NBA - the King passes Cap, but his team are still crap.

[briantw]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

The Magic are in an optimal position this offseason to add a high-priced player one way or another.  The epic failure that is the Gobert trade - and others - I hope will be informative.  Like, literally, no one in their right mind would trade Walker Kessler for Gobert straight up right now, regardless of salary. 

Adding "one more piece" rarely works.  Mitchell with the Cavs looks close to that, but it's rare.  Other than Luka, I can't think of another player on the market that is worth how much teams demand for a "premier" player.  I'll take Banchero, Wagner, Carter, Fultz, Suggs, Anthony, and the 6th and 12th picks over just about any overpriced "superstar," thanks.

Situations change fast in the NBA.  Utah went from a perennial mid-tier playoff team to rebuilding pretty much overnight.  Mitchell and Gobert weren't available two years ago.  Then they suddenly were.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, briantw said:

Situations change fast in the NBA.  Utah went from a perennial mid-tier playoff team to rebuilding pretty much overnight.  Mitchell and Gobert weren't available two years ago.  Then they suddenly were.

K.  Not sure what your point is.  I agree the NBA is volatile and a lot of teams get trapped in that middle ground.  The key is either to shoot for the sky when tanking, or to, ya know, be a contender.

[briantw]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

K.  Not sure what your point is.  I agree the NBA is volatile and a lot of teams get trapped in that middle ground.  The key is either to shoot for the sky when tanking, or to, ya know, be a contender.

My point is that someone could become available a year from now that is worth sending some real assets for even if that person isn't someone you'd expect to become available that quickly.  

[DMC]

1 minute ago, briantw said:

My point is that someone could become available a year from now that is worth sending some real assets for even if that person isn't someone you'd expect to become available that quickly.  

Ah.  I hope you're right!  But, like, since we're on a discussion board, who?  Even hypothetically, I can't think of anyone.  And trust me, I HAVE been trying to think of somebody since, like, Banchero made his statement with his opening game in October.

[Proudfeet]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

The Magic are in an optimal position this offseason to add a high-priced player one way or another.  The epic failure that is the Gobert trade - and others - I hope will be informative.  Like, literally, no one in their right mind would trade Walker Kessler for Gobert straight up right now, regardless of salary. 

Adding "one more piece" rarely works.  Mitchell with the Cavs looks close to that, but it's rare.  Other than Luka, I can't think of another player on the market that is worth how much teams demand for a "premier" player.  I'll take Banchero, Wagner, Carter, Fultz, Suggs, Anthony, and the 6th and 12th picks over just about any overpriced "superstar," thanks.

Yeah, feel like Gobert's value has cratered. Didn't think he was ever worth the supermax given his severe offensive limitations but you either pay your stars what they qualify for or they walk. And to be fair to the Jazz, they did look possible that one season.

Disagree that "one more piece" rarely works though. Its just hard to win. It's not like you can expect KD to Warriors almost certainty. 

Based on recent history, the Bucks (Holiday) beat the Suns (CP3), the Lakers (AD) won against the Heat (Butler) and the Raptors won with Kawhi (and Ibaka and Gasol). Even the Warriors with Curry/Klay/Draymond started their turnaround with Iguodala. 

Of course, there are a lot of failures, trades that send teams backwards, but I think that is a separate issue from claiming it doesn't work. Unless you are only counting "premier" players, but even in that case it usually results in the team being reformed instead of being "one more piece".

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I think the more cautionary way to view making massive splash trades is when new owners do them. That seems to almost always go poorly regardless of the sport. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

11 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Behind Kyrie or Simmons? 

AFFIRMATIVE!

[DMC]

7 hours ago, Proudfeet said:

Based on recent history, the Bucks (Holiday) beat the Suns (CP3), the Lakers (AD) won against the Heat (Butler) and the Raptors won with Kawhi (and Ibaka and Gasol). Even the Warriors with Curry/Klay/Draymond started their turnaround with Iguodala. 

Yeah, I guess I'm over-qualifying it.  I don't consider Holiday "one more piece," whereas AD to the Lakers was superteam building while Kawhi was clearly the best (playoff) player in the league at the time.  Even with Paul, the Suns only gave up one pick and a bunch of players they didn't need.

