US Politics: They're Gunnin' 4 Us

[DMC]

Opening Day with a Judge home run AND a Trump indictment?  Pretty awesome day!

51 minutes ago, Fez said:

This is pretty much the exact thing John Edwards was charged with, and he was found not guilty on one count and had a hung jury on the other charges (and the case wasn't re-tried). If Trump is found not guilty of something that'll have enormous blowback I fear.

I am so fucking tired about the fear of "blowback."  Will he be convicted in this case?  No, probably not -- at least not for anything beyond copping a plea to a misdemeanor.  It looks like a tenuous legal argument, actually.  But does that mean he shouldn't be charged when his fixer went to prison for doing his bidding?  If that's the case, what the fuck are we even doing here?

Yes, John Edwards was found not guilty.  BY THE WAY, his political career was completely and utterly destroyed.  Getting indicted is NOT good for a politician running for office.  Full stop.  And yes, that includes Trump.  The Mueller investigation was plainly damaging to him politically - not to mention crippled his ability to govern - even though he was able to claim at the end he was "exonerated."  As was both of his impeachments, even if the Senate "exonerated" him. 

I understand it may frustrate leftists/Trump haters that it's incredibly unlikely this will result in Trump facing any real consequences - again - but to suggest this will help him "politically" due to "blowback" is simply not paying attention to what's been going on the last seven years.  Rather, it's another reminder - and consistent reminder that's not going to go away any time soon - for the 55 to 60 percent of the electorate that was tired of his first presidency and doesn't what a second one for why that's the case.

Much more importantly, there's the fundamental fact that not prosecuting fascists because you're worried about "blowback" due to their their threats of violence before they're even indicted is entirely undemocratic in its own right.

[Tywin et al.]

34 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Hopefully.  But a lot of that may or may not hinge in the reaction to this, no? 

It shouldn't slow down Georgia or the Federal cases, but it may give pause...though I say speed them up. 

I don't think it will. Idk what the timeline for this indictment is, but I'd be more worried about them waiting too long to charge him, he gets off and then they get cold feet. 

[Mindwalker]

I'm looking forward to Lindsay Graham's public response/ meltdown.

Edited March 30 by Mindwalker

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I am waiting for Georgia and Fani Willis to come through.

C'mon Fani, don't let that useless lump Bragg beat you to a conviction.

Kemp is a desantis supporter and that’s why the Georgian Republican Party is having a republican prosecuter go after him.

Spread the word.

[Varysblackfyre321]

3 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

I'm looking forward to Lindsay Graham's public response.

Honestly I think he and most of the Republican establishment are elated—because they’re intelligent to know the chances of them taking back the presidency with trump is marketabily lower.

[Mindwalker]

2 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Honestly I think he and most of the Republican establishment are elated—because they’re intelligent to know the chances of them taking back the presidency with trump is marketabily lower.

Idk, he must fear to be indicted in Georgia himself. Also, he's publicly a great T supporter; I expect some unhinged, slightly dishevelled/ drunk performances, including tears and threats. And I'm here for it.

Edited March 30 by Mindwalker

[Varysblackfyre321]

8 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

expect some unhinged, slightly dishevelled/ drunk performances, including tears and threats. And I'm here for it.

I’ll agree he’ll do it but secretly he like most republicans in high office is going to be relived.

At least Desantmonious is happy.

[Fez]

43 minutes ago, DMC said:

Opening Day with a Judge home run AND a Trump indictment?  Pretty awesome day!

I am so fucking tired about the fear of "blowback."  Will he be convicted in this case?  No, probably not -- at least not for anything beyond copping a plea to a misdemeanor.  It looks like a tenuous legal argument, actually.  But does that mean he shouldn't be charged when his fixer went to prison for doing his bidding?  If that's the case, what the fuck are we even doing here?

Yes, John Edwards was found not guilty.  BY THE WAY, his political career was completely and utterly destroyed.  Getting indicted is NOT good for a politician running for office.  Full stop.  And yes, that includes Trump.  The Mueller investigation was plainly damaging to him politically - not to mention crippled his ability to govern - even though he was able to claim at the end he was "exonerated."  As was both of his impeachments, even if the Senate "exonerated" him. 

I understand it may frustrate leftists/Trump haters that it's incredibly unlikely this will result in Trump facing any real consequences - again - but to suggest this will help him "politically" due to "blowback" is simply not paying attention to what's been going on the last seven years.  Rather, it's another reminder - and consistent reminder that's not going to go away any time soon - for the 55 to 60 percent of the electorate that was tired of his first presidency and doesn't what a second one for why that's the case.

Much more importantly, there's the fundamental fact that not prosecuting fascists because you're worried about "blowback" due to their their threats of violence before they're even indicted is entirely undemocratic in its own right.

