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Ukraine: Slava Ukraini!!!


Ser Scot A Ellison

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The current EU summit is kinda interesting for several reasons, but the connected to Ukraine is their plan pledge to supply Ukraine with ammo. They are atm realizing, that Ukraine needs more ammo than is being produced in Europe, and they are now trying to figure out how and from where they are getting ammo Ukraine needs, if there's some hidden stash somewhere in their arsenals that they can send over.

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2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

The current EU summit is kinda interesting for several reasons, but the connected to Ukraine is their plan pledge to supply Ukraine with ammo. They are atm realizing, that Ukraine needs more ammo than is being produced in Europe, and they are now trying to figure out how and from where they are getting ammo Ukraine needs, if there's some hidden stash somewhere in their arsenals that they can send over.

If I am a European guy with access to metal stock and a lathe anywhere in my machine shop, I suspect that I am calling up my local elected official and asking how to become a qualified government supplier right about now.

"Hey, Luigi!  How big is 105MM?  Four inches and a bit?  Do we still have that five-inch chuck lying around somewhere?  Yes?  OK, let me get Herr Schmitt on the phone."

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7 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

If I am a European guy with access to metal stock and a lathe anywhere in my machine shop, I suspect that I am calling up my local elected official and asking how to become a qualified government supplier right about now.

"Hey, Luigi!  How big is 105MM?  Four inches and a bit?  Do we still have that five-inch chuck lying around somewhere?  Yes?  OK, let me get Herr Schmitt on the phone."

So this imagined European machinist needs to convert the caliber size that is given in mm into inches? And then back into mm for his actual lathes that are sized and/or programmed in metric units to begin with? :P 

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57 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

So this imagined European machinist needs to convert the caliber size that is given in mm into inches? And then back into mm for his actual lathes that are sized and/or programmed in metric units to begin with? :P 

Come on, man, it is an old lathe, it has sat unused in a corner for years, of course it uses Imperial measurements!  CPT machines forever!

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Pure speculation, but I'm guessing to get a military manufacturing contract in Europe your machinery might have to be metric.

105mm = 4.133858267716535 inches or 4 and 26771653543307/200000000000000 inches.

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The metric system is a plot invented by snooty Europeans to make smart Amrcns fell dum.

I see you over there. With your fancy beers and public transits... I know your game :uhoh:

"Anything wider than a short man's handspan, or a tall woman's shoe size, is inherently communist." - Pappy, who lived to be over forty years old! 

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On 3/24/2023 at 12:08 AM, The Anti-Targ said:

Pure speculation, but I'm guessing to get a military manufacturing contract in Europe your machinery might have to be metric.

105mm = 4.133858267716535 inches or 4 and 26771653543307/200000000000000 inches.

Someone start smuggling those imperial measurement based tools to Muscovy. Don't they have some left from that Mars lander?

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Just to add to the Meme war: I just found that Youtuber Squire, whom I know mostly for his incredibly British War Thunder skits, has made a skit about the Ukraine war with lots of jokes well known to anyone here about the state of the Russian army:

 

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Ukrainian and British intelligence seem to be agreeing that the Russian efforts to complete the encirclement of Bakhmut seem to be running out of steam. The number of fires has dropped significantly, Ukrainian counter-fire has increased and the movement of Russian troops into the region has halted. In fact, there are signs that the Russians are now rapidly pulling units out of Bakhmut and moving them to other fronts. There is a possibility that Russia will launch limited, minor attacks on a multitude of fronts to try to disrupt any major Ukrainian counter-offensive effort.

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Lack of ammunition is always relative.  Whatever amount of ammunition that Ukraine has saved up, if they had 20% more, the offensive would be easier and that would save Ukrainian lives.  I do not blame Zelensky for lobbying as hard as he can for more. 

But at the same time, you fight with the army you have, not the one you wish you had.  The offensive will go forward when they feel it had the best chance of success.

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Possibly true, possibly psyops. The Ukrainians have mastered the art of sending out mixed messages during this war, to galvanise and speed up support and confuse the hell out of the Russians. IIRC, there was indications before the autumn counter-offensive last year that the Ukrainians could not advance because they didn't have enough ammo and days later they were launching an all-out attack.