Anyway you're right, I shouldn't have made such a broad generalization.  My point is for the Magic, the players that may be available to "sell the farm" on do not seem worth it.  Again, other than Luka, I can't envision anybody that may become available being worth it.  Can you?

[Relic]

CP3 was thought to have one of the worst contracts in the league at the time. Something like 90 million over 2 years with a player option. 

[Proudfeet]

25 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah, I guess I'm over-qualifying it.  I don't consider Holiday "one more piece," whereas AD to the Lakers was superteam building while Kawhi was clearly the best (playoff) player in the league at the time.  Even with Paul, the Suns only gave up one pick and a bunch of players they didn't need.

Anyway you're right, I shouldn't have made such a broad generalization.  My point is for the Magic, the players that may be available to "sell the farm" on do not seem worth it.  Again, other than Luka, I can't envision anybody that may become available being worth it.  Can you?

Figured we were reading "one more piece" differently, given that you qualified it with "premier" players. Its just that as I mentioned above, the cost for those players are usually result in giving up a key piece or pieces of your existing team. I feel its a bigger change. And to be fair to Holiday, he was a max player, all-star, and the Bucks did give up decent assets if I recall correctly.

I'm not familiar with the Magic, but I wouldn't trade for Luka either unless you're committed to building around him. Luka is kind of like late career LeBron + Harden hybrid, the offense revolves around them and the effort on defense is suspect. And he likely doesn't play well off the ball either. Teams are better off surrounding him with quality role players than putting him in a multiple star set up. 

Based on recent history, I think the only players I would "sell the farm" on in general would be LeBron/KD/Curry if they were five years younger. Giannis/Embiid/Jokic are great, but they are less malleable and not LeBron. Not sure what the Magic need or who are worth keeping to give team specific suggestions.

Anyway, I think its more prudent to build a playoff team and get a solid veteran to fill a gap. Unless you can buy low on the stars, the trade probably necessitates a partial rebuild which is difficult with limited cap space and likely no more picks available. Its why nobody wanted KD in the offseason, the Nets were asking for too much. 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Proudfeet said:

I'm not familiar with the Magic, but I wouldn't trade for Luka either unless you're committed to building around him. Luka is kind of like late career LeBron + Harden hybrid, the offense revolves around them and the effort on defense is suspect.

I was listening to Bill Simmons' podcast with Russillo yesterday and there was a comparison between Luka and Harden.  They're different-ish, but I think it's an apt comparison in terms of usage rate and how they dominate an offense.  That's not necessarily bad!  But yeah, ideally it's not how I'd want to build a team. 

Still, though, if the Magic could get Luka and keep Banchero, they'd be silly not to try to make it happen.  The two of them would instantly create the most imposing offense for the next decade.  It of course depends on who they give up, but the Magic have enough spare parts right now that they could at least retain some of it to surround the two -- you're not trading all five of Wagner, Carter, Fultz, Suggs, and Anthony for Luka.  Probably three - and, unfortunately, certainly Wagner - but there should still be a core to work with there.

[Proudfeet]

As I said, I'm not familiar with the Magic. I just think that in general teams trading for Luka should approach with caution, to be careful that he doesn't marginalise their existing star given how much he dominates the ball.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

My point is for the Magic, the players that may be available to "sell the farm" on do not seem worth it.  

Brown seems like the obvious answer, especially if you can get him on a discount. He's made it clear he will not prioritize resigning with Boston. The question just comes down to the timelines of the young Magic players. 

[DMC]

3 hours ago, Proudfeet said:

I just think that in general teams trading for Luka should approach with caution, to be careful that he doesn't marginalise their existing star given how much he dominates the ball.

Understandable, and I'd agree it depends on who your star is.  Like, say Oklahoma and SGA - that wouldn't be a good fit.  Neither would the Pistons with Cade.  There's too much overlap.  But with Banchero, the two could complement each other very well.  They are ideal stars to pair with each other, at least from an offensive perspective.

