Mrs Halfman and the Clans of TVOA - Whatever happened to the mountain tribes?

[Nevets]

28 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

 

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The Waynwoods laughed, and even Harry the Heir cracked a thin smile. "It was snowing in the passes, else we would have been here sooner," said Lady Anya. (tWoW, Alayne I)

It's been snowing even in King's Landing by Kevan's murder. That epilogue can be timelined around Jon IX, given the topics discussed at the small council. The organizing of the tourney took time, and it took time for plenty of houses to arrive, because the snow is starting to close off passes.

As for the critique on Sansa being abducted again. I agree. Personally, I think Sansa will be in her element directing people to be calm, in the middle of the snow, to be an intermediary between mountain clans and the survivors at the Gates of the Moon. Timett can and will no doubt recognize her. And I think she will choose and rally her own support from First Men of the Vale, such as the Royces and the mountain clans. She herself is a descendant of a Flint. 

The Catelyn reference mentions only boulders and stones, nothing about snow.  Plus they were practically at the Eyrie by that point.  There is no way anyone is getting that far now.  There is no mention of avalanches of snow ever being an issue anywhere in the Vale, much less the Bloody Gate.  If GRRM is going to give us one, he needs to prepare his audience; he hasn't.

Timmett and Sansa have met, I believe, one time, when Tyrion rescued Sansa from Joffrey's public beating of her.  I don't recall Tyrion and Sansa interacting much before their marriage, so I doubt Timmett would have seen her much.  By the time she married Tyrion, the clansmen were long gone.  They may well not even know about it.

I can see her getting involved in negotiations with the clans, but I would expect that later on, when she has acquired more knowledge and experience.

 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Adelstein said:

The point of the thread was not "when will Sansa get kidnapped by some savages?" but precisely about her having the opportunity to develop agency - and power - through her connexion with the Vale clans. Getting from here to there is not straightforward, but it seems preferable to just abandoning the Vale clans plot altogether, which seems the most likely alternative at this point.

I didn't say the clansmen will never come back ... but certainly not in connection with Sansa. There is no agency for her with a bunch of starving savages - especially not if the alternative is to control the men of the Vale either through Robert or Harrold or both. For Sansa, the time should be over to have 'agency' by convincing folks that she some man's wife or some dead man's daughter or some man's alleged bastard daughter - and that's what she would have to do with the clansmen.

Not to mention how bad a plot it would be to reuse the silly AGoT 'some smart ass noble talks the savages into doing what he wants' routine. That was a bad plot element back then, and any callback to it won't be any better. In a sense it might not be bad to never revisit those clansmen who went back to their mountains.

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

If we are making wild predictions and I'm being optimistic, I'd suggest that the mountain clans could attack, and might even capture Sansa and Sweetrobin. This does not mean she won't have a chance for agency. The mountain clans, Timett in particular, could recognize her. If she were to somehow deduce that Timett is a descendent of House Arryn, then sharing this knowledge at the correct time might stop him from killing Sweetrobin, as the Mountain Clans follow the Old Gods who curse kinslayers.

That also feels like another pointless 'let us put a character into some trouble on the road and in the wild' plot. We have enough of those, and Sansa is ill equipped for that kind of shit. But she got the equivalent for that stuff throughout ACoK and ASoS so why not finally move on to something more productive?

This thing is like imagining that Ned's attempt to rise his troops during the Rebellion was constantly interrupted by him being captured by this or that random lord. That would all be bad filler material.

1 hour ago, Springwatch said:

Understood - but one of the fun things about Sansa is her lack of hero qualities, in a family that's full of the fantasy tropes. I'd be a little disappointed if she lands a hero role early in Winds, which could end up very generic and doesn't use what she learned in the game of thrones, which is to be subtle and unreadable and underestimated. A hidden dagger.

Not a hero role. Just one where she actually controls an army - through 'feminine wiles' and manipulation, of course, not like a little amazon general, but still. Also, of course, I want her to put ideas into Littlefinger's head. She has already started doing that by using the techniques he taught her to convince him she actually likes him.

Honestly, the last thing I want Sansa to do with her few chapters in those books is to waste time with fucking Timmett or, worse, Sandor Clegane. Sansa doesn't need stinking savages - she can have all the Vale worship her. She can become Lady Arryn by marriage.

1 hour ago, Springwatch said:

Expertise might have contributed to the error of putting the tourney ground in the danger zone. Experts could have checked the snow and reported that no way would that ever come down (assuming of course that no-one's going to roll down the boulders stored for setting of avalanches).

Well, the tourney ground should be next to the castle - and the castle clearly is not within avalanche territory.

And I really fear the idea there is people confusing the actual distances, etc. While folks would be in danger from avalanches and such on the route to the Eyrie ... they are not down in the Vale because, again, the Vale is no narrow vale but actually pretty big.

Regarding the quotes - the avalanche-triggering doesn't refer to an avalanche of snow and ice but of stone and boulders - one to attack folks trying to get up to the Eyrie.

And, yes, yes, it has been snowing some ... up in the mountains and the mountain passes. Not down in the Vale. Which means at this point the avalanche risk should be minimal.

48 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

It's been snowing even in King's Landing by Kevan's murder. That epilogue can be timelined around Jon IX, given the topics discussed at the small council. The organizing of the tourney took time, and it took time for plenty of houses to arrive, because the snow is starting to close off passes.

