What reason(s) would Varys have to betray Rhaegar?

[Gilbert Green]

On 2/4/2023 at 9:17 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

According to Conleth Hill, George told him that Varys is “ultimately, a good person”. So it seems that his monologue at the end of Dance does spell out his motivation and is meant as much for the readers as it is for Kevan.

Varys cuts out the tongues of children.

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

I'm not saying that he wouldn't undermine Rhaegar.  But what positive evidence do we have that he did undermine Rhaegar?

We are told that Aegon summoned Varys when he became suspicious of Rhaegar.  But did Varys actually fan the flames of his paranoia when he arrived?

It was Varys that told Aerys of the Tourney at Harrenhal, and Aerys left the Red Keep and Kings Landing for the first time in years. It was at the Tourney that Rhaegar was likely planning on speaking to all the great families of Westeros. The noble families were clearly unhappy with Aerys and the Targaryens.

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said:

It was Varys that told Aerys of the Tourney at Harrenhal, and Aerys left the Red Keep and Kings Landing for the first time in years. It was at the Tourney that Rhaegar was likely planning on speaking to all the great families of Westeros. The noble families were clearly unhappy with Aerys and the Targaryens.

Fair enough.  In that case my guess/theory would be as follows:

In 275 or earlier, Doran marries Mellario.  Mellario is the daugher of Illyrio & Serra, and the Blackfyre heir.  They marry for love.  But the Blackfyres are constitutionally incapabable of NOT scheming for the throne.

In 276, Arianne is born.  Heir to Dorne, but also heir to the Blackfyres (via Mellario, via Serra).

Early 280 AC, Elia marries Rhaegar after a year long-betrothal.  This was done, I suppose, with the blessing of the Princess of Dorne.  It wasn't Doran's idea.  Doran and Mellario would rather scheme marriage alliances for the benefit of Arianne.

However, at around this time, the Princess of Dorne dies; and Doran is in charge, though too late to prevent Elia's marriage.  At this point, if not earlier, the scheme of the Blackfyre/Martell alliance is to influence Aerys II to disinherit Rhaegar and name Viserys his heir.  The next step will be for Viserys and Arianne to marry.   Through their descendants, a Blackfyre will finally sit the Iron Throne.

Also at around this time (or 278 at the earliest), Varys (a Blackfyre ally) comes to KL to serve as Aerys II's master of whisperers.

Late in 280 AC, Aegon is born, and so is Quentyn (yet another Blackfyre).  Cousins.  Both about the same age, and both of mixed Valyrian/Martell heritage.

281 AC, we have the Tourney of Harrenhall.  We have Varys whispering against Rhaegar, as you stated above.

282 AC Robert's Rebellion breaks out.  The Blackfyre/Martell alliance supports the Targaryens.

283 AC After the death of Rhaegar, Varys influences Aerys to name Viserys his heir, ahead of Aegon.  However, at the sack, he really does smuggle Baby Aegon to safety, and probably would have saved the Elia & Rhaenys if he could.  After all, Doran is his ally, and Doran does at least have some loyalty to his sister and nephew.  I suppose Doran takes custody of Baby Aegon, gives him a new identity (let's call him "Frog"), and lets him play in the Water Gardens.

284+  A marriage pact is made between Viserys and Arianne.  However, as time passes, it becomes increasingly clear that Viserys is mad as a hatter, and that no-one will support his claim.  Then Mellario throws a tantrum when Doran reveals he wants to send little Quentyn to be fostered with the Yronwoods to pay his "blood price", thereby insuring the loyalty of an important vassal.

What to do?  What to do?

The boys are only 3 and still malleable.  Frog becomes Quentyn, and years later, when fully trained in his new identity, is sent to the Yronwoods.  The real Quentyn becomes Young Griff and ends up in Norvos with Mellario/Lemore and Griff.  And the Blackfyre/Martell alliance has a new champion.

[EggBlue]

On 2/4/2023 at 3:24 AM, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said:

Let’s just say for the sake of the argument, that Rhaegar was indeed planning on overthrowing his father. And the Tourney at Harrenhal was where Rhaegar planned to discuss it with the great lords. Why would Varys interfere? Aerys is, by multiple diffferent accounts, insane by this point. If Varys was indeed “for the realm” by this point, Rhaegar was clearly the better option. Was he already planting the seems for fAegon?

I doubt Varys is "for the realm", Varys is "for Varys". I think to figure out Varys's motives in Harrenhal, we should take a look at his little speech about where power resides. seems to me Varys, in this scenario, is the guy with the sword, only his sword is his information and influence. Harrenhall was the scene of his power-play. we know Aerys was crazy enough to burn his own son if he had enough evidence of his betrayal. we also know that although King's presence didn't allow for a great council, it certainly convinced lords of his madness and more in favor of Rhaegar. one could say the king's presence in the tourney could both be good or bad for Rhaegar, depending on how Varys would play his cards. Varys sent Aerys to Harrenhall, seemingly messing up Rhaegar's plan but withholding enough info not to bring him down completely. maybe, he was sending out a warning to Rhaegar who at that point had absolutely no reason to keep some foreign weirdo at his court whenever he was to become king. maybe Varys was trying to show Rhaegar how he could be either his ally or enemy, while he probably wasn't even on Rhaegar's radar before.

[astarkchoice]

9 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Varys cuts out the tongues of children.

