Southron Ambitions

[SeanF]

21 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I’m not so sure… I don’t think they would have killed her. Maybe send her someplace to live out her days or something like that But even if she’s executed, I’m positive she wouldn’t have been sexually assaulted, beaten, bitten, etc. 

She was pregnant with dragonspawn.  I guess she’d have been spared rape, but she’d have been put to death on the spot.

[kissdbyfire]

47 minutes ago, SeanF said:

She was pregnant with dragonspawn.  I guess she’d have been spared rape, but she’d have been put to death on the spot.

I’m not fully sold but I’ll concede it is possible. It will come down to who got to her first, I suppose. At any rate, I’d rather one million trillion times to be put to death on the spot than what I described previously.

[Mourning Star]

I'm not at all convinced that Ned and Lady Dustin's comments are enough to conclude that Rickard was part of a conspiracy to overthrow Aerys and install a new dynasty. But, I will admit that there are questions surrounding the politics of Westeros before Robert's Rebellion.

There is an interesting web of relationships worth examining. Although the conclusions are not so obvious to me.

Jon Arryn took Robert Baratheon and Ned Stark as wards.

Robert was betrothed to Lyanna Stark.

Brandon Stark was betrothed to Cat Tully.

Hoster Tully was married to Minisa Whent.

And yet, when the Tourney of Harenhall was held, which it is implied was sponsored by Rhaegar, the Tullys were seemingly not present. Nor was Rickard Stark.

Then there is Rickard Stark's Maester, Walys Flowers, the son of a Hightower and a High Maester.

Mace Tyrell is married to Alerie Hightower, and Gerold Hightower was the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard.

The Hightowers, and Tyrells remained loyal to House Targaryen during the rebellion.

Also of note on the Kingsguard were Oswell Whent, and Lewyn Martell. Lewyn Martell had an unknown paramour.

Elia Martell was married to Rhaegar Targaryen.

If, and I do think it's a big if, you are going to interpret Ned's comments about Brandon being born to be a King's Hand and father to queens literally, one would have to ask how he imagined this playing out.

It seems that it wasn't until around the battle of the Trident that it was decided Robert would try and claim the throne, well after the deaths of Brandon and Rickard.

There is no way to know if Brandon would even have had daughters.

I'm not sure it seems any more likely to me, but I suppose the possibility of a conspiracy to succeed from the Iron Throne, could also be considered an avenue to being father to queens, but this doesn't make much sense in conjunction with being Hand of the King.

In conclusion, while there may have been one or more conspiracies during Aerys's reign, and the politics are still hazy at best, it's hard for me to see how we can take Ned's words literally.

[kissdbyfire]

31 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I'm not at all convinced that Ned and Lady Dustin's comments are enough to conclude that Rickard was part of a conspiracy to overthrow Aerys and install a new dynasty. But, I will admit that there are questions surrounding the politics of Westeros before Robert's Rebellion.

There is an interesting web of relationships worth examining. Although the conclusions are not so obvious to me.

Jon Arryn took Robert Baratheon and Ned Stark as wards.

Robert was betrothed to Lyanna Stark.

Brandon Stark was betrothed to Cat Tully.

Hoster Tully was married to Minisa Whent.

And yet, when the Tourney of Harenhall was held, which it is implied was sponsored by Rhaegar, the Tullys were seemingly not present. Nor was Rickard Stark.

Then there is Rickard Stark's Maester, Walys Flowers, the son of a Hightower and a High Maester.

Mace Tyrell is married to Alerie Hightower, and Gerold Hightower was the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard.

The Hightowers, and Tyrells remained loyal to House Targaryen during the rebellion.

Also of note on the Kingsguard were Oswell Whent, and Lewyn Martell. Lewyn Martell had an unknown paramour.

Elia Martell was married to Rhaegar Targaryen.

If, and I do think it's a big if, you are going to interpret Ned's comments about Brandon being born to be a King's Hand and father to queens literally, one would have to ask how he imagined this playing out.

It seems that it wasn't until around the battle of the Trident that it was decided Robert would try and claim the throne, well after the deaths of Brandon and Rickard.

