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Mrs Halfman and the Clans of TVOA - Whatever happened to the mountain tribes?


Alester Florent

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Having been major fixtures in the first two books in the series, Shagga son of Dolf (the best-named character in ASoIaF) and co. departed remarkably quickly. When they first appeared, it seemed that this plot was going to go somewhere, with Tyrion contemplating - even if just to get the Vale mountain clans on side - an uprising against the powers that be in the Vale. And unless I'm forgetting something nothing has happened on this since, with the Vale clans getting scarcely a mention since they were kicked out of King's Landing after the Blackwater.

Now, the only person who has ever shown any real interest in the Vale clans is Tyrion, and they were loyal to him in a way that only really Bronn matches - and even then Bronn's loyalty was explicitly mercenary (even if there came to be a degree of personal loyalty too). So perhaps nothing is likely to happen with the Vale clans until Tyrion gets to the Vale again, which he might not ever. And in any case a clan uprising would probably not trouble any PoVs outside the Vale.

But we do have a Vale PoV, and as it happens, that character is Tyrion's wife. Sansa is perhaps the only person currently in Westeros in a position to deal with the Vale clans on the basis of an existing friendly relationship, perhaps being in a position to deploy them as her own personal muscle in a similar way to Tyrion in King's Landing. And what's more, as a Stark, she is perhaps additionally well-placed to treat with the clans as a fellow First Men-identifier and follower of the Old Gods. With the Vale clans behind her, she would be much less reliant on Littlefinger for protection, and it gives her independent bargaining chips when it comes to other Vale lords.

To get there requires a series of mental leaps: first she has to stop being Alayne and become Sansa Stark, then she has to identify herself as  Sansa Lannister, and finally realise that her husband is the Halfman, not just T. Lannister of Casterly Rock. It's hard to imagine her making these unless prompted. 

But maybe the scene is being set for just such a prompt, as she leaves the Eyrie (impregnable to the clans) and the lords of the Vale assemble for events which may be more vulnerable to clan attack. If put on the spot, might she have the sudden epiphany necessary to play the cards at her disposal? Or will her somewhat straitjacketed way of thinking stop her from ever coming at the problem laterally enough to realise what she might have at her disposal?

Even if nothing comes of the Sansa thing, what do we think is going to happen with the Vale clans? Are we going to see them again, or is that just an abandoned plot thread?

 

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Hehehehe Shagga Son of Dolf!  Close, but I go with Whoresbane every time one of the kids gleefully announces a pregnancy and muses over names.  It's clear the Vale clans will need to make their reappearance in Sansa's plot if they are to reappear at all.  I am reminded of something I think Martin himself said about having a big wolfpack just hanging around in the background here.  Our mountain clans did well for themselves with the Halfman.  They got more than they could carry home insofar  as weapons and wealth in general go.  There is a tourney with no doubt an anyone can play melee involved.  Wonder who will show up for that?  

Seems to me there is a lot of interest and near ever noble family plans to show up for the Tourney, for gifts if nothing else.  This Winged Knight position would be a sweet spot for a young man to land.  The Vale is bored having bowed out of all the political excitement and intrigue that has plagued Westeros for years now.  Seats of power are changing, alliances are shifting, merchants are marrying into noble houses.  Oh I bet everyone wants to get together and take a look at the seat of power in the Vale now and this is the perfect opportunity.  

I wouldn't be surprised to see several things go awry here, Mad Mouse try to take off with Sansa, some tall gimpy guy show up and try to take off with her, maybe a couple of blondes show up and make trouble, a great uncle could make an appearance, the possibilities are endless for chaos.  Any attempt to spirit Sansa away puts her directly in the path of capture by the clans who may not recognize her relationship to Tyrion but may as a hostage.  Anything can happen at that point.  The only problem I see with an exit this early is the grain hoarding Littlefinger is up to.  This device is so loud and obtuse I have to think this is the way Sansa gets out and gets even and makes her way with everyone.  I think anyway.  This food, grain, saving grace will be her ticket home.  This will build her army and loyalty.  I can't see being Tyrion's unfaithful wife serving her among his old war buddies.  

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On 2/7/2023 at 10:53 AM, Adelstein said:

But we do have a Vale PoV, and as it happens, that character is Tyrion's wife. Sansa is perhaps the only person currently in Westeros in a position to deal with the Vale clans on the basis of an existing friendly relationship, perhaps being in a position to deploy them as her own personal muscle in a similar way to Tyrion in King's Landing. And what's more, as a Stark, she is perhaps additionally well-placed to treat with the clans as a fellow First Men-identifier and follower of the Old Gods. With the Vale clans behind her, she would be much less reliant on Littlefinger for protection, and it gives her independent bargaining chips when it comes to other Vale lords.

