Ned stark cold turkey

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 3/9/2023 at 11:45 AM, astarkchoice said:

I dont think they cared until dany birthed dragons esp as they hsd decades to fix roberts wagon

Jaquen was there to get rid of somebody. That somebody is anybody who stands in the way of the Targaryen restoration.  

[Alester Florent]

13 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Right right, that sounds kinda familiar.

Interesting what if scenario here, if the daughters escaped would Stannis keep them as a hostage? How would uncrowned Robb respond?

It would probably depend on how Fat Tom played it or what his exact instructions were. It might be that the Wind Witch would put into port only long enough to drop Tom off and maybe do a quick resupply, and then leave before he gets his audience with Stannis, leaving Tom to accompany Stannis back to King's Landing. It doesn't seem like Ned intended for the girls to pay a courtesy call to Stannis while they were there. And it's hard to imagine Stannis opting to seize a ship flying the colours of the Hand of the King without very good reason, so it would probably have been left to go on its way.

But if Stannis learns the girls are there, Ned is already imprisoned, and there is adequate communication, then Stannis might insist that the girls remain at Dragonstone for safety. A bit disingenuous since White Harbor is not far and his ships are in a position to block any Lannister pursuit, but also not ludicrous under the circumstances.

This would doubtless colour Robb's actions. While on the one hand he's happy to take the fight to Joff even though the Lannisters have Sansa as a hostage, Joff is already his enemy. If Stannis declares he's the legitimate king and he has both Robb's sisters with him, Robb might be more inclined to insist to his bannermen that they declare for Stannis. But that still leaves the Renly problem: Renly is the most formidable candidate in the field and while Robb feels able to seek an alliance with him on his own account, being Stannis's man would demolish that possibility. Of course, Stannis actually has a solution for this... but Robb wouldn't know this at the time he's making his decision.

[Alester Florent]

Just now, Moiraine Sedai said:

Jaquen was there to get rid of somebody. That somebody is anybody who stands in the way of the Targaryen restoration.  

Dare I ask, what evidence is there, anywhere or at all, that the Faceless Men, or Jaqen specifically, are acting in support of the Targs? And if so, which pro-Targ plot are they part of, Viserys/Dany's, Aegon's, Doran's?

[astarkchoice]

4 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Jaquen was there to get rid of somebody. That somebody is anybody who stands in the way of the Targaryen restoration.  

Doubt it he has a specific target, he gets distracted when he sees aryas.potential

[Craving Peaches]

19 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Jaquen was there to get rid of somebody. That somebody is anybody who stands in the way of the Targaryen restoration.  

Any evidence of this?

Because it seems to me like there is no reason for the FM to support the Targaryens, in fact it is more likely they would do the opposite.

[astarkchoice]

3 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Right right, that sounds kinda familiar.

Interesting what if scenario here, if the daughters escaped would Stannis keep them as a hostage? How would uncrowned Robb respond?

I think they were supposed to go to white harbour so theyd be guests of the manderlys before going on home. The 2 girls being there would be reason possibly to send cat on home plus extra stark  ally manpower at winterfell with them so theons lil gambit prob fails

Minus the loss of the girls cat mightnt let jamie out (if shes still  there and not up north) and robb would possibly not needing comfort from jeyne

[csuszka1948]

On 3/9/2023 at 7:54 PM, James Arryn said:

Occam might offer a simpler explanation for the only-man-who-knows-he-is-next-in-line-for-the-throne-he-craves-and-the-current-occupant-is-surrounded-by-deadly-enemies-he-doesn’t-know-about and with an established record of end justifies means and a fully functioning messiah complex holing up on a magic island with a murderous witch who can kill in various ways…until, gasp, that occupant dies mysteriously. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why would Stannis think that Robert is in danger? Stannis knows that the Lannister twins committed incest for more than a decade but haven't tried to kill Robert (it would make sense to wait at least until Joffrey reaches majority). At the same time, the Lannisters were able to discover the investigation led by him and Jon Arryn and quickly kill Jon Arryn (at least, that's what Stannis believes, when he applies Occam's razor) in a way that his death looked natural.   

