Is F/Aegon headed for a Tragic End?

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

If the bank fails and the Braavosi economy collapses, they will have no money to pay sailors or outfit ships.

Promise of loot usually works though. And if Pentos is to blame these people may well attack Pentos of their own accord. Also Iron Bank going down hurts everyone in the region not just Braavos. They have been a part of the economy for hundreds of years. If this is really Illyrio's plan, which I doubt, he risks massive collateral damage. It is a more stupid plan than Alec Trevelyan's plan to EMP the Bank of England in Goldeneye.

[BlackLightning]

On 3/7/2023 at 9:45 PM, GZ Bloodraven said:

I think Varys wants the right people to think he is a Blackfyre, specifically the Golden Company and Illyrio (and the readers), but he is actually Rhaegar's son.

Why on Earth would he want that.

It would be better for everyone to think that he is a Targaryen prince than it would be for only 75% of people to think that. Because why allow people who think he is Rhaegar's son the opportunity to have their belief shaken by people who believe that he is a Blackfyre. And people within the Golden Company are loud.

In any case, such back-and-forth doubts really only serves to hurt Aegon

On 3/11/2023 at 2:14 AM, SeanF said:

IMHO, the problem for fAegon will be his supporters conducting a bloodbath of anyone associated with the old regime, in the capital, once they seize it.

I’d expect some of the worst scenes of cruelty in the entire series to ensue.

No doubt.

However, the only problem here is that -- outside of the Small Council, Margaery, the Merryweathers, Cersei and Cersei's children -- we don't know anything about the supporters or associates of the old Lannister-Baratheon-Tyrell regime. From what I have been reading, no one in the city really likes the Lannisters or the pseudo-Baratheon kings. They like the Tyrells but...meh

I don't know. I 100% agree with you. I actually am beginning to think that the people of KL will betray Cersei and open the city gates for Aegon...only for Connington to decide to sack and/or burn the city...which would then trigger the wildfire caches.

That being said, I'm not sure if it's going to be the worst scenes of cruelty in the entire series. How can it be when most of the people being slaughtered or raped have only appeared once or twice on page? We still have Euron to contend with.

 

[Loose Bolt]

22 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If the bank fails and the Braavosi economy collapses, they will have no money to pay sailors or outfit ships. They will have enough to deal with quelling the riots and breakdown of social order in their own city, let alone patrol the seas. There is no Iron Bank or Braavosi government to make Pentos or Westeros or anyone else pay for anything. They are gone.

That potential collapse would take some time. But Braavosi could launch raid to Pentos in weeks and if that raid would be successful they would have enough money to pay all their bills. In fact if Sealord or Iron Bank suspects that Team Blackfyre are plotting against them they would have to launch that raid when they still have working navy.

Totally another thing is that as soon Iron Bank finds out that there is man who claims to be Aegon VI they will send an emissary who will ask simple question "Dude. Where is our money?" If answer to that question is something else that he is happy to pay back that debt his invasion will fail bc Braavos and Iron Bank will smash Golden Company and anybody foolish enough to ally with him b4 Team BF have even chance to secure his crown. There is even a possibility that some mercs of GC company will betray and sell him to IB just to make some money. After all there is no way that Sealord and IB would allow anyone who would fail to pay back national debt to sit on Iron Throne.

So A VI either will promise to pay back that debt or Golden Company will fail again in their invasion to Westeros and he will be known as another failed pretender for Iron Throne.

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Promise of loot usually works though. And if Pentos is to blame these people may well attack Pentos of their own accord. Also Iron Bank going down hurts everyone in the region not just Braavos. They have been a part of the economy for hundreds of years. If this is really Illyrio's plan, which I doubt, he risks massive collateral damage. It is a more stupid plan than Alec Trevelyan's plan to EMP the Bank of England in Goldeneye.

If all Braavos can promise is loot, then the their sailors would do better to pirate and keep all the loot for themselves, not share it with Braavos. 

Nobody knows Pentos is to blame. That's the beauty of it. The Iron Bank is to blame because it overextended itself and failed to consider the political dynamics of the loan recipient. Illyrio is the invisible hand.

The Iron Bank going down hurts everyone in the region except for the person who knows it's going down and can stockpile cash, food and other goods ahead of time. Illyrio will emerge as the wealthiest person on either side of the Narrow Sea, in perfect position to dominate all trade for the foreseeable future. When George Soros almost crashed the bank of England by shorting the British pound, everyone else was hurt and he walked off with millions.

