Do you guys think that the Iron Throne and the 7K as a single entity will survive the ending of the series?

[Craving Peaches]

Just now, Hugorfonics said:

Why realistic? Its fantasy. Dany has dragons that can get her or her two other riders to anyplace in the globe fairly quickly.

But a big point is that you can't hold things with dragons, and conquering is not the same as holding.

[Hugorfonics]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

Um...Daenerys?

Yea, what's with them! All of Essos is marching against Dany, all except a few. Like the slave city, founded on slaves and fighting enslavers. So naturally, they offer no support and when Cersei defaulted, around the time Essos is marching against Dany, the bank sends a blank check to Dragonstone.

Like, I think Stannis is a brilliant commander and negotiator, but mainly because of his work against Mance. The blank check was sent out before that then. When nearly everyone thought Stannis was done, and Aerys' kid was a dragon having aspiring conquerer. Sketchy.

 

6 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

But a big point is that you can't hold things with dragons, and conquering is not the same as holding.

Nothing is guaranteed, but dragons are scary. In Essos they call her mysha or the stallion so I don't see much rebellion in Essos, and in Westeros many are used to their Targaryen overlords, probably some even want em back when paying homage to Frey and Lannister.

I definitely don't think it's a coincidence that her ancestors empire of the Freehold is now in construct and her father's kingdom of Westeros is in the midst of like a 20 teamed civil war

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Exactly, on the surface of this little operation, if Varys does not know, then Illyrio does not know. But they do know that Petyr is the only person in the kingdom who's activities and motives remain hidden, and they also know that he is jeopardizing his plans. So if they know this, why aren't they concerned about it? Why are no steps taken to penetrate this secrecy, like they've done with all other people of power? This is Illyrio's scheme, after all, why is he not holding Varys' feet to the fire to figure out why the MoC is always in the way? I submit the answer is that he already knows, and it is in perfect keeping with his true plan, which is to destroy the Iron Bank.

I never said Littlefinger did not know about Varys and Illyrio, just that Varys does not know about Littlefinger and Illyrio. And what's so daft about it? This is how political intrigue works. Does Cersei know Varys is working with Illyrio? Did Ned?

No, the plan was to goad Drogo into attacking Westeros now, not later. It worked like a charm. What would not have worked is if they hired a faceless man, because there would be no way to tie it back to Robert. Littlefinger did that.

What does Illyrio care if anyone is left out of the world economy. The world economy will be a shambles for years, except for him. He now has the highest concentration of wealth on the Narrow Sea and a partner in control of all the ports on the Westerosi side. Why would he care that there is no more iron throne? What are you even talking about?

Petyr's backstory is utterly impossible unless he has a financial backer. How could be collecting three times all the other agents without howls of protest from the merchants? That money has to come from somewhere, so Petyr is either overcharging his assignments or he is charging the right amounts and exposing all the other collectors, including the chief, as either crooked, incompetent or both. Either way, the people who are paying one rate just a short time ago are now paying three times that amount, but only when Peter is on the job. Docks are very dangerous places, run by powerful men who use thugs and press gangs to make sure everything goes to their liking. A skinny little lordling, with no money and no men-at-arms, who rocks the boat like this would get a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea. The only way he could pull this off and make everyone happy is if he had a backer, one wealthy enough to pad his receipts and pay off or eliminate anyone who might start asking questions. Again, heed the lesson of the sealord's cat. Words are wind. Just because someone says it's true doesn't mean it is.

And of course there is a "gap", if I understand you correctly. Varys has no idea what Petyr is doing, or why. He is the only person of power that he cannot penetrate. I'm not sure what you're on about with Lady Olenna, but yes, she is not part of this theory. She's playing her own game.

The bank may have called in the loans but that doesn't mean they have the money, or that they ever will. If the gold is gone, it's gone, and killing the lord who doesn't repay will not make it magically appear. Again, this is not Essos, it's Westeros. It's different on this side of the sea.

Yes, the bank is trying to pressure Cersei, but it's only going to end up hurting them. There is no gold. The coffers are empty. We've heard the same thing from three successive Masters of Coin, including Petyr. Cersei cannot pay anything back even if she wanted to. The bank is screwed, and it's only a matter of time before depositors realize this.

Yes, like I said, the negotiations were long and difficult. Why? If this is such a minor thing for the bank then there should have been no problem; either give them their piddling loan or tell them to get lost. The fact that it happened this way is evidence that the bank does need the money.

Illyrio is one of the wealthiest men in the known world. But even he is not wealthy enough to bring down the Iron Bank on his own, thus the plan. Get the bank to overextend itself in unrecoverable loans and let the loss of confidence among depositors do the rest. Then his wealth is even greater and he funds all the trade that remains, through the depression, the recovery and afterward.

 

 

Both sides ate trying go penetrate each others secrecy  its easier saif than done with another spy master, ilyrio and vays are partners he cant 'hold his feet over the fire' and theres no way ilyrio coupd possibly meet and deal with lf without varys knowing...ilyrios very spy network is varys

Its daft as the spy part of ilyrio and varys network is run by varys and ilyrio the fianances , the idea ilyrio could keep somethin so huge secret from him makes 0 sense

Yes but  it was jorah who stopped the posioner ...killing dany and telling drogo achieves the same goal as an attempt on her life and telling him

 

He cares as his entire wealth is dependant on global trade as are the ports, his safety as a rich man in a state with 0 serious  military  is dependant on world stability.we know hes very wealthy not the richest 

It could be that if he neeeed a  backer or backers ii is  any number of people! or it could be simply petyr is smarter than other lords + as we hear sacked all the previous money collectors etc  all probably had positions due to nepotism rather thn skill and replaced them.with his own sharper guys. We see he  invested rather than  let gold sit idle , probably collected dues that were going 'missing' at the various levels of the pyramid and found new taxes+ charges to bleed lords/merchants just enough.that they dont complain

and as for ' muscle'  he was sent there by jon arryn...his muscle is both the power of  fueudal lord over his subjects ie life and death   and as we see petyr is very sharp at finding muscle for hire!!

