Maithanet Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Reuters story where they tracked down some Wagner convict turned mercenaries to interview them. Quote Reuters managed to make contact with 11 of these men [who appeared in photos with Prigozhin]. Five agreed to be interviewed by phone and messaging app. What follows is the most detailed insider account yet of Wagner's convict army: the fighters’ recruitment and training, the combat they saw in Ukraine, and their uncertain future in a Russia turned upside down by war with its neighbour. Overall, this group has a very positive view of Wagner. That isn't surprising, since it probably isn't safe to voice anti-Wagner or anti-war sentiment to reporters. Also, convicts killed in Ukraine aren't available to give interviews. These guys are the success stories of the convicts - the guys who survived and got out. A few highlights include: - They were given 2-3 weeks of "intense" training. For comparison, basic training in the US/UK takes 22 weeks. Most of the volunteers had some military experience previously, although mostly non-combat. - They all volunteered to sign up with Wagner primarily to clear their records, as well as out of a genuine desire to fight in the war. The article did not mention whether the men recieved thier promised pay from Wagner (many other articles I've read indicate the answer is no). - Four of the five men were injured in their time in Wagner, and the time spent recovering in the hospital was counted towards their 6 month stint. - All of the men were either planning or considering reenlisting with Wagner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 17, 2023 Author Share Posted March 17, 2023 It’s a symbolic act but the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. Paging @sologdin… https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/17/icc-issues-arrest-warrant-for-russias-putin-over-ukraine-crimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: It’s a symbolic act but the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. Paging @sologdin… https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/17/icc-issues-arrest-warrant-for-russias-putin-over-ukraine-crimes It's symbolic and meaningless right, but it creates a vague problem if the war ends and certain states are keen to rush back to doing business with Russia. Something like 70% of the countries in the world are signed up to the ICC and if Putin visits any of them, they are (theoretically) legally bound to arrest him. Of course, it's very easily avoided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 Continued Ukrainian artillery strikes between Tokmak and Polohy, and possibly some recon operations going on. Interesting approach, opening up advance lines either SW to Melitopol and SE to Mariupol. Apparently unseasonably dry weather in that area for the last few weeks, and the ground has dried up considerably, opening the possibility of armoured assaults. Russian assaults ongoing at Bakhmut and Avdiyivka (which I'm pretty sure the Russians have reported capturing around fifteen times now, and each time it goes back to being contested a few days later) just outside Donetsk City, but the overall tempo and intensity of the assaults seems to be dying down. Some Russian rumblings of a hardcore "shadow mobilisation" underway with very generous terms being offered to military veterans to go back to Ukraine for another term of duty, but the numbers signing up don't seem to be very large. Some speculation that Russia may have to undertake another round of public mobilisation, which they really don't want to do after the chaos last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Werthead said: Russian assaults ongoing at Bakhmut and Avdiyivka (which I'm pretty sure the Russians have reported capturing around fifteen times now, and each time it goes back to being contested a few days later) just outside Donetsk City, but the overall tempo and intensity of the assaults seems to be dying down. Some Russian rumblings of a hardcore "shadow mobilisation" underway with very generous terms being offered to military veterans to go back to Ukraine for another term of duty, but the numbers signing up don't seem to be very large. Some speculation that Russia may have to undertake another round of public mobilisation, which they really don't want to do after the chaos last time. Russia officially is looking for an additional 400k volunteers. Given that they already asked for volunteers several times last year, followed by mobilization, it is extremely unlikely there are a lot of men interested in volunteering that have not already done so. In addition, 400k is a huge number, that is almost 10% of the remaining military age male population in all of Russia. Unless there is significant coercion involved, hard to imagine they'll get even a quarter of that number. There are more and more signs that the Russian military machine is creaking and groaning under the stress of this war. I expect we're going to see T-55s by summer. That was the best Soviet battle tank in 1955-61, and remained in production as a cheaper alternative to newer tanks (like T-62 and T-72) until 1981. It is also the most widely produced tank in history, with approximately 100k produced across several different countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 18, 2023 Author Share Posted March 18, 2023 Is the rate of Russian KIA increasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 Bakhmut... If you lose nearly 1.000 soldiers a day there, that adds up. If Bakhmut were to get resolved one way or another (Ukrainian or Russian retreat) that would lower the trajectory. Having that said, Bakhmut must really be a place as close to hell as possible right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 Okay...so Russia did their 300,000 man conscription/mobilization last year on top of however many troops they'd already committed. That number is probably way off, but...go with it. Now, if they go for a 400,000 man conscription/mobilization this year...that'll be 700,000 total. Thought I read somewhere that Russia's population was on the order of 140,000,000. Overall, that works out to 1 person in 200 of the population overall, or about 1 male in 100. For Russian troops, being sent to Ukraine is pretty much a death sentence. That is going to make for a *lot* of unhappy people back home. Factor in a million or so people headed for the border or into hiding to avoid being drafted...this is a recipe for serious internal trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 Thinker, the Russian population of military age men (basically 18-44) is something like 20 million. So the losses they've already suffered are nearly 1 in 100 killed in Ukraine, and maybe another 2 percent wounded. And the war is only one year old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Apparently Wagner has put a €15 million bounty on the head of the Italian defence minister for suggesting that Wagner might be behind an increase in cross-Mediterranean migration to Italy this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 19, 2023 Author Share Posted March 19, 2023 42 minutes ago, Werthead said: Apparently Wagner has put a €15 million bounty on the head of the Italian defence minister for suggesting that Wagner might be behind an increase in cross-Mediterranean migration to Italy this year. If Wagner is doing shit like that why hasn’t the EU declared Wagner a terrorist organization? