Is Walder Frey an Idiot?

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

3 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Robert's alliance also seemed to be tied up for generations. It was much stronger and was only resented by the Dornish - and still, it fell apart pretty quickly because it was 1) a new dynasty, 2) the Baratheons do not have the same 'exceptionalism' as Targaryens, 3) the person who held it together (Jon Arryn) died and internal disagreements (Lannister vs Stark, Renly vs Lannister) came to light.

All these issues are present in the new regime (internal disagreements between Lannister siblings and Lannisters vs Tyrells), just the alliance is weaker, the king is much worse, and the hate and resentment are much stronger and more widespread. 

I am not saying that war is completely inevitable, but I think Walder Frey took a huge risk mostly out of spite. Yes, ambition is a part of it, but he does not even become Lord Paramount and the main prize, Riverrun will be loyal to the Lannisters instead of the Freys in any future war.

 

On the other hand, it was a masterful move from Tywin (destroyed his enemies without losses, and the breaking of guest rights will be blamed on his patsies) and a good move from Roose (if he stayed with Robb and died, his house would have died with him).

His house is too massive to die completely. More than likely a Lannister-Frey would be given the castle in that situation.

The Lannisters get blame for the RW as well, just not as much as the Freys

[Bendric Dayne]

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

It doesnt benefit him? Hes literaly got 3 marriage alliances to the ruling lannisters now, his allies have taken darry and harrenhall  , his family get riverrun . In the north his.family have married the warden (2rd strongest house too)  and 3 marriages to the manderlys and both allied to the seeming near future comming house lannister of winterfell! 

 

What I meant to say is that those benefits don't outweigh the damages done to his house by doing the RW, so overall he's ending up with more negatives than positives. Besides those marriages don't really do much to elevate the status of his house. They are already arguably the second most powerful house in the Riverlands, had they become Lords of the Riverlands then yeah it's an upgrade, but what they got in terms of benefits, isn't great. What they got in negatives is absolutely terrible for their house.

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

True and we all look forward to that esp greatjons revenege but we are talking from walders perspective here

 all that assumes he could have predicted the red wedding 2.0  being formulated with 2 undead leaders plus everyone and their dog assumed manderly was a coward! Your expecting him to show a breathtaking level of foresight to predict all that comming from.what on.paper seems like a deal that seals up the kingdom for all time.

 

Sometimes we treat these characters like they can read the books too! The red wedding seemingly ends the war and unites all under a new dynasty  from any realistic perspective in their world.

Walder doesn't need to see the future to know that the RW will do terrible damage to his house. He should know (unless he is an idiot, which is exactly what I'm arguing) that doing the red wedding will leave many people hating him, and many others regarding him as untrustworthy, which can't possibly be good for his house going forward. He doesn't have to predict all those things you say; in Westerosi society, breaking guest right is one of the worst sins, he should know that nothing good can come out of doing it. Yeah it ends the war, but the war ending mostly benefits Tywin who has enemies all around. The Freys shouldn't really care how long the war lasts so long as they are on the winning side. What they should care about is how terrible their reputation will be after committing an act regarded by all houses in Westeros, to be absolutely atrocious. 

 

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

Yeah bit robb has massive problems north too , ironborn still to unleash their full numbers, karstark rebels and of course the recapture of winterfell that ...cough 'somehow' managed to lose most of the stark and nearby vassal remaining strength but littlw of the boltons strength ..that damned theon its  soo strange how he managed that!

All of this is irrelevant to me when it comes to beating Tywin. If he beated Tywin he could then focus on the North, which we have no reason to believe it would be too difficult. The Boltons manage to deal with the ironborn threat all on their own. So long as the ironborn and the Karstarks remained North they couldn't really do any harm to Robb's numbers when it came to beating Tywin. Wether Robb could actually beat Tywin is another matter. Robb feels that with the Freys he has a chance. I don't know what the numbers of the armies were or how many would fight in any given battle or what circumstances each would need to win their respective battles. I do know that Robb proved time and again that when it comes to battles, he knows his stuff, so if he felt that he could beat Tywin with the Freys at his side then I genuinely believe he had a chance. I don't think Robb would go through all the trouble of having Edmure marry a Frey girl (which Edmure clearly does not want), and of having to go all the way to the Twins for a marriage, all to get Frey numbers to go and fight a war he does not believe he can win. The fact that Robb still believes he can win tells me there was still a war left to fight.

[csuszka1948]

1 minute ago, Lord Edmure of Riverrun said:

His house is too massive to die completely. More than likely a Lannister-Frey would be given the castle in that situation.

The Lannisters get blame for the RW as well, just not as much as the Freys

Nobody really blames the Lannisters openly. They are already hated for the razing of the Riverlands and Ned's death, so at this point the rumor that they had a role in the RW doesn't matter. 

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

Just now, csuszka1948 said:

Nobody really blames the Lannisters openly. They are already hated for the razing of the Riverlands and Ned's death, so at this point the rumor that they had a role in the RW doesn't matter. 

