Alternate History: The Dance of the Dragons is Avoided

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

I was debating a casual fan online today and they were arguing that it was clearly Aemond’s killing of Luke that caused the Dance. I argued instead, that the Dance was already unavoidable the moment Aegon II was crowned. Unless either Aegon or Rhaenyra backed down and went into exile. To be honest at the point either of them would probably be killed.

But what if Rhaenyra had backed down, on the condition of a safe exile with her family? What would’ve happened? I imagine Daemon would be absolutely livid. I also can’t imagine them not taking their dragons with them (another reason I think death would be the only option). 
 

I think if the Blacks went into exile in the Free Cities they may actually be welcomed into a Free City, Volantis. The First and only Emperor of Valyria was in Volantis at the time of the Doom, and had he survived his foray into Valyria, perhaps Volantis would be the seat of a new empire. And then later, the Volanteen wanted the Targaryens to come to Volantis and rule. I wouldn’t be surprised if they all fled to Volantis and became nobility there. With their Dragons I could see a second power forming. And perhaps and even darker future, a cross continental war between two powers with dragons.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

No way would Rhaenyra or Aegon II have left Westeros. The Dance was decided when Viserys married again, plain and simple. 

[Alden Rothack]

2 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

No way would Rhaenyra or Aegon II have left Westeros. The Dance was decided when Viserys married again, plain and simple. 

I disagree, war was inevitable no later than his widowing, there was always going to be war with Rhaenyra as heir

it would have been a lot shorter without Alicents kids but there would have been a war

the only person who could have stopped the war after that point was Rhaenys, if she'd taken the hightowers when she had the chance the war would have been effectively over before it started

[EggBlue]

War was inevitable when Jaeherys decided not to take a straightforward approach toward succession when Aemon died. Had he named Rhaenys his heir instead of Baelon, there wouldn't be any crisis should some future king lack sons. 

[EggBlue]

 

41 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

the only person who could have stopped the war after that point was Rhaenys, if she'd taken the hightowers when she had the chance the war would have been effectively over before it started

Rhaenys never had the chance to kill Hightowers in the books.

[Alden Rothack]

1 minute ago, EggBlue said:

 

Rhaenys never had the chance to kill Hightowers in the books.

Pity

I guess there was never chance to avoid the war then

[KingStoneheart]

I agree that as soon as Aegon the Older was crowned, there was no going back and either Aegon or Rhaenerya had to die. The war was accelerated (but not caused) by Aemon’s killing of Luke.

At the end of the day, Viserys is to blame for having too much trust in Otto and Alicent to actually value his wishes for Rhaenerya to succeed and for remarrying after Aemma. (Or he should have married Laena) and just not bedded her for a decade which in turn gives Rhaenerya a chance to find a suitable husband and have heirs.

In time, marriage pacts would have been made between Rhaenerya’s children and Viserys/Laena’s children.

[Alden Rothack]

12 minutes ago, KingStoneheart said:

I agree that as soon as Aegon the Older was crowned, there was no going back and either Aegon or Rhaenerya had to die. The war was accelerated (but not caused) by Aemon’s killing of Luke.

At the end of the day, Viserys is to blame for having too much trust in Otto and Alicent to actually value his wishes for Rhaenerya to succeed and for remarrying after Aemma. (Or he should have married Laena) and just not bedded her for a decade which in turn gives Rhaenerya a chance to find a suitable husband and have heirs.

In time, marriage pacts would have been made between Rhaenerya’s children and Viserys/Laena’s children.

Viserys marrying Laena was a terrible idea on the practical level and his saying no was the smartest thing he did as king.

Nobody was going to wait ten to twelve years for him to remarry and even then we know there were problems with Laena that would not have disappeared if she married Viserys.

Viserys trusted Otto and in particular returning him to the post after the death of Strong was his second worst decision after marrying Alicent in the first place

[astarkchoice]

If they go to the free cities  theyd prob use the dragons to conquer ...even  volantis or bravos alone (faceless men prob mean bravos is safe to be fair)  would make them a threat to westeros stability.