There is no way to know if Brandon would even have had daughters.

I'm not sure it seems any more likely to me, but I suppose the possibility of a conspiracy to succeed from the Iron Throne, could also be considered an avenue to being father to queens, but this doesn't make much sense in conjunction with being Hand of the King.

In conclusion, while there may have been one or more conspiracies during Aerys's reign, and the politics are still hazy at best, it's hard for me to see how we can take Ned's words literally.

I agree w/ the broad ideas here. But I think people are looking at Ned’s words about Brandon from the wrong perspective. 
 

I think Ned never saw himself in the role that he suddenly found himself in. I would imagine similar thoughts about things that were “meant for Brandon” or how “Brandon would know what to do” did cross his mind on many occasions. So, when he thinks about Brandon becoming HotK or marrying his daughters to kings, he’s simply doing the opposite as a reverse exercise, as it were. He’s putting Brandon in his place, and thinking that Brandon would have known how to handle the situation had he been in Ned’s shoes. 

[Alester Florent]

There's clearly a concerted attempt to build an alliance between the STAB houses through marriage alliances and ward arrangements. But the idea that this was a conspiracy against the Targaryens is founded on virtually nothing. It so happened that the Starks, Tullys and Baratheons had children of a similar age who were therefore suitable for marriage to each other or raising alongside one another. And they weren't unique in this either: we also see the Martells marrying into the Targaryens, attempts to set up marriages between Lannisters and Martells, Lannisters and Targaryens, Lannisters and Tullys.

I suspect the only reason the Tyrells and Greyjoys weren't participating in the same great-house marriage scramble were that their kids were out of sync with the others', and even then it's not too hard to imagine that had things played out differently we'd have seen Benjen/Asha, or Elbert/Lysa, or Renly/Margaery (as actually happens), etc.

[Mourning Star]

49 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I agree w/ the broad ideas here. But I think people are looking at Ned’s words about Brandon from the wrong perspective. 
 

I think Ned never saw himself in the role that he suddenly found himself in. I would imagine similar thoughts about things that were “meant for Brandon” or how “Brandon would know what to do” did cross his mind on many occasions. So, when he thinks about Brandon becoming HotK or marrying his daughters to kings, he’s simply doing the opposite as a reverse exercise, as it were. He’s putting Brandon in his place, and thinking that Brandon would have known how to handle the situation had he been in Ned’s shoes. 

On the one hand, Cat and Winterfell were literally meant for Brandon, so I have myself wondered if Ned's comment about being hand of the king and father to queens had some more literal meaning, but honestly I don't see how it could make sense in practice.

What you describe certainly makes sense to me and is how I interpret his remarks. At least today.

44 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

There's clearly a concerted attempt to build an alliance between the STAB houses through marriage alliances and ward arrangements. But the idea that this was a conspiracy against the Targaryens is founded on virtually nothing. It so happened that the Starks, Tullys and Baratheons had children of a similar age who were therefore suitable for marriage to each other or raising alongside one another. And they weren't unique in this either: we also see the Martells marrying into the Targaryens, attempts to set up marriages between Lannisters and Martells, Lannisters and Targaryens, Lannisters and Tullys.

I suspect the only reason the Tyrells and Greyjoys weren't participating in the same great-house marriage scramble were that their kids were out of sync with the others', and even then it's not too hard to imagine that had things played out differently we'd have seen Benjen/Asha, or Elbert/Lysa, or Renly/Margaery (as actually happens), etc.

This makes sense to me, and one can certainly have "southern ambitions" without aiming to overthrow the king.

But, just to play devils advocate, I can't quite say there is no evidence for an anti Targaryen conspiracy, although I would look to Oldtown and the Maesters more than the great houses themselves.

 "Perhaps it's good that he died before he got to Oldtown. Elsewise the grey sheep might have had to kill him, and that would have made the poor old dears wring their wrinkled hands."
"Kill him?" Sam said, shocked. "Why?"
"If I tell you, they may need to kill you too." Marywn smiled a ghastly smile, the juice of the sourleaf running red between his teeth. "Who do you think killed all the dragons the last time around? Gallant dragonslayers armed with swords?" He spat. "The world the Citadel is building has no place in it for sorcery or prophecy or glass candles, much less for dragons. Ask yourself why Aemon Targaryen was allowed to waste his life upon the Wall, when by rights he should have been raised to archmaester. His blood was why. He could not be trusted. No more than I can."