That doesn't mean anything in context. I mean, you know how the weather works and we see it working this way in Westeros, too. Stannis, in the relative south, is stuck in a pretty tough autumn storm while the weather at the Wall is still comparatively mild. That it snows somewhat in KL and Riverrun in AFfC/ADwD doesn't mean it has to snow in the Vale - and to our knowledge it didn't as per Sansa 1. In fact, the Vale being this super fertile ground seems to imply it is blessed with a miraculously mild/warm micro-climate.

48 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Timett can and will no doubt recognize her.

And she wouldn't give shit about him. Why should she?

48 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

And I think she will choose and rally her own support from First Men of the Vale, such as the Royces and the mountain clans. She herself is a descendant of a Flint. 

She doesn't need 'the First Men from the Vale' who are helplessly interbred with the so-called 'Andal houses'. I mean, the books make it perfectly clear that in the thousands of years that passed since the Andal arrival every noble houses in the Vale intermarried with their neighbors. The notion that the nobility view themselves still as Andal and First Men houses is not exactly supported by the text. Hell, folks would also not look down on the clansmen because they are First Men but because they are filthy savages and thieves who couldn't take up a civilized lifestyle in thousands of years (there is no chance that they couldn't have left those mountains to either settle in the Vale after a plagues, harsh winters, etc. culled the population there - not to mention that they could have just turned the other way to settle in the Riverlands. The constant wars in the earlier centuries there could have made the place a paradise for eager sellswords - and the same wars would have left many a farm and village depopulated and abandoned, so the clansmen could have moved in if they had but tried.

I actually doubt they actually want the Vale for themselves. They want to raid and plunder and glory that comes with that in their society. But they don't seem to want to actually move there.

And Sansa Stark has a much better chance to gain the personal loyalty and support of her actual noble kin in the Vale - her Waynwood, Corbray, and (perhaps) Templeton cousins. There is already a party in the Vale that is very likely to support her. She just doesn't know it yet. Or perhaps she does. Sansa is the one child of Ned's who I think might actually have taken a good look at her noble family tree.

[sweetsunray]

37 minutes ago, Nevets said:

The Catelyn reference mentions only boulders and stones, nothing about snow.  Plus they were practically at the Eyrie by that point.  There is no way anyone is getting that far now.  There is no mention of avalanches of snow ever being an issue anywhere in the Vale, much less the Bloody Gate.  If GRRM is going to give us one, he needs to prepare his audience; he hasn't.

He has foreshadowed it. If it were to happen and you check out anything Vale related since aGoT, the hints to it are there. Certainly no less than his foreshadowing of Aegon or the Red Wedding. Did we require "families murdering the grooms and his families at weddings" in order for that foreshadowing to be convincing? Or tales of babies regularly being swapped in the Red Keep? Of course not. Did he "prepare" readers for the Red Wedding? Did he "prepare" readers for Aegon? Did he "prepare" readers for Ned losing his head? Did he "prepare" readers for Catelyn being resurrected? No, not in the way you demand him to prepare for a natural disaster. He has prepared us though for tourneys getting interrupted. It's just that people expect same-same (somebody gets killed by an opponent in a joust). Wow, what a surprise that will be. Nope. George foreshadows and still has the reader think "wow, didn't see that coming."

Of course the point is that they were at the Eyrie by that point. Avalanches don't tend to fly up. BTW I didn't say that the avalanche will attack the Bloody Gate itself. It'll go down the Giant's Lance and end up burrying the Gates of the Moon, and this because of "tremors", earthquakes, which will damage the natural defence advantages of the Bloody Gate.

But sure, Catelyn is only talking about boulders and stone. So, what? It's the word avalanche that matters here. In all of the main series George has used that word 7 times:

• Sansa POV in the Hand's Tourney in relation to a Vale guy dressed like the Gates of the Moon being killed by the lance of the giant Mountain that Rides.
• Catelyn's POV on the Giant's Lance near the Eyrie
• Tyrion's POV when he kills the horse during the battle of the Green Fork: he sticks the "spike" of his helm into the giant warhorse's belly and the horse falls like an avalanche. We have the same picture of a spike/tip of a lance breaking off. The knight whose leg is crushed beneath the warhorse that fell like an avalanche, yielded.
• Tyrion's POV when he pulls down the door to get into the Hand's chamber: there's a soft rumble that sounded like an avalanche in the stillness, and turns out this door gets him in the hearth/fireplace. Here we have a meta burned man appearing after an avalanche.
• Aeron's POV when Asha upends one of the chests on the kingsmoot: pebbles of Stony Shore.
• Brienne's POV: Biter dropping himself onto Brienne like an avalanche. Brienne is nicknamed the Beauty.
• Bran's POV: a small avalanche caused by Hodor (giant) disturbing the snow

So, with 2 out 7 it is tied directly to the Vale. With Tyrion it's twice in relation to the mountain clans. In the first, he fights alongside of them, and in the second he ends up in a fireplace. In both scenes, Tyrion causes it. Brienne has been searching for Sansa and is referred to as beauty and we all know Sansa is meta-tied to the story of Beauty and the Beast. So, we now have 5 out of 7 avalanche references that can be tied to either Sansa, the Vale or mountain clans of the Vale. 3 out of seven involve something lance/spike like. 6 out of 7 include a "giant". The sole one we cannot in any way tie to the Vale or a giant are the pebbles of Stony Shore.

37 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Timmett and Sansa have met, I believe, one time, when Tyrion rescued Sansa from Joffrey's public beating of her.  I don't recall Tyrion and Sansa interacting much before their marriage, so I doubt Timmett would have seen her much.  By the time she married Tyrion, the clansmen were long gone.  They may well not even know about it.