Banchero should not be running the offense anyway - even though he technically can and often was when all their guards were injured at the beginning of the season and they started off 5-20.  Since then, some combination of Fultz/Anthony/Wagner have been the primary ballhandlers/running the offense.  Luka is clearly an upgrade, even if all three are pretty-to-very good and promising players.

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Brown seems like the obvious answer, especially if you can get him on a discount.

Yep!  You win the game!  Brown would be ideal -- and maybe wouldn't even require giving up Wagner if he forces his way out this summer before the draft.  The Magic's two draft picks (assuming the Bulls don't get a top-4 pick) this year are already pretty good assets to start a trade proposal.

I'm not too worried about the age.  He's still only 26 (27 in October).  Lillard would be another guy that may become available soon, but that IS too old.  26 is close enough.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

16 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yep!  You win the game!  Brown would be ideal -- and maybe wouldn't even require giving up Wagner if he forces his way out this summer before the draft.  The Magic's two draft picks (assuming the Bulls don't get a top-4 pick) this year are already pretty good assets to start a trade proposal.

I'm not too worried about the age.  He's still only 26 (27 in October).  Lillard would be another guy that may become available soon, but that IS too old.  26 is close enough.

The trick is do you work out a sign and trade or gamble on him possibly not reupping right away if that costs you less upfront? Not really sure what to do there because my guess is the Magic are probably still two years away from having a chance to be a threat. They're kind of where the Wolves were 18 months ago, just with completely different pieces. 

[DMC]

19 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The trick is do you work out a sign and trade or gamble on him possibly not reupping right away if that costs you less upfront?

Yeah, I think you have to work out an extension - you don't wanna give up what it would require to get him just for next year.  I may be getting my sports confused, but doesn't the NBA have a negotiating window during trades for extensions to be worked out?  Either way, it shouldn't affect whatever the Celtics are demanding in terms of a return.  They only have him for next year, so that should impact his trade value regardless.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

23 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah, I think you have to work out an extension - you don't wanna give up what it would require to get him just for next year.  I may be getting my sports confused, but doesn't the NBA have a negotiating window during trades for extensions to be worked out?  Either way, it shouldn't affect whatever the Celtics are demanding in terms of a return.  They only have him for next year, so that should impact his trade value regardless.

Yeah, but they would have to do it at the end of next year for Brown. Essentially you're paying the player more than you'd have to in FA while also giving up assets. 

Honestly the Magic might just be best waiting and developing the team for another year since there's no rush. They finished sixth worst in the league this year, but you could argue every team between them and the Lakers that their roster is as good or better going forward for the next few years if things break the right way. I think the first thing to really figure out is if PB is your centerpiece or your second best player going forward and then trying to fit another star in accordingly (Brown seems like a clear number two, but a really good one).

Beal is also an interesting possibility just because the Magic don't seem to have any bad contracts so eating his salary wouldn't be that bad, at least right away. 

 

[DMC]

27 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yeah, but they would have to do it at the end of next year for Brown. Essentially you're paying the player more than you'd have to in FA while also giving up assets. 

Right.  That's the nature of trades as opposed to waiting for free agency.  Plus, yeah, the NBA designs contracts wherein extending with a team you're already signed to allows for more money than what you'd make as a free agent.  That's been the case for just about as long as I can remember -- when the Magic signed Grant Hill they famously "traded" Ben Wallace and Chucky Atkins to the Pistons for him.  Because of Hill's glass ankle, the Pistons actually won that "trade" that was only made to pay Hill more than he'd get otherwise.

32 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Honestly the Magic might just be best waiting and developing the team for another year since there's no rush.

Sure, that's basically my point.  BUT, I don't want them to miss out at any opportunities.  Banchero seems like a guy you can center your team around, but he's gonna need a cohort.  Is that Wagner?  Maybe.  But if there's something out there that is better they are in a position to strike.  And I do think both Luka and Brown are worthwhile in that regard.

My point is I'm not sure what's out there that's better otherwise.  Lillard is not better, longterm.  Beal is definitely not better - that's kinda why I'm mentioning this because he's been ostensibly available for, like, three years now.

