The Greens were never going to win

[Floki of the Ironborn]

The only reasons that they had a chance was because they got the element of surprise on the blacks, and because of the blacks bickering amongst themselves. The greens had the chance to smuggle away the Iron Throne’s treasury, they secured the capital, and they were quick enough to hide the green relatives long enough to ambush Rhaenyra after she was too stupid to go somewhere safe. GRRM had to bend over backwards to make the war seem like it could have ended any other way other than a black victory. When the North, Vale, and Iron Islands are all in your corner, though, you’re basically done. Even the strongest Green factions had to deal with rebellious black nobles or a random vulture king. Everybody in the North or Vale was entirely on board for Rhaenyra, so there was no way that the blacks could have lost, even if Aegon II had executed Aegon the Younger and Baela. 

[Lord Varys]

Well, that take might be a tidbit too strong but it is correct that Rhaenyra actually did win the war. She just never knew it. The war is decided at Duskendale when she writes letters to Jeyne Arryn and Cregan Stark, and both promise her fresh troops and eventually deliver them.

The Lads may have been willing to bend the knee to Aegon II after Rhaenyra's death, but the Vale (where a new dragon had hatched!) and the North never would. And both armies alone would have been enough crush the forces Aegon II had left.

In that sense, George actually goes pretty far to exonerate Rhaenyra there. She doesn't lose the war as such, and even the riots against her rule are not justified because of her being 'an evil tyrant' but are the result of bare necessity (she lacks cash because of the Green schemes and has to rise the taxes because she needs coin for the war) and the secret plots of her enemies.

Rhaenyra made some crucial mistakes that cost her dearly, but her cause was always the stronger one.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, that take might be a tidbit too strong but it is correct that Rhaenyra actually did win the war. She just never knew it. The war is decided at Duskendale when she writes letters to Jeyne Arryn and Cregan Stark, and both promise her fresh troops and eventually deliver them.

All the more reason why she was an idiot to refuse Torrhen Manderly’s invitation to go to White Harbour. 

[King Maegor the Cool]

Ryaenyra was not a smart ruler at all. Pretty much all the adult Targaryens during the Dance were pieces of shit except for Jace, Luke, Helaena, and Daeron. Cregan marching south and putting the southerners in their place is so cathartic.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

All the more reason why she was an idiot to refuse Torrhen Manderly’s invitation to go to White Harbour. 

Yes, of course. Basically that's the thing that killed her. If she had gone to the Vale or White Harbor she would have returned triumphantly to KL either with Lady Jeyne and Rhaena or at Cregan Stark's side (who she could have made her third husband).

That was her final mistake. The other grievous error was sending Hugh and Ulf together to Tumbleton with no oversight. All her subsequent problems leading to her downfall go back to this betrayal. One has to keep in mind that after Rhaenyra took the city and Criston Cole's army and the host of the Westermen was destroyed, the war was viewed as all but won. The only serious threat to Rhaenyra's reign left was the Hightower army. They really didn't think they needed more troops back then.

If you look at things closely then George really goes out of the way to have her lose support in/around the Crownlands which triggers her retreat to Dragonstone - there is the defection of the Mootons, her angering the Rosbys/Stokeworths with her rulings on their succession, the riots in KL, the lingering resentment in Duskendale because the city was sacked for remaining loyal to her (although that's something she should have actually remedied by then - after Rhaenyra had taken KL the stalwart Blacks suffering on her behalf should have been rewarded for their loyalty) - but in the larger Realm people are still very much loyal to her. And they have the numbers in their side. Which is why her side wins in the end.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, of course. Basically that's the thing that killed her. If she had gone to the Vale or White Harbor she would have returned triumphantly to KL either with Lady Jeyne and Rhaena or at Cregan Stark's side (who she could have made her third husband).

That was her final mistake. The other grievous error was sending Hugh and Ulf together to Tumbleton with no oversight. All her subsequent problems leading to her downfall go back to this betrayal. One has to keep in mind that after Rhaenyra took the city and Criston Cole's army and the host of the Westermen was destroyed, the war was viewed as all but won. The only serious threat to Rhaenyra's reign left was the Hightower army. They really didn't think they needed more troops back then.

If you look at things closely then George really goes out of the way to have her lose support in/around the Crownlands which triggers her retreat to Dragonstone - there is the defection of the Mootons, her angering the Rosbys/Stokeworths with her rulings on their succession, the riots in KL, the lingering resentment in Duskendale because the city was sacked for remaining loyal to her (although that's something she should have actually remedied by then - after Rhaenyra had taken KL the stalwart Blacks suffering on her behalf should have been rewarded for their loyalty) - but in the larger Realm people are still very much loyal to her. And they have the numbers in their side. Which is why her side wins in the end.

I highly doubt Cregan would have married Rhaenyra, but I agree otherwise.

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

I highly doubt Cregan would have married Rhaenyra, but I agree otherwise.

Their pact originally included a marriage arrangement - something they couldn't go through with now. And Rhaenyra was, to her knowledge, down to one son. Once peace was restored she might look for another husband to stabilize her dynasty. Cregan Stark strikes one as the guy she might have considered. And he certainly was ambitious enough to be receptive to such an offer ... or suggesting himself as a potential consort.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Their pact originally included a marriage arrangement - something they couldn't go through with now. And Rhaenyra was, to her knowledge, down to one son. Once peace was restored she might look for another husband to stabilize her dynasty. Cregan Stark strikes one as the guy she might have considered. And he certainly was ambitious enough to be receptive to such an offer ... or suggesting himself as a potential consort.

If he was ambitious, he would have stuck around during the regency instead of going back to the North as soon as Justice was carried out. Cregan is the anti-Ned. He doesn’t dip his toes in the dirty pool, he just applies as much chlorine as he can and then leaves. That’s why he survives his journey south and Ned dies tragically. 