They met on page twice: when Tyrion shows up on Joffrey's nameday tourney and when Sansa's rescued from the abuse at the hands of the KG.

Timett isn't loyal to Tyrion (he left immediately after the battle of the Blackwater without even offering his services again) and he won't be attacking for Tyrion, so whether he knows Sansa was wed to him is unimportant.

 

[deja vu]

Clansmen who went to Kings Landing with Tyrion know who Sansa is, some well enough to see through the rather thin Alayne “disguise” (hair dyed black).  See here for some details. Perhaps it qualifies as heavy tinfoil, but I continue to like the idea  that GRRM’s predilection for turning expectations upside down points to Sansa asserting a claim to Casterly Rock in Tyrion’s name with the support of the clans and the Vale. See here for my write up on that topic.

To expand a little further on the topic, House Lannister will have few other choices for continuation now that Kevan is dead and something tragic seems likely to befall Daven Lannister at the Red Wedding 2.0. If done with a little intelligence, Sansa’s path to Casterly Rock need not involve military force. Indeed, Jamie’s upcoming encounter with Sansa’s mom (Lady Stoneheart, of course) could result in Jamie’s support for Tyrion’s inheritance with Sansa as regent (if that’s the right word for a wife ruling in her husband's absence).

Bringing Sansa and the clans together seems inevitable. Sweetsunray’s avalanche scenario is appealing – GRRM loves (possibly facilitated) natural disasters [volcanic eruptions (maybe facilitated by faceless men), “hammer of the waters (meteor strikes possibly facilitated by the children of the forest),” blizzards, typhoons, etc. – all of mythic proportions] and has sprinkled possible foreshadowing throughout the text. But there are more mundane possibilities. Surely there is a weekly (or daily?) market inside the Gates with farmers and tradesmen from surrounding areas selling their goods. Surely the clans – including many women of the clans - use market days as an opportunity to scout the lay of the land. Indeed, they may have already spotted Sansa and have plans to snatch her on a market day.

As first men who presumably worship the old gods, it is more than likely that there are Weirwood trees in the valleys and vales of the Mountains of the Moon. To pile more tin on the foil, if Sansa visits a Weirwood in clan territories it would be the first time in years that Bran would be able to find her. Maybe send her a dream that suggests a purpose for her life, such as using soft power to conquer the Westerlands. And bring the clans on board when the tree whispers Sansa’s name.

Oops! My tinfoil hat is overheating!

[Nevets]

33 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

He has foreshadowed it. If it were to happen and you check out anything Vale related since aGoT, the hints to it are there. Certainly no less than his foreshadowing of Aegon or the Red Wedding. Did we require "families murdering the grooms and his families at weddings" in order for that foreshadowing to be convincing? Or tales of babies regularly being swapped in the Red Keep? Of course not. Did he "prepare" readers for the Red Wedding? Did he "prepare" readers for Aegon? Did he "prepare" readers for Ned losing his head? Did he "prepare" readers for Catelyn being resurrected? No, not in the way you demand him to prepare for a natural disaster. He has prepared us though for tourneys getting interrupted. It's just that people expect same-same (somebody gets killed by an opponent in a joust). Wow, what a surprise that will be. Nope. George foreshadows and still has the reader think "wow, didn't see that coming."

Of course the point is that they were at the Eyrie by that point. Avalanches don't tend to fly up. BTW I didn't say that the avalanche will attack the Bloody Gate itself. It'll go down the Giant's Lance and end up burrying the Gates of the Moon, and this because of "tremors", earthquakes, which will damage the natural defence advantages of the Bloody Gate.

But sure, Catelyn is only talking about boulders and stone. So, what? It's the word avalanche that matters here. In all of the main series George has used that word 7 times:

• Sansa POV in the Hand's Tourney in relation to a Vale guy dressed like the Gates of the Moon being killed by the lance of the giant Mountain that Rides.
• Catelyn's POV on the Giant's Lance near the Eyrie
• Tyrion's POV when he kills the horse during the battle of the Green Fork: he sticks the "spike" of his helm into the giant warhorse's belly and the horse falls like an avalanche. We have the same picture of a spike/tip of a lance breaking off. The knight whose leg is crushed beneath the warhorse that fell like an avalanche, yielded.
• Tyrion's POV when he pulls down the door to get into the Hand's chamber: there's a soft rumble that sounded like an avalanche in the stillness, and turns out this door gets him in the hearth/fireplace. Here we have a meta burned man appearing after an avalanche.
• Aeron's POV when Asha upends one of the chests on the kingsmoot: pebbles of Stony Shore.
• Brienne's POV: Biter dropping himself onto Brienne like an avalanche. Brienne is nicknamed the Beauty.
• Bran's POV: a small avalanche caused by Hodor (giant) disturbing the snow

So, with 2 out 7 it is tied directly to the Vale. With Tyrion it's twice in relation to the mountain clans. In the first, he fights alongside of them, and in the second he ends up in a fireplace. In both scenes, Tyrion causes it. Brienne has been searching for Sansa and is referred to as beauty and we all know Sansa is meta-tied to the story of Beauty and the Beast. So, we now have 5 out of 7 avalanche references that can be tied to either Sansa, the Vale or mountain clans of the Vale. 3 out of seven involve something lance/spike like. 6 out of 7 include a "giant". The sole one we cannot in any way tie to the Vale or a giant are the pebbles of Stony Shore.