 

He cannot penetrate it as petyr has his own men watching at all times, stays in his brothels far from varys secret tunnels , is aware there could be little birds around so is cautious (just as the queen of thorns was)   has no partner or master to awnser to so doesnt need to have meetings to be eavesdropped on 

As far as we know none of the lords didnt pay their debts ...the cash was collected 

The debt of westeros is just one nation and easily payable (kevan himself was gonna open the lannister mines pay it off and possibly.open his own counter bank) its not gonna break the worlds economy...esp.not now the faiths debt is scrubbed.

Lol try getting a loan from a billion dollar bank and see how easy it is....the ib are buisnessnessmen and like all theyd try anf get as good a deal as possible...they saw jon snow comming basicaly

Somehow crash world economy = profit awesome, a trader destroying world trade using debt of one nation . Hes at best   about in the same wealth league as most westerosi high  lords not some bezos of westeros impssibly rich vs everyone else! The head of house lannister is unquestionably richer than him as is hightower

[Craving Peaches]

Cersei already defaulted on the IB loans and nothing happened to the IB...

Also IB is only third largest creditor to throne max, the largest creditor to the Throne is the Lannisters.

This theory overstimates the influence Illyrio will have on Aegon and underestimates the influence staying alive will have on Aegon's willingness to repay.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

Cersei already defaulted on the IB loans and nothing happened to the IB...

Also IB is only third largest creditor to throne max, the largest creditor to the Throne is the Lannisters.

This theory overstimates the influence Illyrio will have on Aegon and underestimates the influence staying alive will have on Aegon's willingness to repay.

This

it also assumes the spy network varys painstakingly built up is set up in a way that ilyrio can also use it and varys is non the wiser.

It assumes one rich man even if he was  the richest in essos (he isnt)  can take control of all the trade in the free cities with no economic rivals  or violence.

That LF as master of coin can take control of ports that arent his, that the iron bank is hurting for cash even after making multiple lords pay up , that other banks couldnt easily fill the  void if they vanished etc etc

Theres sooo many flaws  in this theory it makes stuff like daario is secretly ned seem.tame

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Um...Daenerys? If Aegon doesn't pay up she's right there...

Yes, Dany is the wildcard in all of this. But remember, she was not even expected to survive the Dothraki, let alone come away with three dragons.

I suspect this is why he sent Selmy and Groleo to Qarth the moment Jorah informed him of what happened: to get Dany back under his control before she became too powerful.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Both sides ate trying go penetrate each others secrecy  its easier saif than done with another spy master, ilyrio and vays are partners he cant 'hold his feet over the fire' and theres no way ilyrio coupd possibly meet and deal with lf without varys knowing...ilyrios very spy network is varys

Its daft as the spy part of ilyrio and varys network is run by varys and ilyrio the fianances , the idea ilyrio could keep somethin so huge secret from him makes 0 sense

Yes but  it was jorah who stopped the posioner ...killing dany and telling drogo achieves the same goal as an attempt on her life and telling him

 

Wrong. No action is taken to penetrate Petyr's secrecy. Varys is just as blind to Petyr's involvement in the Purple Wedding, and right up to the present day, as he was during this conversation. It was not hard to get eyes and ears on literally everyone else of note in the kingdom -- only Petyr is, and remains, a complete mystery,

What huge secret? Illyrio meets secretly with Petyr, the one man who Varys cannot spy on. This could be aboard a ship, in a brothel, a manse somewhere . . .  Varys has no clue. He's admitted that. And Illyrio couldn't care less.

Whether Dany lives or dies is irrelevant, so Jorah did not foil the plan, but he did do what needed to be done: inform Drogo that this was Robert's work. If he just let the both of them die, it would have all been for naught. And if an FM killed her, it would have all been for naught.

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He cares as his entire wealth is dependant on global trade as are the ports, his safety as a rich man in a state with 0 serious  military  is dependant on world stability.we know hes very wealthy not the richest 

It could be that if he neeeed a  backer or backers ii is  any number of people! or it could be simply petyr is smarter than other lords + as we hear sacked all the previous money collectors etc  all probably had positions due to nepotism rather thn skill and replaced them.with his own sharper guys. We see he  invested rather than  let gold sit idle , probably collected dues that were going 'missing' at the various levels of the pyramid and found new taxes+ charges to bleed lords/merchants just enough.that they dont complain

and as for ' muscle'  he was sent there by jon arryn...his muscle is both the power of  fueudal lord over his subjects ie life and death   and as we see petyr is very sharp at finding muscle for hire!!

Sorry, but there is no possible way you can spin the collapse of Braavos as anything but positive for Pentos and Illyrio in particular. The treaty is no longer enforceable. Pentos regains its autonomy, can raise its own army, rejoin the slave trade (the most lucrative on the planet). And in Westeros, there are no longer any Braavosi cogs unloading goods, so a major competitor to Pentos is gone, and they are in the best position geographically to take advantage of this. Illyrio starts funding the trade in all goods along the sea, making himself a nice fat pile and probably starting his own bank.