True enough, but everyone who is anyone knows Tywin is behind it.

[csuszka1948]

14 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

All of this is irrelevant to me when it comes to beating Tywin. If he beated Tywin he could then focus on the North, which we have no reason to believe it would be too difficult. The Boltons manage to deal with the ironborn threat all on their own. So long as the ironborn and the Karstarks remained North they couldn't really do any harm to Robb's numbers when it came to beating Tywin. Wether Robb could actually beat Tywin is another matter. Robb feels that with the Freys he has a chance. I don't know what the numbers of the armies were or how many would fight in any given battle or what circumstances each would need to win their respective battles. I do know that Robb proved time and again that when it comes to battles, he knows his stuff, so if he felt that he could beat Tywin with the Freys at his side then I genuinely believe he had a chance. I don't think Robb would go through all the trouble of having Edmure marry a Frey girl (which Edmure clearly does not want), and of having to go all the way to the Twins for a marriage, all to get Frey numbers to fight a war he does not believe he can win. The fact that Robb still believes he can win tells me there was still a war left to fight.

In the books, Robb didn't say that he can beat Tywin: he was planning to take back Moat Cailin and the rest of the North from the Ironborn. Of course, he held out some hope that later he can come back to defend the Riverlands, but this doesn't seem reasonable because there is a 60k Tyrell army set against him. At the very best, he could protect the Twins, but I do not see how could he protect Riverrun, so the marriage to Edmure was worthless.

Besides, why would Walder Frey trust him to come back, when he already betrayed him once and he will have every reason to stay in the North once he has retaken it? Do you think any Northern lord will be willing to march south AGAIN for Edmure and Walder Frey?

[csuszka1948]

15 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

What I meant to say is that those benefits don't outweigh the damages done to his house by doing the RW, so overall he's ending up with more negatives than positives. Besides those marriages don't really do much to elevate the status of his house. They are already arguably the second most powerful house in the Riverlands, had they become Lords of the Riverlands then yeah it's an upgrade, but what they got in terms of benefits, isn't great. What they got in negatives is absolutely terrible for their house.

Yes, I agree you about this. The main prize would be Riverrun, but it is effectively ruled by Genna, and Emmon's sons are more loyal to the Lannisters than to the Freys. The Lord Paramountcy is less important (who will respect LF?), but the fact that it wasn't given to Walder is telling: Tywin knew that the remaining Riverlords would rather accept an 'upjumped-coppercounter' LF as their official leader than the 'guestright-breaker' Freys.

Yes, if they have simply turned cloaks they wouldn't have gotten any rewards and marriages, but Robb would likely still be dead and most Riverlords would actually respect Walder Frey for his decision.

[Bendric Dayne]

1 minute ago, csuszka1948 said:

In the books, Robb didn't say that he can beat Tywin: he was planning to take back Moat Cailin and the rest of the North from the Ironborn. Of course, he held out some hope that later he can come back to defend the Riverlands, but this doesn't seem reasonable because there is a 60k Tyrell army set against him. At the very best, he could protect the Twins, but I do not see how could he protect Riverrun, so the marriage to Edmure was worthless.

Besides, why would Walder Frey trust him to come back, when he already betrayed him once and he will have every reason to stay in the North once he has retaken it? Do you think any Northern lord will be willing to march south AGAIN for Edmure and Walder Frey?

I'm pretty sure he never plans on going North or to Moat Cailin after the ironborn invasion. He says that his men would never go back south if he went North. So he sends the Boltons to go deal with the ironborn in the North and Moat Cailin, he never plans on marching his army North. His plan was to reconcile with the Freys and go west to draw Tywin west, what his plan was after that, I'm not sure, but he clearly had some plan. He never says that he thinks he can beat Tywin, but he doesn't feel that the war is lost yet, which implies he still feels he can win, which he'd have to beat Tywin to do so.

I also don't see why he would have to protect Riverrun. We see in AFFC how the few remaining Tully forces are prepared for a long siege, with stores of food that will last them a long time. With the drawbridge up, no one can really do anything to Riverrun. Any enemy would be wasting their time with a siege until their food stores run out, by which time the war could well be over. The only reason the Freys have Riverrun now is because Jaime managed to make Edmure concede the castle by threatening him. Even Jaime knew how difficult it would be to take Riverrun despite his numbers advantage. 

[csuszka1948]

1 hour ago, Bendric Dayne said:

I'm pretty sure he never plans on going North or to Moat Cailin after the ironborn invasion. He says that his men would never go back south if he went North. So he sends the Boltons to go deal with the ironborn in the North and Moat Cailin, he never plans on marching his army North. His plan was to reconcile with the Freys and go west to draw Tywin west, what his plan was after that, I'm not sure, but he clearly had some plan. He never says that he thinks he can beat Tywin, but he doesn't feel that the war is lost yet, which implies he still feels he can win, which he'd have to beat Tywin to do so.

