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Ok more what ifs

Pycelle increases neds milk of the poppy after his clash with jamie and neds mind wanders over recent eventd  , what happens if he as hand

-demands lysa come down to KL so he can discuss jon arryns death in detail

-does the same with stannis

-asks for a dornish royal to come of the city to discuss the growing concerns with viserys/dany as they are former targ loyalists (and bulks up anti lannister faction in the city)

-same  but with tyrells (maybe decides hes also curious about renlys comment on their sisters)

 

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Before any of this can go through, Robert still dies on his hunting trip, events play out as they do in the book, and very little changes from what we see.

I don't think the Martells' Targ loyalism is really known, otherwise we wouldn't see things like Myrcella being sent there. It might be known that Oberyn harbours something of a grudge against the Lannisters for what happened to Elia, but I can't imagine anyone sees them as a back channel to Viserys and Dany, not least because remaining in contact with them would be treasonous.

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36 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Ok more what ifs

Pycelle increases neds milk of the poppy after his clash with jamie and neds mind wanders over recent eventd  , what happens if he as hand

-demands lysa come down to KL so he can discuss jon arryns death in detail

-does the same with stannis

-asks for a dornish royal to come of the city to discuss the growing concerns with viserys/dany as they are former targ loyalists (and bulks up anti lannister faction in the city)

-same  but with tyrells (maybe decides hes also curious about renlys comment on their sisters)

 

Lysa: no response

Stannis: no response

Doran Martell: "You know more than we do." 

Tyrells: We would love to discuss affairs in Westeros.  By the way, is Robb betrothed yet?

 

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3 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Before any of this can go through, Robert still dies on his hunting trip, events play out as they do in the book, and very little changes from what we see.

I don't think the Martells' Targ loyalism is really known, otherwise we wouldn't see things like Myrcella being sent there. It might be known that Oberyn harbours something of a grudge against the Lannisters for what happened to Elia, but I can't imagine anyone sees them as a back channel to Viserys and Dany, not least because remaining in contact with them would be treasonous.

Damn hadnt considered the short timeframe  lol...ok lets say he thinks of doing any of these earlier

 

Mycella being  offrered seems to be a brillant move by tyrion...it feels out the martells on their hostility to throne/possible links to the runaway targs , helps tyrions little 'find cerseis snitch'  game and by putting the condition that they move forces up the passes to keep the pro stannis matcher lords out of play he effectively neutes his opp  bit

That said we as readers know they do hate the regime and would side with targs accepting mycella just allows doran to play his good cop/meek fat little lord routine so they can set up the red viper as the 'bad cop' for their preffered  surgical strike revenege!

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3 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Lysa: no response

Stannis: no response

Doran Martell: "You know more than we do." 

Tyrells: We would love to discuss affairs in Westeros.  By the way, is Robb betrothed yet?

 

Lysa cant refuse a request from hand  of the king 

Stannis would love the chance...if only ned had declared he wanted stannis to come in open court instead of sending messages through 'dependable old'  pycelle and one easily killable message boy !!

 

Doran would have happily complied  itd fit his plans esp the shock ...ooh sorry his gouts playing up though ...the vipers come instead ! 

 

Yep thed have gottem one robb or anothet married to marge and sansa willas sewn up

 

 

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8 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Lysa cant refuse a request from hand  of the king 

Stannis would love the chance...if only ned had declared he wanted stannis to come in open court instead of sending messages through 'dependable old'  pycelle and one easily killable message boy !!

Doran would have happily complied  itd fit his plans esp the shock ...ooh sorry his gouts playing up though ...the vipers come instead ! 

Who would go get Lysa?  

Much as I would like to think Stannis would have helped Ned we know from his thoughts he loathed Ned and had nothing but bitter jealousy toward him.  I don't think Stannis would have moved to help one iota had he received any word from Ned at all. 

Ned and Oberyn?  Gads that would have been FUN to read!  Can you just imagine Ned listening to The Red Viper's take on things?  His head would have exploded.  

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21 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

Who would go get Lysa?  

Much as I would like to think Stannis would have helped Ned we know from his thoughts he loathed Ned and had nothing but bitter jealousy toward him.  I don't think Stannis would have moved to help one iota had he received any word from Ned at all. 