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

If he was ambitious, he would have stuck around during the regency instead of going back to the North as soon as Justice was carried out. Cregan is the anti-Ned. He doesn’t dip his toes in the dirty pool, he just applies as much chlorine as he can and then leaves. That’s why he survives his journey south and Ned dies tragically. 

That strikes me as wrong take on the man. To me, Cregan seems to be an all-or-nothing type. He has ambitions, but he doesn't get what he wants, so he prefers to go back home rather than be part of some committee government.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That strikes me as wrong take on the man. To me, Cregan seems to be an all-or-nothing type. He has ambitions, but he doesn't get what he wants, so he prefers to go back home rather than be part of some committee government.

I agree that he preferred to go back home, but that was because he genuinely didn’t want to stick around. Yes, he had ambitions, but they had nothing to do with his own gain. He could have easily done so and held onto his Hand of the King title. We see what an ambitious Southron later does with said title, especially after the committee government disintegrates. There was ample opportunity for Cregan to seize power for himself. He never wanted to be involved in such intrigue. He wanted to administer Northern justice as best he could, and left because everyone else was tying his hands. His advice to Aegon about distrusting the people in his court was foreshadowing and also entirely accurate.

Edited February 8 by Floki of the Ironborn

[James Steller]

1 hour ago, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said:

Ryaenyra was not a smart ruler at all. Pretty much all the adult Targaryens during the Dance were pieces of shit except for Jace, Luke, Helaena, and Daeron. Cregan marching south and putting the southerners in their place is so cathartic.

Ironically, three fourths of those good Targaryens that you mentioned were not old enough to be considered adults.

[frenin]

2 hours ago, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said:

Ryaenyra was not a smart ruler at all. Pretty much all the adult Targaryens during the Dance were pieces of shit except for Jace, Luke, Helaena, and Daeron. Cregan marching south and putting the southerners in their place is so cathartic.

I will never know why the fandom has such a hard on on Tywin's apprentice  Daeron or Cregan.

 

2 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

The only reasons that they had a chance was because they got the element of surprise on the blacks, and because of the blacks bickering amongst themselves.

Yeah, it's one of those things with Martin writing the ending before anything else, the Dance had to fit the final he had given it but it was pretty meh.

[King Maegor the Cool]

47 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Ironically, three fourths of those good Targaryens that you mentioned were not old enough to be considered adults.

Jace and Daeron were actually fighting so I count them as adults, even though they aren’t logically. Helaena was a married mother, so she is deserved of the respect of an adult in my book.

[King Maegor the Cool]

23 minutes ago, frenin said:

I will never know why the fandom has such a hard on on Tywin's apprentice  Daeron or Cregan.

 

Yeah, it's one of those things with Martin writing the ending before anything else, the Dance had to fit the final he had given it but it was pretty meh.

Cregan gets so much respect because when he marches south he makes the entire south his bitch. He punishes those who needed to be punished, fairly. If he never took charge, half the people involved in the Dance and poisoning Aegon would’ve gotten away with it. He stabilized the realm for Aegon III.

[James Steller]

5 minutes ago, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said:

Jace and Daeron were actually fighting so I count them as adults, even though they aren’t logically. Helaena was a married mother, so she is deserved of the respect of an adult in my book.

She's the only adult in that group. I was talking about Jace, Luke, and Daeron. 

[James Steller]

4 minutes ago, Prince Rhaegar Targareyen said:

He stabilized the realm for Aegon III.

And then Unwin Peake asked someone to hold his ale.

[King Maegor the Cool]

Just now, James Steller said:

She's the only adult in that group. I was talking about Jace, Luke, and Daeron. 

Yeah Luke was a child, but he had more agency then Aegon III and Viserys II 

[King Maegor the Cool]

Just now, James Steller said:

And then Unwin Peake asked someone to hold his ale.

Pretty much. Guys like Unwin Peake would’ve botched the handling of the end of the Dance so badly. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

I agree that he preferred to go back home, but that was because he genuinely didn’t want to stick around. Yes, he had ambitions, but they had nothing to do with his own gain. He could have easily done so and held onto his Hand of the King title. We see what an ambitious Southron later does with said title, especially after the committee government disintegrates. There was ample opportunity for Cregan to seize power for himself. He never wanted to be involved in such intrigue. He wanted to administer Northern justice as best he could, and left because everyone else was tying his hands. His advice to Aegon about distrusting the people in his court was foreshadowing and also entirely accurate.

I think there is some wounded pride there that Cregan's desire to continue the war was effectively brushed aside by the other Blacks. Keep in mind that the man didn't even have the grace to march his army back home. They stayed behind and Aegon III's government had to find places for them - Black Aly and the Tullys helped with that, but it was still a shitty thing to do. Also, of course, insisting on punishing the murderers or alleged murderers of Aegon II is also (somewhat) of a dick move for a Black loyalist - a move that may owe more to the fact that those people forced Cregan to accept the peace deal than with his desire to see justice for Aegon II (who he himself likely dreamed about putting down personally).

And, of course, being the Hand or even sole regent to a king who is no blood or kin of yours - meaning there is an expiration date on your power and you work to the benefit of somebody else who might not want to keep you around when he can make his own decisions - is something different from actually becoming the consort of the queen. Then any children you might father on Rhaenyra are royalty themselves, and they or their children might one day sit on the Iron Throne. Also, of course, with Rhaenyra living and restored to the throne there would be less scheming and bickering at court because she would call the shots.

[Curled Finger]

The Blacks had a great deal in their favor but the Greens thought they could win.  They suffered from lack of foresight.