Sansa's indirect connection to the Mountain Clans is an interesting one. 

Sansa may realize (though she hides her thoughts when playing her "Alayne" role), that LF means to murder Sweetrobin.   So she has schemed to surround her cousin with knights loyal only to him.  The tournament, which was her idea, was for this purpose.    LF agreed too readily to this idea, and no doubt has plans for making sure that the 8 winners are his own hand-picked men, including Lyn Corbray.  But someone might slip through.

Eventually, Sansa, Sweetrobin, a Knight, and his Squire will flee with Sweetrobin to save his life.  They may be forced to take refuge in the Mountains.  They may be able to use the Tyrion connection to convince Timmet not to kill them.

Sheepstealer is also hiding somewhere in that vast mountain wilderness.

Just a theory.

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Disclaimer: I think in detail; this post is really long, and there's a TLDR at the bottom.  Hear me out though.

Given the connection that at least some of the mountain tribes have with worshipping dragon riders, I expect that some, but more likely ALL, will fight for Dany.

It's heavily implied that Nettles fled to the mountains of the moon at the end of the Dance, and the "Burned Men" clan was an offshoot of the Painted Dogs who came to worship her....or at least had a protection arrangement with her.  There's a reason all the other clans are scared of the Burned Men, and it's probably because they had a dragon on their side for a while.

With the major clans united during their tenure working with Tyrion.....and the promises he made to them...if he becomes Dany's Hand and they get back to Westeros, I fully expect all of the clans to side with him, and by extension, Dany and her dragons. 

Tyrion was the best thing to happen to them in the last 100 years and Nettles/Sheepstealer was the best to happen to them in the last 300 years.  Some of them have a tradition that includes dragons, and all of them received promises from Tyrion, who always pays his debts.

Given the interconnectedness with Tyrion, Dany, the Clans, Dragons, and the Littlefinger's meddling in the Vale.....I suspect that Dany will foil Littlefinger's plans there and capture the Vale with a combination of ground troops (Dothraki and Unsullied) being led by expert mountain-clan scout....and dragons.  The Eyrie has been emptied out due to winter so all the soldiers are at the base of the mountains....the land the Clans know best.

This would fulfill the foreshadowing about the Eyrie being impregnable to anything but dragons, and also satisfy the centuries-long fued of the first-men Mountain Clans against the Andal invaders (the Arryns) while making tactical sense.  It's also just complex enough that Littlefinger won't see it coming. Bronze Yohn Royce would also make an amazing spy for Dany, given that he hates Littlefinger and the Royce family was THE First-Men opposition against the Arryns hundreds of years ago.  I think he will probably be pivotal, and his entire house will revert back to the fued between the first men and the Arryns that was detailed in Fire and Blood.

It would also be a massive strategic flex on Dany's part.  Winter has arrived and the Eyrie is inaccessible....except on dragonback.  Dragonstone is off-shore, and Dany is going to need a hub for her forces that is not an island.  The Fingers are very near the Vale, and would be an excellent place for her to land her invasion force, since it's mostly uninhabited.  Her dragons like goats, and Littlefinger says there's a whole lot of them where he grew up. From there she can capture the Vale and have a centrally located but easily defensible position that is essentially unassailable, giving her the option to fight north or south.  It's the perfect initial invasion point and if she has Tyrion and the clans, she's uniquely equipped to take it.  It would also make her the only person in the world who can access the Eyrie, because she has Drogon.

That's how I would do it if I were Dany, and I think that GRRM has foreshadowed that sequence of events sufficiently that I believe that's exactly what is going to happen.  If it doesn't, it would be a massive missed-opportunity.

The cherry on top would be if Sansa, installed as ruler of the vale by Littlefinger, were the one to surrender it to Dany, forming the basis of a relationship between the Starks and Targaryens, and laying the eventual trap for Littlefinger.

 

 

 

 

TLDR: The stage is set for Dany and Tyrion to use the clans to capture their initial invasion point on-continent, and there's a huge amount of foreshadowing for it being enabled by the clans.

Wow, that sure turned into a giant wall of text, didn't it?  I probably should have just made a thread.

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1 hour ago, Ring3r said:

Disclaimer: I think in detail; this post is really long, and there's a TLDR at the bottom.  Hear me out though.

