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Why are your Winds of Winter release date predictions?


Bendric Dayne

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21 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

He couldn't have finished Winds before Dance, though.

No. But, being a burned child, I normally don't start a media series until it's finished. So I did justify me starting ASoIaF with GRRM surely getting to the end soon... Little did I know back then... I should have looked his writing speed up beforehand, yes.

:dunno:

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2 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

It was fun for the first few years, but now, more than a decade later, it's just torture.

Does anyone else remember the…dunno if rumour or theory is more appropriate…after the last book that his comments that he had already written a bunch of later chapters, that therefore the delay between Dance and Winds would be relatively short? Also the absence of a Mereneese knot would mean smooth sailing.
 

Or, OMG, the advance chapters he was reading OUT LOUD surely had to mean imminent publication? I think the first of those was like 9 years ago. I now use the shadow of southbound geese to prognosticate Winds release dates. So far they haven’t been any less accurate than any other method. 

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5 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

It was fun for the first few years, but now, more than a decade later, it's just torture.

Yeah I understand how it can feel like that especially for some of the fans who have been part of this fandom for a long time now, but I guess the point of this wasn’t for people to actually try and predict the date. It’s more like for people to just throw a random date out there and see what happens. Like don’t even think if the date makes sense cuz at this point any random guess is as good as any prediction can be. Like throw out your grandma’s birthday and a random year! It’s as good as any prediction with any reasoning behind it! 

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14 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Does anyone else remember the…dunno if rumour or theory is more appropriate…after the last book that his comments that he had already written a bunch of later chapters, that therefore the delay between Dance and Winds would be relatively short? Also the absence of a Mereneese knot would mean smooth sailing.

Yes, the leftover chapters from Dance were moved to Winds, so GRRM said on his blog in 2010 (!) that he practically has "written 200 pages for Winds already". 

Also, for the first few years there really seemed to be smooth sailing with Winds, as GRRM openly said that there hadn't been nearly as many rewrites as with Dance, but something happened around 2015 or so.

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1 minute ago, James Arryn said:

Does anyone else remember the…dunno if rumour or theory is more appropriate…after the last book that his comments that he had already written a bunch of later chapters, that therefore the delay between Dance and Winds would be relatively short? Also the absence of a Mereneese knot would mean smooth sailing.

Yes. And threads on predictions, b/c it could really come quickly! And after the wait for Dance we so wanted to believe! My optimistic prediction for a 2013 release was in one of those threads. And here we are, 10 years after my “spot on” 2013 prediction, still making predictions. :lol:

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3 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Yes, the leftover chapter from Dance were moved to Winds, so GRRM said on his blog in 2010 (!) that he practically has "written 200 pages for Winds already". 
 

I won’t do the maths here in relation to his comments about having 400-500 pages to go. 

3 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Also, for the first few years there really seemed to be smooth sailing with Winds, as GRRM openly said that there hadn't been nearly as many rewrites as with Dance, but something happened around 2015 or so.

Around the time the abomination overtook the books, perhaps? 

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9 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

 

Around the time the abomination overtook the books, perhaps? 

Yes, that is by my way of thinking, the greatest blow to Winds. A few months back I watched some vids of George years earlier talking about the possibility of the show passing the books as a kind of doomsday scenario…compared it to being run over by a charging train…and it hit me how much wind, heh, that took out of his sails. Must have. 

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if I'm being optimistic, it'll be November/December 2023. 

when I first read the series, I was so sure that Winds would eventually be published in 2022-2023 ... I once even thought 2024 at the very most... and I had ACTUALLY put some thought into it! I thought that Winds can't take much more time than Dane and Feast combined... it's so embarrassing thinking of it now...

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5 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But for that to happen, it needs to be delivered around summer. And GRRM doesn't seem that optimistic in his blog posts, at least from what I can tell. 

Not IN ANY WAY saying this is part of any argument for an earlier date, but if/when he completes Winds I could see him being unusually cosa nostra about it for as long as possible. 
 

Otoh I can also see him notblogging a pic with a prominent middle finger to announce it. 

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11 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But for that to happen, it needs to be delivered around summer. And GRRM doesn't seem that optimistic in his blog posts, at least from what I can tell. 

Yep! I agree with you. I just feel like I should be optimistic.

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The only time I was able to read more than one book in ASoIaF in immediate succession was in 1998.  Yes, I read AGoT and ACoK right when latter was published.  I was certainly a much younger man then!  Collectively, I have been waiting for these books for what seems a very long time. 

I have never really been much for making predictions for when the books will be published.  But I remain optimistic that GRRM very much wants to finish the series and that he will.  So, when these books become available, they will be just a little more icing on the cake of my life:)   

ETA: It occurs to me that I came into a thread asking for predictions...and didn't post one, which seems kind of rude, in hindsight.  So...I'll go ahead and say November, 2024!:D

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Just now, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

For what it's worth, he announced the release date for ADWD several months in advance.

Yeah, I’m saying that I think his relationship with the public has changed a bit since then and I can imagine a scenario where he decides to keep it hushed up for as long as possible. I could see him, for example, hearing/reading the questions that he finally has answers for, and deciding to just enjoy it for a while. And also being a bit gun shy about saying anything until every wrinkle is ironed out. Not a prediction, just a possibility. 

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18 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

if I'm being optimistic, it'll be November/December 2023. 

I agree this is definitely an optimistic prediction but I think it’s a possibility. Best case scenario, he has been writing since his last update and will continue to write until he’s finished which I think can make this date realistic. Of course it is by no means a given that he’s been writing all this time and that he won’t take any breaks until he’s done, but I think he could get on a roll and write those missing pages in time for it to come out in this time frame. It’s not the most likely scenario but it is a possibility. So I guess my point is that whenever he finishes it, it’ll be because he gets on a roll and it is possible that he’s been on a roll since before his last update until now and hopefully until he finishes. I think he either gets inspired and writes or doesn’t write at all. So hopefully he’s been inspired for a while and will continue to be until he finishes which if that’s the case, it could come out at the end of this year. 

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