Hypothetically, if Edmure had stayed in Riverrun

[Alester Florent]

6 minutes ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

Unless Mel is an expert on deluding herself, her PoV makes it clear that she does genuinely serve R'hllor and believes him to be good if not always compassionate, even if she doesn't always draw the right conclusions from reading the flames.

I agree that her willingness to burn down septs and weirwoods, and her desire for ritual sacrifices, reflect poorly on her.

Melisandre definitely means well and she fully believes in her cause and what she's doing, but there's a lot of room there for things to go wrong. The visions could be being fed to her by an entity that isn't R'hlorr. Even if they are legit, R'hlorr himself could be a thoroughly bad dude, or could be just an elemental force with no actual moral force (the divergence between Thoros and Moqorro, say, is stark).

So which "side" Mel is really serving is still an open question, and consequently what direction she's pushing Stannis in. She thinks she's one of the good guys, but so do many villains.

[Craving Peaches]

12 minutes ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

Unless Mel is an expert on deluding herself, her PoV makes it clear that she does genuinely serve R'hllor and believes him to be good if not always compassionate, even if she doesn't always draw the right conclusions from reading the flames.

She believes she is serving R'hlorr, but there is no way to tell if it is actually R'hlorr or if it is benevolent. Melisandre certainly believes so, but we don't know. We might never know. Because we only see how R'hlorr 'works' from Melisandre's POV and her sometimes wrong readings of the flames, so it's impossible to get an objective look.

15 minutes ago, Many-Faced Votary said:

but he would also gain the ships of King's Landing

I thought there weren't many of them and they got caught in the blaze too?

[astarkchoice]

5 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

Note that if Stannis takes King's Landing he doesn't get all of Cersei's kids, just Joffrey: Tyrion foresaw the risk of the city falling and ordered the younger ones to be taken to safety. Tommen is at Rosby and Myrcella is in Dorne. What happens to Tommen is a good question, and he could end up effectively "disappearing" at least in the short-medium-term, rather like Arya does after Ned's death (and then the other younger Starks) because he's a long way from friendly territory or friendly arms. Depending on who was actually guarding him and how hopeless the situation seemed, he could go to the Vale, to the Reach, back to the West... or even try to surrender to Robb on the principle that the Starks are more likely to show mercy than Stannis (especially if they give their word they won't hurt him). Really anything could happen.

In Tommen's absence, and with Joffrey presumably dead, that would give some impetus to Arianne's plan to crown Myrcella... but also Oberyn wouldn't be dead so the whole state of Dorne would be different anyway.

Tywin would be fucking furious. Two of his kids and one grandkid dead, his surviving son and grandson missing, and his one confirmed surviving descendant in the hands of, of all people, the Dornish. He wouldn't have a great deal to lose at this point, so I imagine we would see the absolute worst of him in his continued prosecution of the war. We thought what he was doing in the Riverlands was as bad as it got? I suspect we ain't seen nothing yet.

Tommen was held at the rosbys with some of their men and goldcloaks if i recall....if stannis takes kl their proximity to the city , his fearsome rep and the fact many of the defenders were rosbys so there will be hostages means theyl.probably surrender tommen to get into his good graces (and help release any of their own men)

Mycella id say is now useless as stannis is now king and the martells have no desire for the throne just vengance so theyl probably send her home unhurt or adopt her as ward but end the  arranges marriage plans....but insist shes now called sand to piss off tywin

[Many-Faced Votary]

Just now, Craving Peaches said:

She believes she is serving R'hlorr, but there is no way to tell if it is actually R'hlorr or if it is benevolent. Melisandre certainly believes so, but we don't know. We might never know. Because we only see how R'hlorr 'works' from Melisandre's POV and her sometimes wrong readings of the flames, so it's impossible to get an objective look.

I highly doubt we will ever find out with certainty whether any god is real, or if magical power such as reading the flames and greensight are derived from the gods of their religions in truth or not. In that sense, it is irrelevant, because Mel believes she is serving R'hllor. (If it is some other entity, then we won't ever know whether or not they are a god either.)

 

3 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I thought there weren't many of them and they got caught in the blaze too?

They were about a quarter as many, which isn't much but is still significant. Yes, they were also destroyed by the wildfire, but every bit helps.