Ned and Oberyn?  Gads that would have been FUN to read!  Can you just imagine Ned listening to The Red Viper's take on things?  His head would have exploded.  

Ravens or general word,...she barely held the lords back from helping robb but refusing a hand of the king is another matter

 

Stannis admired ned , he was bitter he wasnt selected as hand of the king after jon but hed have assisted ned no doubt ,neither man got the chance due to ned trusting pycelle to be a neutral maester and send ravens as normal.

 

Yep plus the extra dornish muscle of his vast entourage could have been crucial

 

 

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36 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Stannis admired ned , he was bitter he wasnt selected as hand of the king after jon but hed have assisted ned no doubt ,neither man got the chance due to ned trusting pycelle to be a neutral maester and send ravens as normal.

I don't know. Stannis knows the truth about Cersei's kids and he's the only such person with an interest in exposing it, after Jon Arryn's death. After Jon dies he hopes to be made Hand, but isn't, and goes off to Dragonstone - now, this might be because he feared for his life, but what puzzles me is why he waited until the confirmation that he wasn't the next Hand to do so? Being Hand clearly didn't protect him from being murdered, as it hadn't Jon Arryn.

He also knows at this point that Ned is going to be asked to be the next Hand. He has plenty of time to get to Dragonstone and send Ned a raven laying out, if not all the details of what he knows, at least what questions he needs to be asking, to get Ned up to speed with where Jon Arryn was. This raven would arrive before Robert gets to Winterfell and makes the formal request. This is Stannis's best chance of exposing the conspiracy. It's also the best opportunity to take the Lannisters down, because if Ned learns the truth while he's in the North, he doesn't have to worry about internal KL power politics or Lannister men-at-arms overcoming his own guard: he's in his own country and can grab all three of Tywin's kids, plus (probably) Lancel and Tyrek for good measure, thereby completely neutralising any Lannister retaliation. At the very least, it's forewarning Ned of what he's likely to face in KL and what he needs to look for to prove the case.

Or he could turn to the other obvious ally he has available in King's Landing, his other brother. He doesn't need to let him in on the whole truth. "Don't you think it's funny that all of us and dad and Shireen and Edric and for that matter all of Bobby's bastards that we know of have black hair, but the three royals are the spit of Cersei? Jon Arryn thought so, anyway. Course, he's dead now. Coincidence? Anyway, I'm off to Dragonstone on business for a bit; watch your back." Renly's sharp enough to put together the rest, and even if he doesn't take direct action can make himself available to Ned to assist him once he's in KL.

Stannis doesn't do any of this.

Why the hell not?

I suspect that the Doylian answer is simply because if Stannis did do this then the book series wouldn't have a plot. But any Watsonian answer that doesn't make Stannis look like a total prick is hard to come up with. Was he already being seduced by Mel's visions of him being king, and therefore decided to leave Robert to his fate? Was his pride that hurt by Robert's turning him down for Handship that he just threw his toys out of the pram and went to sulk in Dragonstone, locking his bedroom door and refusing to talk to anyone?

And even less explicably, why does it take him so long to declare his hand after Robert's death? He had more time to prepare for this than any of the other claimants and yet it takes him an age to swing into action.

I like Stannis, as of ADwD at least, but I've never heard his supporters come up with an adequate explanation for his going completely MIA at these critical plot junctures.

Edited by Alester Florent
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Mmmm, turkey....

What would happen if Tyrell comes to KL? I can't imagine anything exciting. Maybe they could play a few rounds of checkers or something.

Oberyn has been staring at his phone waiting for it to ring for the past ten years plus. So would he go anywhere if anybody invited him to anything? Yea! But once he got there he'd just sit around bored, maybe play the winner in checkers.

As long as Lord Robert is alive, his mother will baby him. Theres zero chance the Vale will fight while Lord Robert breaths.

 

All Ned has to do is talk to Stannis. But instead he keeps sending him mail through Pycelle and then gets confused when it says the package hasn't shipped yet. So he just gave the man more mail, which by now is probably overflowing the closest.

