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Why are your Winds of Winter release date predictions?


Bendric Dayne

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4 hours ago, EggBlue said:

Me too. but let's not give him ideas just yet. Otherwise, he'll start a back story book after winds and tour it for three years!

He did go on a long book tour after finishing Dance, which he later said he regretted because he lost all writing momentum going into Winds.

As far as I understand, book tours aren't as important now as they were 10-15 years ago, so hopefully he won't go on a big one after Winds is finished. 

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12 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Back in 2012 he talked about writing a sequel to Fevre Dream once he finishes ASOIAF. :bawl:

You rang?  I am the Lady of the Good Ship Fevre Dream.  No, no, no.  We'll go no more a roving so late into the night.

And, having done this TWOW prediction game on and off since 2012? is it? maybe I should........go a roving, because a prediction I will not be making.

I am sorta, at times, almost ready to give a somewhat, but not too distant date but I think I should just go back to my realistic belief:  If we get it, ever, great.  And, no, not counting on it or Dream.  I'd take whatever GRRM has now, but that's not happening either so maybe I should go a roving late into the night.......while I think I can do so still walking a bit in beauty through that night.  

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I wonder if he is wishing he hadn't invented some of these characters. Having to start moving them to climax and denoument.

My secret fear is that only the characters/plot lines I find boring will be included, for the ones I like, you have to wait for ADOS. They will be on hold while we get ten Arianne chapters or something similar.

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On 2/1/2023 at 7:50 PM, James Arryn said:

Does anyone else remember the…dunno if rumour or theory is more appropriate…after the last book that his comments that he had already written a bunch of later chapters, that therefore the delay between Dance and Winds would be relatively short? Also the absence of a Mereneese knot would mean smooth sailing.
 

Or, OMG, the advance chapters he was reading OUT LOUD surely had to mean imminent publication? I think the first of those was like 9 years ago. I now use the shadow of southbound geese to prognosticate Winds release dates. So far they haven’t been any less accurate than any other method. 

Most definitely.  And there was an implication (or maybe I made an inference) that the battles of Meereen and Winterfell / Stannis v Boltons had already been largely written and were simply moved into Winds.

I thought the publication of sample chapters was something in his contract to show the publishers he had reached a certain page count or milestones for advances.  Maybe I shouldn't say that :uhoh:

On 2/2/2023 at 12:45 AM, BlackLightning said:

GRRM gave his 75% done and 500 pages left to go chat in December.

AGOT is 800 pages long.  Either TWOW is going to be 1600 - 2000 pages or he's about half way, maybe not even that.  He could write faster if he was motivated to but that's the real issue and has been for some years.  Only he can rediscover his desire to write this story.  I sure hope he does :)

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1 hour ago, the trees have eyes said:

I thought the publication of sample chapters was something in his contract to show the publishers he had reached a certain page count or milestones for advances. 

Apparently, he has to send a certain number of pages in for editing every now and then in order to receive a contractual payment. He did just that in February 2013. 

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1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Apparently, he has to send a certain number of pages in for editing every now and then in order to receive a contractual payment. He did just that in February 2013. 

I’ll be the berk and ask the obvious question: is there any kind of inside info into how long the increments are? 
 

edit: GAH! You see, sucked right back in!!!!!??!?? I need a support group. 

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