[Alester Florent]

2 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Tommen was held at the rosbys with some of their men and goldcloaks if i recall....if stannis takes kl their proximity to the city , his fearsome rep and the fact many of the defenders were rosbys so there will be hostages means theyl.probably surrender tommen to get into his good graces (and help release any of their own men)

Mycella id say is now useless as stannis is now king and the martells have no desire for the throne just vengance so theyl probably send her home unhurt or adopt her as ward but end the  arranges marriage plans....but insist shes now called sand to piss off tywin

We don't know how reliable Jacelyn's men with Tommen are, or indeed exactly what their perception of Stannis is. The Gold Cloaks don't have the best reputation for loyalty, but if Stannis has a reputation as a merciless arbiter of justice, they might fear that by handing Tommen over they're then going to end up on the block for betraying their lord (for which there is a Westerosi precedent) and to be honest is the kind of thing Stannis might do. I think it's probably 50/50 whether they try to stick with the plan and escape with Tommen, either to use him as a bargaining chip with a non-Stannis leader or to get him to safety... or whether they kill him/hand him over to Stannis.

Mind, I don't think it's necessarily a given that Stannis would execute Tommen. He's an innocent child, and he doesn't even have the "kingsblood" power which presents a threat to other kids in Stannis's care. He is an incest-abomination... but might Stannis's heart be melted by his sweet smile? Might he not be persuaded that Tommen is more useful as a hostage against Tywin than as a head on a spike?

As to the Martells, while Tywin is their main enemy they're unlikely to be big fans of Stannis either. And Stannis for all we know holds a grudge against them for fighting on the "wrong" side during the Rebellion. Some kind of monkey business there seems almost inevitable.

[Nathan Stark]

The most likely outcome would have been that Tywin would be held up in the Westerlands. Kings Landing would have fallen to Stannis without Tywin reinforcing the defenders there. After such a defeat, Tywin would be ruined, his reputation as a tough minded ruthless powerhouse completely shattered. The Lannisters overall would be deprived of the ability to project royal strength and glory, not least because Joffrey, Cersei and Tyrion would be dead. The house's reputation as a force to be feared was already in serious question before the Blackwater. Losing there would be catastrophic. With Kings Landing taken by Stannis, Joffrey dead, and Robb's army running unchecked in the Westerlands, the Lannisters would have been too hard pressed to continue fighting. Very possibly other Westerlands houses formerly intimidated by the Lannisters might defect to Robb or Stannis, no longer seeing Tywin as a great threat. Regardless of whether Robb captured Tywin or not, a Lannister defeat at the Battle of the Blackwater would have dealt a very crippling blow to their prestige and power, as well as being a significant blow to them militarily. Perhaps Tywin would continue to fight on for a time, but I cannot see a way in which House Lannister could recover from such a defeat.

Would Stannis be able to hold the Iron Throne once he took it? Probably not much longer than a year, or perhaps two if we are being generous. Though his cause is righteous, the One True King has a great number of powerful enemies and very few who love him. However, Stannis could do a great deal in a short amount of time. Varys, Grand Maester Pycelle and Littlefinger would all either be heads on spikes or forced to flee Westeros in Littlefinger's case. One consequence of a Stannis victory at the Blackwater might be that a Florent is kept on as Hand of the King, in which case Stannis might not have answered the Nights Watch's call for aid. The overall factor in determining Stannis's success and longevity would be how Stannis treats the Tyrells, the Starks and their respective bannermen. These houses would need assurances that they would not be punished for their choice of alliegences during the war. How would Stannis deal with Robb, if he insisted on remaining King in the North? The smart choice would be to offer Robb military aid in the war against the Iron Born, whom Stannis is quite familiar in drubbing, in exchange for a promise by Robb to kneel and accept Stannis as King. But this is Stannis. Pride, bitterness, stubborness and vindictive childishness are as likely as Stannis acting on common sense. Who's to say, really?

While it's likely the Tyrells were hedging their bets, I believe they were headed west because they wanted to join up with Robb. He was winning his war against the Lannisters at the time of Renly's death, and he was not Stannis, and the Tyrells like winners. With House Lannister thrown into complete chaos after their defeat on the Blackwater, the Tyrells would be facing a choice between Stannis, who hates them, and Robb, who doesn't feel strongly for them one way or the other. It would seem to make more sense for them to at least hear Robb out at that point. That said, the only tangible thing Robb could offer the Tyrells would be an agreement to seek the Iron Throne himself, in a similar arrangement to what they had with Renly. Too bad Robb's already married. Plus, I don't get the sense Robb ever wanted the Iron Throne himself. So ultimately the Tyrells would probably be out of luck in that quarter. Their best bet would be to sue for peace with King Stannis. It wouldn't get them a Tyrell ass anywhere in the vicinity of the throne, but they might keep their heads.