No, he plans to go North:

' "You cannot mean to attack up the causeway, Your Grace," said Galbart Glover. "The approaches are too narrow. There is no way to deploy. No one has ever taken the Moat."

"From the south," said Robb. "But if we can attack from the north and west simultaneously, and take the ironmen in the rear while they are beating off what they think is my main thrust up the causeway, then we have a chance. Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart. If the Greyjoys have eyes south of the Neck, they will see my whole strength rushing headlong at Moat Cailin.'

 

It is important to note that he crafts this plan AFTER hearing about Balon's death. Before Balon's death, taking Moat Cailin would have been probably impossible and his situation would be even more desperate. 

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

No, he plans to go North:

' "You cannot mean to attack up the causeway, Your Grace," said Galbart Glover. "The approaches are too narrow. There is no way to deploy. No one has ever taken the Moat."

"From the south," said Robb. "But if we can attack from the north and west simultaneously, and take the ironmen in the rear while they are beating off what they think is my main thrust up the causeway, then we have a chance. Once I link up with Lord Bolton and the Freys, I will have more than twelve thousand men. I mean to divide them into three battles and start up the causeway a half-day apart. If the Greyjoys have eyes south of the Neck, they will see my whole strength rushing headlong at Moat Cailin.'

 

It is important to note that he crafts this plan AFTER hearing about Balon's death. Before Balon's death, taking Moat Cailin would have been probably impossible and his situation would be even more desperate. 

I think, given that the Robb would have the Crannogmen in his side completely negates some of the negatives of attacking Moat Cailin. Plus the fact he’d be able to attack from multiple directions instead of just from the south, with overwhelming numbers. It’d be bloody no doubt, but I think Robb would take Moat Cailin.

[astarkchoice]

6 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Robert's alliance also seemed to be tied up for generations. It was much stronger and was only resented by the Dornish - and still, it fell apart pretty quickly because it was 1) a new dynasty, 2) the Baratheons do not have the same 'exceptionalism' as Targaryens, 3) the person who held it together (Jon Arryn) died and internal disagreements (Lannister vs Stark, Renly vs Lannister) came to light.

All these issues are present in the new regime (internal disagreements between Lannister siblings and Lannisters vs Tyrells), just the alliance is weaker, the king is much worse, and the hate and resentment are much stronger and more widespread. 

I am not saying that war is completely inevitable, but I think Walder Frey took a huge risk mostly out of spite. Yes, ambition is a part of it, but he does not even become Lord Paramount and the main prize, Riverrun will be loyal to the Lannisters instead of the Freys in any future war.

 

On the other hand, it was a masterful move from Tywin (destroyed his enemies without losses, and the breaking of guest rights will be blamed on his patsies) and a good move from Roose (if he stayed with Robb and died, his house would have died with him).

Roberts dynasty lasted a generation thats pretty stable by westeros standards this one ties in the vale, westerlands, reach ,north  riverlands and dornish (mycella)  as never before. 

Id say tywin masterfully added that as a countererweight to so much frey control of the riverlands, they are allies now tied at the hip and highly unlikely to be at war but it always helps to have a  lil leverage over any ally!

Yeah agreed  roose has the north tied up and any bad blood will seemingly  be largely exercised as he works with his frey/lannsiter/tyrell alloes to save the north from the ironborn! The manderlys house is dripping with frey marriages and spys so is seemingly virtualy a tight  frey ally, ramsays lil suckerpunch wiped out most of the remaining stark or stark allied men, lady dustin pretty much speaks for 2 major houses (hers and her fathers) as well as one of the norths few major towns, karstarks fell put with starks anyway and the piece de resistance seemingly the now legitimate  ramsay will marry a 'stark' and tyrion come north with sansa to found house lannister of winterfell!!!

[astarkchoice]

6 hours ago, Bendric Dayne said:

What I meant to say is that those benefits don't outweigh the damages done to his house by doing the RW, so overall he's ending up with more negatives than positives. Besides those marriages don't really do much to elevate the status of his house. They are already arguably the second most powerful house in the Riverlands, had they become Lords of the Riverlands then yeah it's an upgrade, but what they got in terms of benefits, isn't great. What they got in negatives is absolutely terrible for their house.

Walder doesn't need to see the future to know that the RW will do terrible damage to his house. He should know (unless he is an idiot, which is exactly what I'm arguing) that doing the red wedding will leave many people hating him, and many others regarding him as untrustworthy, which can't possibly be good for his house going forward. He doesn't have to predict all those things you say; in Westerosi society, breaking guest right is one of the worst sins, he should know that nothing good can come out of doing it. Yeah it ends the war, but the war ending mostly benefits Tywin who has enemies all around. The Freys shouldn't really care how long the war lasts so long as they are on the winning side. What they should care about is how terrible their reputation will be after committing an act regarded by all houses in Westeros, to be absolutely atrocious. 

