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Do you guys think that the Iron Throne and the 7K as a single entity will survive the ending of the series?


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On 3/10/2023 at 3:04 PM, astarkchoice said:

No ilyrio provides the raw materials and funding its varys network 

Jorah leads her to a posioner , he knew the wine seller was giving dany  posion because he was in on it. Varys and ilyrios original plan involves dany dying and jorah stops that.

Yes no state even medieval one can just say 'nope that was the previous guy' to its debts  without fucking up its economy, no one will lend to them ever again

Hes ilyrios son theres no reason hed want him dead and the iron bank is owed cash by individual lords and merchents not kingdoms.

None of those are serious (the war and winter could be excellent depending on how they invested) the slave trade is one asset in a global economy and we have no idea how deeply they are into it. They  called in debts to punish cersei man  they dont need the extra cash

As for the nw loan the nw have plenty to offer and we dint know over what length of time  jon was intialy told no way yes ....literaly negotiation 101 

Varys runs it, but Illyrio pays for it.

Varys and Illyrio's plan involves Dany dying and Drogo knowing it was Robert who did it. If she dies by a poison that makes it look like a natural event, then there is no benefit because Drogo has no reason to come after Robert. So Jorah knowing about the poison plot and who arranged it is crucial to this whole scheme because it provides the motive for the outcome I&V are striving for: Dothraki invasion of Westeros.

Who cares if no one lends to them again. All Illyrio wants is to destroy the Iron Bank, and this will likely require the destruction of the unified realm in Westeros anyway. And if for some reason Faegon bucks his master and decides to honor the debt anyway, then it's a simple matter for Illyrio to just have him killed.

No, individual lords and merchants owe their own debts to the bank. The crown's loan is the crown's alone. And there is no proof that fAegon is Illyrio's son, or that he wouldn't be above murdering his own son in order to make himself master of the Narrow Sea.

"The world is one great web and a man dare not touch a single strand lest all the rest tremble" -- Illyrio Mopatis. Braavos does not lend to slavers (although they do lend to rulers of slave-trading cities), but they do lend to merchants of all manner of other goods that rely on income from the slave trade to pay back their loans. Dany's disruption of the slave trade will have massive repercussions around the world, including on the Iron Bank's revenue stream. 

Yes, they called in debts to punish Cersei, but this will only end up punishing the bank because it makes it deprives the crown of the very gold they need to pay back the loan. And as I've explained, this and other things are a sign that the bank is in trouble. It's coffers are running dry.

Jon was told no at the very start: no way, now how. Only later did we see how the impossible became possible: the wildling treasure provides an instant cash infusion, albeit a small one. If they were as wealthy as they claim to be, then this negotiation would not have started out with a hard no, and even the wildling stuff would have been hardly worth the bother.

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On 3/10/2023 at 4:01 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

Thanks for a good read, I liked theory and find it plausible but, one major flaw is that all these happening and their effects showing would take decades. Unless he is a merling Illyrio doesn't have that much time and also he has no heirs that we have seen, so what's the point? 

No, not decades. If Stannis dies, there are no more champions for the bank to support. If depositors still don't realize that this time the iron bank will not get its due, a subtle whispering campaign could take care of that. Then a small army of proxy depositors is sent in to withdraw their accounts, and when the bank closes its windows the ensuing panic brings it down in a day -- just like what happened to the Rogares.

Illyrio is not concerned about any heirs, just himself. He becomes that master of all trade on the Narrow Sea, including in slaves, which are likely to be found in abundance as winter sets in on Westeros and large swaths of farmland has just been torched.

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20 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Varys runs it, but Illyrio pays for it.

Varys and Illyrio's plan involves Dany dying and Drogo knowing it was Robert who did it. If she dies by a poison that makes it look like a natural event, then there is no benefit because Drogo has no reason to come after Robert. So Jorah knowing about the poison plot and who arranged it is crucial to this whole scheme because it provides the motive for the outcome I&V are striving for: Dothraki invasion of Westeros.