This is a solid point to reflect on 'good guy varys'

The impression given is he cares for the kids and they are probably drawn from essos  masses of starving orphans so one one hand hes mutilating them and placing them in constant danger on the other hand they are fed, clothed, warm and not  sittingnonnthe streets bored or being subjected to who knows what.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

15 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Varys cuts out the tongues of children.

Maybe it means that Varys believes in his mind that he is doing the right thing? I don't know, but I don't think George would have told Conleth this if there was no reason for it. 

[Craving Peaches]

21 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Maybe it means that Varys believes in his mind that he is doing the right thing?

Yes, this is what I think. Varys genuinely believes all he is doing is for the good of the realm (even though it isn't really).

[EggBlue]

16 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Varys cuts out the tongues of children.

32 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Yes, this is what I think. Varys genuinely believes all he is doing is for the good of the realm (even though it isn't really).

I don't think even Varys could see himself at the right if he systematically cuts out children's tongues. I mean, he was maimed himself. He should know how terrible it is. 

Then again, a while ago, I was confused about Varys's little birds and asked about the tongue situation in the "small questions" thread. Corvo and Megorova somewhat convinced me that the birds aren't mutes. You can read their arguments here:

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/153070-small-questions-v-10106/&do=findComment&comment=8762929

 

 

 

[Craving Peaches]

29 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

I don't think even Varys could see himself at the right if he systematically cuts out children's tongues. I mean, he was maimed himself. He should know how terrible it is. 

Yes but he might think it's all worth it to get F/Aegon on the throne. That F/Aegon would be able to establish a dynasty where every member was Jaehaerys the Concilliator because if F/Aegon's raised properly he can then raise his son properly and so on.

[EggBlue]

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Yes but he might think it's all worth it to get F/Aegon on the throne. That F/Aegon would be able to establish a dynasty where every member was Jaehaerys the Concilliator because if F/Aegon's raised properly he can then raise his son properly and so on.

what a delusional

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

35 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

what a delusional

I don’t think so. I actually expect fAegon to be a pretty good king, for the short time he is on the throne. I think it would be the perfect morally grey act for Daenerys. That he is a good king, and good person but she finds out he is a Blackfyre and kills him.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

2 minutes ago, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said:

I don’t think so. I actually expect fAegon to be a pretty good king, for the short time he is on the throne. I think it would be the perfect morally grey act for Daenerys. That he is a good king, and good person but she finds out he is a Blackfyre and kills him.

Many fans think he is a bit of a brat, though.

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

1 minute ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Many fans think he is a bit of a brat, though.

He is a child. A bit of brattiness comes with the territory.

[EggBlue]

3 minutes ago, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said:

I don’t think so. I actually expect fAegon to be a pretty good king, for the short time he is on the throne. I think it would be the perfect morally grey act for Daenerys. That he is a good king, and good person but she finds out he is a Blackfyre and kills him.

oh, I actually don't think that is a delusion. Aegon will be a good king or at least will try to be. but to think Varys spends 20+ years cutting children's tongues , exploiting them and telling himself it's for the greater good because some dudes he has appointed to raise Aegon will bring up the perfect king is definitely delusional. especially that mice/birds project predates Aegon's birth! 

[Gilbert Green]

6 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Maybe it means that Varys believes in his mind that he is doing the right thing? I don't know, but I don't think George would have told Conleth this if there was no reason for it. 

George has not told us we must regard Varys as a good person.  And even if he did, we could (and should) respond "But George, he cuts out the tongues of children."

I imagine GRRM was only telling Conleth how to play the role.  And, as George has pointed out in the past, most villains don't wake up in the morning thinking "I'm so evil, I wonder what evil things I can think to do today."

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

17 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

George has not told us we must regard Varys as a good person. 

George hasn't told us to consider any character to be a good or bad person. He said that each reader should have their own personal reaction to different characters, just like when they meet real people.

I can't find the exact quote, but he said something like "The fact that I got very diverse reactions to characters such as Sansa, Theon Greyjoy ,and The Hound indicates that I've done my job rather well". Or something to that effect.

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

George hasn't told us to consider any character to be a good or bad person. He said that each reader should have their own personal reaction to different characters, just like when they meet real people.

I can't find the exact quote, but he said something like "The fact that I got very diverse reactions to characters such as Sansa, Theon Greyjoy ,and The Hound indicates that I've done my job rather well". Or something to that effect.

Well of course, that does not contradict anything I said.

I suppose there's no need to debate to what extent a work of art can or should have a moral perspective.  GRRM once denied that ASOIAF was nihilistic.  Which to my mind implies that he intends ASOIAF to have a moral perspective.  But who knows?  Maybe that's just what a nihilist would say. 

[BlackLightning]

On 2/8/2023 at 3:47 PM, James West said:

I don't like Rhaegar.  

Why?

And why would your dislike of Rhaegar make you want to disinherit not only Rhaegar but both of his children?

[kissdbyfire]

On 2/8/2023 at 6:47 PM, James West said:

I don't like Rhaegar.  

Of course you don’t.
Should I take this statement as confirmation that you believe R+L=J or is it a preemptive dislike, just in case Rhaegar is Jon’s father? 

[Aebram]

Excuse me if this has already been mentioned; but it occurs to me that, when Varys encouraged Aerys to attend the tourney, he was actually trying to help Rhaegar's cause. He wanted all the lords to have a chance to see what a mess Aerys was.