If we use Occam's razor, we don't come to the conclusion that Stannis went to Dragonstone because he wanted his brother dead, because it wouldn't explain why he went to Jon Arryn in the first place. Instead, he fled because 1) he was afraid that the Lannisters will kill him just like they killed Jon Arryn, 2) thought that Robert won't listen to him and 3) was offended that Robert didn't name him Hand.

GRRM even said that Stannis never considered that Robert would be in danger (and he was not exactly wrong - Robert was likely in danger because Ned told Cersei that he knows about the incest and that he will tell him):

Why did Stannis sit silently on Dragonstone for months when he had reason to believe that Robert may have been in danger after Jon Arryn was murdered?
GRRM: Stannis did not have a strong enough base of power but more importantly Robert and Stannis were just not close enough. They did not get along so Stannis may not have been considering the threat to Robert as much as he would have if they had been close.

[James Arryn]

4 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Why would Stannis think that Robert is in danger? Stannis knows that the Lannister twins committed incest for more than a decade but haven't tried to kill Robert (it would make sense to wait at least until Joffrey reaches majority). At the same time, the Lannisters were able to discover the investigation led by him and Jon Arryn and quickly kill Jon Arryn (at least, that's what Stannis believes, when he applies Occam's razor) in a way that his death looked natural.   

If we use Occam's razor, we don't come to the conclusion that Stannis went to Dragonstone because he wanted his brother dead, because it wouldn't explain why he went to Jon Arryn in the first place. Instead, he fled because 1) he was afraid that the Lannisters will kill him just like they killed Jon Arryn, 2) thought that Robert won't listen to him and 3) was offended that Robert didn't name him Hand.

GRRM even said that Stannis never considered that Robert would be in danger (and he was not exactly wrong - Robert was likely in danger because Ned told Cersei that he knows about the incest and that he will tell him):

Why did Stannis sit silently on Dragonstone for months when he had reason to believe that Robert may have been in danger after Jon Arryn was murdered?
GRRM: Stannis did not have a strong enough base of power but more importantly Robert and Stannis were just not close enough. They did not get along so Stannis may not have been considering the threat to Robert as much as he would have if they had been close.

1) He of course should have known it was a danger. Just generally because they have no need for him any longer, Joff is almost old enough to rule and every day is another chance to get caught. But especially because Arryn was killed (Stannis thinks) because he knew; how do they know for sure no one else knows? If he knows, they have to assume he’ll try and find a way to tell Robert. Just think about what they are risking, what they have committed murder to cover and now the secret might be out. Killing Robert is by a mile their best move, their only safe move. And they have Robert’s doctor on their side.

 

Your 2 and 3 are fairly ridiculous excuses for not telling your brother/king that he’s in mortal danger even if he wasn’t the guy who spends his entire time as king lecturing people on their duty to their king. Sulking doesn’t excuse anything remotely this serious, and he was scared? Sure, that’s part of the deal…he sought no way for months, are you kidding me here? Occam is absolutely clear here, he left without a word to a living soul and stayed away and for some reason completely incommunicado for months on end…he was waiting for something. 

And your reading of the GRRM quote is interesting. He did NOT say Stannis did not perceive a threat, he said he didn’t think about the danger to Robert much BECAUSE he didn’t like Robert enough. That’s…well, that again fits perfectly into Occam. 

[csuszka1948]

8 hours ago, James Arryn said:

1) He of course should have known it was a danger. Just generally because they have no need for him any longer, Joff is almost old enough to rule and every day is another chance to get caught. But especially because Arryn was killed (Stannis thinks) because he knew; how do they know for sure no one else knows? If he knows, they have to assume he’ll try and find a way to tell Robert. Just think about what they are risking, what they have committed murder to cover and now the secret might be out. Killing Robert is by a mile their best move, their only safe move. And they have Robert’s doctor on their side.

 

Your 2 and 3 are fairly ridiculous excuses for not telling your brother/king that he’s in mortal danger even if he wasn’t the guy who spends his entire time as king lecturing people on their duty to their king. Sulking doesn’t excuse anything remotely this serious, and he was scared? Sure, that’s part of the deal…he sought no way for months, are you kidding me here? Occam is absolutely clear here, he left without a word to a living soul and stayed away and for some reason completely incommunicado for months on end…he was waiting for something. 