 

[Craving Peaches]

11 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The Iron Bank going down hurts everyone in the region except for the person who knows it's going down and can stockpile cash, food and other goods ahead of time. Illyrio will emerge as the wealthiest person on either side of the Narrow Sea, in perfect position to dominate all trade for the foreseeable future.

Except there won't be any trade to dominate because it will have crashed and burned along with the bank...Value of currency would decrease...And if everything goes to hell but Illyrio conveniently has stockpiles people will wonder, they aren't stupid or blind...Actually it paints a huge target on Illyrio's back.

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Loose Bolt said:

That potential collapse would take some time. But Braavosi could launch raid to Pentos in weeks and if that raid would be successful they would have enough money to pay all their bills. In fact if Sealord or Iron Bank suspects that Team Blackfyre are plotting against them they would have to launch that raid when they still have working navy.

Totally another thing is that as soon Iron Bank finds out that there is man who claims to be Aegon VI they will send an emissary who will ask simple question "Dude. Where is our money?" If answer to that question is something else that he is happy to pay back that debt his invasion will fail bc Braavos and Iron Bank will smash Golden Company and anybody foolish enough to ally with him b4 Team BF have even chance to secure his crown. There is even a possibility that some mercs of GC company will betray and sell him to IB just to make some money. After all there is no way that Sealord and IB would allow anyone who would fail to pay back national debt to sit on Iron Throne.

So A VI either will promise to pay back that debt or Golden Company will fail again in their invasion to Westeros and he will be known as another failed pretender for Iron Throne.

No, it won't take time. Look at how fast SVB went from powerhouse to basketcase. A run can wipe out the bank in a day. Once that happens, all hell breaks loose in Braavos and they are no position to launch raids on anyone. They have no money to pay their bills because the top bank officials made off with whatever was left in the vaults.

No one suspects anyone is plotting against them. The bank is doing this to itself.

Like I said, if fAegon agrees to honor the loan, which he won't because it was wracked up by the men who murdered his family and stole his crown, then Illyrio can just kill him.

Lol, if the Sealord and IB won't allow anyone who won't pay back their loan to sit the Iron Throne, then why is Tommen still king with Cersei as regent? Why isn't Stannis sitting the throne? Why is fAegon even in a position to claim it? The IB does not rule the world. If it wants it's money it has to find a champion who can successfully subdue at least six of the seven great houses, including Casterly Rock and the Eyrie, all of which will take more money and more money and more money, with no guarantee of success. Stannis is far more likely to die in the attempt that succeed. And when that happens, the bank is out of luck. There is no one else to back because, again, Westeros is not like Essos where anyone with enough money and mmuscle can become the new triarch or archon.

So no, the GC will not fall, the bank will not get its money back . . . if this plan works. The only wildcard now is Dany.

[John Suburbs]

7 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Except there won't be any trade to dominate because it will have crashed and burned along with the bank...Value of currency would decrease...And if everything goes to hell but Illyrio conveniently has stockpiles people will wonder, they aren't stupid or blind...Actually it paints a huge target on Illyrio's back.

Nonsense, there will be plenty of trade. People still need food, fuel, textiles, plus there will be legions of desperate people in the burned out Riverlands who would be more than willing to sell themselves, or their children, into slaver rather than starve to death.

Um, Illyrio is not going to announce his triumph for all the world. The bank created its own mess. He simply steps in amid the chaos in Braavos, slowly taking over trade routes, while the Prince of Pentos, whoever that is, declares their new sovereignty -- and Braavos can't do anything about it because they can't enforce the treaty anymore.. 

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Nonsense, there will be plenty of trade.

There will be an Essos wide economic meltdown if the IB collapses as you suggest because they are one of the pillars of the economy in Essos, part of the commercial and financial fabric for hundreds of years, so at the very least trade would be reduced. It would not increase. People being desperate drives prices up, if Bank collapses then prices go up more, people will not be able to afford to buy these things aside from the very wealthy etc.

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

People still need food, fuel, textiles, plus there will be legions of desperate people in the burned out Riverlands who would be more than willing to sell themselves, or their children, into slaver rather than starve to death.

People in Westeros despise slavery and it is illegal there.

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Um, Illyrio is not going to announce his triumph for all the world.