Given the connection that at least some of the mountain tribes have with worshipping dragon riders, I expect that some, but more likely ALL, will fight for Dany.

It's heavily implied that Nettles fled to the mountains of the moon at the end of the Dance, and the "Burned Men" clan was an offshoot of the Painted Dogs who came to worship her....or at least had a protection arrangement with her.  There's a reason all the other clans are scared of the Burned Men, and it's probably because they had a dragon on their side for a while.

With the major clans united during their tenure working with Tyrion.....and the promises he made to them...if he becomes Dany's Hand and they get back to Westeros, I fully expect all of the clans to side with him, and by extension, Dany and her dragons. 

Tyrion was the best thing to happen to them in the last 100 years and Nettles/Sheepstealer was the best to happen to them in the last 300 years.  Some of them have a tradition that includes dragons, and all of them received promises from Tyrion, who always pays his debts.

Given the interconnectedness with Tyrion, Dany, the Clans, Dragons, and the Littlefinger's meddling in the Vale.....I suspect that Dany will foil Littlefinger's plans there and capture the Vale with a combination of ground troops (Dothraki and Unsullied) being led by expert mountain-clan scout....and dragons.  The Eyrie has been emptied out due to winter so all the soldiers are at the base of the mountains....the land the Clans know best.

This would fulfill the foreshadowing about the Eyrie being impregnable to anything but dragons, and also satisfy the centuries-long fued of the first-men Mountain Clans against the Andal invaders (the Arryns) while making tactical sense.  It's also just complex enough that Littlefinger won't see it coming. Bronze Yohn Royce would also make an amazing spy for Dany, given that he hates Littlefinger and the Royce family was THE First-Men opposition against the Arryns hundreds of years ago.  I think he will probably be pivotal, and his entire house will revert back to the fued between the first men and the Arryns that was detailed in Fire and Blood.

It would also be a massive strategic flex on Dany's part.  Winter has arrived and the Eyrie is inaccessible....except on dragonback.  Dragonstone is off-shore, and Dany is going to need a hub for her forces that is not an island.  The Fingers are very near the Vale, and would be an excellent place for her to land her invasion force, since it's mostly uninhabited.  Her dragons like goats, and Littlefinger says there's a whole lot of them where he grew up. From there she can capture the Vale and have a centrally located but easily defensible position that is essentially unassailable, giving her the option to fight north or south.  It's the perfect initial invasion point and if she has Tyrion and the clans, she's uniquely equipped to take it.  It would also make her the only person in the world who can access the Eyrie, because she has Drogon.

That's how I would do it if I were Dany, and I think that GRRM has foreshadowed that sequence of events sufficiently that I believe that's exactly what is going to happen.  If it doesn't, it would be a massive missed-opportunity.

The cherry on top would be if Sansa, installed as ruler of the vale by Littlefinger, were the one to surrender it to Dany, forming the basis of a relationship between the Starks and Targaryens, and laying the eventual trap for Littlefinger.

 

 

 

 

TLDR: The stage is set for Dany and Tyrion to use the clans to capture their initial invasion point on-continent, and there's a huge amount of foreshadowing for it being enabled by the clans.

Wow, that sure turned into a giant wall of text, didn't it?  I probably should have just made a thread.

Great call

However i think a few unexpected allies will be sansas as well

Luthor brune..lfs chief enforcer 'the apple eater' is sweet on arya stone who sansa befriended 

Shes also made fast friends with myranda royce who maintained the gates of the moon

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2 hours ago, Ring3r said:

Disclaimer: I think in detail; this post is really long, and there's a TLDR at the bottom.  Hear me out though.

 

It's heavily implied that Nettles fled to the mountains of the moon at the end of the Dance, and the "Burned Men" clan was an offshoot of the Painted Dogs who came to worship her....or at least had a protection arrangement with her.  There's a reason all the other clans are scared of the Burned Men, and it's probably because they had a dragon on their side for a while.

 

It wouldn't take much for a dragonrider to conqueror the vale clans outright then form an alliance with the Royces, I had the idea of such a thing a while back but didn't use use since I don't write fanfic anymore

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On 2/7/2023 at 6:53 PM, Adelstein said:

Having been major fixtures in the first two books in the series, Shagga son of Dolf (the best-named character in ASoIaF) and co. departed remarkably quickly. When they first appeared, it seemed that this plot was going to go somewhere, with Tyrion contemplating - even if just to get the Vale mountain clans on side - an uprising against the powers that be in the Vale. And unless I'm forgetting something nothing has happened on this since, with the Vale clans getting scarcely a mention since they were kicked out of King's Landing after the Blackwater.

