Is F/Aegon headed for a Tragic End?

[Nevets]

10 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

This was back in 1992 on Black Wednesday. Obviously it didn't destroy the BoE but it did wreck the British economy. Nor was it all Soros, of course - it was a mass move by financiers to sell the pound - but Soros made a particularly large amount by shorting it and became the "face" of the financial interests that played a role in the crisis, his nickname being 'the man who broke the Bank of England'.

Unlike much to do with Soros, this isn't a conspiracy theory or the like: it was widely reported at the time and he's on the record talking about it.

I was being somewhat sarcastic and I fail to see what it has to do with the topic at hand.  Braavos doesn't have its own currency.  They use gold and silver like everyone else.

And I think the Iron Bank is important to the story only so far as its activities affect characters in or from Westeros.   Cersei, Stannis, FArya, and Arya being the main ones.  As far as the story is concerned, Essos is a backwater and of no consequence in itself.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Nevets

[John Suburbs]

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

@John Suburbs I am not entirely clear what your theory is, though I think it is something like: Aegon renounces Crown debt, which results in the failure of the Iron Bank, which results in an economic depression, which Illyrio somehow profits off of (stockpiling supplies apparently).  This helps bring about slavery in Westeros, which Illyrio further profits from.  What'd I miss?

This relies on a long series of assumptions that have minimal to non-existent textual support, and appear unlikely in any event.

1. Aegon renounces Crown debt.  This would cut the Crown off from capital markets.  Bankers may be greedy; they're not stupid.  They won't extend any more loans until payment is negotiated.  I can see a possible haircut, but not a total revocation.

2. That this non-payment would bring down the Iron Bank.  Westeros is the center of our story.  To Essos, it is a backwater.  We've been given no reason to believe that the loss of the Crown debt would be an existential threat.  The bank has a very hardball reputation, so their pressuring KL merchants and sending an envoy to Stannis are probably pressure tactics as much as anything.  Stannis is an obvious Plan B.  Plan A is repayment.  But given Westeros's (lack of) importance, I seriously doubt not getting paid would make them broke.  They have a very large loan book.

3. An economic depression would hurt everybody, Free Cities most of all.  Yes, there would be some trade in necessities, but only the minimum people can get away with, and nobody is getting rich off that.

4.  I fail to understand the bit about the iron coin.  Braavos runs on gold and silver.  The iron coin is most likely small change, the equivalent of copper in Westeros.  Its loss could cause an equivalent of a currency shortage.  Those aren't fun, but won't bring down the economy.

5. Westeros despises slavery.  Never in history have they sold their own people.  Jorah was an exception, and he had to run for his life.

ETA: George Soros caused the Bank of England to collapse?  I must have missed that on my news feed. 

That the Iron Bank may take a heavy loss that puts a dent in profits I can buy.  That it causes a collapse, not so much.

Not quite. Slavery does not return to Westeros. Pentos gets a free hand to deal in slaves again, with some of them coming from Westeros, under the table of course.

1) Aegon is not going to care about capital markets, which don't really exist anyway. There are not credit agencies or ratings, no regulatory structure, just individual organizations looking to make a profit. Aegon will disavow the loans because they were incurred by murderers and usurpers. That's all he cares about. But even on the odd chance that he does accept them, then Illyrio can just kill him. It's all the same to him.

The iron throne has existed for centuries with very little evidence that it is dependent on loans. Only Aerys, IIRC, had a loan, and even that led to a crisis with the IB, which an enterprising young cheesemonger may have interpreted as a way to bring the bank down some day.

2) The loan to the crown is likely to be far larger than any loan to a free city except maybe Volantis. The Iron Throne oversees the economy of an entire continent, with numerous ports, cities, castles, towns etc. Their trading volume is far higher than any city-state, save perhaps Volantis. But it's not the amount of the loan that brings the bank down. It's the loss of trust that this creates. The Iorn Bank has a rock-solid reputation of always getting its due. When that reputation is shown to be false, fear sets in. Then, all that is needed is a few proxy depositors to march in and withdraw their accounts. Like most banks, the IB probably has less than five percent cash on hand, so when it closes its windows, the panic sets in and the bank collapses in a day -- just like what happened to the Rogares.