They met on page twice: when Tyrion shows up on Joffrey's nameday tourney and when Sansa's rescued from the abuse at the hands of the KG.

Timett isn't loyal to Tyrion (he left immediately after the battle of the Blackwater without even offering his services again) and he won't be attacking for Tyrion, so whether he knows Sansa was wed to him is unimportant.

 

Your definition of preparation is evidently different from mine.  I don't see anything where a reader, looking back, will realize the signs.

With the Red Wedding, in retrospect it makes perfect sense.  Walder Frey, like much of the rest of his family, is a treacherous weasel.  And they were seriously upset about Robb's wedding, even suggesting, in Catelyn's presence, murdering Jeyne herself.  So it's not that hard to buy.

Aegon is tougher, but you still had the smashed face that readers remembered.  Nobody is likely to even remember any of the references you mentioned, even in retrospect.

Also, this is a very long, very densely written series.   Look hard enough, you can probably find just about anything if you squint real hard.

They may or may not attack, but I don't think an avalanche is going to happen.

[sweetsunray]

10 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Your definition of preparation is evidently different from mine.  I don't see anything where a reader, looking back, will realize the signs.

With the Red Wedding, in retrospect it makes perfect sense.  Walder Frey, like much of the rest of his family, is a treacherous weasel.  And they were seriously upset about Robb's wedding, even suggesting, in Catelyn's presence, murdering Jeyne herself.  So it's not that hard to buy.

Aegon is tougher, but you still had the smashed face that readers remembered.  Nobody is likely to even remember any of the references you mentioned, even in retrospect.

Nobody remembers the Mountain killing Ser Hugh? Nobody remembers a snow castle being smashed by a boy having the shakes? As imagery they are very memorable.

I did not claim that the avalanche mentions are the "foreshadowing", nor was that your critique. Your critique was that there haven't been tales of disastrous avalanches in the history of the Vale for a thousands of years (there also hasn't been a Long Night for a thousands of years). I retorted that several shocking events that were foreshadowed also did not prepare the reader as you now demand uniquely for this event. You're also mixing up foreshadowing with set-up and this self invented "prepare the reader with tales of the same happening in the past". Mixing it and piling it onto one heap is muddying the debate imo.

[Nevets]

10 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Nobody remembers the Mountain killing Ser Hugh? Nobody remembers a snow castle being smashed by a boy having the shakes? As imagery they are very memorable.

As imagery they are memorable.  As imagery suggesting an avalanche, or a clan attack, not so much.

If you are suggesting an interruption of the tournament, I completely agree.  Something will happen.  The possibilities are endless.  We could see a death during a joust or the melee.  There may be the possibility of it being murder.  There might be some other scandal; Sansa could be outed; someone missing or believed dead could make an appearance; we could see a mystery knight; and lots of other possibilities.  Death and destruction may or may not be on the agenda; disruption will be.  No tournament has gone smoothly; I don't expect that to change.  Hand's tournament is the only one I remember a death in though, and that was just one person.

[Lord Varys]

25 minutes ago, Nevets said:

They may or may not attack, but I don't think an avalanche is going to happen.

That some clansmen will eventually attack strikes one as a given - winter will be hard, and they will be lacking food, growing desperate, etc. If the Vale sends out troops to fight elsewhere it might even become a dire situation - but we will at best receive reports about such things since if the Vale sends troops to fight elsewhere Sansa Stark is sure as hell not staying behind to act as the POV to cover the clansmen attacks.

The sole exception for a POV of sorts for this I could see would be Tyrion flying up into the mountains on dragonback to recruit his old buddies for some campaign. Although I'm literally at a loss why the hell Tyrion or Daenerys would want to attack the Vale. It is irrelevant. If you land there, you cannot get out of the place in winter overland, so if you want to take Westeros you would be landing at any other place but the Vale.

The supplies in the Vale could technically merit taking control of the place - but that would be something one would try to do through negotiations, not attacks. Not to mention that Dany should be able to secure sufficient provisions for her troops in Essos.

Any setting counting on 'action' taking place in the Vale is a useless waste of time. It would be the very description of a filler episode. Worse, it would actually weaken the support Sansa might be able to find in a Vale which is still untouched by the war. Because it seems clear to me that the entire point of the Sansa story is to put her in a position where she can directly or indirectly control tens of thousands of fresh troops - men who might end up being willing to fight and bleed and die for her, personally.

2 minutes ago, Nevets said:

If you are suggesting an interruption of the tournament, I completely agree.  Something will happen.  The possibilities are endless.  We could see a death during a joust or the melee.  There may be the possibility of it being murder.  There might be some other scandal; Sansa could be outed; someone missing or believed dead could make an appearance; we could see a mystery knight; and lots of other possibilities.  Death and destruction may or may not be on the agenda; disruption will be.  No tournament has gone smoothly; I don't expect that to change.  Hand's tournament is the only one I remember a death in though, and that was just one person.

There is an obvious interruption to the tournament - the news about Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar Targaryen, taking Storm's End and declaring his intention to take the Iron Throne of his grandfather. Obviously, such news arriving when the bulk of the nobility is assembled at one place is a spur of the moment declaration - compared with a revelation. This tourney will be the moment when Sansa Stark decides to shed the disguise of 'Alayne Stone' to put the lords and knights of the Vale before a simple choice. Either continue to suck Lannister cock and eventually sell her to the inbred child king on the Iron Throne - or to take up arms in her defense and help her seat a (possibly) worthy king on the Iron Throne. Because Sansa Stark will only be safe if the regime run by the Lannisters and Tyrells is deposed. She cannot possibly retake Winterfell etc. while Cersei or Margaery/Olenna are still out there, running the kingdom. Because the former thinks she murdered her precious eldest son while the latter know she knows they did it. So neither can allow her to regain position and power as Sansa Stark. They would always send assassins after her.