Now, the only person who has ever shown any real interest in the Vale clans is Tyrion, and they were loyal to him in a way that only really Bronn matches - and even then Bronn's loyalty was explicitly mercenary (even if there came to be a degree of personal loyalty too). So perhaps nothing is likely to happen with the Vale clans until Tyrion gets to the Vale again, which he might not ever. And in any case a clan uprising would probably not trouble any PoVs outside the Vale.

But we do have a Vale PoV, and as it happens, that character is Tyrion's wife. Sansa is perhaps the only person currently in Westeros in a position to deal with the Vale clans on the basis of an existing friendly relationship, perhaps being in a position to deploy them as her own personal muscle in a similar way to Tyrion in King's Landing. And what's more, as a Stark, she is perhaps additionally well-placed to treat with the clans as a fellow First Men-identifier and follower of the Old Gods. With the Vale clans behind her, she would be much less reliant on Littlefinger for protection, and it gives her independent bargaining chips when it comes to other Vale lords.

To get there requires a series of mental leaps: first she has to stop being Alayne and become Sansa Stark, then she has to identify herself as  Sansa Lannister, and finally realise that her husband is the Halfman, not just T. Lannister of Casterly Rock. It's hard to imagine her making these unless prompted. 

But maybe the scene is being set for just such a prompt, as she leaves the Eyrie (impregnable to the clans) and the lords of the Vale assemble for events which may be more vulnerable to clan attack. If put on the spot, might she have the sudden epiphany necessary to play the cards at her disposal? Or will her somewhat straitjacketed way of thinking stop her from ever coming at the problem laterally enough to realise what she might have at her disposal?

Even if nothing comes of the Sansa thing, what do we think is going to happen with the Vale clans? Are we going to see them again, or is that just an abandoned plot thread?

 

In my latest Jonsa posts from a couple of months ago (never got the time to open a new thread), I mentioned several observations connected to mountain clans.

Firstly, Timett son of Timett is a stand-in for Jon.

They are both burned men. Timett is from a clan that is known as Burned Men and literally deserve that name. Jon got his hand burned fighting against the Wight. Timett is one eyed, Jon too is one eyed in a sense, with the handsome scar given to him by a bird of prey, Orell's eagle which is curiously blue and grey in it's coloring (blue and white bird of prey remind you of anything?) Timett is named red hand, a leader of men among his group by the elders, Jon too is named a leader of men in his group and again "named" by the elders(Commanders Pyke and Mallister), he is also a red hand in the sense that he burned his hand (Tradition among burned man is to burn a pinky finger etc).

Jon steals Ygritte, a redhead, in a vale named Skirling Pass (this is also the place where he becomes one handed). Skirling is a little salmon or trout so Sansa is, in a sense, Skirling since she is the daughter of Catelyn, whose house sigil is a trout.

skirling - Wiktionary

Timett will most likely get a hold of Sansa in a raid but will not touch her once he learns she is Tyrion's wife.

 

 

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The Clans of the Vale contain one of my favorite little conspiracy theories! I claim no proof but would suggest the following…

Timett Son of Timett is the heir to the Vale of Arryn.

"Won't they come before Harry? I don'tunderstand."

"You will. Listen." Petyr took her hand in his own and brushed his finger lightly down the inside of her palm. "Lord Jasper Arryn, begin with him. Jon Arryn's father. He begot three children, two sons and a daughter. Jon was the eldest, so the Eyrie and the lordship passed to him. His sister Alys wed Ser Elys Waynwood, uncle to the present Lady Waynwood." He made a wry face. "Elys and Alys, isn't that precious? Lord Jasper's younger son, Ser Ronnel Arryn, wed a Belmore girl, but only rang her once or twice before dying of a bad belly. Their son Elbert was being born in one bed even as poor Ronnel was dying in another down the hall. Are you paying close attention, sweetling?"

"Yes. There was Jon and Alys and Ronnel, but Ronnel died."

