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Why are your Winds of Winter release date predictions?


Bendric Dayne

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So after reconsidering my life choices I am altering the choice of what I am prepared to sacrifice for a speedy release of The Winds of Winter. I am now offering ONE appendix, one third of a liver, half a pint of blood and one baby tooth. For the addition of A Dream of Spring I will throw in one spleen and one Islet of Langerhans. This is an improvement on my previous offer of one appendix. GRRM take note.

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2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

So after considering my life choices I am altering the choice of what I am prepared to sacrifice for a speedy release of The Winds of Winter. I am now offering ONE appendix, one third of a liver, half a pint of blood and one baby tooth. For the addition of A Dream of Spring I will throw in one spleen and one Islet of Langerhans. This is an improvement on my previous offer of one appendix. GRRM take note.

How many do you have? 

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Just now, kissdbyfire said:

There’s always some length of gut as well… fingers? Toes? Tonsils? Teeth? Ear is not super necessary… trying to help you, @Craving Peaches, for when you need to up your offerings. /cdn-cgi/mirage/e41223c6d441d90bc8a23269852dd6fbd9afa8514e18e940bb8c023c85b5f0b5/1280/https://asoiaf.westeros.org/uploads/emoticons/default_lol.gif

I have more baby teeth... and yes, tonsils may be available in the future. I am not afraid to add in cerebrospinal fluid either. A few fingernails if I can take the pain...

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39 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

That's great. I wish that I could be as optimistic about it as you. :unsure:

Since you wish it, I wish it for you, too!  I mean, if we never get the rest of this wonderful story, I'd be very disappointed, of course.  But my life would go on and I'd simply move on to some other wonderful thing.;)   

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3 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

My optimistic prediction for a 2013 release was in one of those threads. And here we are, 10 years after my “spot on” 2013 prediction, still making predictions.

I remember being on the Christmas train!  Choo Choo!  We were gonna get the book for Christmas!   Alas, that train crashed and burned.    :crying:

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In my view all your pessimistic predictions are optimistic, and all your optimistic predictions are delusional.  But I hope you are right nonetheless.

My optimistic prediction will be that he completes and publishes WINDS at some point before he turns 80.  My pessimistic prediction will be that it will be published it after that date.  Neutrality falls in the middle, so I hereby predict publication on September 20, 2028.

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2 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Yeah, I’m saying that I think his relationship with the public has changed a bit since then and I can imagine a scenario where he decides to keep it hushed up for as long as possible. I could see him, for example, hearing/reading the questions that he finally has answers for, and deciding to just enjoy it for a while. And also being a bit gun shy about saying anything until every wrinkle is ironed out. Not a prediction, just a possibility. 

Could see that as well.  As soon as a pub date for Winds is announced, there will be people all up in his grill whining about Dream.  When will Dream be finished?  When?  When?  When?  Keerist, it will never end.

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GRRM gave his 75% done and 500 pages left to go chat in December.

 

Which is good news as writing the ending (the climaxes and denouements) seems like it's going to be a quicker and easier process. The absolute earliest I can see it coming out is Black Friday 2023. But that means that GRRM needs to have the book completed and sent off for editing and publishing by the end of July.

It can be done but he has to really put in work.

But it is just as likely to come out this time next year: January-February 2024.

 

A Dream of Spring will take a minute for him to write though. I think he could finish Dream in about half of the time it took him to finish Winds (~6 years) but Fire & Blood vol. 2 and 3 still need to be written (if vol. 3 is ever going to be a thing, it probably will come out after A Dream of Spring because of how spoilery it would be) and he has at least one more Dunk & Egg book left.

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25 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

GRRM gave his 75% done and 500 pages left to go chat in December.

 

Which is good news as writing the ending (the climaxes and denouements) seems like it's going to be a quicker and easier process. The absolute earliest I can see it coming out is Black Friday 2023. But that means that GRRM needs to have the book completed and sent off for editing and publishing by the end of July.

It can be done but he has to really put in work.

But it is just as likely to come out this time next year: January-February 2024.

 

A Dream of Spring will take a minute for him to write though. I think he could finish Dream in about half of the time it took him to finish Winds (~6 years) but Fire & Blood vol. 2 and 3 still need to be written (if vol. 3 is ever going to be a thing, it probably will come out after A Dream of Spring because of how spoilery it would be) and he has at least one more Dunk & Egg book left.

I agree! For a Black Friday release he’d have to average 5 pages per day to be finished midsummer. It’s very possible that he’s inspired right now and is doing just that. I know some people might think it’s impossible for him to average 5 pages considering his average up to now has been like less than a page per day, but he hasn’t even been writing for most of the time since Dance came out. I think he’s only written when he’s been inspired. So we know that he was inspired before he gave us that update so it’s possible that he’s still inspired and still writing. That’s why my optimistic predictions were between November-February. As long as he’s writing an average of between 3-5 pages per day that’s a realistic time frame. However, if he’s met another roadblock, and isn’t writing at all, who knows how much longer it will take. But I’m optimistic that he’s over the hump and that these last pages will be easier for him. We’ll see what happens! 

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