Hypothetically, if Edmure had stayed in Riverrun

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

And let Tywin cross back into the Westerlands, how do you think it plays out?

Robb has demonstrated superior tactical ability to Tywin several times, so I’d expect Robb and his forces would have surrounded Tywin and captured him. From there, I doubt they’d kill him right away, with Sansa still in Kings Landing. 
 

But that means now there is no one to attack Stannis from the rear during his attack on Kings Landing. Meaning Stannis takes the city, and puts Cersei and her children to the sword. Leading to Stannis having Sansa in his custody. 
 

From there, what do you think happens? I don’t see the Tyrells or Dornish jumping in to join Stannis. The Vale probably stays neutral, if they don’t they’d probably join the Robb finally.

Edited February 18 by Lord Edmure of Riverrun

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, Lord Edmure of Riverrun said:

Meaning Stannis takes the city

How many men do you reckon Stannis would lose?

[Many-Faced Votary]

1 hour ago, Lord Edmure of Riverrun said:

From there, what do you think happens? I don’t see the Tyrells or Dornish jumping in to join Stannis. The Vale probably stays neutral, if they don’t they’d probably join the Robb finally.

I think your hypothetical makes sense up to this point, but I disagree here.

Stannis is the king on the Iron Throne at this point. The symbolism of that is one thing (Aegon II in the official line of succession instead of Rhaenyra I), but the fact that he would have successfully conquered the capital and ended Lannister power by putting Cersei and her children to death would make it clear to Westeros that there is a new king.

Above all else, the Tyrells are opportunists. They would have treated with Stannis just as they did with Tywin, in exchange for a seat or two on the small council and the betrothal of Shireen to Loras.

The Martells would be delighted to see a king who would sincerely pursue justice and who actively despises the Lannisters. I think they would offer as full support as they could as per their own goals, contingent on whether Doran still intended to marry Quentyn to Daenerys. (A strong king makes this plot far less compelling, and it was ultimately more about vengeance and justice for Doran than about loyalty to the Targaryen dynasty).

The Arryns are Lysa, who is entirely manipulated by Littlefinger. It's hard to say what she would do, but I imagine Littlefinger would probably be sailing to Essos as soon as he could*; and I think it is very likely that Stannis would eventually summon Lysa, and the other lords paramount and major lords, to King's Landing in order to swear fealty.

* Littlefinger and Varys both wanted Stannis to lose the War of the Five Kings most of all. Not only because he would have reunited the realm and ruined their different plans of exploiting war, but also because he vowed to "cleanse" King's Landing, and beheading the two of them would be at the top of his to-do list.

As promised, Stannis would sent Sansa back to Cat with an escort for protection. He would also demand that Robb kneel and set aside his crown, which could be a source of tension, but given the show of good faith in returning Sansa, would be a real possibility.

Greyjoy Rebellion #758 would be crushed in due time as Stannis consolidates his power.

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

8 minutes ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

I think your hypothetical makes sense up to this point, but I disagree here.

Stannis is the king on the Iron Throne at this point. The symbolism of that is one thing (Aegon II in the official line of succession instead of Rhaenyra I), but the fact that he would have successfully conquered the capital and ended Lannister power by putting Cersei and her children to death would make it clear to Westeros that there is a new king.

Above all else, the Tyrells are opportunists. They would have treated with Stannis just as they did with Tywin, in exchange for a seat or two on the small council and the betrothal of Shireen to Loras.

The Martells would be delighted to see a king who would sincerely pursue justice and who actively despises the Lannisters. I think they would offer as full support as they could as per their own goals, contingent on whether Doran still intended to marry Quentyn to Daenerys. (A strong king makes this plot far less compelling, and it was ultimately more about vengeance and justice for Doran than about loyalty to the Targaryen dynasty).

The Arryns are Lysa, who is entirely manipulated by Littlefinger. It's hard to say what she would do, but I imagine Littlefinger would probably be sailing to Essos as soon as he could*; and I think it is very likely that Stannis would eventually summon Lysa, and the other lords paramount and major lords, to King's Landing in order to swear fealty.

* Littlefinger and Varys both wanted Stannis to lose the War of the Five Kings most of all. Not only because he would have reunited the realm and ruined their different plans of exploiting war, but also because he vowed to "cleanse" King's Landing, and beheading the two of them would be at the top of his to-do list.

As promised, Stannis would sent Sansa back to Cat with an escort for protection. He would also demand that Robb kneel and set aside his crown, which could be a source of tension, but given the show of good faith in returning Sansa, would be a real possibility.

Greyjoy Rebellion #758 would be crushed in due time as Stannis consolidates his power.

I can totally see that. Stannis would have to be willing to pardon Robb for that to work. Which is obviously practical for Stannis, but Stannis could feel a sense of justice owed for him claiming a crown and denying Stannis. But given that Stannis returns Sansa, and Robb has Tywin or executed Tywin, I’d wager Stannis and Robb could come to an understanding.

[astarkchoice]

37 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

How many men do you reckon Stannis would lose?