The Starks would be in a very interesting position indeed, winning the war against the Lannisters, losing the war against the Iron Born, and with an ambigous relationship towards King Stannis. Robb probably would have declared for King Stannis back in AGoT if Stannis had announced his candidacy earlier, but there's no squirting the milk back into the udder now. Can Robb bend the knee to Stannis and still save face with his bannermen? Maybe. But the North has specific grievences against the Iron Throne. They seceeded for a reason. Robb also has commitments to the Riverlands as well. If he bends the knee to Stannis, he'd probably get help in the fight against the Ironborn, which is now his top priority. But it would come at the cost of his own kingdom, and possibly the support of some of his bannermen. But if he refuses to bend the knee, at best he would have to fight the Iron Born alone, and at worst he'd also be contending with Stannis. Robb could probably retake the North by himself if it came to it, and once in his own territory Stannis would be largely unable to get beyond Moat Cailyn, but the Riverlands would be lost pretty quickly. There are no easy choices here for Robb. One thing is certain, though. No Red Wedding. 

I doubt Doran would have any strong objections to Stannis as King. It was the Lannisters he hated, and Tywin specifically. If Stannis can offer the Martells some measure of justice for Elia and her children, Doran would probably publically accept Stannis as King. Myrcella might be a point of contention, but overall, I see little reason for the Dornish to oppose King Stannis.

The Vale might well keep to itself, though of all the great houses, the Arryns have the least to fear from Stannis. Lysa kept them out of the war and sided with none of the major factions, so a simple pledge of fealty to Stannis would probably suffice here.

Jaime is probably doomed by a Lannister defeat at Blackwater. His value as a hostage plummets if the Lannisters lose and Sansa is no longer their captive. At that point, Robb might as well safely allow the Karstarks some bloody vengeance. Sansa migh survive the Blackwater, but Ilyn Payne is instructed to kill her in case of a Lannister defeat, so her survival isn't gaurenteed. Arya is still missing, presumed dead. Bran and Rickon are still either hiding in the crypts of Winterfell, or headed North.

The Iron Born are still being led by Balon Greyjoy who is a moron.

To recap, without the Battle of the Fords, the Lannisters lose at the Blackwater and Tywin is greatly diminished. Stannis takes the Iron Throne and cleans house in Kings Landing, while the Tyrells, Starks, Martells and Arryns each face questions about whether to support Stannis or not. Jaime is probably screwed, Sansa's survival depends on escaping Ilyn Payne, and the other characters are unnafected. And the Iron are still being led by Balon Greyjoy, who is a moron.

It is always interesting to contemplate how the story might have changed but for Edmure's decisionmaking at Riverun. As I have argued above, a Stannis victory in Kings Landing, while cathartic in many ways, still comes with highly frought political concerns among everyone involved.

 

[astarkchoice]

14 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

We don't know how reliable Jacelyn's men with Tommen are, or indeed exactly what their perception of Stannis is. The Gold Cloaks don't have the best reputation for loyalty, but if Stannis has a reputation as a merciless arbiter of justice, they might fear that by handing Tommen over they're then going to end up on the block for betraying their lord (for which there is a Westerosi precedent) and to be honest is the kind of thing Stannis might do. I think it's probably 50/50 whether they try to stick with the plan and escape with Tommen, either to use him as a bargaining chip with a non-Stannis leader or to get him to safety... or whether they kill him/hand him over to Stannis.

Mind, I don't think it's necessarily a given that Stannis would execute Tommen. He's an innocent child, and he doesn't even have the "kingsblood" power which presents a threat to other kids in Stannis's care. He is an incest-abomination... but might Stannis's heart be melted by his sweet smile? Might he not be persuaded that Tommen is more useful as a hostage against Tywin than as a head on a spike?

As to the Martells, while Tywin is their main enemy they're unlikely to be big fans of Stannis either. And Stannis for all we know holds a grudge against them for fighting on the "wrong" side during the Rebellion. Some kind of monkey business there seems almost inevitable.

Id say given stannis will take kl and that victory will make most of the stormlamds and crownlamds allign with him theyd be unlikely to try and flee through that.

the goldcloaks all.sided with their lord at the time thus theyd probably be blanket pardoned by stannis (but hed def replace their officers) so yeah id say turning up with tommen will be their more likely path rather than risk miles of enemy territory

As for the golden haired  adoreable wee kitten wrangler hel be kept at court to compare with as many of roberts bastards as stannis can find to let the court see with their eyes what hes proclaimed

Whatver minor beef theyd have with stannis  for being opposite side of roberts rebelliom would pale compared to their actual hatred for tywin. Theyd probably call.off wedding and send mycella 'sand' to KL to add to stannis collection of kids to compare and doran and the viper would rethink how to get tywin and the mountain.

[Alester Florent]

Ignoring everything else, but Myrcella would be a Waters, not a Sand, if she took a bastard name.