So Sansa has to get rid of them first.

I don't think Littlefinger will agree with such a bold course, but Sansa won't care. She will woo Harry even before the tourney and then, when she publicly reveals herself, he will worship her. With his humble background he cannot possibly have hoped to claim a bride of such beauty and nobility.

And depending how Sansa plays it, Littlefinger might even not realize that she arranged the entire thing but rather might be buy that they have all been swept away by the moment and have to take the lead now else they would be left behind.

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

As imagery they are memorable.  As imagery suggesting an avalanche, or a clan attack, not so much.

They both suggest destruction

• The moons turning all bloody: Gates of the Moon
• A castle being smashed

That's far more destructive than the disruption of one death in a melee.

ETA: The Hand's Tourney is not the sole one with a person dying. Let me refresh your foggy memory (): Joffrey's name day tourney has several people dying (that was how Joffrey wanted it) and is interrupted by the appearance of "savages" (mountain clans) for whom the doors were opened. The Tourney of Ashford ends in a trial of seven also with a bunch of people dying and killing the heir. Whitewalls tourney results into tearing down the castle and salting the grounds, and Whitewalls was built with Vale marble. In other words, each tourney has foreshadowed/shown each one aspect of the complete disaster the Vale tourney will end up being

• The Gates of the Moon awash with blood
• Mountain Clans' arrival
• A trial (Littlefinger's most like) and the death of Harry the Heir
• Destruction of a Vale castle (Gates of the Moon), the unmasking of someone's false identity (Alayne=Sansa), and revealing several true identities (Mad Mouse, Byron and Morgarth)

[Nevets]

25 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

They both suggest destruction

• The moons turning all bloody: Gates of the Moon
• A castle being smashed

That's far more destructive than the disruption of one death in a melee.

ETA: The Hand's Tourney is not the sole one with a person dying. Let me remind you (): Joffrey's name day tourney has several people dying (that was how Joffrey wanted it) and is interrupted by the appearance of "savages" (mountain clans) for whom the doors were opened. The Tourney of Ashford ends in a trial of seven also with a bunch of people dying and killing the heir. Whitewalls tourney results into tearing down the castle and salting the grounds, and Whitewalls was built with Vale marble.

Joffrey's name day tournament contained no deaths.  I just reread the chapter.  Dontos almost dies, but that's it.

I don't know Ashford or Whitewalls, though I gather they are from Dunk and Egg.  Most readers are likely unfamiliar with them as well.

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Joffrey's name day tournament contained no deaths.  I just reread the chapter.  Dontos almost dies, but that's it.

You're correct. I mixed it up with the abomination. I am correct though that the tourney is interrupted with the gatehouse being opened for Tyrion and his savages, the mountain clans of the Vale.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

I don't know Ashford or Whitewalls, though I gather they are from Dunk and Egg.  Most readers are likely unfamiliar with them as well.

They are from Dunk and Egg, but no less foreshadowing and informative. The theories in predicting Bloodraven being the 3EC were partially based on these novellas. And they're as canon as Fire & Blood and the World Book. They were also used to put the theory forward that Brienne's ancestor is Dunk.

The tourney of Ashford is the backdrop of the first novella of 1998, the Hedge Knight. Dunk attacks Prince Aerion (Brightflame) in defence of a puppet player when Brightflame beats her because he was offended some puppet knight defeated a dragon in her puppet show. Dunk chooses trial by combat, and Aerion makes it a trial of Seven. Crown Prince Baelor Targaryen chooses to fight for Dunk and gets hit in the head with Maekar's mace. Dunk's side wins, but when Baelor removes his helmet, he dies. Maekar is riddled with guilt over being the one who killed his older brother. (Others that die are Humfrey HARDYNG and Humfrey Beesbury)

The tourney of Whitewalls is the backdrop of the last of the three (2010) including a glamored Bloodraven (as Maynard Plum) and the tourney is a conspiracy to gather Blackfyre backers together for Daemon Blackfyre II (who is disguided as John the Fiddler). Gormon Peake is one of the men trying to push hard for Daemon Blackfyre, despite the fact that Daemon does not have Blackfyre with him and Bittersteel is not present either. Black Tom Heddle (yes the Heddle family of the Crossroads Inn) gets killed. Bloodraven arrives in his true identity with an army (including Mad Lothston) to arrest the conspiritors. Lord Butterwell of Whitewalls gets to live and preserve 1/10th of his wealth, but the magnificent Whitewalls of Vale marble is torn down and the lands salted. 

Most readers do not need to be aware of this to dread what the tourney in the Vale will end up being when winter has come and to recognize in hindsight that there are two highly destructive foreshadowings for the Gates of the Moon in Ser Hugh of the Vale's death and the destruction of the snow castle that Sansa and Littlefinger were trying to build together. And it's only logical that George is not trying to make readers expect an avalanche, by referring to such disasters regularly or in the Vale. But also in hindsight that would not come as a surprise, for those rereading. 

This will be the sole and last tourney we'll witness in Westeros in the main story, especially for Sansa. She will have nothing to do with tourneys after this. Hence, it should be the most disastrous ones in memory.