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t could be that if he neeeed a  backer or backers ii is  any number of people! or it could be simply petyr is smarter than other lords + as we hear sacked all the previous money collectors etc  all probably had positions due to nepotism rather thn skill and replaced them.with his own sharper guys. We see he  invested rather than  let gold sit idle , probably collected dues that were going 'missing' at the various levels of the pyramid and found new taxes+ charges to bleed lords/merchants just enough.that they dont complain

and as for ' muscle'  he was sent there by jon arryn...his muscle is both the power of  fueudal lord over his subjects ie life and death   and as we see petyr is very sharp at finding muscle for hire!!

He needed an enormously wealthy backer who could pad his receipts and sideline any opposition. He only became chief of customs after performing this miracle with his collections, so of course he would put his own men in place after that, but there is no way he would have gotten to that position simply by bringing in more money. That is a flat lie. He cannot "invest the gold" he is collecting. That's called stealing. He has to turn it over to the chief immediately, that very day. He cannot "find" new taxes. He's just a collector. He cannot "bleed lords/merchants" just enough so they don't complain -- any "bleeding" will cause complaints, especially when its three times what they owe. He has no money, no power, no men at arms, no way to simply impose his will on these very wealthy, powerful and connected people. It just doesn't work that way.

Jon Arryn is in King's Landing running Robert's kingdom, and so is Lysa. They are not in Gulltown babysitting Petyr. He would just disappear. He cannot hire any muscle because he doesn't have any money. He is dirt poor, barely a noble. All the muscle is already in the hire of the rich, powerful men who run the ports. This whole story is simply not possible without a backer, who would only do this to satisfy their own aims -- and the only character in the book who fills that role is Illyrio, who also has no problem that Varys is completely unaware of what Petyr is doing. All the facts to reach the right conclusion are right in front of you, just like the sealord's cat.

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As far as we know none of the lords didnt pay their debts ...the cash was collected 

Sorry, no. You're just making this up. Word only reached the small council just before Cersie was taken into custody. There is no way the money is already collected. You ask for proof of everything else, show the proof of this claim.

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The debt of westeros is just one nation and easily payable (kevan himself was gonna open the lannister mines pay it off and possibly.open his own counter bank) its not gonna break the worlds economy...esp.not now the faiths debt is scrubbed.

The debt of Westeros is likely far larger than anything the free cities would require, except perhaps Volantis. The Iron Throne sees to the needs of an entire continent, with dozens of ports and tens of thousands of castles, keeps, towns and cities. 

And as I said, it's not the amount of the loan that triggers the collapse, it's the loss of trust. The Iron Bank has built its reputation on always getting its due, until now. Yes, Kevan will pay the loan if he has to (and if he can), which is why Illyrio is angling to replace him with Aegon. Despite what you might believe Aegon is not going to honor this debt, especially since the bank is now supporting his chief rival -- depleting their coffers even further in the process. But he might be willing to honor the debts of certain key houses in exchange for their support -- even for whatever Lannister who happens to take the Rock once the main branch is extinguished. But even this leads to war all over again, Illyrio makes out because the bank will not get its money back.

Cersei erased the faith's debt, not Petyr or Varys or Illyrio. And this more than anything is probably what causes Petyr's sudden concern that no one could expect her to muck things up so fast. If the debt remained, how much influence do you think that would have to get the faith to anoint Faegon as the Rhaegar's true son and rightful king in the eyes of the gods?

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Lol try getting a loan from a billion dollar bank and see how easy it is....the ib are buisnessnessmen and like all theyd try anf get as good a deal as possible...they saw jon snow comming basicaly

Lol, walk into any bank and ask for a loan and see how many tell you no flat out without even considering it or checking your credit. Tycho can see for himself the enormous wealth the Watch has, and still it was no -- until there was a way to get cash out of the deal immediately.

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Somehow crash world economy = profit awesome, a trader destroying world trade using debt of one nation . Hes at best   about in the same wealth league as most westerosi high  lords not some bezos of westeros impssibly rich vs everyone else! The head of house lannister is unquestionably richer than him as is hightower

Somehow eliminate your oppressor and chief rival on the world stage and not plan to profit from it enormously. By this logic, no one would ever topple any king or triarch or archon because the whole world will suffer.

I never said he was impossibly richer than everyone else. This is why he has to use the bank's own money against it. Again, the amount of the loan is not what's important, it's the loss of faith. So everything you're saying here is irrelevent.

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Wrong. No action is taken to penetrate Petyr's secrecy. Varys is just as blind to Petyr's involvement in the Purple Wedding, and right up to the present day, as he was during this conversation. It was not hard to get eyes and ears on literally everyone else of note in the kingdom -- only Petyr is, and remains, a complete mystery,

What huge secret? Illyrio meets secretly with Petyr, the one man who Varys cannot spy on. This could be aboard a ship, in a brothel, a manse somewhere . . .  Varys has no clue. He's admitted that. And Illyrio couldn't care less.

Whether Dany lives or dies is irrelevant, so Jorah did not foil the plan, but he did do what needed to be done: inform Drogo that this was Robert's work. If he just let the both of them die, it would have all been for naught. And if an FM killed her, it would have all been for naught.

Sorry, but there is no possible way you can spin the collapse of Braavos as anything but positive for Pentos and Illyrio in particular. The treaty is no longer enforceable. Pentos regains its autonomy, can raise its own army, rejoin the slave trade (the most lucrative on the planet). And in Westeros, there are no longer any Braavosi cogs unloading goods, so a major competitor to Pentos is gone, and they are in the best position geographically to take advantage of this. Illyrio starts funding the trade in all goods along the sea, making himself a nice fat pile and probably starting his own bank.

