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NBA - the King passes Cap, but his team are still crap.


BigFatCoward
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10 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

At the other end of the spectrum from Giannis and the Joker, I do not understand why any organization would give up draft capital for Kyrie.

https://defector.com/the-dallas-mavericks-now-emit-the-stench-of-death

Because they're desperate to keep Luka, and in their desperation they probably sealed their fate. The only thing saving them from losing him before he's a UFA is that the NBA trade rules may make it impossible to deal him.

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if you were someone like Luka (for example as he looks very very pissed off), would you demand a trade now knowing that your new team has to give up a shitload to get you hence reducing your chances of future success, or run down your contract to go to a contender that doesn't have to give up any pieces?

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25 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

if you were someone like Luka (for example as he looks very very pissed off), would you demand a trade now knowing that your new team has to give up a shitload to get you hence reducing your chances of future success, or run down your contract to go to a contender that doesn't have to give up any pieces?

If you make it clear that you're not going to re-sign, its effectively a trade request anyway. Maybe the cost might be a little less steep when you have less years left on the contract, but that is unlikely for a probable MVP candidate and someone will just do the trade anyway. 

The only way you get to leave without a trade is if your team feels it can contend with you that last year and they might risk it for the championship. 

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46 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

if you were someone like Luka (for example as he looks very very pissed off), would you demand a trade now knowing that your new team has to give up a shitload to get you hence reducing your chances of future success, or run down your contract to go to a contender that doesn't have to give up any pieces?

Like I said a few days ago, the Mavs cannot trade Luka, at least not for a few years. He's in the first year of a five year deal that's already going to make him deeply underpaid and there's no trade package another team can offer that the Mavs can reasonably accept. Just for example, New Orleans could offer four firsts, three swaps over seven years and Zion and the Mavs could argue that's not enough.

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20 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

But when he gets to the end of his current deal he can leave for nothing in his prime right?  They can't demand asset for him when he is at the end of his contract?

Yes, if he does reach the end of his contract, he becomes a free agent and he can sign with any team that has cap space. That team cannot offer the supermax and I think even the regular max is lower than he would get if he stays with his present team though. And its risky forecasting which contender will have cap space because contenders usually have a couple of max contracts already.

But usually I think teams want to secure the player and would trade for them before they become free agents. Not much they can do if they still decide to leave like Kawhi did though. At least he left the Raptors a championship before going to the Clippers.

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Hold up, Luka is "deeply" underpaid under his extension?  According to spotrac, the next four years he's getting paid ~ 40, 43, 46, and 49 million dollars a year.  Now maybe that's "deeply" underpaid when your team is on the hook for paying Karl Anthony Towns ~$58 million in 2026-7, but generally, it's not.

I tend to think Luka won't be traded any time soon, but that's the thing - I tend to think.  Acting like this is absolutist is laughably absurd - particularly when it comes to NBA superstars forcing their teams to trade them, which lately happens about 3 to 4 times a year. 

And a large part of that doubt has to do with Cuban as the Mavs owner.  He's a stubborn bastard - gods love him - but if Luka really is this unhappy most other owners would be convinced by their FOs to cut their losses.  We'll see.  Let's just say I would hardly be surprised if Luka forces his way out of the Mavs by July 2024.

Another important aspect to emphasize is when NBA superstars are traded the team giving them up NEVER gets equal compensation.  At least in my lifetime, I can't name a fucking one.  That's just how these trades are.  And that's not going to change no matter how many future picks and/or swaps the NBA allows teams to include.

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35 minutes ago, DMC said:

Hold up, Luka is "deeply" underpaid under his extension?  According to spotrac, the next four years he's getting paid ~ 40, 43, 46, and 49 million dollars a year.  Now maybe that's "deeply" underpaid when your team is on the hook for paying Karl Anthony Towns ~$58 million in 2026-7, but generally, it's not.

There's going to be a new media deal soon and salaries are expected to spike again. Assuming he doesn't get injured, Luka will likely still be a top five player in the league making those numbers while top 15 guys will likely be inking new deals that start in the $60M range. 

Again, this is always why you extend the player as early as possible if you're convinced you've got a legit star. The Wolves need to hand Ant the bag the second they can this offseason to save money years down the road.