Best stannis line from the show

'Thousands' 

[Many-Faced Votary]

1 minute ago, astarkchoice said:

Best stannis line from the show

'Thousands' 

I know it that line was probably only there because they made him Satannis from the start in the abomination, but its absurdity always makes me laugh.

[Arthur Peres]

Robb would outmanuver Tywin once again, and stop Tywin to reach KL.

Mace could still rescue the city but would not move alone. There is a point to be made that Mace was close to the city at Tumbler's Falls but Tyrion never got word of that, neither Mace let the supplies reach the starving city and only moved against Stannis when Tywin was present.

Even after Blackwater, with the war cleary won, Tywin and Tyrion were afraid that the Tyrells might change sides and support Robb if they are not treated right.

Robb would win his war, the problem starts with what he would do next? Take the Tyrells into his reign? take the IT despite not having any claim to it? seems out of character.

Tyrion, Lancel, Cersei and Joffrey would die in KL. Roose would turn Jaime back to Robb.

Stannis would not remain King for long either. Littlefinger can't tolerate Stannis as king and would move the Vale to opose him. The Tyrells cleary hate too much, and I don't see Tywin been a nice vassal to him when he killed his grandchild and daughter, the IB are in open rebellion, and Stannis does not have the touch or the sense to treat with Robb. It's just a question of who they would replace him with... My guess is they would seek for Daenerys.

[Craving Peaches]

15 minutes ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

The Martells would be delighted to see a king who would sincerely pursue justice and who actively despises the Lannisters

Isn't it mentioned though that no one who fought for the Targaryens would be happy to see Stannis king because he still holds a grudge? Now admittedly it was Littlefinger who said that to Ned, but at the same time we know Stannis does hold a grudge, so...

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Many-Faced Votary said:

Satannis

But Stannis on it's own can spell 'Satan'. It's in the name...

[astarkchoice]

2 minutes ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

I know it that line was probably only there because they made him Satannis from the start in the abomination, but its absurdity always makes me laugh.

Its the little shrug that makes it  then little pause and 'come with me and wel take this city'  one of the few times they so stannis the mannis justice

[Many-Faced Votary]

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Isn't it mentioned though that no one who fought for the Targaryens would be happy to see Stannis king because he still holds a grudge? Now admittedly it was Littlefinger who said that to Ned, but at the same time we know Stannis does hold a grudge, so...

This wouldn't be the same Stannis who developed after losing the Battle of the Blackwater, but it is still Stannis with Davos advising him, so I think it is not unreasonable to expect some measure of leniency here. It would be impossible not to offer pardons and set aside old grudges simply as a matter of practicality, and even in his first appearance (ACoK Prologue) where he is nothing but grudges, he recognizes this.

[Craving Peaches]

Issue is Stannis, assuming he takes King's Landing with limited casualties, would have at best ~25,000 men. At which point Mace Tyrell can then just besiege the city again if he's so inclined, leaving Stannis to starve, since there's no food in the city.

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Many-Faced Votary said:

This wouldn't be the same Stannis who developed after losing the Battle of the Blackwater, but it is still Stannis with Davos advising him

However, post Renly's death (RIP) and pre-Blackwater is the time when Stannis is the most under Melisandre's questionable influence. Davos only really started to get through to him after he lost the Blackwater and so lost some confidence in Melisandre. At least that was my read on the situation.

[Many-Faced Votary]

3 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Issue is Stannis, assuming he takes King's Landing with limited casualties, would have at best ~25,000 men. At which point Mace Tyrell can then just besiege the city again if he's so inclined, leaving Stannis to starve, since there's no food in the city.

Stannis controls the royal fleet in this hypothetical; he has the waters. Mace couldn't realistically starve him out.

Besides, I think even Mace Tyrell is smart enough to know that the honorable Robb Stark would not be particularly pleased to see the rightful king in King's Landing being besieged, and he would travel to the capital for Sansa.

 

Just now, Craving Peaches said:

However, post Renly's death (RIP) and pre-Blackwater is the time when Stannis is the most under Melisandre's questionable influence. Davos only really started to get through to him after he lost the Blackwater and so lost some confidence in Melisandre. At least that was my read on the situation.

Melisandre isn't a devil on his shoulder, and it is a huge disservice to her (especially after getting a PoV chapter in ADwD) to portray things that way. She is a well-intentioned extremist, emphasis on "extreme," but it is in her eyes all for the greater good. She is also quite competent politically from what we've seen; she would not be advising him to hold grudges and to show no mercy.

[astarkchoice]

2 hours ago, Lord Edmure of Riverrun said:

And let Tywin cross back into the Westerlands, how do you think it plays out?

Robb has demonstrated superior tactical ability to Tywin several times, so I’d expect Robb and his forces would have surrounded Tywin and captured him. From there, I doubt they’d kill him right away, with Sansa still in Kings Landing. 
 