ETA: and to come back to set-up and preparing readers at the level you demand for me to provide... none of the examples I gave such as the red wedding or aegon prepared the reader for it, until the very book in which the event happened: Jaime and Brienne dining with Roose, Catelyn's chapter when they journey from Riverrun to the Twins and GoHH in Arya's chapters for the red wedding. Same for the baby swapping: Jon swaps babies in aFfC, but you don't know it until halfway through aFfC, and originally aFfC and aDwD wasn't intended to be split by POVs and regions. Then in aDwD you get Jons POV on the baby swapping, and Illyrio's story about his late wife and the statue of the young man in his garden, as well as the hints that Young Griff isn't Young Griff. The actual preparation is done in the novel itself. It's not as if I claim that the avalanche will happen in Sansa's first chapter. And you may well get a tale about a historical avalanche in some POV still in tWoW.

[sweetsunray]

regarding the "he must prepare the reader with precedents of avalanches" (in prior books to the event): I checked how often for example guest right was mentioned in aGoT and aCoK, before we end with Freys breaking it during a wedding feast. The custom "guest right" is mentioned only once in aGoT and aCoK alltogether. Once: when Gilly says she noticed Jon never ate Craster's fare so he wouldn't be breaking any guest right.

Quote

"Not you," she said. "I watched. You never ate at his board, nor slept by his fire. He never gave you guest-right, so you're not bound to him. It's for the baby I have to go." (aCoK, Jon III)

It's only in aSoS itself that George starts to establish stories on breaking guest right (rat cook) or has Mormont claim the defensive killing of Craster was breaking guest right (who broke it himself first or revoked it). In other words, before aSoS, the reader doesn't even know what a big deal guest right is. He mentions the custom only once before aSoS. But we do have foreshadowing of Robb's death in aCoK with the HotU vision of Dany and Theon's feast of the dead dream at Winterfell, and both were somehow feasts.

Just to show that the demand of the level of preparedness of the reader for an avalanche in the Vale specifically without tWoW being published exceeds George's writing style of foreshadowed but shocking turn of events. It basically comes down to "tWoW isn't published yet", which is a non-argument and a sad fact of literary life. 

It's okay to disbelieve it, to not liking it. It may end up happening or it may not. George may have planned it and changed his mind. George may have planned something entirely different and change his mind and suddenly think, "hmm avalanche". My proposal meets the set-up writing style by George on how he seeds and foreshadows something. The precedent demand does not.

[Mourning Star]

On 2/11/2023 at 6:08 PM, Lord Varys said:

This thing is like imagining that Ned's attempt to rise his troops during the Rebellion was constantly interrupted by him being captured by this or that random lord. That would all be bad filler material.

I can't tell if this is a joke, since it is literally what happened...

"At the dawn of Robert's Rebellion. The Mad King had sent to the Eyrie for Stark's head, but Jon Arryn sent him back defiance. Gulltown stayed loyal to the throne, though. To get home and call his banners, Stark had to cross the mountains to the Fingers and find a fisherman to carry him across the Bite. A storm caught them on the way. The fisherman drowned, but his daughter got Stark to the Sisters before the boat went down. They say he left her with a bag of silver and a bastard in her belly. Jon Snow, she named him, after Arryn.
"Be that as it may. My father sat where I sit now when Lord Eddard came to Sisterton. Our maester urged us to send Stark's head to Aerys, to prove our loyalty. It would have meant a rich reward. The Mad King was open-handed with them as pleased him. By then we knew that Jon Arryn had taken Gulltown, though. Robert was the first man to gain the wall, and slew Marq Grafton with his own hand. 'This Baratheon is fearless,' I said. 'He fights the way a king should fight.' Our maester chuckled at me and told us that Prince Rhaegar was certain to defeat this rebel. That was when Stark said, 'In this world only winter is certain. We may lose our heads, it's true … but what if we prevail?' My father sent him on his way with his head still on his shoulders. 'If you lose,' he told Lord Eddard, 'you were never here.' "
"No more than I was," said Davos Seaworth.

[Lord Varys]

23 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I can't tell if this is a joke, since it is literally what happened...

One such episode. Which I of course remembered. It stopped him for about a day or two. Sansa falling in with the clansmen will more than just such a distraction. She is now in a position to take over or at least direct the troops of the Vale - like Ned was when he got back home.

[Nevets]

On 2/11/2023 at 6:43 PM, Lord Varys said:

That some clansmen will eventually attack strikes one as a given - winter will be hard, and they will be lacking food, growing desperate, etc. If the Vale sends out troops to fight elsewhere it might even become a dire situation - but we will at best receive reports about such things since if the Vale sends troops to fight elsewhere Sansa Stark is sure as hell not staying behind to act as the POV to cover the clansmen attacks.

The sole exception for a POV of sorts for this I could see would be Tyrion flying up into the mountains on dragonback to recruit his old buddies for some campaign. Although I'm literally at a loss why the hell Tyrion or Daenerys would want to attack the Vale. It is irrelevant. If you land there, you cannot get out of the place in winter overland, so if you want to take Westeros you would be landing at any other place but the Vale.

The supplies in the Vale could technically merit taking control of the place - but that would be something one would try to do through negotiations, not attacks. Not to mention that Dany should be able to secure sufficient provisions for her troops in Essos.

Any setting counting on 'action' taking place in the Vale is a useless waste of time. It would be the very description of a filler episode. Worse, it would actually weaken the support Sansa might be able to find in a Vale which is still untouched by the war. Because it seems clear to me that the entire point of the Sansa story is to put her in a position where she can directly or indirectly control tens of thousands of fresh troops - men who might end up being willing to fight and bleed and die for her, personally.