"Good. Now, Jon Arryn married thrice, but hisfirst two wives gave him no children, so for longyears his nephew Elbert was his heir. Meantime, Elys was plowing Alys quitedutifully, and she was whelping once a year. Shegave him nine children, eight girls and one precious little boy, another Jasper, after which she died exhausted. Boy Jasper, inconsiderate of the heroic efforts that had gone into begetting him, got himself kicked in the head by a horse when he was three years old. A pox took two of his sisters soon after, leaving six. The eldestmarried Ser Denys Arryn, a distant cousin to the Lords of the Eyrie. There are several branches of House Arryn scattered across the Vale, all as proud as they are penurious, save for the Gulltown Arryns, who had the rare good senseto marry merchants. They're rich, but less than couth, so no one talks about them. Ser Denys hailed from one of the poor, proud branches . . . but he was also a renowned jouster, handsome and gallant and brimming with courtesy. And he had that magic Arryn name, which made him ideal for the eldest Waynwood girl. Their children would be Arryns, and the next heirs to the Vale should any ill befall Elbert. Well, as it happened, Mad King Aerys befell Elbert. Youknow that story?"

She did. "The Mad King murdered him."

"He did indeed. And soon after, Ser Denys left his pregnant Waynwood wife to ride to war. He died during the Battle of the Bells, of an excess of gallantry and an axe. When they told his lady of his death she perished of grief, and her newborn son soon followed. No matter. Jon Arryn had gotten himself a young wife during the war, one he had reason to believe fertile. He was very hopeful, I'm sure, but you and I know that all he ever got from Lysa were stillbirths, miscarriages, and poor Sweetrobin.

"Which brings us back to the five remaining daughters of Elys and Alys. The eldest had been left terribly scarred by the same pox that killed her sisters, so she became a septa. Another was seduced by a sellsword. Ser Elys cast her out, and she joined the silent sisters after her bastard died in infancy. The third wed the Lord of the Paps, but proved barren. The fourth was on her way to the riverlands to marry some Bracken when Burned Men carried her off. That left the youngest, who wed a landed knight sworn to the Waynwoods, gave him a son that she named Harrold, and perished." He turned her hand over and lightly kissed her wrist. "So tell me, sweetling—why is Harry the Heir?"

Her eyes widened. "He is not Lady Waynwood's heir. He's Robert's heir. If Robert were to die . . ."

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7 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

The Clans of the Vale contain one of my favorite little conspiracy theories! I claim no proof but would suggest the following…

Timett Son of Timett is the heir to the Vale of Arryn.

"Won't they come before Harry? I don'tunderstand."

"You will. Listen." Petyr took her hand in his own and brushed his finger lightly down the inside of her palm. "Lord Jasper Arryn, begin with him. Jon Arryn's father. He begot three children, two sons and a daughter. Jon was the eldest, so the Eyrie and the lordship passed to him. His sister Alys wed Ser Elys Waynwood, uncle to the present Lady Waynwood." He made a wry face. "Elys and Alys, isn't that precious? Lord Jasper's younger son, Ser Ronnel Arryn, wed a Belmore girl, but only rang her once or twice before dying of a bad belly. Their son Elbert was being born in one bed even as poor Ronnel was dying in another down the hall. Are you paying close attention, sweetling?"

"Yes. There was Jon and Alys and Ronnel, but Ronnel died."

"Good. Now, Jon Arryn married thrice, but hisfirst two wives gave him no children, so for longyears his nephew Elbert was his heir. Meantime, Elys was plowing Alys quitedutifully, and she was whelping once a year. Shegave him nine children, eight girls and one precious little boy, another Jasper, after which she died exhausted. Boy Jasper, inconsiderate of the heroic efforts that had gone into begetting him, got himself kicked in the head by a horse when he was three years old. A pox took two of his sisters soon after, leaving six. The eldestmarried Ser Denys Arryn, a distant cousin to the Lords of the Eyrie. There are several branches of House Arryn scattered across the Vale, all as proud as they are penurious, save for the Gulltown Arryns, who had the rare good senseto marry merchants. They're rich, but less than couth, so no one talks about them. Ser Denys hailed from one of the poor, proud branches . . . but he was also a renowned jouster, handsome and gallant and brimming with courtesy. And he had that magic Arryn name, which made him ideal for the eldest Waynwood girl. Their children would be Arryns, and the next heirs to the Vale should any ill befall Elbert. Well, as it happened, Mad King Aerys befell Elbert. Youknow that story?"

She did. "The Mad King murdered him."

"He did indeed. And soon after, Ser Denys left his pregnant Waynwood wife to ride to war. He died during the Battle of the Bells, of an excess of gallantry and an axe. When they told his lady of his death she perished of grief, and her newborn son soon followed. No matter. Jon Arryn had gotten himself a young wife during the war, one he had reason to believe fertile. He was very hopeful, I'm sure, but you and I know that all he ever got from Lysa were stillbirths, miscarriages, and poor Sweetrobin.