And your reading of the GRRM quote is interesting. He did NOT say Stannis did not perceive a threat, he said he didn’t think about the danger to Robert much BECAUSE he didn’t like Robert enough. That’s…well, that again fits perfectly into Occam. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1) As far as Stannis was concerned, Robert ruled 15 years without the Lannisters trying to kill him, but once Jon Arryn and Stannis discovered the truth and tried to tell it to Robert, Jon (not Robert!) was instantly killed in a way that seemed natural. 
And because Stannis wasn't that close to Robert, he didn't think about this further. I think this is the meaning of GRRM's quote - he briefly wondered whether Robert could be in danger, but rejected it because it didn't make sense on surface level (after all, Jon Arryn was killed, not Robert!) and haven't considered it further because they weren't close. It made sense to think that he was in deadly danger, not Robert - his 'ignorance' kept him alive.

Besides this, it makes sense to wait a few years to off Robert - until Joffrey reaches majority to get rid of any troubles with the regency and to make Joffrey more known and popular than just a Lannister puppet (obviously, considering Joffrey's ineptness, that would have never happened, but that's Tywin's way of thinking and Tywin is calling the shots to Pycelle). The only reason the Lannisters moved to kill Robert so soon is that Ned Stark discovered the truth and threatened to tell it to him.

2) Again, not telling Robert is a perfectly reasonable action. It looks self-serving from his side, and it may cause Robert to completely dismiss the issue and treat it like Viserys I treated the rumor about the bastardry of Rhaenyra's children. It's very difficult to convince a person like Robert (in general, anyone) that his entire reign has been a sham and that none of his children are his own, and after not being named Hand despite being the former Hand's closest confidant he would become convinced (in my opinion, rightfully) that he is not the person who should do this.

The one person he should have told is Renly - because he knew that Renly would believe him if only because it's in his self interest (his marriage plan to Margaery) and with his help he may be able to convince Robert. He could have arranged meeting and telling him while the royal family was away at Winterfell. Of course he probably didn't even think about telling it to Renly, in his eyes he was nothing more than a 'child playing at court' (something he was very wrong about). 

My point 3 is of course not a reasonable excuse, I am just mentioning it because I think it was a factor.

 

Also, Stannis' actions look like someone who fled from deadly danger (after Jon's death, it is perfectly understandable that this is what he perceives), not someone who is waiting for Robert's death to take the crown. He had an arrangement with Jon Arryn to foster his son, but after his death he didn't even mention this to Robert, didn't ask him to send Sweetrobin to Dragonstone - if he was waiting for Robert's death to take the crown, he would have definitely done this and pestered Robert about the issue to get his hands on the Lord of the Eyrie. Instead he packed up and left. 

 

The other thing I would mention (this was also mentioned by Alester Florent in his page 1 comment) that Stannis' complete inaction during AGOT makes much more sense from a Doylist than from a Watsonian perspective - that is, it is necessary because Ned Stark needs to solve the 'murder mystery' alone and Robb Stark needs to be crowned King of the North. These are important plotlines planned by GRRM from the very beginning, while Stannis as a character was added later (if I have to guess when he planned the whole Azor Ahai thing he needed someone as a 'false savior').

I am saying this because it is (arguably) in character that Stannis flees to Dragonstone and doesn't tell anyone about the incest, but it doesn't make much sense that he waits many months sending out his letters telling the truth and sends Davos to approach Stormlords instead. Yes, he has his (stupid) belief that everyone should follow the 'rightful King', but he also knows that the majority is not aware of the incest - that means that he needs to tell them why he is the 'rightful King', why they need to follow him. It would be much more in-character if he sent out his letters maybe a month after learning about Joffrey's death, just it wouldn't work well alongside the KotN plotline (Robb would likely declare for him once Catelyn connects Stannis' allegations with Bran's fall).

The people who love Stannis usually ignore his complete inaction during AGOT, because... well, it does not make much sense from a Watsonian perspective and are not in character with the Stannis we see later. (Although I think Stannis still acts as a complete asshole - a very entitled asshole at that, who would make a worse King than Renly - in ACOK, his actions make sense.)