If they say land in volantis and become its nobility  then maybe add the triarchy etc or even other free cities (bravos prob staying neutral) then added with the sragons you have a  faction the greens have to react to

[Curled Finger]

Rhaenyra was raised to be a queen, not to relinquish her crown to her half brother.  Daemon, an ambitious and royal man, will not bow to people he considers subjects.  This is apostate thinking to royal blood.  Otto Hightower is a grasper reaching far above himself and his station.  Yes he comes from a long noble line of a prosperous and powerful family, but he has no power nor wealth from his family.  He is nothing without his title, Hand of the King.  It is imperative he secure his station within the royal family and business.  It was no more than careful watch and opportunity that Allicent fortuned to marry the King of Westeros.  Otto was a worm who left cancer in a slimy trail of suspicion and division at the heart of his entire family, his future, their futures.  

I wonder if it might have been possible for peace among both Targaryen families before they became green or black had there been none of Otto's scheming and hate planting.  Insecurity did not have to flourish into betrayal, horrible blood betrayal that it became.  Maybe without Otto's machinations at play the family could have been whole and united behind each other and all their claims, as families should be.  

[Arthur Peres]

I was inevitable. Viserys made sure of it. The kids were maiming each other in the yard, the adults were sugesting torture or taking the eyes of the kids. The idiot refused to listen to his hand, ignored the law, the precedent that gave him his crown, ignored his kids, left the hand that was against the sucessor he choose in charge, gave dragons to both sides, gave simbols of power to both sides (Aegon II blackfyre, Rhaenyra Dragonstone).

Even when I play SimCity and want to make chaos reign I don't mess things that badly.

[Ring3r]

I mean, putting incestuous, mentally compromised people in charge and then expecting everyone else to just remain calm and carry on....not exactly a winning strategy.

But, getting back to the Targs, they have a somewhat checkered history.  Civil war was an eventuality, as soon as they lost their dragon-stranglehold.

 

[Lord Varys]

On 2/9/2023 at 6:32 AM, Floki of the Ironborn said:

No way would Rhaenyra or Aegon II have left Westeros. The Dance was decided when Viserys married again, plain and simple. 

Not then. The marriage could have remained childless, it could have been only daughters, the new wife could have died in childbirth, having Rhaenyra raise her half-siblings as a foster mother, the children could have gotten along, there could have been marriages among them to unite the branches, etc.

One big thing both George and HotD fail to address is why the hell Alicent and Otto never pushed for Rhaenyra to marry a Hightower. That could have avoided the war. Rhaenyra could have married one of Alicent's brothers or, perhaps even better, (the future) Lord Ormund Hightower of Oldtown.

On 2/9/2023 at 10:11 AM, EggBlue said:

War was inevitable when Jaeherys decided not to take a straightforward approach toward succession when Aemon died. Had he named Rhaenys his heir instead of Baelon, there wouldn't be any crisis should some future king lack sons. 

But that wouldn't have ensured that Viserys and Daemon (or their sons) wouldn't challenge the reign of a Queen Rhaenys or her successors. In fact, we don't even know if Prince Baelon would have accepted a Queen Rhaenys after the death of his elder brother Aemon. He was most definitely loyal to him ... but we have no clue how he felt about his niece.

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Not then. The marriage could have remained childless, it could have been only daughters, the new wife could have died in childbirth, having Rhaenyra raise her half-siblings as a foster mother, the children could have gotten along, there could have been marriages among them to unite the branches, etc.

One big thing both George and HotD fail to address is why the hell Alicent and Otto never pushed for Rhaenyra to marry a Hightower. That could have avoided the war. Rhaenyra could have married one of Alicent's brothers or, perhaps even better, (the future) Lord Ormund Hightower of Oldtown.

But that wouldn't have ensured that Viserys and Daemon (or their sons) wouldn't challenge the reign of a Queen Rhaenys or her successors. In fact, we don't even know if Prince Baelon would have accepted a Queen Rhaenys after the death of his elder brother Aemon. He was most definitely loyal to him ... but we have no clue how he felt about his niece.