 

All of this is irrelevant to me when it comes to beating Tywin. If he beated Tywin he could then focus on the North, which we have no reason to believe it would be too difficult. The Boltons manage to deal with the ironborn threat all on their own. So long as the ironborn and the Karstarks remained North they couldn't really do any harm to Robb's numbers when it came to beating Tywin. Wether Robb could actually beat Tywin is another matter. Robb feels that with the Freys he has a chance. I don't know what the numbers of the armies were or how many would fight in any given battle or what circumstances each would need to win their respective battles. I do know that Robb proved time and again that when it comes to battles, he knows his stuff, so if he felt that he could beat Tywin with the Freys at his side then I genuinely believe he had a chance. I don't think Robb would go through all the trouble of having Edmure marry a Frey girl (which Edmure clearly does not want), and of having to go all the way to the Twins for a marriage, all to get Frey numbers to go and fight a war he does not believe he can win. The fact that Robb still believes he can win tells me there was still a war left to fight.

They got real tangible power, actual houses, rich lands  and alliances/ties to the actual royal dynasty as well as the norths new ruling houses ....vs some bad PR and lack of trust (and maybe a lotta dowry money to pay out) thats chickenfeed! Sometimes we forget westeros isnt a democracy nor do 99%  of the ordinary people give a shit or fully understand about the high lords b.s

Sometimes we forget tywin sacked kl and had 2 kids killed and before the red wedding there was castermere  and centuries of various targ attrocities..the ironborn too. It all gets washed into the tapestry of  horror that is westeros history. For all the bad feeling they will now have within a generation  it would have been forgotten and all lords would care about is power thus allying to freys would be desirable.

 

Robb has no choice to continue fighting hes a good general  and made a brilliant opening move but so is randyl taryl, willas  and garlan tyrell seem highly competent and tywin  isnt jamie !  Plus  a huge numbers  disadvantage cannot be ignored.

Northwise the kingsmoot solved the ironborn issue which otherwise would have been a nightmare to root out for a side with 0 navy esp after ramsays lil suckerpunch on the remaining stark and stark loyalist men!!

As for the freys their extra numbers are useful but robb needs them for the twins..minus that the riverlands and north are  semingly cut in half,if he doesnt win them back he must bleed his limited forces to besige them...and that risks tyrell/lannister masses arriving and sweeping them away!

Bottom line youd have to be utterly delusional to not see how 80k or so fresh reachmen, reach money and resources and their vast navy suddenly alters things to a hugely uphill battle at best or unwinnable.

[csuszka1948]

7 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

They got real tangible power, actual houses, rich lands  and alliances/ties to the actual royal dynasty as well as the norths new ruling houses ....vs some bad PR and lack of trust (and maybe a lotta dowry money to pay out) thats chickenfeed! Sometimes we forget westeros isnt a democracy nor do 99%  of the ordinary people give a shit or fully understand about the high lords b.s

Sometimes we forget tywin sacked kl and had 2 kids killed and before the red wedding there was castermere  and centuries of various targ attrocities..the ironborn too. It all gets washed into the tapestry of  horror that is westeros history. For all the bad feeling they will now have within a generation  it would have been forgotten and all lords would care about is power thus allying to freys would be desirable.

As a result of Tywin's actions, the Dornish, most of the Northmen and the Riverlords, the common folk and the Targaryens all hate the Lannisters and will use the first sign of weakness to destroy them. We see this happening in AFFC. Still, Tywin's gamble could have worked out if he treated his children as human beings instead of pawns (this was his fatal flaw) and passed his legacy to them.

The Freys are in a worse situation, because even their allies despise them and would abandon them in a heartbeat. An event like the Red Wedding won't be forgotten in 20 years, just like the North wouldn't easily bend the knee to Daenerys because of her father's actions (which are actually mild compared to the Red Wedding).

[astarkchoice]

14 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

As a result of Tywin's actions, the Dornish, most of the Northmen and the Riverlords, the common folk and the Targaryens all hate the Lannisters and will use the first sign of weakness to destroy them. We see this happening in AFFC. Still, Tywin's gamble could have worked out if he treated his children as human beings instead of pawns (this was his fatal flaw) and passed his legacy to them.

The Freys are in a worse situation, because even their allies despise them and would abandon them in a heartbeat. An event like the Red Wedding won't be forgotten in 20 years, just like the North wouldn't easily bend the knee to Daenerys because of her father's actions (which are actually mild compared to the Red Wedding).

The common folk largely dont care as long as they are left the hell alone. Westeros is not a democracy so '  poll numbers' dont matter , the fact  is tywin had suceeded in conquering the north and riverlands and marrying his regime to westeros true superpower in the reach! With stannis seemingly broken his grandson + grandaughter in law will command the now beaten stormlords and crownlands too. The vale stayed neutral and LF promises to bring it back to the fold and the dornish for all their hate have married a future ruler to mycella and co operated to nulify stannis.