Who cares if no one lends to them again. All Illyrio wants is to destroy the Iron Bank, and this will likely require the destruction of the unified realm in Westeros anyway. And if for some reason Faegon bucks his master and decides to honor the debt anyway, then it's a simple matter for Illyrio to just have him killed.

No, individual lords and merchants owe their own debts to the bank. The crown's loan is the crown's alone. And there is no proof that fAegon is Illyrio's son, or that he wouldn't be above murdering his own son in order to make himself master of the Narrow Sea.

"The world is one great web and a man dare not touch a single strand lest all the rest tremble" -- Illyrio Mopatis. Braavos does not lend to slavers (although they do lend to rulers of slave-trading cities), but they do lend to merchants of all manner of other goods that rely on income from the slave trade to pay back their loans. Dany's disruption of the slave trade will have massive repercussions around the world, including on the Iron Bank's revenue stream. 

Yes, they called in debts to punish Cersei, but this will only end up punishing the bank because it makes it deprives the crown of the very gold they need to pay back the loan. And as I've explained, this and other things are a sign that the bank is in trouble. It's coffers are running dry.

Jon was told no at the very start: no way, now how. Only later did we see how the impossible became possible: the wildling treasure provides an instant cash infusion, albeit a small one. If they were as wealthy as they claim to be, then this negotiation would not have started out with a hard no, and even the wildling stuff would have been hardly worth the bother.

Yes hence its wouldnt be ilyrio and lf with varys out of the loop

Jorah stops her dying though, hes not in on the plan..drogo is enranged anyway so its same.result but yeah varys and co wanted her dead by that point

Who cares if no one lends to them.again?....in something  little  called an economy it  sorta matters agreat deal!! Esp for a man whos wealth is tied into  trade  Ilyrio is faegons dad he wouldnt kill him anyway 

Theres a very strong theory with various hints faegon is ilyrios son whereas this theory of yours has 0 evidence and flys in the face of basic economics and is fairly illogical man (sorry)

Yes slave trade ending could hurt their revune stream but like all real economies the move from slavery to capitalism will mean the iron bank will be far far better off  long term

Erm if they called in loans dude it means they already  have a shitload of extra cash.....thats what calling in loans means! 

 

Lol dont you  every go near a salesman then dude! OF COURSE its 'impossible ' at 1st then maybe just maybe  then ooh ok  but your twisting my arm here ...as he utterly rapes the NW in interest payments and loan length in the small print!!!  Its called haggling and he saw jonny boy comming a mile off!

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22 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Yes hence its wouldnt be ilyrio and lf with varys out of the loop

Jorah stops her dying though, hes not in on the plan..drogo is enranged anyway so its same.result but yeah varys and co wanted her dead by that point

Who cares if no one lends to them.again?....in something  little  called an economy it  sorta matters agreat deal!! Esp for a man whos wealth is tied into  trade  Ilyrio is faegons dad he wouldnt kill him anyway 

Theres a very strong theory with various hints faegon is ilyrios son whereas this theory of yours has 0 evidence and flys in the face of basic economics and is fairly illogical man (sorry)

Yes slave trade ending could hurt their revune stream but like all real economies the move from slavery to capitalism will mean the iron bank will be far far better off  long term

Erm if they called in loans dude it means they already  have a shitload of extra cash.....thats what calling in loans means! 

 

Lol dont you  every go near a salesman then dude! OF COURSE its 'impossible ' at 1st then maybe just maybe  then ooh ok  but your twisting my arm here ...as he utterly rapes the NW in interest payments and loan length in the small print!!!  Its called haggling and he saw jonny boy comming a mile off!

Why wouldn't Varys be out of the loop when it comes to Petyr? He has no eyes and ears on Petyr, no way of knowing "what game Littlefinger is playing." 

Jorah was also the one who told Drogo who was behind the assassination attempt. No matter what he does, Jorah is the means for Drogo to connect this all back to Robert and seek his revenge.

It doesn't matter to Illyrio if no one lends to the crown again because the crown will be gone. There is no proof that Illyrio is fAegon's daddy, or that he wouldn't kill his own son to enrich himself. Illyrio cares about Illyrio, no one else.