Now this quote begs a lot of questions.

Not the least of which is the inconsistency here with what Aemon himself described as why he spent his life on the Wall.

Or, is the last bit is Marwyn admitting that he too has Targaryen blood?

But, it sure does seem like Marwyn is saying that there is and was an anti Targaryen conspiracy at least among the Maesters. Meanwhile, it is Maester Walys Flowers who Lady Dustin accuses of being the root of the plotting.

[Many-Faced Votary]

18 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Well said. Also worthy of mention is the fact that, if there was a deliberate move to make alliances through marriages, that does not a conspiracy make. I would imagine these marriages were fairly common. To go from that to "it was an evil plot to depose Good King Aerys and kill all the Targs" is ridiculous, unsupported by the text, and a dumb af argument. Then when you see who are the people making these claims it all makes sense. 

I could only have put it worse myself! The STAB alliance was the obvious sensible result of the political climate and the desires of the men (or at least the ruling lords) involved aligning well. I'd be much more surprised if they hadn't formed these marriage pacts, and also concerned about the supposed competence of some of these people.

18 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Precisely. But do you know what else is curious? It doesn't seem that the TARGAs are necessarily big Targaryen fans... Given who they defend and cheer on, it seems to me they just really like a certain type of character and Dany. 

Here are some of the characters they defend systematically: Ramsay, Walder, Roose, Marsh, Aerys, Littlefinger, Slynt, Viserys..

Never a word about other great Targaryens... Baelor Breakspear, Egg, Maekar, etc etc. 

So they like the murderers, rapists, traitors, and Dany. Why do they even like Dany since she's nothing like the characters they are so keen on defending? She doesn't deserve to be in such vile company.

My original thought was that they don't actually like Dany; they're just obsessed with supposed Targaryen supremacy, either because they're dedicated to trolling and this is the easiest way or because they have very a problematic worldview.  

But you brought up a great point that I didn't realize: they don't like any of the good Targaryens! The Targs you see them defend are Dany (in bizarre future contexts like being Azor Ahai or supposedly kinslaying, and possibly because she's the only Targ left, because by that rule they wouldn't like her either), Aerys II (...), Rhaegar (specifically for kidnapping Lyanna; no word for his other actions like trying to dethrone his insane, unfit father), and the worst of the historical dynasty, such as Maegor.

And, like you said, they're absolutely enamored with the worst of the worst as well: Tywin, Ramsay, Roose, Walder, Littlefinger, etc. At this rate, I'm starting to wonder how long they'll take to turn on their supposed favorite character for opposing the Ghiscari slavers, a group they probably venerate above all others.

[frenin]

21 hours ago, SeanF said:

  His efforts to improve the condition of the lower classes were bitterly resented by a large part of the nobility

From what we saw his efforts to not put his children on a leash costed him more than his reforms could.

The Great Houses could all help him but Aegon chose to be lenient with his children. He couldn't have it all, he didn't have dragons and oh...

Then again, we have seen the results of a single Great House having a claim to the throne. Can't really imagine the outcome if 6 out of 8 had one.

The Southron Conspiracy is kind of goofy and would be even funnier if it was indeed true because it's incredibly stupid for every party involved.

The Great Lords needed a reason for their vassals to follow them in the highest of treasons... Yet they do nothing. Ned, Edmure,  Benjen, Stannis, Renly and to a lesser extent Elbert Arryn and Lysa Tully all remain without betrothals.

The Southron Conspiracy hinges on the hypothesis that the Great Lords command complete loyalty from their vassals but that is simply far from the truth and these Lords should know it.

 

Then again during the War of the 5 Kings, both Tyrells and Lannisters command complete loyalty of their vassals and these become mindless drones so...

[frenin]

16 hours ago, SeanF said:

She was pregnant with dragonspawn.  I guess she’d have been spared rape, but she’d have been put to death on the spot.