John Edwards career was dead long before he was indicted. So that's a strawman. And Cohen shouldn't have gone to prison for it either, that basically was weaponization of the justice system by Trump. 

I think you're extremely wrong about Mueller. I think Republicans rallying around him due to it was the only thing keeping him afloat when he was losing support over the ACA repeal fiasco. And I think this will help in in the Republican primary now. And if Trump's the nominee, sure I think he's weaker than most other Republicans, but any nominee has a shot.

Also, I am entirely onboard with prosecuting fascists for being fascists. It's weird, hard-to-explain campaign violations that I'm less interested in.

[Kalnestk Oblast]

46 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yes, John Edwards was found not guilty.  BY THE WAY, his political career was completely and utterly destroyed.  Getting indicted is NOT good for a politician running for office.  Full stop.  And yes, that includes Trump.  The Mueller investigation was plainly damaging to him politically - not to mention crippled his ability to govern - even though he was able to claim at the end he was "exonerated."  As was both of his impeachments, even if the Senate "exonerated" him. 

I agreed with everything else you said, but this part I think you need a reality check. John Edwards was a standard Democratic politician. Scandals like this kill those. Heck, scandals even less powerful kill democratic politicians and even some Republican politicians all the time. 

But a scandal like this for Trump? I don't know that it is reasonable to say that it'll hurt him. Gonna Godwin this thread right now and point out how jailing Hitler did not hurt him in the least politically and made him in many ways more attractive. There is a point where you're running as the anti-government person and being indicted makes you more genuine in that respect. 

It's not clear how damaging the second impeachment was to him (as it happened after he lost the election) but I think we can all agree that if the first impeachment or the Mueller probe were damaging it was not significantly so. And maybe that's okay! Maybe a small amount of damage is all that's needed. But it ain't gonna kill Trump's political career. Especially from a New York judicial system he's already painted as the most biased and corrupt in the country.

[Tywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

And I think this will help in in the Republican primary now. And if Trump's the nominee, sure I think he's weaker than most other Republicans, but any nominee has a shot.

This will absolutely help him in the primary and he's going to make bank off of it. The more interesting question is how will the more series cases impact him if he's indicted. Those could actually sink him in the primary.

Regardless, this is not good news in any way for Trump if he makes it to the GE.

Quote

Also, I am entirely onboard with prosecuting fascists for being fascists. It's weird, hard-to-explain campaign violations that I'm less interested in.

Not really. Don't get lost in the details and just establish a long pattern of criminal behavior with a side of, "Hey, remember when he was bribing a porn star because he was fucking her while his wife was home with their newborn and he did this all to deceive YOU."

Edited March 31 by Tywin et al.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

John Edwards was a standard Democratic politician. Scandals like this kill those. Heck, scandals even less powerful kill democratic politicians and even some Republican politicians all the time. 

I was responding to the example Fez used.  Do I think this indictment will necessarily "kill" Trump politically?  Of course not.  The overall thrust was to emphasize I don't think it will help helm.  Now, do I think it will hurt him?  Yes, but likely only marginally so -- in how I described at the end of that post.

2 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

Gonna Godwin this thread right now and point out how jailing Hitler did not hurt him in the least politically and made him in many ways more attractive.

Was waiting for this, didn't expect it to be you.  The Beer Hall Putsch was in November 1923.  Hitler published Mein Kampf in 1925-6.  He became Chancellor in 1933.  That timeframe doesn't really relate to being indicted for giving hush money to an adult film star -- let alone Trump writing a book in prison. 

More importantly, Mein Kampf made Hitler a national figure.  Trump already is and has been for a long time.  His victimhood is tired, and the American people are very tired of it.  They have demonstrated this empirically in three straight election cycles.  The comparison of Trump to Hitler - at least in this context - ranges from irrelevant to absurd.

8 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

I think we can all agree that if the first impeachment or the Mueller probe were damaging it was not significantly so.

Oh I think they were "significantly" damaging, sure.  (Albeit I suppose we all have different definitions of significant.)  He lost reelection.  Wasn't it you that kept on harping on how rare that was in this day and age?  And during a national crisis to boot.  When plenty of Republican-leaning voters turned out and split their tickets - voting for GOP nominees down-ballot, but voting against Trump.

[DMC]

16 minutes ago, Fez said:

I think Republicans rallying around him due to it was the only thing keeping him afloat when he was losing support over the ACA repeal fiasco.

Er, huh?  So you're talking summer 2017 when McCain put his thumb down?  Yeah, I was thinking, like, the years after that when the Mueller investigation continually bogged him down with the periodic reports of all the people they were convicting.  And BTW, Cohen's prosecution was not a "weaponization" of the Trump DOJ.  That's..a shocking misunderstanding of Cohen's prosecution.