If Stannis knew Ned was planning on opening the gates for him or at least publicly supports him in his incestuous accusations, he'd be on the first boat back to KL before you have the chance to say the Lightbringer

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12 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

this might be because he feared for his life, but what puzzles me is why he waited until the confirmation that he wasn't the next Hand to do so? Being Hand clearly didn't protect him from being murdered, as it hadn't Jon Arryn.

JonA acted too slow. If Stannis were hand presumably the same day would result in Lannister execution 

14 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

He has plenty of time to get to Dragonstone and send Ned a raven laying out, if not all the details of what he knows, at least what questions he needs to be asking, to get Ned up to speed with where Jon Arryn was

Stannis doesn't know Ned nor trusts Ned. And if word leaks and Lannister gets their hands on that info it could potentially be dangerous.

16 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Or he could turn to the other obvious ally he has available in King's Landing, his other brother. He doesn't need to let him in on the whole truth.

I suppose he doesn't trust him either. (Can you blame him?)

17 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

I've never heard his supporters come up with an adequate explanation for his going completely MIA at these critical plot junctures.

He didn't want to get murdered like practically every other character in this series 

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15 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

JonA acted too slow. If Stannis were hand presumably the same day would result in Lannister execution 

Even the Hand can't act against the queen without the king signing off on it. Bob needs to be told first and Stannis is at least aware enough to recognise that it sounds a lot better coming from someone who isn't him.

15 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Stannis doesn't know Ned nor trusts Ned. And if word leaks and Lannister gets their hands on that info it could potentially be dangerous.

No moreso than it already is, though, surely? If the Lannisters/whoever have worked out what Jon Arryn knows and how, they will also be aware that Stannis clued him into it. In which case, better to get that knowledge out there ASAP because so long as you're the only person who knows, you're in danger. You know that bit in a thriller where the guy goes to tell someone some key information they've learned and they say "who else knows about this?" You always want there to be someone else.

As for not trusting Ned, he ought to know that Ned is wholly trustworthy when it comes to Robert, or at least make that assumption. He may not be wholly trustworthy when it comes to Stannis (although, in the event, he is) but since this is a matter which principally concerns Robert, he should know, based on Robert's apparently endless tales about how great Ned is and how they're basically brothers, and presumably what he witnessed of their relationship during Greyjoy's Rebellion, that when presented with evidence of Cersei's treason towards Robert, that Ned will take Robert's side.

Besides, if he doesn't trust Ned, a famously honourable man, Robert's bestie, and the new Hand, with this information, who is he going to trust with it? It's not like it's worth holding out for someone better to come along, because there isn't anyone better out there.

15 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

I suppose he doesn't trust him either. (Can you blame him?)

Yes. What has Renly done to make Stannis mistrust him? Yes, Robert gave Renly the toy Stannis wanted, but that's not Renly's fault (and I'm inclined to agree with those who suspect that had Robert given Stannis Storm's End and Renly Dragonstone then Stannis would have had an issue with that too anyway). There isn't actually any indication at any stage that Renly was anything other than entirely loyal to Robert.

15 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

He didn't want to get murdered like practically every other character in this series 

That doesn't explain why he took so long to take any action after Robert's death. Or his complete failure to do anything to bring the incest to anyone's attention after Jon Arryn's murder. And if "fear of being murdered" really was his primary motivation, what does that say about him anyway? Not the fearless crusader for lawful rectitude we would be made to believe, but a coward more interested in his own preservation than doing his duty to his king and exposing the truth.

Edited by Alester Florent
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14 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Even the Hand can't act against the queen without the king signing off on it. Bob needs to be told first.

No he doesn't. Hand acts like the king. It's how Davos was able to frustrate his king.

14 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

No moreso than it already is, though, surely? If the Lannisters/whoever have worked out what Jon Arryn knows and how, they will also be aware that Stannis clued him into it. In which case, better to get that knowledge out there ASAP because so long as you're the only person who knows, you're in danger. You know that bit in a thriller where the guy goes to tell someone some key information they've learned and they say "who else knows about this?" You always want there to be someone else.