3) Economic depressions don't last forever, and for those who are smart and prepared (especially if they know it is coming), they are an opportunity. Meanwhile, Braavos is in utter collapse. The vast majority of its wealth was in the Iron Bank and it is now gone. So for one thing, the treaty can no longer be enforced. Pentos regains its autonomy, can form its own army again, can start dealing in slaves again. And since the dominant trading power is now gone, Pentos, and Illyrio in particular, is in the best position, both financially and geographically, to capitalize on the loss of competition in Westerosi ports.

4) Braavos is the only place we know of that uses a proxy currency. Sure, there is gold and silver, but the poor use the iron coin, backed by the faith and credit of the Iron Bank. With the bank gone, the iron coin is worthless, and the buying power of the vast majority of the city is gone. And even those with gold and silver in their pockets, that's all they have. The bulk of their wealth was in the IB, and it's gone.

5) Jorah Mormont was exiled because he tried to sell slaves. The Ironborn have thralls, which is essentially slavery. When faced with slavery or starvation, you'd be surprised at how quickly people will choose slavery.

How Did George Soros Break the Bank of England? (investopedia.com)

 

[Loose Bolt]

On 3/16/2023 at 6:03 PM, John Suburbs said:

Just go around murdering people and taking their money, that's a great way for a bank to operate. I'm sure the wealthy of Braavos would have no problem watching bank managers carting away wagons of gold from their neighbor who just suddenly and mysteriously died. Talk about making stuff up.

Actually Iron Bank do not really has to move gold anywhere as long it already is under control of IB. They only have to make sure that people never take it away from IB.

On 3/16/2023 at 6:03 PM, John Suburbs said:

But even if it did have a team of assassins, killing the orchestrator of their demise does nothing. Their gold is gone. It is not coming back.

Unless a facedancer wears face of a vice guy and also take over all property of that dead person. Or I assume that if Illyrio causes problems to IB he will be killed and replaced by a FM who will reallocate all properties that Illyrio owned to Iron Bank.

 

 

[csuszka1948]

In AWOW, I think his path will be 'glorious': taking Storm's End, defeating Mace's army and marching to King's Landing unimpeded after Randyll Tarly turns cloak (in exchange for Brightwater Keep) and he receives Faith Militant support. 

The problems will be caused by his marriage: perhaps Sansa (if she is kidnapped by Ser Shadrich) or Arianne will try to seduce him (she is jealous of her brother and thinks Dany a kinslayer - on the other hand, being heir to Sunspear is better than being queen) and once Aegon hears that Dany disappeared and 'died', he will wed one of them. This will cause a conflict between him and Dany when she arrives to Westeros.

Eventually, yes, he will be likely be burned by Dany's dragonfire or possibly wildfire/greyscale.

 

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Nevets]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Not quite. Slavery does not return to Westeros. Pentos gets a free hand to deal in slaves again, with some of them coming from Westeros, under the table of course.

1) Aegon is not going to care about capital markets, which don't really exist anyway. There are not credit agencies or ratings, no regulatory structure, just individual organizations looking to make a profit. Aegon will disavow the loans because they were incurred by murderers and usurpers. That's all he cares about. But even on the odd chance that he does accept them, then Illyrio can just kill him. It's all the same to him.

The iron throne has existed for centuries with very little evidence that it is dependent on loans. Only Aerys, IIRC, had a loan, and even that led to a crisis with the IB, which an enterprising young cheesemonger may have interpreted as a way to bring the bank down some day.