This theory does have evidence. Petyr's backstory is evidence. The gap in Varys' spy network is evidence. The bank scrambling to raise cash is evidence. The faltering world economy is evidence. There is far more evidence for this than for Illyrio being fAegon's father.

The Iron Bank will not be better if/when depositors make a run. How is the Bank of Rogare faring these days?

No, calling in loans before they are due is always a sign that a bank is in trouble. It means it must sacrifice future profits because it needs cash now. Economics 101.

So if you go into a dealership to buy a car, the first thing the salesman says to you is no way, no how, impossible? If there is a reasonable deal to be made you don't start off with "no, get lost", you say "let's talk." And it was clear that the watch has all kinds of wealth in the form of wood, which is common in Westeros but extremely rare and valuable in Braavos. So the only reason Tycho would stiff-arm him like this is if the bank was in no position to loan anything, which is a sign that their coffers are running low.

And before you say this is because they were planning for the loan to Stannis, that's just as bad. If that loan is preventing the bank from doing business elsewhere, it means all their wealth is tied up with Stannis. If he dies, it is gone and the bank is done, just as Illyrio is planning.

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16 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Why wouldn't Varys be out of the loop when it comes to Petyr? He has no eyes and ears on Petyr, no way of knowing "what game Littlefinger is playing." 

Jorah was also the one who told Drogo who was behind the assassination attempt. No matter what he does, Jorah is the means for Drogo to connect this all back to Robert and seek his revenge.

It doesn't matter to Illyrio if no one lends to the crown again because the crown will be gone. There is no proof that Illyrio is fAegon's daddy, or that he wouldn't kill his own son to enrich himself. Illyrio cares about Illyrio, no one else.

This theory does have evidence. Petyr's backstory is evidence. The gap in Varys' spy network is evidence. The bank scrambling to raise cash is evidence. The faltering world economy is evidence. There is far more evidence for this than for Illyrio being fAegon's father.

The Iron Bank will not be better if/when depositors make a run. How is the Bank of Rogare faring these days?

No, calling in loans before they are due is always a sign that a bank is in trouble. It means it must sacrifice future profits because it needs cash now. Economics 101.

So if you go into a dealership to buy a car, the first thing the salesman says to you is no way, no how, impossible? If there is a reasonable deal to be made you don't start off with "no, get lost", you say "let's talk." And it was clear that the watch has all kinds of wealth in the form of wood, which is common in Westeros but extremely rare and valuable in Braavos. So the only reason Tycho would stiff-arm him like this is if the bank was in no position to loan anything, which is a sign that their coffers are running low.

And before you say this is because they were planning for the loan to Stannis, that's just as bad. If that loan is preventing the bank from doing business elsewhere, it means all their wealth is tied up with Stannis. If he dies, it is gone and the bank is done, just as Illyrio is planning.

He tries and his spy network is ilyrios only source of info..if varys doesnt know then ilyrio doesnt know, the idea that varys and his worst enemy both work with ilryrio without either  knowing is daft

He prevented her death though which was against varys and ilyrios plan.

It kinda matters to those left  out of the world economy due to it including an international cheese monger like ilyrio. Theres loads of hints hes faegons daddy and cared deeply about his mother and him ...theres 0 for this economicaly bizzare  crackpot theory.

 

Petyrs backstory isnt evidence,there is no gap persay just a competing spy network and a man careful and aware of how his enemies (cersei and varys) network works..we see the queen of thorns also quickly works it out too  to create a 'gap' shes not in on your theory either.

The bank isnt scrambling to make cash they are squeezing pressure on cersei due to her dumb move. The slave economy is about to falter yes but world economics isnt about one commodity.

 

No again its about punishing cersei and it kills your theory that they are desperately short of cash thus needed the nightwatch loan for money  if they have just had a huge transfusion of  collected gold from westerosi lords!!! Each of those loans alone is probably worth more than the one with jon

No its about playing hardball and we are clearly told jon and the banker hangle into the late night on terms! 