As for this helping Trump in the primaries -- maybe right now.  We'll see in the long run.  I frankly don't really give a shit as long as the alternative is DeSantis.

[Jaxom 1974]

DeSantis just got pants by Disney. Why are we still taking him seriously as a likely Presidential candidate? Simply because he's an alternative to Trump? Republicans should be laughing at that guy...but then again, they're Republicans...

[Jaxom 1974]

 

 

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Why are we still taking him seriously as a likely Presidential candidate? Simply because he's an alternative to Trump?

We didn't want to take Trump seriously as a likely presidential candidate for a very long time - and rightly so.  That didn't turn out so well.  Good to keep an open mind when it comes to the GOP primary.

[Jaxom 1974]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

We didn't want to take Trump seriously as a likely presidential candidate for a very long time - and rightly so.  That didn't turn out so well.  Good to keep an open mind when it comes to the GOP primary.

Yes. Yes. But there feels like there is some sort of difference here. Trump was looker on as a joke. Rightly so. Except the media took his celebrity and made it a thing. And then that dark, hidden, unspoken of part of the Republican bade realized that guy would do and sat anything to win and they ran with it because he legitimized them. And then it was too late for the rest of us.

DeSantis is being shown, again and again, that he's not a very good politician and he's not even any kind of national celebrity. That mainstream, a loose term to be certain, Republicans think he's the answer to Trump? He can't even fight against a company like Disney correctly...and they think he can stand up to Trump?  

But regardless, you're correct. No complacency. That I agree with.

[Kalnestk Oblast]

22 minutes ago, DMC said:

Oh I think they were "significantly" damaging, sure.  (Albeit I suppose we all have different definitions of significant.)  He lost reelection.  Wasn't it you that kept on harping on how rare that was in this day and age?  And during a national crisis to boot.  When plenty of Republican-leaning voters turned out and split their tickets - voting for GOP nominees down-ballot, but voting against Trump.

I think that it is rare that he lost the election - but I don't think that you can reasonably put most of that weight on the damage caused by Mueller or by the first impeachment. My suspicion is that most of that weight was borne by Covid sucking, and as a secondary factor having a fairly good amount of turnout. That said there were plenty of reasons to be angry at Trump in November of 2020; I don't know that any one was particularly or significantly damaging. One way that you can judge this is by seeing what kind of attacks Biden and democrats were doing - and it wasn't just about the impeachment. It was as a rule about something nebulous around 'character' and while I'm sure impeachment factored in there, it certainly was not the only thing and it might not have been even a major factor. Was that more important than the 'on both sides' statement after Charlottesville? Was his behavior with George Floyd more important? Was his debate behavior more important? At some point I think it's not reasonable to say any one thing was crucial or significant in harming Trump. 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

DeSantis is being shown, again and again, that he's not a very good politician and he's not even any kind of national celebrity.

Trump's not a very good politician either.  Don't get me wrong - I have plenty of doubts about DeSantis.  But he knows how to control the media -- and even literally try to change the relationship between government and media through certain legislation he's proposed -- and he knows how to keep the base fired up.  

1 minute ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

but I don't think that you can reasonably put most of that weight on the damage caused by Mueller or by the first impeachment.

I wasn't putting "most of the weight" on it, I just said both the Mueller investigation AND the impeachments hurt him politically rather than resulted in "blowback" that somehow helped politically.  You're picking nits.

[Kalnestk Oblast]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

I wasn't putting "most of the weight" on it, I just said both the Mueller investigation AND the impeachments hurt him politically rather than resulted in "blowback" that somehow helped politically.  You're picking nits.

I guess? I said that it wasn't significant; you said it was. 

In any case I agree with you about the blowback. Even if that were an issue that we should care about it still should not ever preclude not taking action. Might have to be real careful, make sure you're double and triple checking your work and aren't pulling him over for a tail light, but people like Trump have two modes - either they're getting away with as much lawbreaking as they can, or they're bitching about not getting away with it no matter what it is. There is never going to be appeasement. The best you can hope for is following the rules and not getting caught up in something extra stupid. 

[Tywin et al.]

23 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

DeSantis just got pants by Disney. Why are we still taking him seriously as a likely Presidential candidate? Simply because he's an alternative to Trump? Republicans should be laughing at that guy...but then again, they're Republicans...

Because he's the most likely alternative. That said, he's stepped on every rake possible in the last few weeks and the FL legislature might make him totally unelectable in the GE. 

22 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

 

 

Not to be a downer, but different outlets are reporting all kinds of numbers. I think it's safe to assume he's going to face a lot of counts, but it's best to wait until we see the actually charging documents.

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

and he knows how to keep the base fired up.  

True, but he's a wet blanket when it comes to charisma. For all of Trump's faults, he was entertaining as hell. Ron is just cringe.