But that means now there is no one to attack Stannis from the rear during his attack on Kings Landing. Meaning Stannis takes the city, and puts Cersei and her children to the sword. Leading to Stannis having Sansa in his custody. 
 

From there, what do you think happens? I don’t see the Tyrells or Dornish jumping in to join Stannis. The Vale probably stays neutral, if they don’t they’d probably join the Robb finally.

Lets see

Stannis now takes kl, kills most of the main characters..id predict the hound to protect sansa from cerseis plans for mass suicide and stannis to send her home.

Robb lures tywin just as he says, his increasing warg skills allow him to find yet another secret route or ambush  point (note this set up the awesome prospect of a mountain vs greatjon fight on a battlefield somewhere)

The tyrells however may still reach out to lannisters due to their fears with the florents but that said the lannsiter pact with mycella.is now useless so they withdraw their  men from the passes freeing up the pro stannis marcher lord forces tyrion feared swelling his forces further. 

The sack of kl littlefinger is either killed(thus stopping lysa holding back )  or flees to the vale.minus any royal backing or title and must boost popularity by allowee the vale lords to.march for robb..either way the vale joins the war for robb

[Craving Peaches]

11 minutes ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

Stannis controls the royal fleet in this hypothetical;

Wouldn't he still lose most of it to the Wildfire attack, which would still exist in this scenario?

12 minutes ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

Melisandre isn't a devil on his shoulder, and it is a huge disservice to her (especially after getting a PoV chapter in ADwD) to portray things that way. She is a well-intentioned extremist, emphasis on "extreme," but it is in her eyes all for the greater good. She is also quite competent politically from what we've seen; she would not be advising him to hold grudges and to show no mercy.

I think Melisandre's heart is in the right place but doing things like burning down septs is a big no. And I'm not sure whether Melisandre is really serving R'hlorr or not, or whether R'hlorr is good or not. Which is why I think her influence on Stannis is questionable.

[astarkchoice]

12 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Issue is Stannis, assuming he takes King's Landing with limited casualties, would have at best ~25,000 men. At which point Mace Tyrell can then just besiege the city again if he's so inclined, leaving Stannis to starve, since there's no food in the city.

No food but the seas would be open again (blackwater will take some work) a win like that would pretty much hand stannis the stormlords full  backing making any siege or starvation almost impossible esp as now stannis is king any alliance with dorne through mycella is worthless thus the dornish masses forces in the passes will go home freeing up the pro stannis marcher lords tyrion feared.

Also robbed of any chance of a subtle revenge on tywin by pretend alliances etc doran may jsut march on lannisport!!! 

[Many-Faced Votary]

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Wouldn't he still lose most of it to the Wildfire attack, which would still exist in this scenario?

He would, but he would also gain the ships of King's Landing and would no doubt prioritize projecting his naval might because it is the entire concentration of his power at that point.

And if the Tyrells find it more logical to treat with Stannis as I think would be likely, the point is moot anyway. (And the Redwyne fleet bolstering his would allow him to take on the Iron Fleet eventually.)

 

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think Melisandre's heart is in the right place but doing things like burning down septs is a big no. And I'm not sure whether Melisandre is really serving R'hlorr or not, or whether R'hlorr is good or not. Which is why I think her influence on Stannis is questionable.

Unless Mel is an expert on deluding herself, her PoV makes it clear that she does genuinely serve R'hllor and believes him to be good if not always compassionate, even if she doesn't always draw the right conclusions from reading the flames.

I agree that her willingness to burn down septs and weirwoods, and her desire for ritual sacrifices, reflect poorly on her.

[astarkchoice]

7 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Wouldn't he still lose most of it to the Wildfire attack, which would still exist in this scenario?

 

Yeah he had roughly 200 various ships and is left with about 60-80!

[Alester Florent]

Note that if Stannis takes King's Landing he doesn't get all of Cersei's kids, just Joffrey: Tyrion foresaw the risk of the city falling and ordered the younger ones to be taken to safety. Tommen is at Rosby and Myrcella is in Dorne. What happens to Tommen is a good question, and he could end up effectively "disappearing" at least in the short-medium-term, rather like Arya does after Ned's death (and then the other younger Starks) because he's a long way from friendly territory or friendly arms. Depending on who was actually guarding him and how hopeless the situation seemed, he could go to the Vale, to the Reach, back to the West... or even try to surrender to Robb on the principle that the Starks are more likely to show mercy than Stannis (especially if they give their word they won't hurt him). Really anything could happen.

In Tommen's absence, and with Joffrey presumably dead, that would give some impetus to Arianne's plan to crown Myrcella... but also Oberyn wouldn't be dead so the whole state of Dorne would be different anyway.

Tywin would be fucking furious. Two of his kids and one grandkid dead, his surviving son and grandson missing, and his one confirmed surviving descendant in the hands of, of all people, the Dornish. He wouldn't have a great deal to lose at this point, so I imagine we would see the absolute worst of him in his continued prosecution of the war. We thought what he was doing in the Riverlands was as bad as it got? I suspect we ain't seen nothing yet.