Robert is compromised. The king is totally wrapped around Lannister fingers. If the story gets out before Stannis is ready then the entire court will treat him as a traitor 

14 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

As for not trusting Ned, he ought to know that Ned is wholly trustworthy when it comes to Robert, or at least make that assumption. He may not be wholly trustworthy when it comes to Stannis (although, in the event, he is) but since this is a matter which principally concerns Robert, he should know, based on Robert's apparently endless tales about how great Ned is and how they're basically brothers, and presumably what he witnessed of their relationship during Greyjoy's Rebellion, that when presented with evidence of Cersei's treason towards Robert, that Ned will take Robert's side.

He's not trying to bet it all on grey. Ned's reputation is honorable sure, but Stannis is gambling with his life and the realm and doesn't feel comfortable with just a reputation 

14 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Besides, if he doesn't trust Ned, a famously honourable man, Robert's bestie, and the new Hand, with this information, who is he going to trust with it? It's not like it's worth holding out for someone better to come along, because there isn't anyone better out there

Him himself and he. Stannis can't trust anybody but himself so he's only going to relay on himself 

14 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Yes. What has Renly done to make Stannis mistrust him?

Renlys sole reason for usurpation is he doesn't think anybody likes Stannis.

This is after the fact but, it's his brother so he definitely knows his character 

14 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

That doesn't explain why he took so long to take any action after Robert's death.

Renly declares like a day after, and then like the following Robb declares himself. It's very likely Stannis only found out about Robert after the fact, and probably after Renly and Robb too.

16 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Or his complete failure to do anything to bring the incest to anyone's attention after Jon Arryn's murder.

He told one guy, it killed him. He's like The Ring. 7 days... That's alot of pressure. You want him to show more people the video?

17 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

And if "fear of being murdered" really was his primary motivation, what does that say about him anyway? Not the fearless crusader for lawful rectitude we would be made to believe, but a coward more interested in his own preservation than doing his duty to his king and exposing the truth.

I wouldn't call him a crusader or a coward. Just a shrewd and alive politician.

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11 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Renlys sole reason for usurpation is he doesn't think anybody likes Stannis.

That's not really his sole reason. Self-preservation plays a role. He thinks the Lannisters want to kill him and becoming King gets him a huge Tyrell army to defend himself with. Before anyone says he could have just gone with Stannis for self-preservation, no he couldn't, because he had no idea what Stannis' intentions were as he wasn't responding to any communications.

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3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Ok more what ifs

Pycelle increases neds milk of the poppy after his clash with jamie and neds mind wanders over recent eventd  , what happens if he as hand

-demands lysa come down to KL so he can discuss jon arryns death in detail

-does the same with stannis

-asks for a dornish royal to come of the city to discuss the growing concerns with viserys/dany as they are former targ loyalists (and bulks up anti lannister faction in the city)

-same  but with tyrells (maybe decides hes also curious about renlys comment on their sisters)

 

The Faceless Men would kill Ned before he can do much to impede a Targaryen restoration. That also puts Ned in the same camp as the bad guys. He automatically becomes the bad guy because he will oppose Viserys and Daenerys. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

I don't know. Stannis knows the truth about Cersei's kids and he's the only such person with an interest in exposing it, after Jon Arryn's death. After Jon dies he hopes to be made Hand, but isn't, and goes off to Dragonstone - now, this might be because he feared for his life, but what puzzles me is why he waited until the confirmation that he wasn't the next Hand to do so? Being Hand clearly didn't protect him from being murdered, as it hadn't Jon Arryn.

He also knows at this point that Ned is going to be asked to be the next Hand. He has plenty of time to get to Dragonstone and send Ned a raven laying out, if not all the details of what he knows, at least what questions he needs to be asking, to get Ned up to speed with where Jon Arryn was. This raven would arrive before Robert gets to Winterfell and makes the formal request. This is Stannis's best chance of exposing the conspiracy. It's also the best opportunity to take the Lannisters down, because if Ned learns the truth while he's in the North, he doesn't have to worry about internal KL power politics or Lannister men-at-arms overcoming his own guard: he's in his own country and can grab all three of Tywin's kids, plus (probably) Lancel and Tyrek for good measure, thereby completely neutralising any Lannister retaliation. At the very least, it's forewarning Ned of what he's likely to face in KL and what he needs to look for to prove the case.