Ilyrio is a single rich merchant hes not operating at even remotely close to a level to bring down the largest bank on earth , if it fell hed be ruined as a trader 

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30 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

...theres 0 for this economicaly bizzare  crackpot theory.

Even if it were true it wouldn't work out the way Illyrio supposedly hopes...The IB is so interconnected with everything that if the bank fails, so does everything else. Illyrio won't be spared the fallout.

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3 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Also people in Westeros are not just going to allow slave raids or sell themselves into slavery.

Yeah id dont get the guys train of thought at all ,  the iron bank is somehow  suddenly short of cash?  but even if they were utterly desperate we hear of them calling in lords loans thus they just got themselves a huge cash injectection!!! 

Westeros economy is we must rememebr a small part of a rich world grmm has given us plus their debt isnt that huge! (Esp if we take 'anguyconomics'  as canon and not a grmm.accident :)

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I don’t think the world economy in Planetos is as inter-dependent as a modern economy, so one institution failing won’t have the same ripple effects we’re used to seeing. Moreover we’re not even sure how the IB uses it’s capital other than other loans, so liquidity shouldn’t be able to get too out of hand. A lot of this is guessing based on RL ~ parallels, so early/medieval banking, so like the Templar’s or getting later like the…can’t remember the full name, but ____ Bank of Siena, which was originally a kind of Salvation Army type of deal for religious charity through like pawnshop transactions and then later loans. So not too exposed, as they would not operate under the normalization that modern banking does, so they would be very reluctant to have much more out than in, if you get me. 
 

Now the downside of that is that they would be MUCH more vulnerable to an old fashioned bank robbery. The cash, or at least a lot of it, is there, in the banks. If you managed to rob them blind, that might well bring down the institution and might seriously affect Braavos. They might not keep it all in one or two locations, but if you got their primary holdings you could do serious damage. But I think that would mostly just affect Braavos, I don’t think the Planetos economy relies on loans, period, either from the IB or any other, it’s primarily a basic economy. The Dothraki seem to be the prime economic movers in Essos and they have a very simple economic system.

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7 hours ago, James Arryn said:

I don’t think the world economy in Planetos is as inter-dependent as a modern economy, so one institution failing won’t have the same ripple effects we’re used to seeing.

Usually I would agree but the Iron Bank has been an especially successful bank for hundreds of years so I would expect it to be more wrapped up in things than usual. Add to the fact that they appear to have stamped out a lot of the competition as we only here of one/two other significant banks - the collapsed Rogare Bank and the Bank of Oldtown which I am not sure still exists as of the main series. Now there could be more but I doubt they would be on the scale of the Iron Bank. Obviously you can borrow from other people but I doubt those deals are as favourable or that you could borrow as much as you could from the Bank. Also even if a hypothetical collapse of the IB doesn't effect everyone I would imagine Pentos would still be badly hit as they are near Braavos and likely have lots of trade with them courtesy of being neighbours. 

Also, from a narrative perspective I doubt the Bank will collapse, they have just signed a deal with the Watch and Justin Massey is heading over to visit, and we will want to see how Braavos reacts to Daenerys. Finally, the Iron Throne collapsing while the Iron Bank remains would send a message about the ideas of money and wealth and free enterprise and so on outlasting monarchy.

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4 minutes ago, Aline de Gavrillac said:

Westeros will become part of a larger empire consisting of Ghiscari, Dothraki, and Westerosi.  The formation of this empire will be accomplished through war but also through marriages.  I expect Dany may have to marry local powers to build this empire.  

I really doubt God-Empress Daenerys is what the author has in mind.

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1 hour ago, Aline de Gavrillac said:

Westeros will become part of a larger empire consisting of Ghiscari, Dothraki, and Westerosi.  The formation of this empire will be accomplished through war but also through marriages.  I expect Dany may have to marry local powers to build this empire.  