2) The loan to the crown is likely to be far larger than any loan to a free city except maybe Volantis. The Iron Throne oversees the economy of an entire continent, with numerous ports, cities, castles, towns etc. Their trading volume is far higher than any city-state, save perhaps Volantis. But it's not the amount of the loan that brings the bank down. It's the loss of trust that this creates. The Iorn Bank has a rock-solid reputation of always getting its due. When that reputation is shown to be false, fear sets in. Then, all that is needed is a few proxy depositors to march in and withdraw their accounts. Like most banks, the IB probably has less than five percent cash on hand, so when it closes its windows, the panic sets in and the bank collapses in a day -- just like what happened to the Rogares.

3) Economic depressions don't last forever, and for those who are smart and prepared (especially if they know it is coming), they are an opportunity. Meanwhile, Braavos is in utter collapse. The vast majority of its wealth was in the Iron Bank and it is now gone. So for one thing, the treaty can no longer be enforced. Pentos regains its autonomy, can form its own army again, can start dealing in slaves again. And since the dominant trading power is now gone, Pentos, and Illyrio in particular, is in the best position, both financially and geographically, to capitalize on the loss of competition in Westerosi ports.

4) Braavos is the only place we know of that uses a proxy currency. Sure, there is gold and silver, but the poor use the iron coin, backed by the faith and credit of the Iron Bank. With the bank gone, the iron coin is worthless, and the buying power of the vast majority of the city is gone. And even those with gold and silver in their pockets, that's all they have. The bulk of their wealth was in the IB, and it's gone.

5) Jorah Mormont was exiled because he tried to sell slaves. The Ironborn have thralls, which is essentially slavery. When faced with slavery or starvation, you'd be surprised at how quickly people will choose slavery.

How Did George Soros Break the Bank of England? (investopedia.com)

 

@Craving Peaches was right.  This theory depends on a long series of hypotheticals, most of them speculative and all of which have to be correct.

If Illyrio wishes to bring down the Iron Bank.  If he tells Aegon to renounce Crown debt.  If Aegon agrees.  If this actually causes the Iron Bank to fail (which has its own series of necessary contingencies).  If.  If .  If.  All of which have to be true, or the theory fails.

And this ignores the biggest "if" of all: if George R.R. Martin bothers to write a convoluted story taking place in a peripheral locale without the involvement of major characters.  So, why would he bother, or how does this affect the main story, especially the main characters sufficiently to be worth doing, and, given the POV structure, how do find any of this out?

[BalerionTheCat]

Varys and Illirio are bad cases. Jon Con is there for revenge. And for greyscale. But yes, things will seem to improve for a time. With the Faith, the commoners and support of sufficient lords to challenge Cersei.
But then Dany will land with her armies, Red priests, Dothrakis, unsullied, sell swords, dragons... and still more slaves to feed.

[John Suburbs]

On 3/17/2023 at 2:07 PM, Loose Bolt said:

Actually Iron Bank do not really has to move gold anywhere as long it already is under control of IB. They only have to make sure that people never take it away from IB.

Unless a facedancer wears face of a vice guy and also take over all property of that dead person. Or I assume that if Illyrio causes problems to IB he will be killed and replaced by a FM who will reallocate all properties that Illyrio owned to Iron Bank.

 

The bank loans money to people, to spend it as they wish. That means the money, even if just on paper, is out of the bank's control. Like any bank right up until the recent past, the IB will have maybe 3 percent cash on hand, just to cover day-to-day transactions. The rest is on loan. That's how they make a profit. Gold sitting in a vault earns no interest.

An FM assuming the ID of a defaulter still won't get the money back. He'd have to sell off lands and other assets, and there is no mention of that ever happening. So, no.

Nobody knows that Illyrio is involved in any of this. If he's smart, Illyrio would lose a tidy sum in the bank's collapse as well, making him just one of many victims.

[John Suburbs]

On 3/17/2023 at 5:25 PM, Nevets said:

@Craving Peaches was right.  This theory depends on a long series of hypotheticals, most of them speculative and all of which have to be correct.