Or he could turn to the other obvious ally he has available in King's Landing, his other brother. He doesn't need to let him in on the whole truth. "Don't you think it's funny that all of us and dad and Shireen and Edric and for that matter all of Bobby's bastards that we know of have black hair, but the three royals are the spit of Cersei? Jon Arryn thought so, anyway. Course, he's dead now. Coincidence? Anyway, I'm off to Dragonstone on business for a bit; watch your back." Renly's sharp enough to put together the rest, and even if he doesn't take direct action can make himself available to Ned to assist him once he's in KL.

Stannis doesn't do any of this.

Why the hell not?

I suspect that the Doylian answer is simply because if Stannis did do this then the book series wouldn't have a plot. But any Watsonian answer that doesn't make Stannis look like a total prick is hard to come up with. Was he already being seduced by Mel's visions of him being king, and therefore decided to leave Robert to his fate? Was his pride that hurt by Robert's turning him down for Handship that he just threw his toys out of the pram and went to sulk in Dragonstone, locking his bedroom door and refusing to talk to anyone?

And even less explicably, why does it take him so long to declare his hand after Robert's death? He had more time to prepare for this than any of the other claimants and yet it takes him an age to swing into action.

I like Stannis, as of ADwD at least, but I've never heard his supporters come up with an adequate explanation for his going completely MIA at these critical plot junctures.

It could be a combination ,stannis sending a raven saying hes the real heir sounds bitter and self serving AND he goes to dragonstone to gather what little power is there  and mercs  for the comming war (bear in mind he expects to be able walk to stormsend and assume its full strength too but renly had other plans) he is watching what happens and probably expects ned to call him as soon as he begins to smell something fishy at kl! Give him time to put the pieces together himself

The fly in it all is....neither man knows neds ravens will.never fly to dragonstone! Nor if stannis decides to send to kl they not resch ned thabks to pycelle!!! indeed we know ned finaly sent a messanger that had a little 'accident' on his way to drsgonstone

Edited by astarkchoice
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2 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The Faceless Men would kill Ned before he can do much to impede a Targaryen restoration.

Why are you assuming the Faceless Men want a Targaryen restoration?

2 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

That also puts Ned in the same camp as the bad guys. He automatically becomes the bad guy because he will oppose Viserys and Daenerys.

Oh wow, opposing two invaders, such evil! :rolleyes:

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2 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The Faceless Men would kill Ned before he can do much to impede a Targaryen restoration. That also puts Ned in the same camp as the bad guys. He automatically becomes the bad guy because he will oppose Viserys and Daenerys. 

I dont think they cared until dany birthed dragons esp as they hsd decades to fix roberts wagon

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39 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

That's not really his sole reason. Self-preservation plays a role. He thinks the Lannisters want to kill him and becoming King gets him a huge Tyrell army to defend himself with. Before anyone says he could have just gone with Stannis for self-preservation, no he couldn't, because he had no idea what Stannis' intentions were as he wasn't responding to any communications.

Prob just as important hes probably sounded out stannis as king to his in laws  before and the florent issue makes it a non starter! If he wants the reachs armed forces  hes gotta know theres no way the tryells will back what could be their own overthrowal as overlords od the reach to those stuffy big eared florents

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58 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

That's not really his sole reason. Self-preservation plays a role. He thinks the Lannisters want to kill him and becoming King gets him a huge Tyrell army to defend himself with. Before anyone says he could have just gone with Stannis for self-preservation, no he couldn't, because he had no idea what Stannis' intentions were as he wasn't responding to any communications.

He could just go to Storms End and have a sleepover with Loras if Mace says he can't have any friends over at Highgarden tonight.

The idea that usurpation and civil war is the only way to stay safe... Idk how Renly fans do it.

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I think the very best irony in the whole Stannis holing up in Dragonstone not reaching out to Ned is Ned in fact changing Robert's will to allow for Stannis' ascension.  Even Cersei was frightened of Stannis.  What a small loser of a moron Stannis turns out to really be.   And I actually enjoy him!  

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