He needed an enormously wealthy backer who could pad his receipts and sideline any opposition. He only became chief of customs after performing this miracle with his collections, so of course he would put his own men in place after that, but there is no way he would have gotten to that position simply by bringing in more money. That is a flat lie. He cannot "invest the gold" he is collecting. That's called stealing. He has to turn it over to the chief immediately, that very day. He cannot "find" new taxes. He's just a collector. He cannot "bleed lords/merchants" just enough so they don't complain -- any "bleeding" will cause complaints, especially when its three times what they owe. He has no money, no power, no men at arms, no way to simply impose his will on these very wealthy, powerful and connected people. It just doesn't work that way.

Jon Arryn is in King's Landing running Robert's kingdom, and so is Lysa. They are not in Gulltown babysitting Petyr. He would just disappear. He cannot hire any muscle because he doesn't have any money. He is dirt poor, barely a noble. All the muscle is already in the hire of the rich, powerful men who run the ports. This whole story is simply not possible without a backer, who would only do this to satisfy their own aims -- and the only character in the book who fills that role is Illyrio, who also has no problem that Varys is completely unaware of what Petyr is doing. All the facts to reach the right conclusion are right in front of you, just like the sealord's cat.

Sorry, no. You're just making this up. Word only reached the small council just before Cersie was taken into custody. There is no way the money is already collected. You ask for proof of everything else, show the proof of this claim.

The debt of Westeros is likely far larger than anything the free cities would require, except perhaps Volantis. The Iron Throne sees to the needs of an entire continent, with dozens of ports and tens of thousands of castles, keeps, towns and cities. 

And as I said, it's not the amount of the loan that triggers the collapse, it's the loss of trust. The Iron Bank has built its reputation on always getting its due, until now. Yes, Kevan will pay the loan if he has to (and if he can), which is why Illyrio is angling to replace him with Aegon. Despite what you might believe Aegon is not going to honor this debt, especially since the bank is now supporting his chief rival -- depleting their coffers even further in the process. But he might be willing to honor the debts of certain key houses in exchange for their support -- even for whatever Lannister who happens to take the Rock once the main branch is extinguished. But even this leads to war all over again, Illyrio makes out because the bank will not get its money back.

Cersei erased the faith's debt, not Petyr or Varys or Illyrio. And this more than anything is probably what causes Petyr's sudden concern that no one could expect her to muck things up so fast. If the debt remained, how much influence do you think that would have to get the faith to anoint Faegon as the Rhaegar's true son and rightful king in the eyes of the gods?

Lol, walk into any bank and ask for a loan and see how many tell you no flat out without even considering it or checking your credit. Tycho can see for himself the enormous wealth the Watch has, and still it was no -- until there was a way to get cash out of the deal immediately.

Somehow eliminate your oppressor and chief rival on the world stage and not plan to profit from it enormously. By this logic, no one would ever topple any king or triarch or archon because the whole world will suffer.

I never said he was impossibly richer than everyone else. This is why he has to use the bank's own money against it. Again, the amount of the loan is not what's important, it's the loss of faith. So everything you're saying here is irrelevent.

You literaly mention the plot the queen of thorns was also part of (possibly tywin too)so they were also missed by varys , he tries to penetrate petyrs secrecy just as petry tries with him.both sre too canny to each others methods to let much slip out...its 2 master spys playing the intel game 

Ilyrio is using the spy network varys built and he isnt even the spy expert half of the duo thus he cant do shit in secret , when he arrives his every move  would be known esp if he went to petyrs brothels or if petyr was gone for a few days to pentos.

Bravos would not collapse with the IB , even if somehow this plan worked and somehow the faceless men didnt know of it and somehow varys didnt know what hisnpartner or worst enemy where at....theres other banks out there and theyd simply fill the finacial vacum. Nor can  single banks collapse stop bravos vast  advantages at sea  in trade over its weaker rivals, in fact pentos has 0 military to fund and is still economicaly much  weaker than bravos (they buyslaves anyway by the way)

He became chief when lysa begged her husband to let him and he did well as hes smart with money , jon arryn doesnt need to physicaly be there its his authority  thats all required and as we see once the funds are in his control hired muscle is easy to come by! 

We hear ofnpurple saield.ships in many ports  if the bank is calling in loans it wont be long til they have the cash of their menarent already there with the lords

 

Nope kevan considers asking banks in pentos and myr for loans to pay off the iron banks loan and whoever get the throne will pay back what they owe as new regimes crace stability and not being killed.

Its not a mordern bank man the agent can haggle.with jon as he did..eventualy the terms were acceptable 

There is no loss of faith as evebtualy someone on the throne pays and the example is set regardless of consequences for not paying...its be like destroying your own kingdoms economy AND hirong assasins to come after you 24/7 at the same time..no sane lord would want that

Hes not in any postion to become richer of collapse of trade as hes a mere rich trader , other banks would fill any void anyway and bravos would still stand as a trading superpower with its enormous  unbeatable fleet!  

 

Theres so.many issues 

How is ilyrio managing to outspy the spymaster part of their partnership?  Why even bother then ?varys rivalry with petry becomes expensive and counterproductive compared to them being allies

Why would ilyrio select young petyr and just know hed make hand of the king? How would those 2 know each other?

Whats in it for current petyr that hes not already getting/capable of getting?