There is an obvious interruption to the tournament - the news about Aegon Targaryen, son of Rhaegar Targaryen, taking Storm's End and declaring his intention to take the Iron Throne of his grandfather. Obviously, such news arriving when the bulk of the nobility is assembled at one place is a spur of the moment declaration - compared with a revelation. This tourney will be the moment when Sansa Stark decides to shed the disguise of 'Alayne Stone' to put the lords and knights of the Vale before a simple choice. Either continue to suck Lannister cock and eventually sell her to the inbred child king on the Iron Throne - or to take up arms in her defense and help her seat a (possibly) worthy king on the Iron Throne. Because Sansa Stark will only be safe if the regime run by the Lannisters and Tyrells is deposed. She cannot possibly retake Winterfell etc. while Cersei or Margaery/Olenna are still out there, running the kingdom. Because the former thinks she murdered her precious eldest son while the latter know she knows they did it. So neither can allow her to regain position and power as Sansa Stark. They would always send assassins after her.

So Sansa has to get rid of them first.

I don't think Littlefinger will agree with such a bold course, but Sansa won't care. She will woo Harry even before the tourney and then, when she publicly reveals herself, he will worship her. With his humble background he cannot possibly have hoped to claim a bride of such beauty and nobility.

And depending how Sansa plays it, Littlefinger might even not realize that she arranged the entire thing but rather might be buy that they have all been swept away by the moment and have to take the lead now else they would be left behind.

I doubt Sansa will declare herself at the tournament.  It's too early and I doubt she would have the confidence to do something like that.  She needs to get some more learning and experience under her belt.  When she does reveal herself, it will probably be to help the North, or perhaps to get rid of Littlefinger.

I agree that Cersei needs to be removed from power before she can feel safe.  Which is why it's unlikely she will act openly before then.  Sansa is not a big risk taker.  She'll do so if she has to, but I can't see her outing herself and supporting someone she knows nothing about, especially when her main threat is still in power.  That's getting way too chancy.

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I doubt Sansa will declare herself at the tournament.  It's too early and I doubt she would have the confidence to do something like that.  She needs to get some more learning and experience under her belt.  When she does reveal herself, it will probably be to help the North, or perhaps to get rid of Littlefinger.

The North doesn't need Sansa, not while it has (potentially) both Rickon Stark and Jon Snow and (still, kind of) 'Arya Stark'. Nor is Sansa somebody who is particularly associated with the North. Yes, yes, there is the snow Winterfell and all, but that's a reflection of her desire to feel safe again, to have a home again ... not that she actually wants Winterfell or the North. Her dreams were always about southern courts - and her education reflects courtly manners and chivalry of the south. She would not feel at ease or at home at a dreary northern castle like, say, Last Hearth.

Nobody in the Vale would fight for Sansa or anyone in the North now that winter has begun. They might be willing to restore Sansa to Winterfell ... but in spring, not in winter when they would all freeze to death up there.

I don't think Sansa can keep her true identity from people much longer. Harry is there now. How could she hope to control him if he thinks he, as the heir presumptive of the Vale, is going to marry the illegitimate daughter of Littlefinger? Alayne Stone might be beautiful, but she is still a bastard ... and the bastard of lord with not exactly a great bloodline no matter what titles Joff and Tommen have granted him. He is barely better than Davos. We have been told that Lady Waynwood won't force Harry to marry Alayne.

Also, of course, Myranda Royce already knows her true identity, at least that's what has been implied. They might not plan to do this now, but it seems obvious that the news about Aegon will have some impact in the Vale. They cannot possibly ignore something like that. And their relative power is so much stronger now than it was before the war because they were untouched by it.

Also, as I said above, there are Stark cousins in the Vale - Waynwoods, Corbrays, and (perhaps) Templetons. She also is the first cousin of the Lord Robert Arryn of the Vale and now (kind of) the betrothed of his presumptive heir. Also, she happens to be a very beautiful and very highborn maiden in distress. How much more do you need in a feudal setting of this kind to actually have hold over men? Men who still want to win glory in war and feel cheated of that chance by the late Lady Lysa.

5 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I agree that Cersei needs to be removed from power before she can feel safe.  Which is why it's unlikely she will act openly before then.  Sansa is not a big risk taker.  She'll do so if she has to, but I can't see her outing herself and supporting someone she knows nothing about, especially when her main threat is still in power.  That's getting way too chancy.

Cersei as such is already removed from power. But as I said - Sansa needs the entire administration gone. The Tyrells, too, and also Tommen and Myrcella physically. They would all be honor-bound to avenge their elder brother, King Joffrey, so there cannot really ever be peace between them and Sansa - or rather: Sansa cannot count on it to happen even if she were to tell them she had nothing to do with Joff's death. Which would be a lie in any case since Sansa was the carrier of the poison.

I mean, sure enough, technically we could have a lot of pointless filler material about some provincial tourney in the Vale and stuff ... but how would that help to reconnect Sansa's plot with the larger story? It wouldn't. And I'm not necessarily saying she will do this because she has many other options ... but because some other events do force her hand. Like people telling her they know who she is and might out or rat her out if she doesn't take charge.

[Nevets]

I think something major is going to happen at the tournament; I'm just not sure what.  Sansa could potentially get outed or be forced into it.  I just don't see her doing so voluntarily at this point.