He doesn't have to. If the bank collapses and everyone else is haemorrhaging money and Illyrio, Magister of Pentos, who is noticeably pro-Slavery (he mentions it at the party/meeting with Khal Drogo) and not a fan of the treaty with Braavos, happens to have all this stuff stockpiled and seemingly in the perfect position to profit, plus ties to the new regime in Westeros...Plus how many people does he have working on this plan? Someone could/would spill.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

There will be an Essos wide economic meltdown if the IB collapses as you suggest because they are one of the pillars of the economy in Essos, part of the commercial and financial fabric for hundreds of years, so at the very least trade would be reduced. It would not increase. People being desperate drives prices up, if Bank collapses then prices go up more, people will not be able to afford to buy these things aside from the very wealthy etc.

People in Westeros despise slavery and it is illegal there.

He doesn't have to. If the bank collapses and everyone else is haemorrhaging money and Illyrio, Magister of Pentos, who is noticeably pro-Slavery (he mentions it at the party/meeting with Khal Drogo) and not a fan of the treaty with Braavos, happens to have all this stuff stockpiled and seemingly in the perfect position to profit, plus ties to the new regime in Westeros...Plus how many people does he have working on this plan? Someone could/would spill.

Theres so many logical flaws alone with this ilryrio crashing the world economy theory but yet another one is the planetos greatest spy network isnt varys or lfs or cerseis...its the faceless.mens! They simply arent gonna allow the IB to collapse and/or slavery to come back to large swathes of the world

[Alester Florent]

3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

He doesn't have to. If the bank collapses and everyone else is haemorrhaging money and Illyrio, Magister of Pentos, who is noticeably pro-Slavery (he mentions it at the party/meeting with Khal Drogo) and not a fan of the treaty with Braavos, happens to have all this stuff stockpiled and seemingly in the perfect position to profit, plus ties to the new regime in Westeros...Plus how many people does he have working on this plan? Someone could/would spill.

While I'm not fully sold on this theory I do think it makes a kind of sense, and the story about the collapse of the Rogare bank could be some kind of foreshadowing for it.

One of the merits of this plan is that you wouldn't need too many people to be actually "in on it" to the extent of letting them in on the end goal. Illyrio just needs to provide support to people to do stuff that they wanted to do anyway because it's in their own interest and give them the occasional nudge in the right direction, and then when it all falls into place it brings down the IB.

It would also help to explain why Illyrio is sponsoring a Targaryen restoration when he ostensibly has no ties to the dynasty or interest in them.

You don't even need Varys in on the plan per se (although he probably is). Assuming Varys is a genuine Targ loyalist, and the friendship between the two is genuine, Illyrio can help Varys with his plan to restore the Targs apparently out of affection while it actually furthers Illyrio's underlying scheme.

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

While I'm not fully sold on this theory I do think it makes a kind of sense

I think the collapse of the bank would be theoretically possible but I don't buy Illyrio wanting it unless he fails to see it will hurt him as much as everyone else. And I am not convinced by his whole ulterior motive being a divided Westeros which is an easier target for slave raids. If this were so we would have heard about more slave raids when Westeros was divided. I also think the IB and FM are closely connected. And I really think the Bank has a failsafe or two, they have been in business for hundreds of years, as opposed to the Rogare bank, which was only in business for a few years, they are not connected to one specific family. And just because Illyrio tells Aegon not to repay doesn't mean he will Aegon is developing a mind of his own, Illyio supporting a 'Targaryen' restoration is I think better supported by the 'Aegon is a Blackfyre and Serra's son' theory, which isn't foolproof either but I find it more plausible. Because there is no positive indication that LF is working with Illyrio. The only 'evidence' is that there's no evidence against it. I am not convinced.

[astarkchoice]

19 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Except there won't be any trade to dominate because it will have crashed and burned along with the bank...Value of currency would decrease...And if everything goes to hell but Illyrio conveniently has stockpiles people will wonder, they aren't stupid or blind...Actually it paints a huge target on Illyrio's back.

Yep theres loadsof issues thete

Hes too small a.player to mass enough goods to become such a player anyway, pentos has no protection to keeps his supplies should shit go  all 'mad max'  and finaly should somehow the IB collapse  theres smaller banks to fill the gap!

Edited March 15, 2023 by astarkchoice

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

There will be an Essos wide economic meltdown if the IB collapses as you suggest because they are one of the pillars of the economy in Essos, part of the commercial and financial fabric for hundreds of years, so at the very least trade would be reduced. It would not increase. People being desperate drives prices up, if Bank collapses then prices go up more, people will not be able to afford to buy these things aside from the very wealthy etc.