Yi ti may have something to say about that shit

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12 hours ago, James Arryn said:

I don’t think the world economy in Planetos is as inter-dependent as a modern economy, so one institution failing won’t have the same ripple effects we’re used to seeing. Moreover we’re not even sure how the IB uses it’s capital other than other loans, so liquidity shouldn’t be able to get too out of hand. A lot of this is guessing based on RL ~ parallels, so early/medieval banking, so like the Templar’s or getting later like the…can’t remember the full name, but ____ Bank of Siena, which was originally a kind of Salvation Army type of deal for religious charity through like pawnshop transactions and then later loans. So not too exposed, as they would not operate under the normalization that modern banking does, so they would be very reluctant to have much more out than in, if you get me. 
 

Now the downside of that is that they would be MUCH more vulnerable to an old fashioned bank robbery. The cash, or at least a lot of it, is there, in the banks. If you managed to rob them blind, that might well bring down the institution and might seriously affect Braavos. They might not keep it all in one or two locations, but if you got their primary holdings you could do serious damage. But I think that would mostly just affect Braavos, I don’t think the Planetos economy relies on loans, period, either from the IB or any other, it’s primarily a basic economy. The Dothraki seem to be the prime economic movers in Essos and they have a very simple economic system.

This

 

The complex modern financial derivatives and products  that exist now that can have banks leveraged for many times their holdings dont exist in planeteos yet! The currencies are all  still gold+ silver backed seemingly.

Id say the IB keeps its gold.spread.out and prob based on tradition extremely well protected (also if the faceless men and ib are connected or at least co dependant the  no one is robbing them ever or even surviving planning a robbery)  that said we hear of multiple smaller banks so even somehow if the IB collapsed the financial vacum would be filled by one or more likely multiple smaller banks! 

Only making anguy master of coin AND head of the IB  could break the worldwide economy!!!

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23 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

He tries and his spy network is ilyrios only source of info..if varys doesnt know then ilyrio doesnt know, the idea that varys and his worst enemy both work with ilryrio without either  knowing is daft

He prevented her death though which was against varys and ilyrios plan.

I

Exactly, on the surface of this little operation, if Varys does not know, then Illyrio does not know. But they do know that Petyr is the only person in the kingdom who's activities and motives remain hidden, and they also know that he is jeopardizing his plans. So if they know this, why aren't they concerned about it? Why are no steps taken to penetrate this secrecy, like they've done with all other people of power? This is Illyrio's scheme, after all, why is he not holding Varys' feet to the fire to figure out why the MoC is always in the way? I submit the answer is that he already knows, and it is in perfect keeping with his true plan, which is to destroy the Iron Bank.

I never said Littlefinger did not know about Varys and Illyrio, just that Varys does not know about Littlefinger and Illyrio. And what's so daft about it? This is how political intrigue works. Does Cersei know Varys is working with Illyrio? Did Ned?

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He prevented her death though which was against varys and ilyrios plan.

No, the plan was to goad Drogo into attacking Westeros now, not later. It worked like a charm. What would not have worked is if they hired a faceless man, because there would be no way to tie it back to Robert. Littlefinger did that.

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It kinda matters to those left  out of the world economy due to it including an international cheese monger like ilyrio. Theres loads of hints hes faegons daddy and cared deeply about his mother and him ...theres 0 for this economicaly bizzare  crackpot theory.

What does Illyrio care if anyone is left out of the world economy. The world economy will be a shambles for years, except for him. He now has the highest concentration of wealth on the Narrow Sea and a partner in control of all the ports on the Westerosi side. Why would he care that there is no more iron throne? What are you even talking about?

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Petyrs backstory isnt evidence,there is no gap persay just a competing spy network and a man careful and aware of how his enemies (cersei and varys) network works..we see the queen of thorns also quickly works it out too  to create a 'gap' shes not in on your theory either.

