predictions. But I would not mind being pleasantly surprised in 2024 or 2025 or ... whenever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takiedevushkikakzvezdy Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Morte said: This would be funny, if I did not think the same back in ... 2010, or so. He couldn't have finished Winds before Dance, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aejohn the Conqueroo Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 I've been feeling the optimism, so just like the beginning of each of the last 7 years I'm thinking 'this is the year we get Winds'. Christmas release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 18 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said: Do you know something that the rest of us don't? No, in fact I know less. Just realized that there’s a decent chance the Giants are either playing or about to play at the time I picked it, meaning any release would have to be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bendric Dayne Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Curled Finger said: Fun? You think this is fun? Hahaha yes! Come on! Give us a date! Any random date! Where’s the harm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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