 

Any other viewpoint comes from the foresight and insight that being a reader of the books has and no book character could realisticly be expected to have.9

[Bendric Dayne]

8 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

They got real tangible power, actual houses, rich lands  and alliances/ties to the actual royal dynasty as well as the norths new ruling houses ....vs some bad PR and lack of trust (and maybe a lotta dowry money to pay out) thats chickenfeed! Sometimes we forget westeros isnt a democracy nor do 99%  of the ordinary people give a shit or fully understand about the high lords b.s

They had bad PR before the Red Wedding, now they basically have no PR. No one is going to trust them or deal with them. The marriages to the Manderlys are nice I suppose, but don't really elevate their house's status. The only marriage that could elevate their status is that to the Boltons, but the North is too far for the Freys, like it's still a good marriage, but one that doesn't really affect their status in the Riverlands too much. Like if some Riverlanders have a dispute with the Freys, would Roose Bolton really send a Northern army to settle that dispute? Why should he? He rules the North, not the Riverlands, that would fall to the Freys' Lord Paramount which is Littlefinger, or to the Crown. 

Yeah Westeros is not a democracy. It's a society that takes the violation of guest right as a terrible sin. Even the common folk take guest right very seriously. Even though they don't really matter that much when it comes to what we are talking about. What matters are the noble houses who have the power to make or break the Freys. In any future conflict (which Walder can't predict when he decided to do the RW, but also can't be sure won't happen, I mean look at the psychotic boy they have for a king, it's a pretty safe bet that there will be future conflicts) the Freys are the first house people will have it against. Most of their own allies hate them as well, and won't be inclined to deal with them. Walder should have predicted this, he should know how sacred guest right is viewed amongst the houses in Westeros, even the ones allied with the Lannisters. None of them are going to feel safe dealing with them now.

9 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Sometimes we forget tywin sacked kl and had 2 kids killed and before the red wedding there was castermere  and centuries of various targ attrocities..the ironborn too. It all gets washed into the tapestry of  horror that is westeros history. For all the bad feeling they will now have within a generation  it would have been forgotten and all lords would care about is power thus allying to freys would be desirable.

 

Walder Frey does not have the power of the Lannisters. Most people have disdain towards Tywin and House Lannister for those atrocious acts, but they also fear the Lannisters and their power. There are some acts to be considered terrible in Westeros, like kingslaying, which is why everyone dislikes Jaime Lannister and calls him the Kingslayer. Everyone considers guest right to be holy, and anyone who breaks it will be hated for it. The difference is that people can hate Jaime Lannister all they want, but they're afraid to do anything to him because the Lannisters are too powerful. No one fears the Freys. Either way, those atrocities you talked about gave the Lannisters more power, but they were not forgotten. Ned Stark remembered, and now the Starks are in war with the Lannisters when they should have been allies after Robert's rebellion. If Tywin does not commit those atrocities, the Starks and Lannisters could have always gotten along, and there would be no necessity for this war. If Jaime doesn't kill his king who's to say he and Ned wouldn't get along? All those acts considered to be atrocious in Westeros do catch up with Tywin and the Lannisters in the end. 

 

9 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Bottom line youd have to be utterly delusional to not see how 80k or so fresh reachmen, reach money and resources and their vast navy suddenly alters things to a hugely uphill battle at best or unwinnable.

So Robb Stark is utterly delusional? I'm not saying the odds are not against his favor, it clearly looks bad on paper, but Robb knows the situation he's in and still feels he can keep fighting. Why try to reconcile with the Freys if he feels it's hopeless either way? Why not just head back North and call it a day? Robb doesn't strike me as the type of commander who would fight a war he knows he has no hope of winning. I don't know what his plan was but he did seem to have a plan. Doesn't mean he was going to end up winning the war, but if Robb didn't think it was hopeless, then I don't think we should feel that it was either. He knows more about how to win a war in Westeros than we do, so I'm inclined to trust in his judgement. If he feels there was hope, then there was hope. 

 

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

Any other viewpoint comes from the foresight and insight that being a reader of the books has and no book character could realisticly be expected to have.9

Walder Frey did not have to predict how exactly the RW was going to affect his house negatively, or who exactly was going to try and get revenge and in what manner they were exactly going to do so. All I'm saying is that he should have known that guest right is sacred in Westerosi society, and that no good can come out of breaking it. Just like a famous person today should know that saying racist comments will end up doing them a lot of damage. They don't have to predict who in particular will call them out on it or what exact deals they will be left out of, they should just know that it can't be any good for their career. Walder should know that the houses in Westeros will now look down on him (even more than before) and that it is very possible that at least one of the houses of the many he killed members of, can very likely look to damage his house in any way they can. And that other houses will refrain from getting near his house as much as they can. 