Just like Dany and Viserys were put to death right after the rebels took the throne...

That didn't happen now did it.

[Corvo the Crow]

On 3/3/2023 at 11:52 AM, Roswell said:

Lady Barbrey Dustin entertains Theon Greyjoy with a very fascinating story.  Those pages introduced us to Rickard Stark's ambitions to build marriage and military alliances with House Tully and House Baratheon.  This conspiracy is now known as "Southron Ambitions."  If true, the goal of the conspiracy was to put Robert on the throne with Brandon as his Hand. 

A Game of Thrones gave us the following quote:

"That brought a bitter twist to Ned's mouth.  "Brandon. Yes. Brandon would know what to do.  He always did.  It was all meant for Brandon. You, Winterfell, everything.  He was born to be a King's Hand and a father to queens.  I never asked for this cup to pass to me."

So it was all meant for Brandon.  Maybe even the office of Hand of the King.  It seems to me that the Baratheons and the Starks had been planning to join their houses to remove the Targaryens from power.  It could be an innocent comment from Ned but I do not think so.  Rickard, Brandon, Robert, Hoster, *Catelyn, and Lyanna were all guilty of treason.  They are all dead and have paid for their crimes.  George may give us a backstory and then we will know for sure. 

 

 

 

*Stoneheart is only a shadow of what Cat was. 

Barbrey is an embittered old woman. Brandon used her and threw her away and she can't get over the fact and can't even put blame on it's proper place, her precious Brandon, but hates Ned for having her husband she probably didn't even care that much killed. I bet Ned feels much worse than Barbrey about Willam Dustin's death. If anything, including him among the handful of companions he took to ToJ shows at least a degree of closeness and how he valued him.

Southron ambitions is partly true, but the key part these theories miss is that Rickard never intended Lyanna to marry Robert, Hoster never intended to marry Lysa to Jon Arryn. It was Robert who wanted the marriage because, let's face it the guy is into Ned and Lyanna is a female Ned at least on the surface and in Lysa's case it was circumstance and Hoste being oppurtunistic to make a good match for his soiled daughter. Actually Catelyn marriage can also fall into Hoster being oppurtunistic as I can't recall if the betrothal could no longer be fulfilled if it's null or automatically passes on to the next in line. Also why would they even want to place Robert on the throne? He was the weakest of the bunch. Robert getting installed is also due to circumstance, with Targaryens no longer remaining as a viable option.

 

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 3/3/2023 at 9:22 AM, Craving Peaches said:

Good luck because there isn't any.

A clean execution, maybe. Not what Aerys did. And they did nothing wrong anyway.

A clean execution it should have been. We agree on that. But you know such things are often ignored. Stannis doesn’t limit himself to clean executions and has probably cruelly executed more people than Aerys. Roose has done far worse to his small folk and his Stark enemies. The Starks of old were famous for their cruelty. The slave masters don’t wait for a reason to torture and murder people. So Aerys on how he chose to execute two traitors is not out of place. Many lords would have done the same to those who they think betrayed them.  
 

We disagree on whether the Starks were traitors. Would you at least agree that they deserved to get executed (beheading) if they were guilty of treason?  

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Moiraine Sedai said:

Would you at least agree that they deserved to get executed (beheading) if they were guilty of treason?  

If, and only if, they were genuinely guilty. And everyone Aerys wants to execute has to be proved to be genuinely guilty. And he still needs to grant them a legitimate trial by combat if they ask. Because that is for the Gods to judge, not him.

2 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Stannis doesn’t limit himself to clean executions and has probably cruelly executed more people than Aerys.

Stannis has only burned a handful of people though. We know Aerys burned more than a few peasants. I am not defending Stannis here but Aerys has burned more.

[Moiraine Sedai]

11 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

If, and only if, they were genuinely guilty. And everyone Aerys wants to execute has to be proved to be genuinely guilty. And he still needs to grant them a legitimate trial by combat if they ask. Because that is for the Gods to judge, not him.

Proof for those times does not require beyond a reasonable doubt.  

11 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Stannis has only burned a handful of people though. We know Aerys burned more than a few peasants. I am not defending Stannis here but Aerys has burned more.