People in Westeros despise slavery and it is illegal there.

He doesn't have to. If the bank collapses and everyone else is haemorrhaging money and Illyrio, Magister of Pentos, who is noticeably pro-Slavery (he mentions it at the party/meeting with Khal Drogo) and not a fan of the treaty with Braavos, happens to have all this stuff stockpiled and seemingly in the perfect position to profit, plus ties to the new regime in Westeros...Plus how many people does he have working on this plan? Someone could/would spill.

The economic fallout will be severe, no doubt. But at the end of the day, people still need to eat, they still need clothes, the economy will muddle along until the dust settles, just like it did after the Rogare bank collapsed (which was wealthier and more powerful than the IB), just like our world did after 1929. And since Illyrio is the one who orchestrated it, he is now the wealthiest man in the known world, with the capital to fund all trade and start his own bank, while Braavos is in shambles. The only people who are directly impacted by all of this are those who had all their money in the IB, which will be mostly Braavosi. By this logic, then no lord would ever depose a king, no one would ever take down a triarch or an archon, no plitical party would ever sieze power from another . . . All these things produce economic and political instability -- except for the new person in charge. 

Give people a choice between slavery and starvation and see how quickly they choose slavery.

Any number of wealthy merchants, traders, magistrates all throughout the free cities hates Braavos, favors slavery, and all the rest. And mentioning in private that he is pro-slavery (which I'm not sure he does, but I'll take your word for it), is hardly announcing it to the world. Publicly, Illyrio owns no slaves, nor does anyone else in Braavos. Nor does he ever say anything against the treaty. No one is going to know what he has stockpiled within his manse. Nobody knows he's the one behind the IB meltdown, and he is not the only one in a position to profit. It will be years before all of this comes to fruition, and it is eminently plausible that he was merely the one who took advantage of a situation not of his own making.

Right now, only Illyrio and Littlefinger need to know what is really going on. Even his proxy depositors don't need to know the full scheme, just that they will lose their money if they don't withdraw before anyone else does.

So sorry, but this endless series of hyprotheticals do not overrule the basic facts: if the Iron Bank goes down, so does the Braavosi economy, and that can only be good for Pentos and Illyrio in particular, even as countless others suffer.

 

 

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

So sorry, but this endless series of hyprotheticals do not overrule the basic facts: if the Iron Bank goes down, so does the Braavosi economy, and that can only be good for Pentos and Illyrio in particular, even as countless others suffer.

Your entire theory is based on a series of hypotheticals. If Illyrio is plotting to bring down the Bank. If Littlefinger is in on the plan. If Illyrio has stockpiled goods and cash. If Aegon listens to Illyrio and refuses to repay the Bank. If the bank doesn't have a failsafe in place. If people start mass withdrawals. If the collapse of the Bank means that Braavos can't just use other assets like wealth they have on hand to pay soldiers to raid Pentos. If Illyrio escapes the economic fallout. If no one realises Illyrio was linked to the crash. If the Seven Kingdoms fall back into Seven Kingdoms. If people allow slavery...

Also, it is not necessarily good for Pentos, because they do trade with Braavos as well. And, if the Seven Kingdoms are vulnerable to slavery when separate, why do we never hear about slave raids when they were separate? How do you know Illyrio has stockpiled stuff? Where is the evidence that he's working with Littlefinger? Why would Illyrio be the wealthiest man in the world just because he did this? What about Qarth and Yi Ti? What about the fact that Daenerys is poised to smash the whole slave trade?

[Loose Bolt]

On 3/14/2023 at 6:09 PM, John Suburbs said:

No, it won't take time. Look at how fast SVB went from powerhouse to basketcase. A run can wipe out the bank in a day. Once that happens, all hell breaks loose in Braavos and they are no position to launch raids on anyone. They have no money to pay their bills because the top bank officials made off with whatever was left in the vaults.

The reason why SVB collapsed so quickly was internet. Or customers of IB cannot use computers to move their money. But they would have to travel to Braavos. Besides all money is metal not bytes or bills. So moving large sums is neither easy nor safe.

 

On 3/14/2023 at 6:09 PM, John Suburbs said:

Like I said, if fAegon agrees to honor the loan, which he won't because it was wracked up by the men who murdered his family and stole his crown, then Illyrio can just kill him.