[astarkchoice]

30 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

They had bad PR before the Red Wedding, now they basically have no PR. No one is going to trust them or deal with them. The marriages to the Manderlys are nice I suppose, but don't really elevate their house's status. The only marriage that could elevate their status is that to the Boltons, but the North is too far for the Freys, like it's still a good marriage, but one that doesn't really affect their status in the Riverlands too much. Like if some Riverlanders have a dispute with the Freys, would Roose Bolton really send a Northern army to settle that dispute? Why should he? He rules the North, not the Riverlands, that would fall to the Freys' Lord Paramount which is Littlefinger, or to the Crown. 

Yeah Westeros is not a democracy. It's a society that takes the violation of guest right as a terrible sin. Even the common folk take guest right very seriously. Even though they don't really matter that much when it comes to what we are talking about. What matters are the noble houses who have the power to make or break the Freys. In any future conflict (which Walder can't predict when he decided to do the RW, but also can't be sure won't happen, I mean look at the psychotic boy they have for a king, it's a pretty safe bet that there will be future conflicts) the Freys are the first house people will have it against. Most of their own allies hate them as well, and won't be inclined to deal with them. Walder should have predicted this, he should know how sacred guest right is viewed amongst the houses in Westeros, even the ones allied with the Lannisters. None of them are going to feel safe dealing with them now.

Walder Frey does not have the power of the Lannisters. Most people have disdain towards Tywin and House Lannister for those atrocious acts, but they also fear the Lannisters and their power. There are some acts to be considered terrible in Westeros, like kingslaying, which is why everyone dislikes Jaime Lannister and calls him the Kingslayer. Everyone considers guest right to be holy, and anyone who breaks it will be hated for it. The difference is that people can hate Jaime Lannister all they want, but they're afraid to do anything to him because the Lannisters are too powerful. No one fears the Freys. Either way, those atrocities you talked about gave the Lannisters more power, but they were not forgotten. Ned Stark remembered, and now the Starks are in war with the Lannisters when they should have been allies after Robert's rebellion. If Tywin does not commit those atrocities, the Starks and Lannisters could have always gotten along, and there would be no necessity for this war. If Jaime doesn't kill his king who's to say he and Ned wouldn't get along? All those acts considered to be atrocious in Westeros do catch up with Tywin and the Lannisters in the end. 

 

So Robb Stark is utterly delusional? I'm not saying the odds are not against his favor, it clearly looks bad on paper, but Robb knows the situation he's in and still feels he can keep fighting. Why try to reconcile with the Freys if he feels it's hopeless either way? Why not just head back North and call it a day? Robb doesn't strike me as the type of commander who would fight a war he knows he has no hope of winning. I don't know what his plan was but he did seem to have a plan. Doesn't mean he was going to end up winning the war, but if Robb didn't think it was hopeless, then I don't think we should feel that it was either. He knows more about how to win a war in Westeros than we do, so I'm inclined to trust in his judgement. If he feels there was hope, then there was hope. 

 

Walder Frey did not have to predict how exactly the RW was going to affect his house negatively, or who exactly was going to try and get revenge and in what manner they were exactly going to do so. All I'm saying is that he should have known that guest right is sacred in Westerosi society, and that no good can come out of breaking it. Just like a famous person today should know that saying racist comments will end up doing them a lot of damage. They don't have to predict who in particular will call them out on it or what exact deals they will be left out of, they should just know that it can't be any good for their career. Walder should know that the houses in Westeros will now look down on him (even more than before) and that it is very possible that at least one of the houses of the many he killed members of, can very likely look to damage his house in any way they can. And that other houses will refrain from getting near his house as much as they can. 

Yeah there is no house as string as theirs now in the riverlands , the lord paramount is their ally and they would have 4 active marriages to the royal family! You really cant get more secure than that riverlandswise not to mention they are allied + married to roose  as well as the wealthiest house in the north (manderly too)

Its a broken taboo yes but so is kinslaying,kinglsaying  sacking the capital  and massacring houses to a man  etc and others did just fine!  hes now married into all the great houses  ..so where exactly is this deadly threat to come from?,dorne? Essos? The stormlands? For evey common folk who hate them for it theres others happy he got revenge for their losses or far mors just happy  that their sons and husbands came.home alive not needing to fight a stupid war and die for some highlords honour or fueds! As for guest right dont forget how many times  its already been violated when hostages have been taken from the lannisters  or even the mad king

Right so again seemingly  hes now tied into virtualy all the major houses  including the new immesely powerful royal one .

 

He has no choice but to fight on hes been wronged, his kingdom and house aee under severe theat and again he MUST attack the twins of he cant win them.back for the exsct same.reasons he agreed to marry  into them the 1st time!! Yes of course a new giant imbalance in troops means hes unlikely to win

He predicted people might despise him more but the marriages  he set  up means it matter not , after hes dead the children produced from those unions and their nallies  will rule the 7 kingdoms! Bolton master of the north , house manderly, lannister of darry, lannister of winterfell, lord baelish of harrenhall and lord of the vale as ally, 2 other lannister marriages and of course frey of riverrun.9

[Hugorfonics]

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Yeah there is no house as string as theirs now in the riverlands

I agree. But "now" is fleeting

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

the lord paramount is their ally

Define ally?