If Illyrio wishes to bring down the Iron Bank.  If he tells Aegon to renounce Crown debt.  If Aegon agrees.  If this actually causes the Iron Bank to fail (which has its own series of necessary contingencies).  If.  If .  If.  All of which have to be true, or the theory fails.

And this ignores the biggest "if" of all: if George R.R. Martin bothers to write a convoluted story taking place in a peripheral locale without the involvement of major characters.  So, why would he bother, or how does this affect the main story, especially the main characters sufficiently to be worth doing, and, given the POV structure, how do find any of this out?

All theories depend on hypotheticals. All theories are speculative.

Illyrio has every reason to bring down the IB. It frees Pentos and himself from Braavosi control. He stands to make millions in new trade. Aegon doesn't need to be told to renounce the debt. He will do it because it was created by those who murdered his family and stole his crown. This alone will not cause the bank to fail but the sum total of failures will induce panic among depositors, and that will cause the bank to fail -- just like Martin has already demonstrated with the Rogare bank.

It's not convoluted, and it does involve the major characters: Petyr, Illyrio, Dany, Ned, Robert, literally everyone in the story will be affected by this, for good or ill. And it affects the main story by bringing an end to the iron throne and a unified kingdom in Westeros, perhaps at the very time that they need unity more than anything. The iron bank collapsing will be known throughout the world, so if we don't get a first-hand glimpse of this through Arya or someone else, it will be on every tongue in a short while, just like every other major event that has happened.

So buy it, don't buy it. Whatever. Enjoy.

[Loose Bolt]

27 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Like any bank right up until the recent past, the IB will have maybe 3 percent cash on hand, just to cover day-to-day transactions. The rest is on loan. That's how they make a profit. Gold sitting in a vault earns no interest.

That is not possible as long that only way to transfer large sums need ships or at least wheelbarrows and takes long time. Or IB would need to have much larger pro cent of their assets as reserve. But partly from that reason prices of loans just couple 100 years ago were much higher than nowadays. For instance annual 50 % interest level for a loan would have been cheap and normally price would have been even larger. So a bank would still make profit though it lends smaller amount of gold and keeps larger reserves than modern banks.

Totally another thing is that Iron Bank almost certainly have more businesses than only banking. For instance when Kustaa Wasa rebelled against Kingdom of Denmark major reason he won and became King of Sweden 1523 was his deal with Hansa League. Or Hansa financed his rebellion and lent to him mercenaries and warships. But price of that support was that Hansa gained total monopoly of foreign trade of Sweden. In theory IB could make similar deals with any VIP. Or debtor could pay back his debt by giving IB monopoly of all trade with areas controlled by him.

Iron Bank could also start collecting custom revenues of any ship that sails either from/to harbor controlled by a VIP who have not paid back his debt to Iron Bank. Good thing for IB in that would be that they could use part of those revenues to finance special operation that is necessary for collecting unpaid debt. So a customer who thought that he would not pay his debt would lose most of his own revenues until IB had gained back their money. Naturally including mandatory service fees.

[csuszka1948]

On 2/25/2023 at 10:18 PM, Many-Faced Votary said:

I want to address common assumptions with two things that are important to note:

• Slayer of Lies, not Slayer of Liars
• GRRM: "The second Dance of Dragons does not have to mean Dany's invasion." (SSM)

This is something to keep in mind in response to the unsubstantiated claims that a Daenerys/fAegon Dance is inevitable, much less the idea of Dany herself killing fAegon.

 

As for fAegon, I don't believe that we're meant to view him the way Varys pretends we are. Never mind the temper tantrum he threw over a board game ("Tyrion can get under your skin" is not a good excuse -- could you imagine any of our PoV characters being that immature at this point in the story, including people as young as Bran and Arya?), never mind that Tyrion himself thinks of Joffrey when this happens (who would know better?): just think of what he has done in the time we've seen him.