Sansa's story, somewhat like her sister's but less so, is at least party about her identity.  She's a Stark, and a Northerner, and is coming to realize that.  And there is too much Northern and Stark imagery in her story.

One possibility is an assault by the Others.  I think they are going to attack sooner rather than later.  She knows Jon Snow and can vouch for him.  She will also be inclined to help her fellow Northerners, and could rally the Vale in support.

I really don't see her story heading south.  Any interest in Kings Landing or being Queen Consort I think got thoroughly beaten out of her by Joffrey and Cersei (literally as well as figuratively).  By the way, as far as the Tyrells are concerned, I don't see them as being as much a threat as you do.  More to the point, Sansa doesn't regard them as any kind of threat, unlike Cersei.  So I don't see her taking them into account in any future plans.

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

I think something major is going to happen at the tournament; I'm just not sure what.  Sansa could potentially get outed or be forced into it.  I just don't see her doing so voluntarily at this point.

Not voluntarily in the sense that she looks forward to it ... but voluntarily in the sense that she realizes she can do this to get what she wants if Littlefinger tries to play it safe for him (but not her) yet again.

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

Sansa's story, somewhat like her sister's but less so, is at least party about her identity.  She's a Stark, and a Northerner, and is coming to realize that.  And there is too much Northern and Stark imagery in her story.

What other imagery could there be for a daughter of Winterfell than Stark imagery? In this setting, where everybody walks aound in the colors of his/her house and has the sigil of the house (likely) also stitched on their panties?

Littlefinger promised her Winterfell and the North - but that doesn't mean she actually wants that for herself. It also doesn't mean she actually think she can get it by relying on him and on the men of the Vale in the middle of winter. As I said - she must know that whilst the Lannister-Baratheon kings and the Tyrells yet sit the Iron Throne she cannot possibly retake the North.

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

One possibility is an assault by the Others.  I think they are going to attack sooner rather than later.  She knows Jon Snow and can vouch for him.  She will also be inclined to help her fellow Northerners, and could rally the Vale in support.

While that is potentially an interesting plot for ADoS or later in the story ... it makes no sense at this point. I'm sure nobody will even inform the Lord Protector of the Vale of the death of Jon Snow, much less bother writing there should the Wall fall. They might learn new things eventually, but not soon.

But the Others ... well, one does hope nobody is mad/stupid enough to send up help up north to stop the Others there. Once the Wall is fallen the North is lost. It would be madness to send troops up there fight in unknown terrain in the middle of winter against ice demons who might very well actually control the weather in winter.

4 hours ago, Nevets said:

I really don't see her story heading south.  Any interest in Kings Landing or being Queen Consort I think got thoroughly beaten out of her by Joffrey and Cersei (literally as well as figuratively).  By the way, as far as the Tyrells are concerned, I don't see them as being as much a threat as you do.  More to the point, Sansa doesn't regard them as any kind of threat, unlike Cersei.  So I don't see her taking them into account in any future plans.

So far she doesn't consider them, but she is learning from Littlefinger now.

Sansa's entire arc sets her up for the rule of queen consort or lady wife - she is the ideal noble lady in conduct and education. And she excels at that even while she is miserable (during the Blackwater, for instance) and enjoys doing that more than she herself even realizes (remember how she liked spending time with Margaery and her girls?).

During the North in winter she couldn't do anything. She wouldn't want to lead armies and stuff, nor would anyone allow her to do it if she wanted to. There isn't much opportunity for politicking and stuff with the castles so far apart from each other and travelling soon becoming very hard due to winter snows.

You have to keep in mind that Sansa is yet a minor, so one or multiple regents or protectors would rule in her stead. But the Northmen would never accept her, in any case, not with Bran and especially Rickon yet out there. Not to mention Jon Snow who also happens to be male. The North never had either a ruling queen nor a ruling lady - and whatever ladies and queen there were who ruled as regents for minor or ailing lords/kings would have been women well-established with the bannermen of their respective husbands/sons. Not a little girl nobody in the North even knows. And Sansa Stark is not just any Stark girl - she is the Lady Lannister King Robb apparently specifically disowned in his last will, she spent the last years down in the south being trained and educated by the likes of Cersei and Tyrion and Littlefinger. She will not be welcome in the North. Not while they have alternative claimants.

The Vale certainly could help Sansa to push through her claim with force - but they wouldn't do that in winter. And if they tried to do it, they would, most likely, fail, because they are not prepared for winter warfare in the North.

Also, by comparison - it is so much easier to get men hungry for glory to die a death in battle for a cause they want to believe in - and on a battlefield close(r) to home. Most of the men of the Vale likely never visited the North nor would they be keen to fight there in winter. Why should they?

Aegon's landing would give the men of the Vale the pretext to take up arms against the Lannisters and Tyrells - and the goal they could pursue for Sansa Stark, her (soon-to-be) Vale husband, and their still living liege lord Robert Arryn in the process of that could be justice for Houses Tully and Stark in the Riverlands. Petyr Baelish is the Lord Paramount of the Trident now. Through their respective mothers both Sansa and Robert have claims to Riverrun - Edmure Tully is all that stands between Sansa and Riverrun at the moment. (Of course, her undead mother also has a strong claim, but they don't know that she is still kind of 'alive'.)

It could go well for all parties involved to cleanse the Riverlands of Freys and Lannisters. Once Sansa/Harry have the allegiance/support of both the Lords of the Vale and the Riverlands they could turn their eyes to the North. Or the south if they feel like being a part of Aegon's court in KL.