I do think there are genuine ammo concerns with how fast Ukraine is consuming ammo and allies have been slow to get production of shells and bullets up to speed, but there have been no indications that this problem is imminent. The main concern I think was for this autumn, when a perceived gap could open up between Ukraine's consumption rates and the expected increases, particularly in American shell and HIMARS ammo production which is expected to kick into full gear in early 2024.

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37 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I do think there are genuine ammo concerns with how fast Ukraine is consuming ammo and allies have been slow to get production of shells and bullets up to speed, but there have been no indications that this problem is imminent. The main concern I think was for this autumn, when a perceived gap could open up between Ukraine's consumption rates and the expected increases, particularly in American shell and HIMARS ammo production which is expected to kick into full gear in early 2024.

Western estimates from pre-invasion of how much ammo is needed for a modern war seem like they were dramatically off. I saw an article the other day that Pentagon analysts now estimate that in an all-out non-nuclear war with China the US would run out of precision missiles in a week. The US needs to dramatically up is ammo production overall, not just for Ukraine. But it seems like there's multiple problems, both on the funding side (too much Defense spending earmarked for pet projects) and capacity side (not enough munitions factories any more). I'd be surprised if either issue is solved this year.

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19 minutes ago, Fez said:

Western estimates from pre-invasion of how much ammo is needed for a modern war seem like they were dramatically off. I saw an article the other day that Pentagon analysts now estimate that in an all-out non-nuclear war with China the US would run out of precision missiles in a week. The US needs to dramatically up is ammo production overall, not just for Ukraine. But it seems like there's multiple problems, both on the funding side (too much Defense spending earmarked for pet projects) and capacity side (not enough munitions factories any more). I'd be surprised if either issue is solved this year.

That’s because the Pentagon has been assuing hard quick fights facilitated by precision munitions.  They aren’t up to a long hard slog with another great power of comperable technological advancment.

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I think tank shells are the more imminent problem.

Nah, its artillery. Tanks might hurt a bit but Ukraine uses artillery at an astonishing rate. Artillery is taking the role of fire missions, suppression, pinpoint value target destruction, antiarmor destruction and infrastructure destruction. It's basically doing everything artillery, air and armor does.

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27 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Nah, its artillery. Tanks might hurt a bit but Ukraine uses artillery at an astonishing rate. Artillery is taking the role of fire missions, suppression, pinpoint value target destruction, antiarmor destruction and infrastructure destruction. It's basically doing everything artillery, air and armor does.

Yup. Ukraine has been using HIMARS to knock out individual supply trucks whilst they are parked up for refuelling or even the driver is out taking a leak*, which is not really what it's designed for but is also hugely important in disrupting Russian resupply operations.

*Literally one Russian truck driver reported getting out of his truck and coming back 3 minutes later to find a HIMARS shell had exploded ball bearings through the engine block and reduced it to Swiss Cheese. The accuracy is unbelievable.

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Russia is reporting it will station tactical nuclear weapon delivery systems, and possibly weapons themselves, in Belarus for the first time since the 1990s.

There seems to be a general agreement this sounds more of a thing than it actually is. Russia already has tactical nukes in Kaliningrad, in direct range of cities like Berlin, Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga, so putting tactical nukes in Belarus does relatively little to enhance its strategic or tactical options. It also sounds like they will initially put bombers and Iskander missiles in Belarus ahead of the arrival of any weapons themselves.

At the same time, Poland has begun laying tank traps along its border with Belarus (they've already done the same with Kaliningrad).

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18 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russia is reporting it will station tactical nuclear weapon delivery systems, and possibly weapons themselves, in Belarus for the first time since the 1990s.

There seems to be a general agreement this sounds more of a thing than it actually is. Russia already has tactical nukes in Kaliningrad, in direct range of cities like Berlin, Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga, so putting tactical nukes in Belarus does relatively little to enhance its strategic or tactical options. It also sounds like they will initially put bombers and Iskander missiles in Belarus ahead of the arrival of any weapons themselves.

At the same time, Poland has begun laying tank traps along its border with Belarus (they've already done the same with Kaliningrad).

I wonder if Lukashenko was aware of this before it was announced by Russia. 

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