Quote

. . . Harrenhal has withered every hand to touch it."

"Then give it to Lord Frey."

Petyr laughed. "Perhaps I shall.

Petyr is no lord and has no business running a kingdom (or two), Frey however definitely does. Yet who's the boss here?

The answer is LF, which is actually nobody.

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

and they would have 4 active marriages to the royal family! You really cant get more secure than that riverlandswise

They coulda hooked up with other riverlanders, instead of being despised by them. 

And since they are the least they could do is hold on to their hostages to make sure there neighbors don't start murdering them (eg. Manderly). But they don't, and they are.

(Also, all I can think of is Gatehouse Ami which isn't working out for any party that's not Ami and the stable boys)

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

+ married to roose  as well as the wealthiest house in the north

So like Riverrun this is a poisoned prizes. Ramsay has no desire of losing out of the Dreadfort which is sure to cause animosity 

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Its a broken taboo yes but so is kinslaying,kinglsaying  sacking the capital  and massacring houses to a man  etc and others did just fine!  hes now married into all the great houses  ..so where exactly is this deadly threat to come from?,dorne? Essos? The stormlands? For evey common folk who hate them for it theres others happy he got revenge for their losses or far mors just happy  that their sons and husbands came.home alive not needing to fight a stupid war and die for some highlords honour or fueds! As for guest right dont forget how many times  its already been violated when hostages have been taken from the lannisters  or even the mad king

Perhaps this is the straw that broke the camels back, or perhaps Jorahs wrong and these smallfolk actually have some political mind. But the Riverlands is Catelyn territory now, and the smallfolk are all too eager to hang a Frey in the name of murder and violated guest rights

2 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Right so again seemingly  hes now tied into virtualy all the major houses  including the new immesely powerful royal one .

Seemingly. But it's hollow af

 

Regarding Robb vs MC. Normally in most normal circumstances I'd bed heavily on the castle that's never been taken from the south.

But this is the end of asos where within 7-30 days the entire geopolitical map gets redrawn.

Before Robb arrives at the Twins he names Jon heir. Why? Because the death of Balon left a vacuum. And like all vacuums, it sucks. Vic who took the stronghold of the north thusly strangling Robb's kingdom has gone home. With his veterans.

Robb would not be marching on a fully manned MC, therefore I actually would bet on him to be victorious in the scenario of Robb not getting brutally murdered or whatever.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

I agree. But "now" is fleeting

Define ally?

Petyr is no lord and has no business running a kingdom (or two), Frey however definitely does. Yet who's the boss here?

The answer is LF, which is actually nobody.

They coulda hooked up with other riverlanders, instead of being despised by them. 

And since they are the least they could do is hold on to their hostages to make sure there neighbors don't start murdering them (eg. Manderly). But they don't, and they are.

(Also, all I can think of is Gatehouse Ami which isn't working out for any party that's not Ami and the stable boys)

So like Riverrun this is a poisoned prizes. Ramsay has no desire of losing out of the Dreadfort which is sure to cause animosity 

Perhaps this is the straw that broke the camels back, or perhaps Jorahs wrong and these smallfolk actually have some political mind. But the Riverlands is Catelyn territory now, and the smallfolk are all too eager to hang a Frey in the name of murder and violated guest rights

Seemingly. But it's hollow af

 

Regarding Robb vs MC. Normally in most normal circumstances I'd bed heavily on the castle that's never been taken from the south.

But this is the end of asos where within 7-30 days the entire geopolitical map gets redrawn.

Before Robb arrives at the Twins he names Jon heir. Why? Because the death of Balon left a vacuum. And like all vacuums, it sucks. Vic who took the stronghold of the north thusly strangling Robb's kingdom has gone home. With his veterans.

Robb would not be marching on a fully manned MC, therefore I actually would bet on him to be victorious in the scenario of Robb not getting brutally murdered or whatever.

Can be but we are talking from book characters perspectives, i mean anything can happen but the  likeylhood of them.being ususurped from their new stanglehold had to seem very very unlikely

Ally? Well powerwise hes at min lord paramount and while a sneaky lil shit has from the crown the right to command other riverlords to side with freys (or at least he has the backing of whatever manpower and wealth harrenhalls lands command as well as it as a defensive position)...as an allys seemingly hes wedded himself to the new dynasty so practical wise he is their ally unless lord of vale and riverlands isnt the end of his ambitions..again in terms ifnwalders decison (this threads entite point) itd be  hard for any lord to imagine LF wants more than hes  seemingly already massively  fluked into

 

Petyr is the 'boss' the frey/lannsiter/tyrells  are now the real power

They are already married to many of the ones that matter, the tullys are gone, dary is now lannister as for marriages the next gen hes seemingly set up will be married to royals  and regionleaders/powerhouses....so from walders perspective or any lords  will be that for all the shitty taste the red wedding will leave in some lords mouths the game of thrones continues and climbing it will mean allying to the freys now they are branched like everywhere into the new regime

They couldnt hold them forever  they release them when for all intents the war is won.