The only reason I can come up with is kinda what the show implies. It’s that Otto is just a raging misogynist, and didn’t want a ruling Queen

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Lord Edmure of Riverrun said:

The only reason I can come up with is kinda what the show implies. It’s that Otto is just a raging misogynist, and didn’t want a ruling Queen

In the show Otto is himself pushed to go with Aegon by his brother. If Rhaenyra had married a son of Otto's or the son of his brother all should have been well.

Otto does constantly repeat the narrative that Westeros won't accept a female monarch - but that is just his narrative. He believes or want to believe this - and he also wants Alicent to believe it.

Neither show nor book ever considering a match between Rhaenyra and a Hightower when many other matches are on the table is pretty odd. Especially since Otto has multiple sons and his brother seems to have had at least two.

[EggBlue]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But that wouldn't have ensured that Viserys and Daemon (or their sons) wouldn't challenge the reign of a Queen Rhaenys or her successors. In fact, we don't even know if Prince Baelon would have accepted a Queen Rhaenys after the death of his elder brother Aemon. He was most definitely loyal to him ... but we have no clue how he felt about his niece.

there is always the chance that other branches challenge the succession, especially in this sexist society. but the difference is there wouldn't have been a precedent for passing over women in favor of uncles, so that way Rhaenys's reign would have been far better accepted rather than, say, Rhaenyra's or if Rhaenys was chosen in 101.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

there is always the chance that other branches challenge the succession, especially in this sexist society. but the difference is there wouldn't have been a precedent for passing over women in favor of uncles, so that way Rhaenys's reign would have been far better accepted rather than, say, Rhaenyra's or if Rhaenys was chosen in 101.

Not necessarily, since Jaehaerys and Aegon I himself also set precedents against female inheritance. Aegon was Lord of Dragonstone instead of the elder Visenya, and Jaehaerys took the throne over both his niece and his elder sister. Aerea even had been named heir by King Maegor.

[Many-Faced Votary]

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Not necessarily, since Jaehaerys and Aegon I himself also set precedents against female inheritance. Aegon was Lord of Dragonstone instead of the elder Visenya, and Jaehaerys took the throne over both his niece and his elder sister. Aerea even had been named heir by King Maegor.

Aegon and his sisters adapted to the Andal-dominated culture of the Seven Kingdoms. It is the likely reason he was styled Lord of Dragonstone and then King, but even then, he ruled as equals with Visenya and Rhaenys, who even had the symbolic power of sitting the Iron Throne (which Alysanne did not). 

Jaehaerys took the throne following the brutal reign of a widely despised usurper, and that was clearly a special circumstance that should not have set a precedent, nor would it have had he simply named his granddaughter Rhaenys as heir and/or allowed Alysanne to truly co-rule.

[Lord Varys]

20 minutes ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

Aegon and his sisters adapted to the Andal-dominated culture of the Seven Kingdoms. It is the likely reason he was styled Lord of Dragonstone and then King, but even then, he ruled as equals with Visenya and Rhaenys, who even had the symbolic power of sitting the Iron Throne (which Alysanne did not).

From what we know the Dragonstonian Targaryens also styled their boss 'Lord of Dragonstone' although one imagines that the original Valyrian title of Aenar and his immediate successors was differently and eventually translated in this manner into the Common Tongue.

Visenya and Rhaenys were the co-conquerors of the Seven Kingdoms and thus shared in his rule - but he was the one charge both before and after the Conquest.

20 minutes ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

Jaehaerys took the throne following the brutal reign of a widely despised usurper, and that was clearly a special circumstance that should not have set a precedent, nor would it have had he simply named his granddaughter Rhaenys as heir and/or allowed Alysanne to truly co-rule.

But it did. I mean, Gyldayn cites both Aegon I as Lord of Dragonstone instead of Visenya as well Rhaena being passed over for Jaehaerys when he discusses Jaehaerys' decision to name Baelon his heir in 92 AC. That Aerea is not specifically mentioned there as well likely goes back to the fact that this section was written before George fleshed out the reigns of Aenys and Maegor.