And then even you move to the free agents this year -- wherein the Magic could work out their salaries (namely rescinding Gary Harris) to buy into a max guy...but who?  The best free agents after Harden, Draymond and Irving - all three not happening - are Porzingis. Middleton, and Fred fucking VanVleet.  If I'm Magic GM, I'm not giving any of those dudes a max deal.  Rather, just try to draft wisely with ~ the 6th and 12th picks in June and go with what they got. 

There's also, of course, still the chance they hit on the Wemby sweepstakes.  They have about three percent better odds than the Pelicans when they got Zion.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Sure, that's basically my point.  BUT, I don't want them to miss out at any opportunities.  Banchero seems like a guy you can center your team around, but he's gonna need a cohort.  Is that Wagner?  Maybe.  But if there's something out there that is better they are in a position to strike.  And I do think both Luka and Brown are worthwhile in that regard.

Brown is a different case and will come cheaper in theory, but if you trade for Luka and keep PB, what's left realistically? I think the pairing sounds like a lot of fun though I'm not sure where it leads. I get the desire to accelerate things, but wouldn't you say that's where the Wolves made a mistake? We don't know who else may be available in the near future and waiting isn't the worst thing to do for a short time. It's when the team keeps waiting, and waiting, and waiting that's the problem. I'm interested to see what this current core can do next year and then I believe they'll be in a better position to know what direction to take.

Quote

And then even you move to the free agents this year -- wherein the Magic could work out their salaries (namely rescinding Gary Harris) to buy into a max guy...but who?  The best free agents after Harden, Draymond and Irving - all three not happening - are Porzingis. Middleton, and Fred fucking VanVleet.  If I'm Magic GM, I'm not giving any of those dudes a max deal.  Rather, just try to draft wisely with ~ the 6th and 12th picks in June and go with what they got. 

Who knows, someone always becomes available out of nowhere. I just can't come up with a ton of sexy names right now, but that' might not be what your team needs a year from now.

Quote

There's also, of course, still the chance they hit on the Wemby sweepstakes.  They have about three percent better odds than the Pelicans when they got Zion.

Would Wemby and PB work well together? I was going to joke and say KAT might become available for a trade a year from now, but that also seems like a weird pairing. It might seem like an odd thing to say, but Scoot could actually be the player you want if the Magic can move up on the board.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Brown is a different case and will come cheaper in theory, but if you trade for Luka and keep PB, what's left realistically? I think the pairing sounds like a lot of fun though I'm not sure where it leads. I get the desire to accelerate things, but wouldn't you say that's where the Wolves made a mistake?

Well, like I mentioned, I would expect they at least still have two of their five assets - Wagner, Carter, Fultz, Suggs, Anthony - even after a trade for Luka.  Let's say that's..Suggs and Anthony, the last two on that list.  Well, then the Magic become small ball and you put those two at 1 and 2 with Luka and Paolo at 3 and 4.  Still pretty much works.  Would have to fill out the team with mid-level guys and/or draft picks, but that's how it goes.  I'd still take that.  And maybe pray Isaac finally gets healthy enough to contribute.  Gods know he likes to pray.  Plus, of course, there's still the Bol.

In terms of your second question, that's the point.  The Wolves gave up the farm for Gobert.  I don't want the Magic to do the same for a mediocre/situational player.  Which is, sorry, what he is.  Gobert is not even close to Luka and Jaylen Brown's level, so that's the difference.

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Would Wemby and PB work well together?

I don't know, but I'd really like to find out!  The Magic punted on this the last time the had the chance with Shaq and Webber - traded the latter for Penny.  If they win the lotto, which is only a 9 percent chance, they absolutely should draft and play Wemby and see what happens.  Like, seriously, a frontcourt of Wemby, Paolo, and Wagner?  Good luck people!

As for KAT, I'd put him in that Lillard and Beal category of not worth as much as he'd cost.  Plus, ya know, he literally costs a shitton of money (although I don't really care about that, obviously if the Magic make such a move they'll be over the cap anyway and not like I'm paying the checks).

Scoot would be a great consolation prize, sure.  Kinda be a logjam in terms of smaller guards between Fultz/Suggs/Anthony, but whatever.  So would Brandon Miller or one of the Thompson twins.  We'll see what happens.  Orlando has about a 37 percent chance of winning a top 4 pick.