"Which brings us back to the five remaining daughters of Elys and Alys. The eldest had been left terribly scarred by the same pox that killed her sisters, so she became a septa. Another was seduced by a sellsword. Ser Elys cast her out, and she joined the silent sisters after her bastard died in infancy. The third wed the Lord of the Paps, but proved barren. The fourth was on her way to the riverlands to marry some Bracken when Burned Men carried her off. That left the youngest, who wed a landed knight sworn to the Waynwoods, gave him a son that she named Harrold, and perished." He turned her hand over and lightly kissed her wrist. "So tell me, sweetling—why is Harry the Heir?"

Her eyes widened. "He is not Lady Waynwood's heir. He's Robert's heir. If Robert were to die . . ."

100% plausible, but given that the woman was carried off against her will, making Timett a bastard, unable to inherit.  I'd totally buy him being a blood relative though.

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12 hours ago, Ring3r said:

100% plausible, but given that the woman was carried off against her will, making Timett a bastard, unable to inherit.  I'd totally buy him being a blood relative though.

No reason they couldn't have been married by the law of the First Men at least following her abduction, I suspect.

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9 hours ago, Adelstein said:

No reason they couldn't have been married by the law of the First Men at least following her abduction, I suspect.

Sure, but then you're right back to the issue of inheritance through the female line, which has a small bit of history in Planetos. :rofl:

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My Sansa and the Giants prediction:

Featured tourneys in the books or related stories (Dunk & Egg) always end prematurely. There's no way the Vale tourney will not be interrupted by death and disaster. Since "Winter has come" and almost every family and house is there, except for Runestone Royces, not even the wives of those participating, we must turn the disaster up to 11.

An avalanche because of a "tremor" + attack by the mountain clans, led by Timett son of Timett. (No Shagga, because he is at Kingswood)

Harry the Heir will die and possibly Sweetrobin, and most Andal Vale houses will have lost heirs, etc. The Mountain Clans are vicious highway robbers, no doubt, but also the descendants of an Andal genocide, after the Andals took their lands and chased them off (those they didn't enslave at the time). The Andals created a people whose sole means of survival during harsher times was via highway robbery. And they had the luxury for thousands of years to ignore them. George does not write such a back history if it is not going to come back and bite. And there's just no way that after Tyrion armed them with new, better steel and armor, these mountain clans will opt to starve in the mountains during one of the harshest winters in recent memory, when Littlefinger has the large grain storages. Mountain Clans have attacked the Gates of the Moon (the castle where the tourney is held) before (a few times), and they always did during winter (better to die trying than die from starvation mentality). Such an attack was the reason why the Eyrie was built in the first place. The Bloody Gate can usually defend against such attacks. But it won't if it's damaged by a devastating avalanche, and many of the fighting men at the tourney end up as corpses buried beneath the snow.

There are several avalanche allusions

  • The Mountain that Rides like an avalanche at the Tourney of the Hand (in Sansa's POV), and he's also the one who kills the Vale knight Hugh, whose moons end up bloody. (gates of the moon). Notice that the mountain of the Eyrie is called Giant's Lance.
  • Cat thinks the path up to the Eyrie could be defended by causing an avalanche
  • Sansa thinks of the Lords Declarant encamped at the gates of the moon as ants she would like to see smashed from her Eyrie viewpoint
  • The snow castle scene with Sweetrobin features several giants: the doll, but Sweetrobin too. SR is a giant mountain in comparison to the castle, and he falls on it and shakes, destroying it.
  • Another avalanche mention can be found in Bran's second chapter of aDwD, when they are attacked by the wights hiding beneath the snow as they try to reach the entrance of the cave of CotF and BR. Hodor ("giant") falls from a slope and causes an "avalanche". And here we have the corpses already buried in the snow.

Now, some of these mountain clans are loyal to Tyrion, but not all. Timett was the most helpful and understanding of hierarchy in KL, so much that Tyrion ends up relying on Timett the most. But he's also the one who packs up and go after the battle of the Blackwater by himself, never even offering his services to Tyrion or Tywin. Shagga decided to remain a highway robber at Kingswood. Only Chella and the Black Ears present themselves at KL to offer their services again, but are turned away. 

Via Arya's POV and Sansa's we learn of some of the returned clans, empowered with their better arms, being even more vicious in attacking villages and the road to the Eyrie is completely unsafe now. But the Burned Men are notably not amongst these clans mentioned.

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Any plot involving somebody trying to abduct or 'save' Sansa yet again would be boring and repetitive. So please don't. And guys, if you have to think about how the story might continue, try to be more creative. Also, of course, this story doesn't have to destroy every region of Westeros equally. There are narrative reasons why the North is invaded, why the Reach is weakened/distracted at the moment ... just as there is a reason why the Vale has been kept out of the fighting so far.