Assuming that Illyrio outlives fA. After all if Iron Bank suspects that he is plotting against them Illyrio will be killed and replaced by a FM wearing his face who will make sure that debt is paid. Or there is a possibility that IB will get back their money when fake Illyrio pays that debt.

Besides if IB is really desperate they could do same thing that emperors of Rome did when they needed more cash. Or they killed some rich people and kept their money.

On 3/14/2023 at 5:49 PM, John Suburbs said:

When George Soros almost crashed the bank of England by shorting the British pound, everyone else was hurt and he walked off with millions.

 

Bank of England to my knowledge does not have any connections to active Death Cult. But Iron Bank almost certainly has access to some fanatical assassins who might not like idea that somebody is danger to their bank.

[Craving Peaches]

35 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

Bank of England to my knowledge does not have any connections to active Death Cult.

Well, actually I think that -

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Your entire theory is based on a series of hypotheticals. If Illyrio is plotting to bring down the Bank. If Littlefinger is in on the plan. If Illyrio has stockpiled goods and cash. If Aegon listens to Illyrio and refuses to repay the Bank. If the bank doesn't have a failsafe in place. If people start mass withdrawals. If the collapse of the Bank means that Braavos can't just use other assets like wealth they have on hand to pay soldiers to raid Pentos. If Illyrio escapes the economic fallout. If no one realises Illyrio was linked to the crash. If the Seven Kingdoms fall back into Seven Kingdoms. If people allow slavery...

Also, it is not necessarily good for Pentos, because they do trade with Braavos as well. And, if the Seven Kingdoms are vulnerable to slavery when separate, why do we never hear about slave raids when they were separate? How do you know Illyrio has stockpiled stuff? Where is the evidence that he's working with Littlefinger? Why would Illyrio be the wealthiest man in the world just because he did this? What about Qarth and Yi Ti? What about the fact that Daenerys is poised to smash the whole slave trade?

All theories are like that. If Rhaegar did really run off with Lyanna, if the promise really was about Jon, and Young Griff really is fAegon . . .

And sorry, but the collapse of Braavos would be nothing but good for Pentos. They regain their autonomy, can raise their own army again, start dealing in slaves . . . and all the ports of Westeros will no longer see Braavosi cogs in their harbors, creating an ideal situation for Penoshi traders to expand their business.

I'm not talking about slave raids. I'm talking about desperate, starving people selling themselves or their children into slavery to survive. This already happens in Westeros, see Jorah Mormont.

The evidence that he is working with Littlefinger is as I've already laid out: Petyr's backstory, his moves in GoT and beyond, the fact that Illyrio doesn't care one wit that Petyr is the one blind spot in the spy network that he has given to Varys. It's just as much evidence, if not more, than there is for RLJ.

Tyrion sees quite a lot in Illyrio's manse:

"Casks of wine and ale . . . more than enough drink to see a thirsty dwarf safely through the night."

"There was enough wine to keep him drunk for a hundred years, sweet reds from the Reach and sour reds from Dorne, pale Pentoshi ambers, the green nectar of Myr, three-score casks of Arbor gold, even wines from the fabled east, from Qarth, Yi-Ti and Asshai by the Shadow."

And that's just one room. 

But I never said there was text to prove any of this, just that is the logical thing to do, and it counters your argument that the collapse would ruin him. It won't, because he knows it's coming, just like 1929 didn't ruin Joseph Kennedy -- it made him one of the wealthiest men in the world and allowed him to put his son in the White House.

Dany is the wild card in all of this. She if Stannis and fAegon go, she is the only one who could preserve the kingdom. And her disruption of the slave trade only hastens the bank's demise. Any trader who owes the Iron Bank and depends on even a portion of his income to the slave trade will have trouble paying it back, which weakens the bank's profits at a time when it needs them the most.

But if you don't buy it, then you don't buy it. No sense beating your head against a wall trying to prove it's not true. There is plenty to conclude that it is. We'll just have to wait and see.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

The reason why SVB collapsed so quickly was internet. Or customers of IB cannot use computers to move their money. But they would have to travel to Braavos. Besides all money is metal not bytes or bills. So moving large sums is neither easy nor safe.

 

Bank of England to my knowledge does not have any connections to active Death Cult. But Iron Bank almost certainly has access to some fanatical assassins who might not like idea that somebody is danger to their bank.