[Alester Florent]

7 minutes ago, Nathan Stark said:

While it's likely the Tyrells were hedging their bets, I believe they were headed west because they wanted to join up with Robb. He was winning his war against the Lannisters at the time of Renly's death, and he was not Stannis, and the Tyrells like winners. With House Lannister thrown into complete chaos after their defeat on the Blackwater, the Tyrells would be facing a choice between Stannis, who hates them, and Robb, who doesn't feel strongly for them one way or the other. It would seem to make more sense for them to at least hear Robb out at that point. That said, the only tangible thing Robb could offer the Tyrells would be an agreement to seek the Iron Throne himself, in a similar arrangement to what they had with Renly. Too bad Robb's already married. Plus, I don't get the sense Robb ever wanted the Iron Throne himself. So ultimately the Tyrells would probably be out of luck in that quarter. Their best bet would be to sue for peace with King Stannis. It wouldn't get them a Tyrell ass anywhere in the vicinity of the throne, but they might keep their heads.

I hadn't really thought about this but the Tyrells' moving to negotiate with Robb makes a kind of sense, especially since Renly was openly discussing an alliance when he was killed: the same strategic considerations apply as they did when Renly was alive.

But then you don't need to send your whole army to do that. You'd expect to see someone like Loras or Garlan turn up at Riverrun to talk terms without the massive lumbering host immediately behind them, just as Robb sent Cat to negotiate with Renly. And the Tyrells may take the view (especially Olenna, if she has any input into where the army goes) that you don't bet against Tywin Lannister, and they always intended to join up with him to defend King's Landing against the obviously imminent Stannis assault.

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

Why would the Tyrells besiege Stannis anyway? At this point, the Lannisters are toast and Renly is dead. They’d have no reason to fight Stannis unless he pledges to come and try them for denying him twice. Which would be idiotic considering he can’t before that. Worst case for Stannis, they leave him to his devices to sort everything out, and would pledge to him after his ascension is an absolute certainty

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

12 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

I hadn't really thought about this but the Tyrells' moving to negotiate with Robb makes a kind of sense, especially since Renly was openly discussing an alliance when he was killed: the same strategic considerations apply as they did when Renly was alive.

But then you don't need to send your whole army to do that. You'd expect to see someone like Loras or Garlan turn up at Riverrun to talk terms without the massive lumbering host immediately behind them, just as Robb sent Cat to negotiate with Renly. And the Tyrells may take the view (especially Olenna, if she has any input into where the army goes) that you don't bet against Tywin Lannister, and they always intended to join up with him to defend King's Landing against the obviously imminent Stannis assault.

I could see Robb offering them the South. Install Mace or Willas as King of the South. The North, the Crag, and Riverlands secede, possibly the Vale as well. The Tyrells and Robb topple Stannis, hopefully rescue Sansa, marry Willas to Shireen. I suspect Dorne would sever at this point as well.

[Nathan Stark]

9 minutes ago, Adelstein said:

I hadn't really thought about this but the Tyrells' moving to negotiate with Robb makes a kind of sense, especially since Renly was openly discussing an alliance when he was killed: the same strategic considerations apply as they did when Renly was alive.

But then you don't need to send your whole army to do that. You'd expect to see someone like Loras or Garlan turn up at Riverrun to talk terms without the massive lumbering host immediately behind them, just as Robb sent Cat to negotiate with Renly. And the Tyrells may take the view (especially Olenna, if she has any input into where the army goes) that you don't bet against Tywin Lannister, and they always intended to join up with him to defend King's Landing against the obviously imminent Stannis assault.

Maybe. My read on this is that the Tyrells are hedging their bets, as always. I think if Tywin had not been delayed by the Battle of the Fords, and headed west as Robb hoped, the resulting Lannister defeat would have shown the Tyrells that he was ultimately a losing proposition. The outcome of the Blackwater was political as much as military, and if the Lannisters come out defeated and scattered, than it looks like a much safer bet against Tywin. Ollena, like Doran, plays to win.

[King_Tristifer_IV_Mudd]

1 minute ago, Nathan Stark said:

Maybe. My read on this is that the Tyrells are hedging their bets, as always. I think if Tywin had not been delayed by the Battle of the Fords, and headed west as Robb hoped, the resulting Lannister defeat would have shown the Tyrells that he was ultimately a losing proposition. The outcome of the Blackwater was political as much as military, and if the Lannisters come out defeated and scattered, than it looks like a much safer bet against Tywin. Ollena, like Doran, plays to win.

Exactly. If Robb traps Tywin, KL falls. Cersei and her kids die by poison or by the sword. Hopefully Sansa escapes that fate but we can’t be certain. Either the Tyrells cut their losses and knell to Stannis after negotiating they’d suffer no punishment for prior allegiances, or they’d go to Robb and negotiate something with him.