If a single loan is defaulted on how does that suddenly make the IB something to not be feared? 

How does a rich cheese monger take over when theres multilple other rich men and other banks thatl just fill the hole with greater ease and weather the economic chaos much easier

 

 

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

You literaly mention the plot the queen of thorns was also part of (possibly tywin too)so they were also missed by varys , he tries to penetrate petyrs secrecy just as petry tries with him.both sre too canny to each others methods to let much slip out...its 2 master spys playing the intel game 

Your sentences are becoming garbled, so it's hard to figure out what you're saying. But Lady Olenna was working with Petyr, and Varys is blind to what Petyr is doing, ergo, he doesn't know that he is working with Olenna. And this is a separate, but related, plot anyway, but it does show that even a year after Varys admits to not having eyes and ears on Petyr, nothing has been done to correct this situation despite the trouble he is causing to their plans. So again, Petyr knows exactly what Varys' is doing and how he is getting his information and takes reasonable, rational steps to outwit him, while Varys does nothing abot Petyr. And the point isn't that Varys is stumped by Petyr, but that Ilyrio doesn't care.

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Ilyrio is using the spy network varys built and he isnt even the spy expert half of the duo thus he cant do shit in secret , when he arrives his every move  would be known esp if he went to petyrs brothels or if petyr was gone for a few days to pentos.

Illyrio rose from the streets to become one of the wealthiest, most powerful men in the world by spying on people. So to say that he doesn't know how it's done is ridiculous. He knows full well how to avoid Varys' birds, since they aren't everywhere all the time. They most certainly aren't on any of his ships. And that's assuming Illyrio hasn't trained the birds to never report on his movements to Varys. He is the one supplying them after all.

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Bravos would not collapse with the IB , even if somehow this plan worked and somehow the faceless men didnt know of it and somehow varys didnt know what hisnpartner or worst enemy where at....theres other banks out there and theyd simply fill the finacial vacum. Nor can  single banks collapse stop bravos vast  advantages at sea  in trade over its weaker rivals, in fact pentos has 0 military to fund and is still economicaly much  weaker than bravos (they buyslaves anyway by the way)

Braavos would absolutely descend into chaos if the bank collapsed. You're the one who says it would ruin the entire world, but not Braavos? Every Braavosian would lose the vast majority of their wealth if the bank collapsed. The iron coin would be worthless. Prices for food, fuel and other necessities would spike as people started hoarding.

How would the FM connect any of this to Illyrio? If anything, they would go after the keyholders who looted the faults as the mob was breaking down the doors. But even that would be pointless because the gold they'd recover is a pittance to what has been lost.

Why would any other bank come to the rescue? This is a huge opportunity for them. Did other banks rescue the Rogares? The Hightowers, in fact, took the opportunity to start their own bank.

Braavos' advantage at sea is wiped out if it has no money to buy goods, pay sailors, outfit ships . . .  All of this takes money, and it's gone.

Yes, Pentos has zero military -- because Braavos forbids it. Yes, Pentos is economically weaker -- because Braavos forbids it. Yes, they still have slaves, but on the sly, under the table, and woe be to whoever gets caught. With the bank gone, Braavos cannot enforce any of this any longer, so you're simply proving my point here.

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He became chief when lysa begged her husband to let him and he did well as hes smart with money , jon arryn doesnt need to physicaly be there its his authority  thats all required and as we see once the funds are in his control hired muscle is easy to come by! 

No, he is not smart with money. No one can rub two coins together to make a third, and he cannot hire the muscle until he has accumulated the wealth first. This is not his money to invest, and he cannot keep it for himself. He has to turn it right over to his chief every day, or else the chief goes to Lord Arryn and tells him his new collector is stealing from him. Along with the fact that all the traders and merchants are screaming about being overcharged, and prices are rising because of this, Petyr would he been toast within a month. And if he just disappeared, which is easily done at a seaport, the problem is solved and all of Jon Arryn's authority cannot change that.

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We hear ofnpurple saield.ships in many ports  if the bank is calling in loans it wont be long til they have the cash of their menarent already there with the lords

Yes, purple-sailed ships in all the ports, lots of them. And once the bank is gone, there will be no more purple-sailed ships. This sudden loss of competition provides a huge opportunity for all other traders, and Pentos in the best position to capitalize. So again, how you envision that the loss of the bank will destroy trade around the world but have no affect on Braavos is beyon me.

No, just because the bank is calling in the loans doesn't mean they will get the money. It's a long way to Braavos, and most of the money will have been spent anyway. And even if they assassinate every single lord, they still won't get their money back because it's gone. And in the process, they draw down their reserves even more.

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Nope kevan considers asking banks in pentos and myr for loans to pay off the iron banks loan and whoever get the throne will pay back what they owe as new regimes crace stability and not being killed.

Yes, Kevan considers all kinds of options, and maybe one of them will work out. Thus, the need to replace his regime for Illyrio's man. And as I said, even if Aegon does decide to honor the loan, Illyrio can just have him killed. It's all the same to him because Illyrio does not care about stability in the realm. If he did, he wouldn't be trying to destabilize it.

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Its not a mordern bank man the agent can haggle.with jon as he did..eventualy the terms were acceptable 

If Tycho can haggle, why does he reject Jon's offer outright? And as I said again, the terms were acceptable only when Jon could provide an immediate cash infusion to the bank, which would have been of no consequence if the bank didn't desperately need the money.