Whatever the reason, it collapsed because depositors no longer trusted it with their money. In Braavos, there is no deposit insurance, no FDCI, no way to get your money back when a bank fails. The only thing a bank has is trust, and when it's the Iron Bank, which always gets its due, that trust is very high -- until something happens to undermine it, like the bank suddenly not getting its due.

Yes, the money is metal, and the Iron Bank's money is, guess what, iron. Not gold or silver or even copper, but iron. It is the only place we know of that uses a proxy currency backed by the faith and credit of the Iron Bank. So for many people, mostly the poor, even the coins they have in their hands will be worthless in the face of sudden a dramatic price spikes and shortages of food, wood and all the other things they need to keep themselves and their families alive -- even the soldiers who man the defenses and the sailors who patrol the seas.

Quote

Assuming that Illyrio outlives fA. After all if Iron Bank suspects that he is plotting against them Illyrio will be killed and replaced by a FM wearing his face who will make sure that debt is paid. Or there is a possibility that IB will get back their money when fake Illyrio pays that debt.

Besides if IB is really desperate they could do same thing that emperors of Rome did when they needed more cash. Or they killed some rich people and kept their money.

Of course Illyrio could die at any time. Valar Morghulis. But by that logic no one would ever do anything ever, because they might die. The Iron Bank does not suspect anything. Why would they? Illyrio owes no debt to the bank.

Just go around murdering people and taking their money, that's a great way for a bank to operate. I'm sure the wealthy of Braavos would have no problem watching bank managers carting away wagons of gold from their neighbor who just suddenly and mysteriously died. Talk about making stuff up.

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Bank of England to my knowledge does not have any connections to active Death Cult. But Iron Bank almost certainly has access to some fanatical assassins who might not like idea that somebody is danger to their bank.

The BoE example was to refute the ridiculous notion that no one would try to crash a bank because the economic turmoil would harm them as well. That is obviously not the case, as the history of banking shows over and over again.

But even if it did have a team of assassins, killing the orchestrator of their demise does nothing. Their gold is gone. It is not coming back.

[Nevets]

@John Suburbs I am not entirely clear what your theory is, though I think it is something like: Aegon renounces Crown debt, which results in the failure of the Iron Bank, which results in an economic depression, which Illyrio somehow profits off of (stockpiling supplies apparently).  This helps bring about slavery in Westeros, which Illyrio further profits from.  What'd I miss?

This relies on a long series of assumptions that have minimal to non-existent textual support, and appear unlikely in any event.

1. Aegon renounces Crown debt.  This would cut the Crown off from capital markets.  Bankers may be greedy; they're not stupid.  They won't extend any more loans until payment is negotiated.  I can see a possible haircut, but not a total revocation.

2. That this non-payment would bring down the Iron Bank.  Westeros is the center of our story.  To Essos, it is a backwater.  We've been given no reason to believe that the loss of the Crown debt would be an existential threat.  The bank has a very hardball reputation, so their pressuring KL merchants and sending an envoy to Stannis are probably pressure tactics as much as anything.  Stannis is an obvious Plan B.  Plan A is repayment.  But given Westeros's (lack of) importance, I seriously doubt not getting paid would make them broke.  They have a very large loan book.

3. An economic depression would hurt everybody, Free Cities most of all.  Yes, there would be some trade in necessities, but only the minimum people can get away with, and nobody is getting rich off that.

4.  I fail to understand the bit about the iron coin.  Braavos runs on gold and silver.  The iron coin is most likely small change, the equivalent of copper in Westeros.  Its loss could cause an equivalent of a currency shortage.  Those aren't fun, but won't bring down the economy.

5. Westeros despises slavery.  Never in history have they sold their own people.  Jorah was an exception, and he had to run for his life.

ETA: George Soros caused the Bank of England to collapse?  I must have missed that on my news feed. 

That the Iron Bank may take a heavy loss that puts a dent in profits I can buy.  That it causes a collapse, not so much.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Nevets

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

@John SuburbsI 

ETA: George Soros caused the Bank of England to collapse?  I must have missed that on my news feed. .

This was back in 1992 on Black Wednesday. Obviously it didn't destroy the BoE but it did wreck the British economy. Nor was it all Soros, of course - it was a mass move by financiers to sell the pound - but Soros made a particularly large amount by shorting it and became the "face" of the financial interests that played a role in the crisis, his nickname being 'the man who broke the Bank of England'.

Unlike much to do with Soros, this isn't a conspiracy theory or the like: it was widely reported at the time and he's on the record talking about it.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Alester Florent