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UK Politics - Now is the Spring of our Discontent


Which Tyler

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2 hours ago, maarsen said:

As in Canada a new PM is expected to get a new mandate.

Why? Who is setting this expectation? It hasn’t been the case in the UK or Australia. 

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39 minutes ago, ants said:

Why? Who is setting this expectation? It hasn’t been the case in the UK or Australia. 

It was in Australia until recently though, Gillard did it because it was the expectation but then people acted like she hadn't anyway and the whole thing destroyed her despite scraping in the win. The coalition took away the message "don't call an election" and in each case it was long enough the voters got over it and now it's not the expectation anymore.

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56 minutes ago, ants said:

Why? Who is setting this expectation? It hasn’t been the case in the UK or Australia. 

Lol, in Canada new leaders of the opposition have demanded an election call, so the people can voice their opinion. Much to their shamed chagrin, as Jean Chretien trounced their ass.

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10 hours ago, karaddin said:

It was in Australia until recently though, Gillard did it because it was the expectation but then people acted like she hadn't anyway and the whole thing destroyed her despite scraping in the win. The coalition took away the message "don't call an election" and in each case it was long enough the voters got over it and now it's not the expectation anymore.

Gillard held the election in August, she'd have had to go in November anyway. It was questionable whether she held it a few months early due to needing a mandate or believing it was better timing than a few months later. 

9 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Lol, in Canada new leaders of the opposition have demanded an election call, so the people can voice their opinion. Much to their shamed chagrin, as Jean Chretien trounced their ass.

The opposition always demands an election, because that would be favourable for them. 

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1 hour ago, ants said:

The opposition always demands an election, because that would be favourable for them. 

Palpable untrue; unless you think that handing the tories a massive majority was "favourable" for Labour and Lib Dem in 2019 - the most recent GE herabouts.

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Palpable untrue; unless you think that handing the tories a massive majority was "favourable" for Labour and Lib Dem in 2019 - the most recent GE herabouts.

I think the point here is that by definition the opposition wants to get into government, so they have to ask for an election even if in some circumstances they would prefer not to have one or have a preferred timing.  Of course, they are not always right even when they have made their political calculations.  

IIRC, in reverse chronological order. BoJo called a snap election won handsomely.  May called a snap election and flopped.  Gordon Brown nearly called a snap election and regretted the decision not to do so bitterly (and the Tories later admitted they were not remotely prepared). 

For a PM in office, it's a gamble to keep something you already have so unless the fuse is burning short and you see storm clouds on the horizon, or you have a majority but a logjam, no real reason to call an election any sooner than you have to. 

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I think the point is more that there really aren't any circumstances under which the opposition can be seen to not want an immediate election. Saying you're not ready for government is electoral madness. So if a PM resigns, the opposition have to call for an election.

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4 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Just in case anyone has forgotten. Here are the promises he made in order to get elected.

He has broken every single one of them.

 

I'm not defending Starmer exactly, but has he broken all 10? The graphic has a giant red cross but no explanation and some of these are quite subjective like "effective opposition to the Tories" or "promote peace and human rights" . 

FWIW, Starmer was a top-notch human rights barrister, so I would trust him on that one unless there is compelling evidence in the other direction. 

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2 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

I'm not defending Starmer exactly, but has he broken all 10? The graphic has a giant red cross but no explanation and some of these are quite subjective like "effective opposition to the Tories" or "promote peace and human rights" . 

FWIW, Starmer was a top-notch human rights barrister, so I would trust him on that one unless there is compelling evidence in the other direction. 

Pretty much. 

Effective Opposition To The Tories. I honestly don't know anyone who thinks he's been an effective LotO. Do you? His gradually shrinking poll lead is as much about the Tories as it is his 'leadership' skills. 

Promote peace and human rights. Unless it's for the Palestinians. 

As for the rest, he's pretty much u-turned on everything. People change their minds. That's fine. But not when you're a newly elected political leader, and the things you changed your mind on are the things that got you the job in the first place.

And he doesn't own the fucking Labour Party. So all his 'my way or the highway' bullshit sticks in the throat somewhat.

 

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27 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Pretty much. 

Effective Opposition To The Tories. I honestly don't know anyone who thinks he's been an effective LotO. Do you? His gradually shrinking poll lead is as much about the Tories as it is his 'leadership' skills. 

My wife voted for BoJo in Dec. 2019 (mostly against Corbyn).  She said after watching Starmer's take-down of Boris at PMQs over partygate she would vote for him:

That's not the entirety of the job, and for sure he comes across as a clever London lawyer rather than a man of the people.  But he has seen off two PMs.  When you watch PMQs, you can see the fear in Sunak's eyes.  Sunak rarely provides a direct answer to his questions instead responding with political attacks on related topics. 

Look Starmer has a long way to go as LOTO let alone potential PM.  He seems to have a bit of a glass jaw/can't take attacks as well as he can dish them out.  But colour me sceptical there is a better alternative in the Labour party today.  And he's a much more principled and credible politician than Johnson and Truss. 

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6 hours ago, mormont said:

I think the point is more that there really aren't any circumstances under which the opposition can be seen to not want an immediate election. Saying you're not ready for government is electoral madness. So if a PM resigns, the opposition have to call for an election.

That, plus it's always a good attack to say the current government doesn't have a mandate. 

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