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There is no loss of faith as evebtualy someone on the throne pays and the example is set regardless of consequences for not paying...its be like destroying your own kingdoms economy AND hirong assasins to come after you 24/7 at the same time..no sane lord would want that

Hes not in any postion to become richer of collapse of trade as hes a mere rich trader , other banks would fill any void anyway and bravos would still stand as a trading superpower with its enormous  unbeatable fleet!  

Nobody on the throne pays if there is no more throne. Eventually someone pays in Essos, because the bank can put their own man in place relatively cheaply and easily. The Iron Throne does not work that way. If Stannis dies and they, or anyone, kills Aegon, that's it, the bank has no more champions and the realm will likely devolve into seven independent kingdoms again, none of which owes a dime to the Iron Bank. So these lords are not destroying their own kingdom, Illyrio is destroying their kingdom because he stands to profit tremendously by it.

Trade will not collapse. Only Braavos' participation in it. Like you said yourself, there are plenty of other banks to fund trade in all of the free cities. But Pentos is in the best position to profit because, a) Illyrio orchestrated all of this and will have taken steps to take advantage of it, b) Pentos is geographically positioned to reach Westerosi ports the quickest, and c) their chief competition, and political oppressor, is gone. Braavos has no fleet. It has no money to pay for it. This is self-evident.

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Theres so.many issues 

How is ilyrio managing to outspy the spymaster part of their partnership?  Why even bother then ?varys rivalry with petry becomes expensive and counterproductive compared to them being allies

Why would ilyrio select young petyr and just know hed make hand of the king? How would those 2 know each other?

Whats in it for current petyr that hes not already getting/capable of getting?

If a single loan is defaulted on how does that suddenly make the IB something to not be feared? 

How does a rich cheese monger take over when theres multilple other rich men and other banks thatl just fill the hole with greater ease and weather the economic chaos much easier

They're Illyrio's birds, and he knows where they are placed and where they are not. What do you mean, why bother? To make a crap-load of money and become the dominant commercial force on the Narrow Sea. How does this become expensive and counterproductive? It's crucial to set up the collapse of the iron throne, which sets up the collapse of the iron bank.

Petyr disappears for nearly a decade after he is tossed out of Riverrun. Plenty of time to set all of this up. And he could have met Illyrio the same way Varys did, the same way Viserys did. Illyrio has his eye out for talent. Yes, it's a gamble at the start, but the plan is sound: leverage Petyr's connections with Lady Arryn, fund him to make an impression on the new Hand of the King, who is desperate to bring order to the realm, then wrack up loans that ultimately destabilizes that realm and puts the fear in depositors who had always thought their money was rock-solid in an infallible institution that has now been shown to be highly fallible. Again, it's not the amount of the loan that's important here, it's the fact that it is now unrecoverable.

Petyr ends up controlling all of the major ports on the Westerosi coast. Look at what he's done. Not only is he lord paramount of the riverlands (Maidenpool and Saltpans), he is lord protector of the Vale (Gulltown), and through Sansa stands to rule the north in her name (White Harbor). And as we've seen, he is already hoarding food knowing what's to come. He will be richer and more powerful over a divided kingdom than he could ever hope to be in a united one.

The bank has built a reputation as always getting it's due. When that reputation proves to be false, doubt sets in. Now, all that's needed is a whispering campaign that the bank is unsound, and then maybe a handful of proxies march in to withdraw their accounts, and when the bank closes its windows, panic sets in. This is exactly what happened to the Rogare Bank -- which was even larger and more powerful than the Iron Bank -- and countless banks in our own history. It doesn't matter how big you are, once trust is gone the end comes quick. And in the case of the IB, it will probably come quicker than most because its failure has always been unthinkable.

 

[astarkchoice]

On 3/17/2023 at 3:25 PM, John Suburbs said:

Your sentences are becoming garbled, so it's hard to figure out what you're saying. But Lady Olenna was working with Petyr, and Varys is blind to what Petyr is doing, ergo, he doesn't know that he is working with Olenna. And this is a separate, but related, plot anyway, but it does show that even a year after Varys admits to not having eyes and ears on Petyr, nothing has been done to correct this situation despite the trouble he is causing to their plans. So again, Petyr knows exactly what Varys' is doing and how he is getting his information and takes reasonable, rational steps to outwit him, while Varys does nothing abot Petyr. And the point isn't that Varys is stumped by Petyr, but that Ilyrio doesn't care.

Illyrio rose from the streets to become one of the wealthiest, most powerful men in the world by spying on people. So to say that he doesn't know how it's done is ridiculous. He knows full well how to avoid Varys' birds, since they aren't everywhere all the time. They most certainly aren't on any of his ships. And that's assuming Illyrio hasn't trained the birds to never report on his movements to Varys. He is the one supplying them after all.

Braavos would absolutely descend into chaos if the bank collapsed. You're the one who says it would ruin the entire world, but not Braavos? Every Braavosian would lose the vast majority of their wealth if the bank collapsed. The iron coin would be worthless. Prices for food, fuel and other necessities would spike as people started hoarding.

How would the FM connect any of this to Illyrio? If anything, they would go after the keyholders who looted the faults as the mob was breaking down the doors. But even that would be pointless because the gold they'd recover is a pittance to what has been lost.

Why would any other bank come to the rescue? This is a huge opportunity for them. Did other banks rescue the Rogares? The Hightowers, in fact, took the opportunity to start their own bank.

Braavos' advantage at sea is wiped out if it has no money to buy goods, pay sailors, outfit ships . . .  All of this takes money, and it's gone.