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Tbf. The Italian defence minister was talking out of his ass. Human trafickers do not Russian help to put refugees on a boat. So that was a fairly obvious attempt by a far right goverment to link refugees to the Russians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 19, 2023 Author Share Posted March 19, 2023 19 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: Tbf. The Italian defence minister was talking out of his ass. Human trafickers do not Russian help to put refugees on a boat. So that was a fairly obvious attempt by a far right goverment to link refugees to the Russians. Assuming the Italian Defense Minister was talking out of his ass… how would that excuse or justify Wagner’s bounty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Assuming the Italian Defense Minister was talking out of his ass… how would that excuse or justify Wagner’s bounty? It doesn't, just wanted to provide some context to that crazy remark. I find the vilification of refugees sickening. This was the latest attempt. I mean you are clever, you can see where they were going with that, the implications of that remark. Those activists, who campaign for refugee rights, or even worse save people from drowning in the mediterranean sea are just helping Putin. It's absolutely disgusting. And that guy should be put in a dinghy in the middle of the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 19, 2023 Author Share Posted March 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: I find the vilification of refugees sickening. This was the latest attempt. I mean you are clever, you can see where they were going with that, the implications of that remark. Those activists, who campaign for refugee rights, or even worse save people from drowning in the mediterranean sea are just helping Putin. I suspected that. And I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 This afternoon I have seen multiple reports from Russian and pro-Russian Ukrainians claiming that it was not Putin, but his "avatar" (body double) who visit Crimea and Mariopul, which is interesting. The Economist has an excellent article on the coming vassalage of Russia to China, even after Putin is gone. https://www.economist.com/russias-reliance-on-china-will-persist-even-after-vladimir-putin-is-gone-says-alexander-gabuev?utm_medium=social-media.content.np&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial-social&utm_content=discovery.content Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 The Russian offensive is running out of steam. She also points out that Russia is currently combining some of its best units together to reconstitute losses. Since these units have never worked together, they will likely be less effective than their previous units were. Going further, this offensive was largely fueled by the 300k troops conscripted in fall of 2022. That group has now been fully deployed, to little effect. There is every reason think that further rounds of mobilization will be equally ineffective at powering a Russian offensive. The Russians have little opportunity for further advances this year. In other news President Xi is visiting Putin today. Coincidentally, 9 Chinese nationals were killed by armed gunmen in the Central African Republic today. Wagner is believed to be responsible, although I'm sure Putin/Prigozhin will deny it. With friends like these, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matrim Fox Cauthon Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 24 minutes ago, Maithanet said: The Russian offensive is running out of steam. She also points out that Russia is currently combining some of its best units together to reconstitute losses. Since these units have never worked together, they will likely be less effective than their previous units were. Going further, this offensive was largely fueled by the 300k troops conscripted in fall of 2022. That group has now been fully deployed, to little effect. There is every reason think that further rounds of mobilization will be equally ineffective at powering a Russian offensive. The Russians have little opportunity for further advances this year. But will Ukraine break their backs and put a dent in their lines when it's their turn? That's the question. These European states will want a show of sucess for their investment. 24 minutes ago, Maithanet said: In other news President Xi is visiting Putin today. Coincidentally, 9 Chinese nationals were killed by armed gunmen in the Central African Republic today. Wagner is believed to be responsible, although I'm sure Putin/Prigozhin will deny it. With friends like these, eh? A small price to pay for the anti-Western World Order Alliance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said: But will Ukraine break their backs and put a dent in their lines when it's their turn? That's the question. These European states will want a show of sucess for their investment. We will see. But Russia has exhausted a huge amount of military material in order to take about 0.2% of Ukrainian territory. Material that will not be available when and where the Ukrainians decide to attack next. Quote A small price to pay for the anti-Western World Order Alliance. China would like Russia to win this war, but I'm very doubtful they'll stick their necks out to make it happen. And no country likes to give the impression that killing your citizens abroad is something they'll tolerate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceChampion Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 Is it really a Spring Offensive if it's run out of steam before the first day of Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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