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Another important aspect to emphasize is when NBA superstars are traded the team giving them up NEVER gets equal compensation.  At least in my lifetime, I can't name a fucking one.  That's just how these trades are.  And that's not going to change no matter how many future picks and/or swaps the NBA allows teams to include.

It's looking like the Nets may have. Durant's window is closing quickly as is the Sun's. If they don't win a title in the next two years they will have dramatically lost that trade (and by that point Bridges might actually be the better all around player). 

Edited by Tywin et al.
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10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

There's going to be a new media deal soon and salaries are expected to spike again. Assuming he doesn't get injured, Luka will likely still be a top five player in the league making those numbers while top 15 guys will likely be inking new deals that start in the $60M range. 

While inflation and the anticipated rise in the cap exacerbates this some, this is always the case.  Again, acting like he's "deeply" underpaid making $40 something million a year is comical.  If you evaluate contracts by how much people will be making a few years down the road, that's just means everybody is "deeply" underpaid.  Except Karl Anthony Towns.

13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's looking like the Nets may have. Durant's window is closing quickly as is the Sun's. If they don't win a title in the next two years they will have dramatically lost that trade (and by that point Bridges might actually be the better all around player). 

If wishes were horses...

MIkal Bridges is great!  I love him as a player.  He's not taking the Nets deep into the playoffs anytime soon.  And he's not even close to the revenue Durant brought in as the face of the franchise.

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6 minutes ago, DMC said:

While inflation and the anticipated rise in the cap exacerbates this some, this is always the case.  Again, acting like he's "deeply" underpaid making $40 something million a year is comical.  If you evaluate contracts by how much people will be making a few years down the road, that's just means everybody is "deeply" underpaid.  Except Karl Anthony Towns.

It really isn't comical. LeBron's actual value during his second stint in Cleveland might have been as high as $100M a year, so yes, he was deeply underpaid. I'm not sure what Luka's real value is, but it's a lot higher than $40M and again that deal will look great when fringe All-Stars are making more than him

On KAT, that contract is probably fair market value considering all the factors. The problem will be if they max him out again after it runs out four years from now. Then it becomes a nightmare.

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If wishes were horses...

MIkal Bridges is great!  I love him as a player.  He's not taking the Nets deep into the playoffs anytime soon.  And he's not even close to the revenue Durant brought in as the face of the franchise.

If he's their best player I agree, but if they can get a top 10 player to pair with him then they're cooking with something. Sticking with contract talk, they've got him for dirt cheap for three more seasons after this one and there's a real chance the later firsts the Sun's traded could end up being very valuable (I'm assuming Booker leaves in a few years and they bottom out). Brooklyn likely won this trade (and by a huge amount if the Suns don't win the chip) despite them giving up the better player right now.

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1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

It really isn't comical. LeBron's actual value during his second stint in Cleveland might have been as high as $100M a year, so yes, he was deeply underpaid. I'm not sure what Luka's real value is, but it's a lot higher than $40M and again that deal will look great when fringe All-Stars are making more than him

Owners, and even GMs, don't look at "actual value" operationalized by data analysts when deciphering how much a $40+ million salary a year eats up their yearly costs.  It's comical you think they would.

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Brooklyn likely won this trade (and by a huge amount if the Suns don't win the chip) despite them giving up the better player right now.

I agree getting Bridges long-term for Durant makes the deal better than most.  But you still are simply misunderstanding what "equal value" means -- not to mention just nitpicking.

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15 minutes ago, DMC said:

Owners, and even GMs, don't look at "actual value" operationalized by data analysts when deciphering how much a $40+ million salary a year eats up their yearly costs.  It's comical you think they would.

Of course they don't, but in trade discussions a player's contract matters and if Luka is to be traded while there are potentially two years left on his current deal, that only increases his value.

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I agree getting Bridges long-term for Durant makes the deal better than most.  But you still are simply misunderstanding what "equal value" means -- not to mention just nitpicking.