Yes, Pentos has zero military -- because Braavos forbids it. Yes, Pentos is economically weaker -- because Braavos forbids it. Yes, they still have slaves, but on the sly, under the table, and woe be to whoever gets caught. With the bank gone, Braavos cannot enforce any of this any longer, so you're simply proving my point here.

No, he is not smart with money. No one can rub two coins together to make a third, and he cannot hire the muscle until he has accumulated the wealth first. This is not his money to invest, and he cannot keep it for himself. He has to turn it right over to his chief every day, or else the chief goes to Lord Arryn and tells him his new collector is stealing from him. Along with the fact that all the traders and merchants are screaming about being overcharged, and prices are rising because of this, Petyr would he been toast within a month. And if he just disappeared, which is easily done at a seaport, the problem is solved and all of Jon Arryn's authority cannot change that.

Yes, purple-sailed ships in all the ports, lots of them. And once the bank is gone, there will be no more purple-sailed ships. This sudden loss of competition provides a huge opportunity for all other traders, and Pentos in the best position to capitalize. So again, how you envision that the loss of the bank will destroy trade around the world but have no affect on Braavos is beyon me.

No, just because the bank is calling in the loans doesn't mean they will get the money. It's a long way to Braavos, and most of the money will have been spent anyway. And even if they assassinate every single lord, they still won't get their money back because it's gone. And in the process, they draw down their reserves even more.

Yes, Kevan considers all kinds of options, and maybe one of them will work out. Thus, the need to replace his regime for Illyrio's man. And as I said, even if Aegon does decide to honor the loan, Illyrio can just have him killed. It's all the same to him because Illyrio does not care about stability in the realm. If he did, he wouldn't be trying to destabilize it.

If Tycho can haggle, why does he reject Jon's offer outright? And as I said again, the terms were acceptable only when Jon could provide an immediate cash infusion to the bank, which would have been of no consequence if the bank didn't desperately need the money.

Nobody on the throne pays if there is no more throne. Eventually someone pays in Essos, because the bank can put their own man in place relatively cheaply and easily. The Iron Throne does not work that way. If Stannis dies and they, or anyone, kills Aegon, that's it, the bank has no more champions and the realm will likely devolve into seven independent kingdoms again, none of which owes a dime to the Iron Bank. So these lords are not destroying their own kingdom, Illyrio is destroying their kingdom because he stands to profit tremendously by it.

Trade will not collapse. Only Braavos' participation in it. Like you said yourself, there are plenty of other banks to fund trade in all of the free cities. But Pentos is in the best position to profit because, a) Illyrio orchestrated all of this and will have taken steps to take advantage of it, b) Pentos is geographically positioned to reach Westerosi ports the quickest, and c) their chief competition, and political oppressor, is gone. Braavos has no fleet. It has no money to pay for it. This is self-evident.

They're Illyrio's birds, and he knows where they are placed and where they are not. What do you mean, why bother? To make a crap-load of money and become the dominant commercial force on the Narrow Sea. How does this become expensive and counterproductive? It's crucial to set up the collapse of the iron throne, which sets up the collapse of the iron bank.

Petyr disappears for nearly a decade after he is tossed out of Riverrun. Plenty of time to set all of this up. And he could have met Illyrio the same way Varys did, the same way Viserys did. Illyrio has his eye out for talent. Yes, it's a gamble at the start, but the plan is sound: leverage Petyr's connections with Lady Arryn, fund him to make an impression on the new Hand of the King, who is desperate to bring order to the realm, then wrack up loans that ultimately destabilizes that realm and puts the fear in depositors who had always thought their money was rock-solid in an infallible institution that has now been shown to be highly fallible. Again, it's not the amount of the loan that's important here, it's the fact that it is now unrecoverable.

Petyr ends up controlling all of the major ports on the Westerosi coast. Look at what he's done. Not only is he lord paramount of the riverlands (Maidenpool and Saltpans), he is lord protector of the Vale (Gulltown), and through Sansa stands to rule the north in her name (White Harbor). And as we've seen, he is already hoarding food knowing what's to come. He will be richer and more powerful over a divided kingdom than he could ever hope to be in a united one.

The bank has built a reputation as always getting it's due. When that reputation proves to be false, doubt sets in. Now, all that's needed is a whispering campaign that the bank is unsound, and then maybe a handful of proxies march in to withdraw their accounts, and when the bank closes its windows, panic sets in. This is exactly what happened to the Rogare Bank -- which was even larger and more powerful than the Iron Bank -- and countless banks in our own history. It doesn't matter how big you are, once trust is gone the end comes quick. And in the case of the IB, it will probably come quicker than most because its failure has always been unthinkable.

 

Lady olena speaks outside and with a singer  to drown out listeners as she knows varys operates with little birds listening to conversations and stealing/copying correspondce thus she is careful to avoid info leaks just as petyr and to a lesser extent cersi does. LF is equaly stumped about varys as he and his birds dont vist brothels and they get outside financing from ilyrio.