Also, of course, no chance for calamity in the Vale while those troops might yet have a chance to wreak havoc some place more important. The time for the clansmen to show up and fuck the Vale would be at a point in time when the majority of the fighting men of the Vale have taken ship to fight in some other place, leaving their home relatively defenseless.

Better weapons or not, the clansmen don't have the numbers to really threaten the Vale, especially not while they have no leader to unite the various clans in one powerful force. In that sense - if they come back into action it might be when Tyrion finally returns to Westeros on dragonback ... because then he and/or Daenerys can just fly up into the mountains to telll the clansmen who to attack, etc.

Although, of course, the question remains:

Why would anyone ever bother with the Vale? In winter you only get there by ship, so no conqueror from Westeros or Essos would either land nor try to invade there unless they have a good reason to do so. Which they likely never will.

The Vale will become important as a provider of food and troops during winter, but it will hopefully not be a place people will care for or even fight over.

The avalanche idea would involde the people in-universe to be utter morons. There is no way the Gates of the Moon would stand where they do if the castle was within reach of an avalanche from the closest mountain - much less is there a reason to assume the people there would be as stupid as to put their tourney ground at a place threatened by avalanches. The Vale isn't large compared to the other regions, but it isn't an narrow vale, either. And the Arryns living on-and-off a gigantic mountain would have thousands of years of experience in how to deal with the avalanches that must occur quite regularly in their home.

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49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Any plot involving somebody trying to abduct or 'save' Sansa yet again would be boring and repetitive.

Don't reject it out of hand. GRRM likes repetition, shown by his dragon-of-time idea.

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The avalanche idea would involde the people in-universe to be utter morons.

Well, yeah. But people everywhere have made a total mess of storing up food for winter, and have to be reminded by the likes of Luwin and LF. Ridiculous, but there it is.

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no way the Gates of the Moon would stand where they do if the castle was within reach of an avalanche from the closest mountain - much less is there a reason to assume the people there would be as stupid as to put their tourney ground at a place threatened by avalanches. The Vale isn't large compared to the other regions, but it isn't an narrow vale, either. And the Arryns living on-and-off a gigantic mountain would have thousands of years of experience in how to deal with the avalanches that must occur quite regularly in their home.

There has been a long summer, and people have short memories. Also it's unlikely to be a natural avalanche - it may need (and get) a lot of help to get going.

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2 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Don't reject it out of hand. GRRM likes repetition, shown by his dragon-of-time idea.

There is also the fact that Sansa finally has to be a player in her own right, a young woman in charge of her destiny, rather than being dragged around by another bunch of filthy men.

2 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

There has been a long summer, and people have short memories. Also it's unlikely to be a natural avalanche - it may need (and get) a lot of help to get going.

Natural or not doesn't really matter. The mountain is the mountain and people should know how far an avalanche will go. This is pretty simple. If the Gates of the Moon were within the range of an avalanche from the Giant's Lance or some other mountain ... it would have been destroyed thousands of years ago. Just as the Eyrie would, as it happens. It isn't at the top of the mountain, either.

Not saying that plotline could have no merit - but I just don't think that the point of the show is to have everything going to hell everywhere at the same time. At this point, an avalanche close to the Gates of the Moon wouldn't even work - it barely snowed up at the Eyrie when Sansa and Robert were moving down, and they weren't down at the Gates for a long time when the tourney is announced. I mean, at this time it doesn't even snow down in the Vale yet - which means there wouldn't much snow/danger of avalanches up the mountains. At a later point in winter this scenario could make some sense, but not now.

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If the Bloody Gate was subject to avalanches, I think we would have heard about it by now.  If the clansmen attack during the tournament, it won't be the tournament itself.  Too many armed men present.  It would probably be an attack on a castle or town whose defenders are mostly at the tournament.  Essentially a smash and grab.  Though I don't know how this would affect Sansa, and the Vale is her story.

She's been captive multiple times, through three books.  We don't need more.  Her story is, I think, one of going from someone to whom stuff happens to someone who makes stuff happen.  The Vale will be her sandbox and finishing school.  Once she's figured out what's what, she will move on to her real area of interest, the North.

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The point of the thread was not "when will Sansa get kidnapped by some savages?" but precisely about her having the opportunity to develop agency - and power - through her connexion with the Vale clans. Getting from here to there is not straightforward, but it seems preferable to just abandoning the Vale clans plot altogether, which seems the most likely alternative at this point.