How am I? The Nets weren't going to win with their current roster and made a deal that significantly increases the chances of them being better in the long term and the cost was an aging, broken superstar. The only way the Suns win this deal is if they win a championship and even then that's still a bit of an unknown until years from now when we see what those picks turn into. You were the one that said teams never get equal value on return when they ship out the better player, but this could easily turn out to be an example of that happening.

Another recent example is the trade between the Clippers and Thunder. I just looked at a few articles ranking the top players in the league and they all had SGA well ahead of PG. So not only did they end up with the better player after two seasons, they still control the Clipper's next five drafts (and again, they're probably going to bottom out before the last pick is selected). You're right that the norm is to not get equal value, but to say it never happens is not true (and I'm pretty sure a few years from now the Jazz will look like they robbed the Wolves and Portland will likely do the same if they trade Lillard for a massive haul). 

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Of course they don't, but in trade discussions a player's contract matters and if Luka is to be traded while there are potentially two years left on his current deal, that only increases his value.

Ok.  But that's not what you were saying.  At all.  You were asserting Luka was "deeply" underpaid in his extension when in actuality he's being paid 40 plus million a year and because of that the Mavs "cannot" trade him.  Then used analytics to try change the goal posts.  All of which, again, is comical.

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8 minutes ago, DMC said:

Ok.  But that's not what you were saying.  At all.  You were asserting Luka was "deeply" underpaid in his extension when in actuality he's being paid 40 plus million a year and because of that the Mavs "cannot" trade him.  Then used analytics to try change the goal posts.  All of which, again, is comical.

Why are you acting like I said that was the only reason? I said it's a factor and did not list it as the primary one, which is there's no offer you can make combining picks and an All-Star level talent that would make sense for the Mavs while also not completely destroying the team you'd be sending him to (hence why he'd veto the trade). His contract matters but it's far from everything. My point was it will be interesting to see what happens if he does demand a trade, which seems to be the expectation at this point, considering there's probably no offer the Mavs, and Cuban in particular, can accept and that it will be fascinating to see how a scenario like that plays out (with my assumption being they will ultimately have to trade him if that's his demand). 

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Why are you acting like I said that was the only reason? I said it's a factor and did not list it as the primary one, which is there's no offer you can make combining picks and an All-Star level talent that would make sense for the Mavs while also not completely destroying the team you'd be sending him to (hence why he'd veto the trade).

Because you made a declarative statement that the Mavs CAN'T trade him any time soon.  When recent history shows us that those in very similar positions actually DO trade such superstars - and find partners wherein they, at least, deem the return acceptable.

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19 minutes ago, DMC said:

Because you made a declarative statement that the Mavs CAN'T trade him any time soon.  When recent history shows us that those in very similar positions actually DO trade such superstars - and find partners wherein they, at least, deem the return acceptable.

I'm not sure there's a situation that's comparable to this one if the trade demand came this offseason*. Guys have sought trades at this point in their careers, but I can't think of anyone as remotely valuable as Luka and it doesn't help that lesser players have been traded recently for huge hauls that can't be exceeded by that much at the moment. So to circle back a bit, yes, in these situations teams rarely get an equal return, but you can live with 80 cents on the dollar hoping one of those picks turns into a star. Idk how you live with 50 cents on the dollar and that's what trading Luka now would probably be which leads to the situation where the Mavs both cannot trade him and will probably have to if he's done there, which should be pretty entertaining to see play out. 

*Worth noting I brought this up as a comparison to Lamar's trade request, because he's probably the most valuable asset that's ever became available in NFL history and if Luka demanded out he'd become the equivalent in the NBA. 

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28 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'm not sure there's a situation that's comparable to this one if the trade demand came this offseason*.

Well, that's just a lack of imagination on your part as well as a poor understanding of history.  Luka may be younger than most superstars that were traded, but brass tacks is salary and how long the receiving team controls the player.  THAT'S what matters in trades.  Any trades.

In that regard, there are plenty of comparable examples.  Acting like Luka is especially different when some of the greatest players in NBA history have been traded when they're at such a level is, again, comical.  Let alone recent examples like AD -- who undoubtedly was valued comparatively to Luka in most ways other than being a few years older.  Hate bringing up AD, cuz I'm sure you'll nitpick that to death as well in myriad dumbass ways, but that's the fact of the matter.

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