Riverrun sorry house frey of riverrun   would hardly seem.like a posioned chalice , the dreadfort ? from most book povs seemingly settled as  ramsays ...hes legitimised thus is now  rooses eldest legitimate  son  and seemingly soon to be 'happily'  married to 'arya stark' to share the dreadfort (and   castle hornwood) with his frey in laws.

Yeah but again.as readers with our pov we cant blame characters for not seeing the rise of  a movement lead by  2 undead (one seemingly caught over and over and unkillable) nobles and now possibly aided by the brillance of blackfish.

Yeah but even then the most hardcore stark fan has gotta admit thats a hugely uphill.battle vs the reachs endless.masses.

 

[Hugorfonics]

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Can be but we are talking from book characters perspectives, i mean anything can happen but the  likeylhood of them.being ususurped from their new stanglehold had to seem very very unlikely

Word. But it does happen. Balon dies and the kingsmoot takes place and then his successor retreats from the North. That's not really anything can happen, more like that's what happend. 

And for sure, if I was Robb I would not think the chances look good. But with knowledge of the reader. Yea sure I can

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Ally? Well powerwise hes at min lord paramount and while a sneaky lil shit has from the crown the right to command other riverlords to side with freys (or at least he has the backing of whatever manpower and wealth harrenhalls lands command as well as it as a defensive position)...as an allys seemingly hes wedded himself to the new dynasty so practical wise he is their ally unless lord of vale and riverlands isnt the end of his ambitions..again in terms ifnwalders decison (this threads entite point) itd be  hard for any lord to imagine LF wants more than hes  seemingly already massively  fluked into

Yeah, still... You know you can argue that Petyr was the leading asset at the BW, it's honestly not a hard argument to make (I'd disagree, but whatever). But there's no argument in who was the asset at the RW. 

Idk, I expected him to eat more.

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Petyr is the 'boss' the frey/lannsiter/tyrells  are now the real power

In the Riverlands? Only Cat.

Besides, Frey Lannister and Tyrell isn't one person, more like 15. Or with Frey, 50.

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

They are already married to many of the ones that matter, the tullys are gone

Stoneheart would disagree. So would Brynden. And Sansa and Arya and the boys. And Lord Edmure. Even Edmures soon to be kid can be used a banner to usurp it's mother's family 

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

They are already married to many of the ones that matter, the tullys are gone, dary is now lannister as for marriages the next gen hes seemingly set up will be married to royals  and regionleaders/powerhouses....so from walders perspective or any lords  will be that for all the shitty taste the red wedding will leave in some lords mouths the game of thrones continues and climbing it will mean allying to the freys now they are branched like everywhere into the new regime

It's mad risky. And I agree with the premise "there's always an uglier fish". Bolton isn't hard to paint, mad kings daughter may come back, etc. But it's a real risky gambit here. Frey is coming out as one ugly fish and needs to time everything perfectly or watch it all combust 

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

They couldnt hold them forever  they release them when for all intents the war is won.

And there's the combustion. They shoulda held them until an uglier fish came swimming about but for now Frey is still the most hated, and the hostages are out of Freys hands and into KL. (Whoever that may be) (if they even make it that far, this is Catelyn territory)

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Yeah but again.as readers with our pov we cant blame characters for not seeing the rise of  a movement lead by  2 undead (one seemingly caught over and over and unkillable) nobles and now possibly aided by the brillance of blackfish

They know she's out there. They don't know who she really is, but I'm sure the people do. The land belongs to Hosters daughter.

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Yeah but even then the most hardcore stark fan has gotta admit thats a hugely uphill.battle vs the reachs endless.masses

I am a Stark fan. Wouldn't call myself a hardcore one though. But I would call myself a hardcore Reach hater.

They got muscle but don't know what to do with it. They keep looking at every horse in the race and betting large on the lame one. Endless mass is cool, but when they're all lemmings it's not that freighting.

Anyway, whatever the odds. Bet on Grey.

Quote

"The wolves will come again," said Jojen solemnly.

"And how would you be knowing, boy?"

"I dreamed it.

 

[The Lord of the Crossing]

It is Robb and the Starks who are the idiots.  They got their bannermen and soldiers killed because of their stupidity.  I don't think the Starks will ever fully recover.  While Walder gained a lot for his participation in the red wedding. 

[SeanF]

24 minutes ago, The Lord of the Crossing said:

It is Robb and the Starks who are the idiots.  They got their bannermen and soldiers killed because of their stupidity.  I don't think the Starks will ever fully recover.  While Walder gained a lot for his participation in the red wedding. 

His family gained nooses.