Jump to content

Ukraine: Slava Ukraini!!!


Ser Scot A Ellison
 Share

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Wow… in the last and a half months the Russians have lost nearly half the numbers they lost in the entirety of 2022:

It's virtually certain most Russians do not grasp the degree to which their army is being destroyed, and what a pitiful state it will be in if this continues another 6-12 months.  Russia is betting that with their superior resources and population that eventually they can grind down the Ukrainian military (not this year, but possibly in 2024 or 25).  It remains to be seen whether Russia really has the staying power it thinks that it does, because a lot of military analysts think that answer is no.  At the very least, Russia does not have another year's worth of reserves of IFVs, APCs and tanks at current loss rates.

Obviously, this is all contingent on China not getting involved.  If they want to start shipping huge quantities of expensive military tech to Russia to see how to performs against NATO weapons, that would change things dramatically.  But one key difference is that unlike Russia, China's military is comparatively new, it doesn't have nearly the same quantity of equipment from the 80s that is obsolete, but nonetheless usable. If it is getting involved, they'll soon need to ship the actually good equipment from the past two decades, which are a great deal more expensive. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point, I am starting to think that Putin will call for a spring mobilization of another 300,000 troops - only to have it flop completely. 

As of late, I keep coming across vids and tweets and short articles featuring everything from fake body armor to a lack of ammunition and rations for the last draft. Add in known issues such as 80-90% of their stored tanks and trucks being basically scrap metal, and I don't see any bright spots for Russia here.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

At this point, I am starting to think that Putin will call for a spring mobilization of another 300,000 troops - only to have it flop completely.

You cannot fight a war with 300k civilians.  You need to train and equip them, and Russia struggled (badly) with doing so the last round.  Guys were getting 1990s body armor (note, body armor does not work when it is 20+ years old), and no boots.  The next round of mobilization will be even worse. 

These troops will not have the training or the equipment that allow them to fight light modern infanty.  Instead, they are basically 1960s infantry with a smattering of newer stuff.  When Ukraine attacks, it will be at night, and most of the Russian troops don't have night vision.  It will be scouted by drones, which Russia does not have nearly enough of.  They will have comms systems to coordinate between different units, which these Russian units lack the training to do. 

In short, even setting aside running out of things like tanks, IFVs, missiles and artillery shells, Russia just doesn't have enough of the things they need to make a 300k mobilization useful.  Huge quantities of barely trained troops have limited value on the modern battlefield.  They will mostly go to the front and die. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As far as I can tell, the statistics for Russia's population are about as follows:

  • Males 15-19: 3.8 million
  • Males 20-24: 3.4
  • Males 25-29: 4.1
  • Males 30-34: 6.0
  • Males 35-39: 6.2
  • Males 40-44: 5.4
  • Males 45-49: 4.8
  • Males 50-54: 4.2
  • Males: 55-59: 4.2

So in the "fighting age" area, Russia does have potentially quite a large reserve to draw upon beyond the ~250,000 killed and injured and ~1 million who have left the country since the start of 2022. Also, there are estimates of around 6.2 million Russian citizens living outside Russia itself, most of whom have not returned home to fight (although only ~3-3.5 million would be men, based on the population gender split). However, that's completely ignoring what all those other people are doing, working in the energy sector, factories, and doing the hard work of keeping the country's infrastructure going.

Russia can put a lot more warm bodies in the field, if they are willing to risk total economic ruin, but all that will do really is just give them more problems in arming and equipping them. Bearing in mind that some Russian soldiers are going into battle armed only with spades right now.

Edited by Werthead
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Russia is not going to lose this war because they run out of men to put in uniform.  It is almost impossible to come up with a scenario where that happens.  They will run out of guns/ammo to equip them with or trucks to bring them supplies or their economy will collapse all before they run out of men. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

You’re kidding me?

Probably not. The equipment situation for Russian 'troops' is horrendous. I have seen multiple accounts of soldiers being issued a mere two bullets.

Another attempted mobilization, especially given flight/corruption issues, has a strong possibility of complete economic collapse for Russia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

You’re kidding me?

No, that really happened, although it was a relatively small scale incident.  Some group (Wagner?) attempted to breach the Ukrainian lines by claiming to surrender and then attacking with spades when they got close.  A lot of people died (including a fair few Ukrainians).

 
Yet another war crime. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its also worth noting that while Russia is a large, populous country, Ukraine is hardly tiny with about 1/3 the population and can commit essentially their whole military to the effort.  They also have plenty of territory to slowly retreat back into (reference the tactics of virtually every war Russia won).   Every meter they cede is a meter closer to their supply lines and a meter further away from the Russian supply lines.  Moreover, while the Ukraine military will be becoming more experienced and better equipped over time, the Russian military is getting worse equipped and less experienced over time (due to integration of draftees and tactics that dont emphasize the survivability of troops.  While the fog of war is thick and anything can happen, I would think a Russian army commander would be hard pressed to believe that 'only' a 3:1 advantage in manpower as pointing towards a favorable outcome.

Edited by horangi
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Scot, 600-700 killed is about average for this winter offensive.  Russia wants to keep up pressure on Ukraine and are willing to sacrifice the lives of a great many soldiers to do it.

On Friday a Ukrainian General gave a press conference and said that the reason Ukraine was still holding onto Bakhmut (rather than retreating to more defensible lines) was because Russia was attacking there with both Wagner and "the remnants of its professional army", and that Ukraine wants to continue destroying those forces.  I like that confidence, I hope he's right.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Russia has lost more than 2000 men in three days:

And nearly 160.000 dead... numbers that sound insane, but the way Wagner and the Russian army tore themselves apart in their inane competition of who can drown Bakhmut first in bodies... yeah, it sounds believable if only for how insanely the Russians have been throwing lives away these weeks with absolutely nothing to show Putin for it.