Stannis roasted his own soldiers. I think he wins this contest.  

[Craving Peaches]

3 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Proof for those times does not require beyond a reasonable doubt.

Yes but you still have to prove them guilty. Not beyond reasonable doubt, though that would be ideal. But some good proof is needed. These are High Lords on trial here.

3 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Stannis roasted his own soldiers. I think he wins this contest.  

Stannis only roasted 4 of his soldiers so far though, whereas Aerys killed more than that number of peasants by burning them alive.

[Moiraine Sedai]

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Yes but you still have to prove them guilty. Not beyond reasonable doubt, though that would be ideal. But some good proof is needed. These are High Lords on trial here.

Brandon probably confessed. He was in custody for enough time to have a proper interrogation.  

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Stannis only roasted 4 of his soldiers so far though, whereas Aerys killed more than that number of peasants by burning them alive.

 

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Moiraine Sedai said:

Brandon probably confessed. He was in custody for enough time to have a proper interrogation.  

There's no way to tell if that is true. We never hear anything about a confession. Jaime would have mentioned it, or Barristan...

[Moiraine Sedai]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

There's no way to tell if that is true. We never hear anything about a confession. Jaime would have mentioned it, or Barristan...

Here’s to hoping he confessed to treason!  

 

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Moiraine Sedai said:

Here’s to hoping he confessed to treason!

I don't see why he would be involved in any plot though. Brandon is not really established as being particularly smart. He is hot headed and has a short temper. He also sleeps around and can't keep his mouth shut. I doubt anyone would want him in a plot if it existed. Same with Robert. I think it is far more likely that Brandon just heard about Lyanna being kidnapped and lost his cool.

[Lady Ella]

There was most definitely a conspiracy. What the aim of it was we can't be sure. I think it's most likely that Plan A was to replace Aerys with Rhaegar. This makes perfect sense. The king was mad and nobody was doing anything about it. He had to be removed. And the only way the Great Houses could achieve this was by forming a power block.

I could believe that Jon Arryn wanted to overthrow the Targs from the beginning. His fostering of Robert Baratheon was very convenient. At the very least I think he had Robert as a backup in case Plan A went wrong. I don't think Rickard Stark would have been on board with this plan, though. He's a character that intrigues me because we know so little about him but, based on what we see of the Starks in the main series and in Fire and Blood, I can't see a Stark taking action that would create instability or doing anything unlawful. Rickard Stark could be an outlier, but Ned Stark did not get his strict sense of justice from Jon Arryn. One theory I like is that Jon Arryn wanted to overthrow the Targs and Rickard Stark was the man holding him back. Don't forget, Jon Arryn was the man who started the war. I think Robert taking the throne was his idea too. Perhaps Jon Arryn, being closer to the Targs, thought that they were all terrible, weak kings and overthrowing them was the best long-term solution. There's no evidence to support this, though, it's just fun speculation.

[GZ Bloodraven]

I'm confused about the premise: the Rhaegar conspiracy is pretty well-established; this is saying that Rickard had a separate conspiracy for Robert Baratheon to overthrow the Targaryens with Brandon as the hand? And Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully were part of it? I think, had they really been considering overthrowing Aerys, Brandon and Rickard would not have been so reckless as to go to King's Landing without their supposed army. "Rhaegar just kidnapped Lyanna" "Ok dad, let's go with just us and some of our men to the capital and ask very firmly for him to give her back and then we'll take her back and in a couple years, Robert and Jon and Hoster will then ride with us back to the capital and then we will overthrow Aerys" this seems illogical and against all the character's motivations. But maybe they were gonna be part of installing Rhaegar until he went "I need to fulfill the prophecy" mode and kidnapped their sister and their betrothed

This one seems to make more sense, considering Walter Whent's sister (or cousin?) Minisa was married to Hoster, and Hoster's daughter was betrothed to Brandon and his other daughter was married to Jon Arryn and Brandon's sister was betrothed to Robert. So they were one big happy family, holding a tournament conspiring with Rhaegar. Brandon or Robert being Rhaegar's hand would have been interesting, but I feel like somebody would have mentioned that this was the plan in the POVs.