Sigh yes he rose with varys, varys was the spymaster and ilyrio the muscle (and later as they grew rich and fat was the one operating the  profitable international cheese buinsess end) varys is the spy trainer ilyrio just sends him mute orphans to train up! Plus petyr visting pentos or vise versa would be highly visible anyway

The world trade would be affected but bravos would still possess gold (and precious stones and metals) goods to trade and a huge fleet to  do so!  Etc theyd easily weather the IB fall far better than some  cheese trader

The faceless men info network is far in advance of ilyrio and varys as we have clearly seen and for obvious reasons too....theyd know exactly who to blame

Huh? Other banks arent gonna rescue the Ib theyl just expand their own buisnesses to  fill the gap it left behind

Erm again even with the IB gone those ships can still move goods and trade , the fleet will remain active. Even if the IB somehow collapsed and even if that somehow destroyed the bravos currency they can still use other currencies and/or gold/silver and jewels (or shit even direct old fashoned barter goods for goods) 

Yes hes very smart  with cash we are literaly told this by the smartest character in the books looking over his financial records he DOES invest gold to increase it! And no he doesnt awnser to anyone he was put in charge , plus ge isnt stupid enough to overcharge to the point of angering sailors + can easily get muscle day one by virtue of his new position.

 

 Again it will hurt bravos but will hurt smaller trade based nations harder and individual traders lile ilyrio hardest of all !!! Your plan literaly works agsint him

They are calling in loans and 0 record of them being refused  esp from lords and merchants who dont want a rep for welching on debts otherwise theyd be ruined!

Jon sweetened the deal yes but he was always gonna get a loan he just needed to haggle on terms..its always about terms

He was already master of coin and now he isntz he cannot control any westeros port..this again makes 0 sense 

Even if the iron throne gets out of its debt by not existing anymore and by people dying all the time thats hardly cause for a run ..99%, of all lords will still need to pay the bank back regardless or end up dead

Your plan means ilyrio literaly gets aegon on the throne ...ie a position of actual significant power and then lets that go to bring down a bank whos buisness will just be snapped up by smaller competitors anyway and bor will bravos enormous trade fleet suddenly be out of work just becsuse trade has taken a hit.

 

 

 

 

[John Suburbs]

On 3/17/2023 at 4:47 PM, astarkchoice said:

Lady olena speaks outside and with a singer  to drown out listeners as she knows varys operates with little birds listening to conversations and stealing/copying correspondce thus she is careful to avoid info leaks just as petyr and to a lesser extent cersi does. LF is equaly stumped about varys as he and his birds dont vist brothels and they get outside financing from ilyrio.

Sigh yes he rose with varys, varys was the spymaster and ilyrio the muscle (and later as they grew rich and fat was the one operating the  profitable international cheese buinsess end) varys is the spy trainer ilyrio just sends him mute orphans to train up! Plus petyr visting pentos or vise versa would be highly visible anyway

The world trade would be affected but bravos would still possess gold (and precious stones and metals) goods to trade and a huge fleet to  do so!  Etc theyd easily weather the IB fall far better than some  cheese trader

The faceless men info network is far in advance of ilyrio and varys as we have clearly seen and for obvious reasons too....theyd know exactly who to blame

Huh? Other banks arent gonna rescue the Ib theyl just expand their own buisnesses to  fill the gap it left behind

Erm again even with the IB gone those ships can still move goods and trade , the fleet will remain active. Even if the IB somehow collapsed and even if that somehow destroyed the bravos currency they can still use other currencies and/or gold/silver and jewels (or shit even direct old fashoned barter goods for goods) 

Yes hes very smart  with cash we are literaly told this by the smartest character in the books looking over his financial records he DOES invest gold to increase it! And no he doesnt awnser to anyone he was put in charge , plus ge isnt stupid enough to overcharge to the point of angering sailors + can easily get muscle day one by virtue of his new position.

 

 Again it will hurt bravos but will hurt smaller trade based nations harder and individual traders lile ilyrio hardest of all !!! Your plan literaly works agsint him

They are calling in loans and 0 record of them being refused  esp from lords and merchants who dont want a rep for welching on debts otherwise theyd be ruined!

Jon sweetened the deal yes but he was always gonna get a loan he just needed to haggle on terms..its always about terms

He was already master of coin and now he isntz he cannot control any westeros port..this again makes 0 sense 

Even if the iron throne gets out of its debt by not existing anymore and by people dying all the time thats hardly cause for a run ..99%, of all lords will still need to pay the bank back regardless or end up dead

Your plan means ilyrio literaly gets aegon on the throne ...ie a position of actual significant power and then lets that go to bring down a bank whos buisness will just be snapped up by smaller competitors anyway and bor will bravos enormous trade fleet suddenly be out of work just becsuse trade has taken a hit.

 

 

 

 

Sorry, but you're just arguing in circles now. That's Olenna's foolproof plan to outwit Varys, loud singing? And Petyr does this as well? Every time?

Varys has a secret training academy somewhere in Westeros? It wouldn't make more sense to train them in Pentos?

The only gold in Braavos is what people have in their pockets at the moment. This is a pittance compared to what they will have deposited in the bank.

But that's all for me. Buy it, don't buy it. Whatever.

[astarkchoice]

17 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but you're just arguing in circles now. That's Olenna's foolproof plan to outwit Varys, loud singing? And Petyr does this as well? Every time?

Varys has a secret training academy somewhere in Westeros? It wouldn't make more sense to train them in Pentos?

The only gold in Braavos is what people have in their pockets at the moment. This is a pittance compared to what they will have deposited in the bank.

But that's all for me. Buy it, don't buy it. Whatever.

No it proves she knows how he operates and takes steps go avoid being heard (petyr doesnt need singers he just needs to be aware walls in some buildings may have ears)..which of course works as the purple wedding goes ahead. 

He has the entire sefret passages of the red keep and gods knows how many more buildings at his command.

But they can still trade goods they make and other banks will fill any gap soon enough anyway and bexome rich themselves

Yeah man its badly flawed esp where they literaly gets aegon on the throne...ie actual tangible power and then tosses it away!!!