The decision for Baelon in 92 AC was very popular with court and Realm alike. There were very few dissenters.

Alysanne actually seems to have been content with not properly sharing in Jaehaerys' rule. And while she clearly was the smarter one, she may have also been too soft to be a strong monarch in her own right. Rhaena is not wrong when she points out the Jaehaerys that she is Visenya while Alysanne is Rhaenys. Rhaena was clearly feared even by the great lords throughout the Realm - as Rogar Baratheon's decision to not remarry shows. Alysanne didn't even command enough respect with the Archmaesters to get them to accept female students.

[EggBlue]

33 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

From what we know the Dragonstonian Targaryens also styled their boss 'Lord of Dragonstone' although one imagines that the original Valyrian title of Aenar and his immediate successors was differently and eventually translated in this manner into the Common Tongue.

from what we know of pre-conquest Targs, the eldest brother married the eldest sister. it is not clear how the power structure within the island and Targaryen household worked. considering Aegon's shared rule with his sisters despite adapting Andal customs,  it's quite reasonable to think the lord and lady of Dragonstone shared power equally. it's most likely that the nobles in the mainland saw the lord as the real power due to the projection of their own culture . we've seen the same thing in book 1 when Joffrey Baratheon calls for Doran and his eldest son to swear fealty despite the fact that according to AGOT's appendix Arianne was Doran's heir. 

33 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Visenya and Rhaenys were the co-conquerors of the Seven Kingdoms and thus shared in his rule - but he was the one charge both before and after the Conquest.

But it did. I mean, Gyldayn cites both Aegon I as Lord of Dragonstone instead of Visenya

this again goes back to the Arianne example. 

33 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

as well Rhaena being passed over for Jaehaerys when he discusses Jaehaerys' decision to name Baelon his heir in 92 AC. That Aerea is not specifically mentioned there as well likely goes back to the fact that this section was written before George fleshed out the reigns of Aenys and Maegor.

of course, he does. but as Many-Faced Votary said, passing over Rhaena and Aera was a unique situation. besides, Rogar Baratheon's influence on Jaeherys's coronation should not be dismissed. Rogar , as he later showed, wanted his own monarch. obviously, the boy he had under his roof was the better candidate than a woman he did not know or a child he did not have access to. seems to me Jaeherys' gender only became an asset for Rogar to satisfy Andal nobles and do what was best for him. 

33 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The decision for Baelon in 92 AC was very popular with court and Realm alike. There were very few dissenters.

of course it was. they were Andals , Baelon was an adult and he was popular. that is not to say Jaeherys couldn't just as easily name Rhaenys his heir . she would have been accepted because there was no precedent against her position ( instead of Aera who again was in a unique situation) . also, having Corlys, another adult popular and powerful man, by her side and the Baratheon support would have helped her position better . 

33 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Alysanne actually seems to have been content with not properly sharing in Jaehaerys' rule. And while she clearly was the smarter one, she may have also been too soft to be a strong monarch in her own right. Rhaena is not wrong when she points out the Jaehaerys that she is Visenya while Alysanne is Rhaenys. Rhaena was clearly feared even by the great lords throughout the Realm - as Rogar Baratheon's decision to not remarry shows. Alysanne didn't even command enough respect with the Archmaesters to get them to accept female students.

yes, but it's not about what Alyssane preferred. it's about what Jaeherys and Alyssane could pull off. Jaeherys and Alyssane seem to be one of the more Westerosi-conventional Targaryens (unless it comes to incest!) . and one would assume living in Baratehon household between the ages of 10-14 (for Alyssane , 8-12) without any influence from Targaryens could be an explanation. notably, although Rhaena doesn't seem to like Queenship and whatever it entails, she is still the one to believe she or at least her daughter should have been queen instead of Jaeherys ; and she is the only one among her siblings who was raised by Aegon and Aenys.