Also I'm hearing more and more rumoring from milbloggers that this week might get interesting, what with Ukraine supposedly drawing together troops near the front. Crossing fingers here...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Toth said:

Also I'm hearing more and more rumoring from milbloggers that this week might get interesting, what with Ukraine supposedly drawing together troops near the front. Crossing fingers here...

The Ukrainians have made a suspicious amount of statements that their offensive is at least 2 months away.  It serves little purpose to make statements like that, and makes me wonder if they might be planning something in the next week or two. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Maithanet said:

The Ukrainians have made a suspicious amount of statements that their offensive is at least 2 months away.  It serves little purpose to make statements like that, and makes me wonder if they might be planning something in the next week or two. 

That was my line of thinking as well. Not quite waiting until Russia has either 'given up' or actually changed the frontlines to dig in, but instead hitting them as they are still in the process of attacking and thus forcing their inexperienced, ill supplied and demoralized conscripts to switch from attack to defense while under fire... which I don't see this Russian army pull off without some more spectacular disasters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's been a steady uptick of Ukrainian artillery and HIMARS bombardments of the Russian lines at Volnovakha and Tokmak. Volnovakha is due north of Melitopol, a Ukrainian attack there could cut south to the coast and east and north-east to threaten to encircle Donetsk City. That gives the Ukrainians a lot of axes of attack, but it's also very easy for Russia to reinforce. My gut feeling is that is either a feint, or they will genuinely try to retake the town and then create a new fulcrum to absorb Russian counterattacks.

There has also been an increase in pressure on Tokmak, much further west, north-east of Melitopol. Retaking Melitopol is a strategically far more important move. It allows the Ukrainian regular military to hook up with the partisans who've been causing havoc in that area for months now, and it puts pressure on the entire south-western sector of the front. Reinforcing the Dnipro is a complete waste of time if the enemy then attacks into your rear from the east instead. If the Ukrainians can cross the Dnipro in force (perhaps using the Kilburn Peninsula to bypass the frontal assault), they can pincer the Russian lines north of Crimea and collapse them. Even if that's too bold, from around Melitopol they can collapse the Kerch Strait Bridge at will (if they get GLSDB, they'd be able to do that immediately).

A Ukrainian counter-attack right now would also threaten to disrupt the Bakhmut operation and force Russia to divert reinforcements from around Bakhmut to the newly-threatened area, or just allow that area to fall. Russia could take Bakhmut but lose a far more essential sector elsewhere. Losing Melitopol would be an absolute disaster for them, it's a key lynchpin for the approaches to Crimea.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Werthead said:

A Ukrainian counter-attack right now would also threaten to disrupt the Bakhmut operation and force Russia to divert reinforcements from around Bakhmut to the newly-threatened area, or just allow that area to fall. Russia could take Bakhmut but lose a far more essential sector elsewhere. Losing Melitopol would be an absolute disaster for them, it's a key lynchpin for the approaches to Crimea.

If Melitopol (rather than Bakhmut) becomes the key focal point of fighting, that will also be harder for the Russians to reinforce.  Not as bad as defending Kherson city, but the logistical network of rail lines is definitely worse than in the Donbas.  It is unclear how much ammo the Russians could bring forward quickly if the fighting gets real heavy. 

Edited by Maithanet
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mmh, scrolling through r/CombatFootage, the most recent videos involve Ukrainian armored forces rolling up exposed Russian trenches when all similar videos these months had been Ukrainians defending trenches against Russians afoot, firefights in bombed out Bakhmut or (much more commonly) drones dropping grenades in trenches. That I'm seeing armored vehicles again I take as a sign that things are getting more mobile again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Somewhat unrelated to the above - ISW believes that the Bakhmut push is basically a way to weaken Wagner significantly and is essentially punishing them for prior garbage in May:

Quote

 

Prigozhin likely anticipated that Ukrainian forces would entirely withdraw from Bakhmut out of fear of imminent encirclement and hoped that his commitment of Wagner’s elite forces would be sufficient to generate that effect. Prigozhin even offered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to allow Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Bakhmut in two days on March 3.[8] Limited information about the Prigozhin’s pleas likely indicates that the Russian military command is intent on expending Wagner forces within the city. Spokesperson of the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Serhiy Cherevaty also noted on March 11 that Ukrainian forces may be able to severely degrade Wagner and have already thinned out Wagner’s second prisoner formation over the winter.[9] Ukrainian servicemen noted in a social media video from March 12 that they are holding positions in Bakhmut waiting for Russians to “shoot each other.”[10] Russian military leadership may be allowing the Wagner Group to take high casualties in Bakhmut to simultaneously erode Prigozhin’s leverage while capturing the city at the expense of Wagner troops. 

The Russian military leadership is likely attempting to avenge itself on Prigozhin for a conflict that he initiated in May 2022. ISW assessed on January 22 and February 26 that the Kremlin likely lent Prigozhin its support when Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to replenish his forces with volunteer recruits to avoid declaring highly unpopular mobilization.[11] Prigozhin likely convinced Putin that he would be able to seize Bakhmut if given access to the Russian MoD’s ammunition stocks and allowed to expand his existing ultranationalist recruitment campaigns to include regular Russians and prisoners.[12] Putin granted Prigozhin access to those resources as he had likely become increasingly disillusioned with the Russian military command that had failed to capture Kyiv and effectively wasted reserves without achieving a tangible result. Putin likely perceived the Russian military command’s appeals for mobilization as a threat to the stability of his regime and placed his confidence in Prigozhin whose forces had already helped seize Popasna, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast.[13] Putin’s decision to side with Prigozhin likely angered Shoigu and Gerasimov, who were then tasked with sharing limited equipment and ammunition with Wagner mercenaries.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...