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NBA - the King passes Cap, but his team are still crap.


BigFatCoward
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Yeah I have to agree with Maithanet here. Even if Jokic has the best regular season numbers he’s going to lose for 1) voter fatigue similar to when Rose beat LeBron 2) his lack of playoff success. So as long as he’s not blowing the completion out of the water I don’t see him winning MVP this year.

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17 hours ago, Maithanet said:

But if you have too much success in the regular season and nothing to show in the postseason, people will start to ding you, and I think Jokic is coming up on that point. 

Hasn't Denver made it to conference finals a couple of years ago? I think it was during the covid bubble. Sure, it's no ring but it's not as if Denver has just been dropping out of playoffs in the first round either.

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3 hours ago, baxus said:

Hasn't Denver made it to conference finals a couple of years ago? I think it was during the covid bubble. Sure, it's no ring but it's not as if Denver has just been dropping out of playoffs in the first round either.

They did, but Denver is also 1-8 in their last two playoff series and 2-12 in three of their last four, only beating a shitty Portland team 4-2 in the first round.

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4 hours ago, baxus said:

Hasn't Denver made it to conference finals a couple of years ago? I think it was during the covid bubble. Sure, it's no ring but it's not as if Denver has just been dropping out of playoffs in the first round either.

Making the conference finals three years ago is not terribly impressive.  Particularly when balanced with pretty limp flameouts in 2019, 2021 and 2022. 

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3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Making the conference finals three years ago is not terribly impressive.  Particularly when balanced with pretty limp flameouts in 2019, 2021 and 2022. 

Sure, and I'd add that the conference finals were mostly on the back of Murray's heroics, but last year when MPJ and Murray were out for the season, just making the playoffs was an achievement. 

Also, not sure how accurate it is considering how his closest competitor Embiid doesn't have much playoff success either. Or how Giannis stopped winning it after he got his ring. Or how Tatum has seemingly dropped out of contention for the second half of the season despite his playoff success.

To be clear, I'm not advocating for Jokic. I just don't think that a) playoff success has been relevant in deciding the MVP and b) even if it was relevant, losing to the eventual champion when Denver was down two key players and nobody giving them a chance before it began should be a mark against him.

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I think that lack of playoff success is something that combines with voter fatigue.  If Embiid had barely edged out Jokic in 2021 and 2022 (rather than visa versa), then I think his lack of playoff success would also be a talking point. 

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15 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I think that lack of playoff success is something that combines with voter fatigue.  If Embiid had barely edged out Jokic in 2021 and 2022 (rather than visa versa), then I think his lack of playoff success would also be a talking point. 

But that's the point - it's about the regular season, not about the playoffs and especially not about previous seasons.

Everyone gets 82 matches, the player who asserts himself as the most valuable for his team gets the award. There should be no "but last year he..." or "let's see what happens in the playoffs".

Once again, I'm not saying Jokic (or anyone else) is the clear winner for this, but if anyone other than Jokic getting it because "Jokic already won it twice" would be as bad as Jokic getting it because "he already won it twice".

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2 hours ago, baxus said:

Everyone gets 82 matches, the player who asserts himself as the most valuable for his team gets the award. There should be no "but last year he..." or "let's see what happens in the playoffs".

It's always been that way. There really aren't any guidelines the voters have to follow either and we've never really defined what the V in MVP really means, hence why the award is kinda meh. Jordan and LeBron should each have around 10 of them, but they don't. 

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Are you guys expecting the voters to have some robust methodology? They probably just watch their local games, plus some high profile games and highlights and then go look at some stat websites and go with their gut. A bunch of stuff like recency/confirmation bias will be an unconscious influence.

Or are we expecting them to watch all the games, scout the players, record their findings and cross reference with stats, and carefully come up with a detailed analysis on how they reached their conclusion? I don't.

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Missed it last night, but PG suffered a nasty looking knee injury that's likely to sideline him for at least the rest of the regular season. He's going to be reevaluated in 2-3 weeks so who knows when he'll be ready to come back. If he misses playoff games the Clippers are probably screwed. 

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11 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Weren't the Mavs in about 4th when they signed Kyrie?  

To be fair, only four games separate the fourth seed in the West and the twelfth seed.  

That being said, I don't think Irving plays a winning style of basketball.  He's a me-first player.  He doesn't try on defense.  He's not a leader.  

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Gotta say this MVP debate isn't about a negative argument towards Jokic but rather a positive argument for the other two.  Giannis is going to average 30/10/5, joining just Wilt, Robertson, Baylor, and Westbrook.  And he's doing it with more efficient shooting than any of them, even Wilt.  Embiid is averaging over 33 points, more than any center except Wilt, Kareem once, and McAdoo once.  The latter two won MVPs when they scored that much.

There are no wrong answers here - at least between those three.  It should be a fun debate!  That being said, I've watched more NBA basketball this season since I was, like, ten, and if you gave me the first pick in a hypothetical draft I would undoubtedly choose Giannis.  For this season, for the postseason, whatever.  He's clearly the best player in the league.  Not sure if I'd vote for him or Embiid for MVP, but it'd be one of those two.

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