Petyr's backstory is utterly impossible unless he has a financial backer. How could be collecting three times all the other agents without howls of protest from the merchants? That money has to come from somewhere, so Petyr is either overcharging his assignments or he is charging the right amounts and exposing all the other collectors, including the chief, as either crooked, incompetent or both. Either way, the people who are paying one rate just a short time ago are now paying three times that amount, but only when Peter is on the job. Docks are very dangerous places, run by powerful men who use thugs and press gangs to make sure everything goes to their liking. A skinny little lordling, with no money and no men-at-arms, who rocks the boat like this would get a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea. The only way he could pull this off and make everyone happy is if he had a backer, one wealthy enough to pad his receipts and pay off or eliminate anyone who might start asking questions. Again, heed the lesson of the sealord's cat. Words are wind. Just because someone says it's true doesn't mean it is.

And of course there is a "gap", if I understand you correctly. Varys has no idea what Petyr is doing, or why. He is the only person of power that he cannot penetrate. I'm not sure what you're on about with Lady Olenna, but yes, she is not part of this theory. She's playing her own game.

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No again its about punishing cersei and it kills your theory that they are desperately short of cash thus needed the nightwatch loan for money  if they have just had a huge transfusion of  collected gold from westerosi lords!!! Each of those loans alone is probably worth more than the one with jon

The bank may have called in the loans but that doesn't mean they have the money, or that they ever will. If the gold is gone, it's gone, and killing the lord who doesn't repay will not make it magically appear. Again, this is not Essos, it's Westeros. It's different on this side of the sea.

Yes, the bank is trying to pressure Cersei, but it's only going to end up hurting them. There is no gold. The coffers are empty. We've heard the same thing from three successive Masters of Coin, including Petyr. Cersei cannot pay anything back even if she wanted to. The bank is screwed, and it's only a matter of time before depositors realize this.

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No its about playing hardball and we are clearly told jon and the banker hangle into the late night on terms! 

Yes, like I said, the negotiations were long and difficult. Why? If this is such a minor thing for the bank then there should have been no problem; either give them their piddling loan or tell them to get lost. The fact that it happened this way is evidence that the bank does need the money.

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Ilyrio is a single rich merchant hes not operating at even remotely close to a level to bring down the largest bank on earth , if it fell hed be ruined as a trader 

Illyrio is one of the wealthiest men in the known world. But even he is not wealthy enough to bring down the Iron Bank on his own, thus the plan. Get the bank to overextend itself in unrecoverable loans and let the loss of confidence among depositors do the rest. Then his wealth is even greater and he funds all the trade that remains, through the depression, the recovery and afterward.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I really doubt God-Empress Daenerys is what the author has in mind.

I'm not sure. She won't abandon the ghiscari nor do I think she will leave the Dothraki to their fate. I do think she's going to successfully fight off the war that's started against her and and along the way subjugate Pentos because her and Dornes honor demand it. This leaves her already with an empire to rival the Freehold.

Which just leaves Westeros. Also seemingly ripe for the taking

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28 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Also seemingly ripe for the taking

Taking =/= holding though. Maintaining a more 'classical style' empire across two continents that have no land connection with one another is going to be very hard with the level of technology they have. Valyria was only present on one continent. We already saw what happened when Daenerys left Astapor for Meereen and that was one city comparatively close by. Realistically a choice needs to be made between Westeros and Essos.

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18 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Taking =/= holding though. Maintaining a more 'classical style' empire across two continents that have no land connection with one another is going to be very hard with the level of technology they have. Valyria was only present on one continent. We already saw what happened when Daenerys left Astapor for Meereen and that was one city comparatively close by. Realistically a choice needs to be made between Westeros and Essos.

Dany definitely abandoned Aspator to it's fate, while in Yunaki she trusted her enemy who bent the knee to remain bent. Both were disastrous. She definitely does not want to repeat that tragedy in Meereen and wants to administer it as it's queen in the name of justice. I don't see that changing. And while the pull of KL isn't as strong as it was in agot, it's still a constant in her and many advisors minds.

Why realistic? Its fantasy. Dany has dragons that can get her or her two other riders to anyplace in the globe fairly quickly. There's also characters that can skinchange and tell the weather across the narrow sea as there are glass candles that function like some type of land line.

So I do think she can create an empire and hold one in the classical style. But their classical style, not ours. 

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