Tyrion simply hinted that Dany might not believe fAegon is who he claims to be and that he might not actually be the perfect prince. fAegon asserts that he is his father's son himself and claims to be the only dragon needed because his pride couldn't handle the possibility of Tyrion being correct, and brings much bloodier war (the threat of dragons can easily induce surrender; whereas other factions would have little reason not to fight back against him now) to Westeros in his impatience to get the Iron Throne, now and for himself.

And then Prince Aegon spoke. “Then put your hopes on me,” he said. “Daenerys is Prince Rhaegar’s sister, but I am Rhaegar’s son. I am the only dragon that you need.”

The Lost Lord, A Dance with Dragons

In one sense, the lie has already been slain. Dany proves that she is a dragon by action, and others who knew Rhaegar (Jorah and Barristan) tell her that she is her brother's sister. fAegon calls himself a dragon and Rhegar's son.

 

Varys is incredibly intelligent and sufficiently detached to be a true chessmaster, but he is not infallible. He is playing God, but he is not a god; and the fact that all pieces have wills of their own -- from fAegon himself to Arianne to Cersei to Daenerys -- means that they will not play the roles he has in his mind decreed they will, and even that they don't have the traits he believes them to.

Furthermore, he has to think he's in the right at this point. "For the realm" is his justification for the evils he has wrought, from keeping Aerys II on the Iron Throne for years, to cutting the tongues out of young children whom he forces to act as his spies and assassins, to actively destabilizing Westeros and inducing war. That doesn't mean he actually is in the right, and we ultimately aren't intended to support a well-intentioned extremist with emphasis on the "extreme" regardless -- see also, Melisandre.

 

The other thing is, fAegon is entirely manufactured. He is not a hero; Varys tried to shape him into one artificially. That simply cannot be done. We the reader are supposed to realize that he's describing Dany in the ADwD Epilogue; and we should also immediately perceive the problem of trying to say that someone who has had a royal retinue, guard, tutors, etc., and wanted for nothing materially his entire life, knows what it is to be hungry, hunted, and afraid.

Dany considers queenship a duty to her people, to protect them, and to justice; it is integral to her character. fAegon acts like any other claimant who simply wants power, contrary to what Varys says. Dany has actually been hungry, hunted, and afraid. Dany earned her status through great difficulties and trying to do good for people.

 

Furthermore, it completely ruins the point to have the perfect ruler -- which we already know fAegon cannot be -- be some random tertiary or secondary character whom we didn't follow in any significant way for most of the series, who had everything handed to him, and who did not have a ruling arc or even a PoV. Ruling is hard and we can only do the best we can, and the idea is to do as much good as possible. Jon and Dany are the people who have had these arcs.

 

To answer the original question, I don't think we're supposed to be happy if fAegon dies, but neither do I think it will be especially tragic to lose a claimant to the throne who doesn't actually encapsulate the positive qualities that his inner circle insists he does.

The more I think, the more I agree about you.

Cersei is already 'Aerys reborn'/Rhaenyra parallel, Aegon 'Rhaegar'son reborn'/Daeron I parallel/vengeance of Bittersteel, and Euron is possibly Bloodraven's/3EC's 'student', the Dance of Dragons could refer to the power struggle between them in TWOW. Also, George has already introduced the Dragonbinder as the literal device that brings dragons to Westeros without needing Dany to go there.

It also fits with his original outline: the first part is the Stark-Lannister war (first 3 books), the second is a Targaryen invasion and dance with dragons (originally Dany's invasion, but after scrapping the 5-year gap replaced with Aegon's invasion, next 3 books), and the last part is the invasion of the Others, which is the topics of the last book (ADOS). 