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2 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

The point of the thread was not "when will Sansa get kidnapped by some savages?" but precisely about her having the opportunity to develop agency - and power - through her connexion with the Vale clans. Getting from here to there is not straightforward, but it seems preferable to just abandoning the Vale clans plot altogether, which seems the most likely alternative at this point.

If we are making wild predictions and I'm being optimistic, I'd suggest that the mountain clans could attack, and might even capture Sansa and Sweetrobin. This does not mean she won't have a chance for agency. The mountain clans, Timett in particular, could recognize her. If she were to somehow deduce that Timett is a descendent of House Arryn, then sharing this knowledge at the correct time might stop him from killing Sweetrobin, as the Mountain Clans follow the Old Gods who curse kinslayers.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

There is also the fact that Sansa finally has to be a player in her own right, a young woman in charge of her destiny, rather than being dragged around by another bunch of filthy men.

Understood - but one of the fun things about Sansa is her lack of hero qualities, in a family that's full of the fantasy tropes. I'd be a little disappointed if she lands a hero role early in Winds, which could end up very generic and doesn't use what she learned in the game of thrones, which is to be subtle and unreadable and underestimated. A hidden dagger.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Natural or not doesn't really matter. The mountain is the mountain and people should know how far an avalanche will go. This is pretty simple. If the Gates of the Moon were within the range of an avalanche from the Giant's Lance or some other mountain ... it would have been destroyed thousands of years ago. Just as the Eyrie would, as it happens. It isn't at the top of the mountain, either.

Expertise might have contributed to the error of putting the tourney ground in the danger zone. Experts could have checked the snow and reported that no way would that ever come down (assuming of course that no-one's going to roll down the boulders stored for setting of avalanches).

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Not saying that plotline could have no merit - but I just don't think that the point of the show is to have everything going to hell everywhere at the same time. At this point, an avalanche close to the Gates of the Moon wouldn't even work - it barely snowed up at the Eyrie when Sansa and Robert were moving down, and they weren't down at the Gates for a long time when the tourney is announced. I mean, at this time it doesn't even snow down in the Vale yet - which means there wouldn't much snow/danger of avalanches up the mountains. At a later point in winter this scenario could make some sense, but not now.

I admit it's the foreshadowing that mainly convinces me (as excellently set out by @sweetsunray). Reality can bend to it one more time.

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3 hours ago, Nevets said:

If the Bloody Gate was subject to avalanches, I think we would have heard about it by now

Quote

Dawn was breaking in the east as Mya Stone hallooed for the guards, and the gates opened before them. Inside the walls there was only a series of ramps and a great tumble of boulders and stones of all sizes. No doubt it would be the easiest thing in the world to begin an avalanche from here. A mouth yawned in the rock face in front of them. "The stables and barracks are in there," Mya said. "The last part is inside the mountain. It can be a little dark, but at least you're out of the wind. This is as far as the mules can go. Past here, well, it's a sort of chimney, more like a stone ladder than proper steps, but it's not too bad. Another hour and we'll be there." (aGoT, Catelyn VI)

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

it barely snowed up at the Eyrie when Sansa and Robert were moving down, and they weren't down at the Gates for a long time when the tourney is announced.

Quote

The snow began to fall as they were leaving Stone, the largest and lowest of the three waycastles that defended the approaches to the Eyrie. Dusk was settling by then. Lady Myranda suggested that perhaps they might turn back, spend the night at Stone, and resume their descent when the sun came up, but Mya would not hear of it. "The snow might be five feet deep by then, and the steps treacherous even for my mules," she said. "We will do better to press on. We'll take it slow." (aFfC, Alayne II)

Spoiler

The Waynwoods laughed, and even Harry the Heir cracked a thin smile. "It was snowing in the passes, else we would have been here sooner," said Lady Anya. (tWoW, Alayne I)

It's been snowing even in King's Landing by Kevan's murder. That epilogue can be timelined around Jon IX, given the topics discussed at the small council. The organizing of the tourney took time, and it took time for plenty of houses to arrive, because the snow is starting to close off passes.

As for the critique on Sansa being abducted again. I agree. Personally, I think Sansa will be in her element directing people to be calm, in the middle of the snow, to be an intermediary between mountain clans and the survivors at the Gates of the Moon. Timett can and will no doubt recognize her. And I think she will choose and rally her own support from First Men of the Vale, such as the Royces and the mountain clans. She herself is a descendant of a Flint. 

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