As for Aegon, he is a good kid, but he is very much like Jon in the first part of AGOT, and he won't receive the same kind of humbling experience (done by Donal Noye, Mormont and Quorin) that Jon has received after joining the Watch. The people surrounding him and supporting him are ruthless and vengeful: the GC is a super-competent sellsword company but still a sellsword company that isn't afraid from sacking and raping a bit, Jon Connington wants to emulate Tywin and the Sandsnakes (who will be likely on Aegon's side) want to take revenge on little children. 

Varys saved Aegon from the Sack and wanted to raise a King under whom such monstrosities don't happen anymore, but I think the tragedy will be that his invasion leads to the repeat of Tywin's actions: another Sack of KL at the hands of the Golden Company and the Dornish, while innocent royal children (Myrcella, possibly Tommen) are brutally killed. Cersei will be probably locked in the Red Keep and ignite the wildfire under them or Euron flies in with a dragon and claims the Throne in the name of himself and Daenerys.

Aegon tries to take the Throne on his own, but he fails, because he didn't listen to Tyrion's real advice, because Dany ('his dragon') is too far away to save him:

Smiling, he seized his dragon, flew it across the board. “I hope Your Grace will pardon me. Your king is trapped. Death in four.”

The prince stared at the playing board. “My dragon—”

“—is too far away to save you. You should have moved her to the center of the battle.”

“But you said—”

“I lied. Trust no one. And keep your dragon close.”

 

In a way, that's even consistent with the show: books 1-3 are told in seasons 1-4, books 4-6 are shortcut in seasons 5-6 (ends with Dornish failing, Tommen and Myrcella dead, Cersei using wildfire, Jon elected KoN, Stannis burning Shireen) and season 7-8 are roughly based on book 7 (Euron and Cersei as final human antagonists).

The scene in the House of Undying in season 2 is also explained by that: by the time Dany (the  arrives in Westeros, KL and the Red Keep will have already burnt down, and that's why she will see Aegon's Throne (aka Ozymandias, "Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!") covered in ash and snow (reversed sand from Ozymandias).

[csuszka1948]

On 2/25/2023 at 10:58 PM, Many-Faced Votary said:

Furthermore, the circumstances were hardly comparable. Tyrion was definitely being manipulative by design, but all he did to fAegon was imply that Dany might not be as submissive as he would like and that he might not be as perfect as he claims to be, a fairly minor attack on his worldview. On the other hand, he shattered Jon's naïve worldview in the cruelest manner imaginable, telling him about how low his new brothers would be and mocking his bastardry.

Also, this is fAegon now, who will soon be king on the Iron Throne. That seems to be a big problem, no?

 

I think they are actually comparable.

Tyrion shattered Aegon's naive worldview in a similarly cruel way. The main issue that Aegon had wasn't the fact that Tyrion told him the truth about Dany, but that Tyrion lied to him and deceived him. The boy grew up living in a boat and so far he has thought that he cannot trust 'outsiders' but can fully trust 'insiders' (people on the boat), but Tyrion shattered this imagined reality.

Also, both Jon and Aegon - despite their original outrage - seemed to have taken at least part of the lesson to heart, since Aegon is more distrustful and doesn't believe people will do as he wants just because he is the heir anymore.

That said, Aegon won't receive the same humbling that Jon has received in the Watch during AGOT and ACOK, and that experience will be sorely missing. 

[SeanF]

If the Iron Bank collapsed, the impact would be worse than the failure of Credit Anstalt in 1931, or the banking crisis of 2008-09.

Why?  Because there’s no substantial welfare state in this world, and governments have no notion of borrowing or boosting the money supply to offset a credit crunch.

The trustees in bankruptcy of the IB would call in every loan they could, and refuse to offer credit, save at enormous rates of interest.  That would trigger the collapse of businesses, right across Essos and Westeros.  There would be a fire sale of assets as people struggled to pay their debts, worsening the problem.

The one trade that would be unaffected would be the slave trade, which the IB does not finance, and which would benefit from people desperate to sell themselves.  As against that, many slave owners would find themselves destitute as other assets plummeted in value.  Formerly rich people who have to sell themselves to survive may turn into revolutionaries.

An already volatile situation in the East would be inflamed further.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Quote

Viserys, was her first thought the next time she paused, but a second glance told her otherwise. The man had her brother's hair, but he was taller, and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac. "Aegon," he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. "What better name for a king?"

"Will you make a song for him?" the woman asked.

"He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany's, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. "There must be one more," he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. "The dragon has three heads." He went to the window seat, picked up a harp, and ran his fingers lightly over its silvery strings. Sweet sadness filled the room as man and wife and babe faded like the morning mist, only the music lingering behind to speed her on her way.

Daenerys IV, Clash 48

The eye color, the harp, and the melancholy tone leave no doubt that this vision was of Rhaegar. Since the babe was Aegon, the woman must have been Elia. Aemon tells us later that Rhaegar came to believe his son would be the prince that was promised...

Quote

On Braavos, it had seemed possible that Aemon might recover. Xhondo's talk of dragons had almost seemed to restore the old man to himself. That night he ate every bite Sam put before him. "No one ever looked for a girl," he said. "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought ... the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it." Just talking of her seemed to make him stronger. "I must go to her. I must. Would that I was even ten years younger."

Samwell IV, Feast 35

Like so many prophecies we've seen in A Song of Ice and Fire, the visionary got this one slightly wrong. Rhaegar's son is the prince that was promised, but it's Jon Snow, rather than Rhaegar's first born son...

Quote

"Prince Aegon was Rhaegar's heir by Elia of Dorne," Ser Jorah said. "But if he was this prince that was promised, the promise was broken along with his skull when the Lannisters dashed his head against a wall." 

Daenerys V, Storm 57

The vision that was Rhaegar was looking at Daeneys when he said, "There must be one more," and, "The dragon has three heads." As Rhaegar's statement, "His is the song of ice and fire," hinted that his son is the prince that was promised, his statement, "The dragon has three heads," hinted that two more Targaryens would be revealed. Daenerys, then, was the first head of Rhaegar's dragon. The most dramatic introduction of a character since our fair dragon queen visited the House of the Undying Ones was the reveal of Aegon at the Bridge of Dream. So, Aegon is the second head of Rhaegar's dragon. Aegon, though is actually the Blackfyre (but see this), not a Targaryen. And we know who the next big reveal is going to be don't we? Jon Snow, of course, is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. So, Jon will be the third head of Rhaegar's dragon. 

Quote

Three-headed Trios has that tower with three turrets. The first head devours the dying, and the reborn emerge from the third. I don't know what the middle head's supposed to do.

The Ugly Little Girl, Dance 64

Quote

Q: Hi, short question. Will we find out more about the Dance of the Dragons in future books?

A: The first dance or the second? The second will be the subject of a book. The first will be mentioned from time to time, I'm sure. 

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Concerning_the_Dance_of_the_Dragons

And the people will die...

Quote

It was then that pasty, pudgy Teora raised her eyes from the creamcakes on her plate. "It is dragons."

"Dragons?" said her mother. "Teora, dont be mad."

"I'm not. They're coming."

"How could you possibly know that?" her sister asked, with a note of scorn in her voice. "One of your little dreams?"

Teora gave a tiny nod, chin trembling.

"They were dancing. In my dream. And everywhere the dragons danced the people died."

Arianne I, Winds

Aegon, of course, is the mummer's dragon...

Quote

A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. ... mother of dragons, slayer of lies ...

Daenerys IV, Clash 48

And the George introduced Aegon to fight Daenerys...

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A mummer's dragon, you said. What is a mummer's dragon, pray?"

"A cloth dragon on poles," Dany explained. "Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight."

Daenerys V, Clash 63

But Daenerys will win. Like three-headed Trios, the first head will devour the dying, and the second head has no other purpose. The reborn, though, will emerge from the third head.