 

Btw do I misunderstand or are you implying that Stannis used Melisandre to kill Robert (the current occupant of the throne) mysteriously? Because my impression was that he didn't seem to listen to Melisandre before the Cressen Prologue and again, he wasn't in a good position to benefit from Robert's death (a good position would be Robert being killed by the sword while Jaime is guarding the door... who do you believe the blame would fall for?).

[frenin]

12 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Why would Stannis think that Robert is in danger? Stannis knows that the Lannister twins committed incest for more than a decade but haven't tried to kill Robert

Because the secret is starting to leak and if Robert finds out gg.

Why would Stannis think Robert was killed by the Lannisters?

 

23 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

It made sense to think that he was in deadly danger, not Robert - his 'ignorance' kept him alive

He never hints he believes he's in deadly danger.

There's a reason he stayed till he realized he won't be named Hand.

 

24 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

The only reason the Lannisters moved to kill Robert so soon is that Ned Stark discovered the truth and threatened to tell it to him.

They were trying to kill Robert throughout Agot.

Once the secret starts leaking, the longer they wait, the greater the danger Robert discovers the twincest and kills them all.

 

 

26 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

if he was waiting for Robert's death to take the crown, he would have definitely done this and pestered Robert about the issue to get his hands on the Lord of the Eyrie

Robert's decision was made and he only packed up and left... After Robert had packed up and left.

 

 

 

[Craving Peaches]

24 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

2) Again, not telling Robert is a perfectly reasonable action.

Even if it is perfectly reasonable, it is still Stannis' duty to inform the King of his suspicions, regardless of how difficult it would be or that he thought Robert wouldn't listen. That's just the way it seems to work. I don't think Stannis would look kindly on someone who didn't inform him in a similar situation, no matter their excuses. Stannis failing to do his duty to the Rightful King then going on about how everyone should do their duty to the Rightful King (him) makes him look like a massive hypocrite.

[csuszka1948]

"Because the secret is starting to leak and if Robert finds out gg.

Why would Stannis think Robert was killed by the Lannisters?"

 

Why would Stannis think that the secret is well known when he leaves to Dragonstone? As far as he knows, the only ones who are aware of it beside him are Cersei, Jaime and maybe some loyal Lannister spies (but they maybe only reported that Stannis and Jon are investigating Robert's bastards). He definitely cannot predict that LF knows and he will direct Ned to investigate and that Robert will find out the truth soon.

 

"He never hints he believes he's in deadly danger.

There's a reason he stayed till he realized he won't be named Hand."

If you place yourself in Stannis POV, it's obvious that he should feel he is in deadly danger after Jon Arryn is killed in such a quick and natural manner.

He stayed maybe for two or three days, because he hoped that Robert would name him Hand and listen to him in place of Jon Arryn... but after not being named Hand, he realised that Robert wouldn't trust such an allegation from him and he was also offended. 

 

"Robert's decision was made and he only packed up and left... After Robert had packed up and left."

Yes, but if he retreated to Dragonstone because he secretly coveted the Throne (something that unconsciously might be true) and wanted his brother dead and not because he was afraid for his life, then why didn't he stay longer? Why didn't he try to convince Robert that he should foster Sweetrobin as arranged by Jon Arryn? After all, the boy would be a powerful card if he wants to be King.

[sweetsunray]

13 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Robert was likely in danger because Ned told Cersei that he knows about the incest and that he will tell him

Robert got himself killed in the dawn hours after Ned's sunset conversation with Cersei. Lancel already had his orders, before Ned confronted Cersei.

[frenin]

35 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Why would Stannis think that the secret is well known when he leaves to Dragonstone?

Well known? No.

Started leaking? Because he and Jon Arryn had found out.

 

 

36 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

He definitely cannot predict that LF knows and he will direct Ned to investigate and that Robert will find out the truth soon.

He doesn't need to know that.

All he needs to know is that before there were zero people that knew about the secret and know there's n+1 people who know about the secret.

Which means that it's likelier Robert finds out than it was before and it's more imperative to kill him before he retaliates.

 

 

40 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

If you place yourself in Stannis POV, it's obvious that he should feel he is in deadly danger after Jon Arryn is killed in such a quick and natural manner.

Except that he never says, hints or implies that, nor he nor anyone from his camp.

 

41 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

He stayed maybe for two or three days, because he hoped that Robert would name him Hand and listen to him in place of Jon Arryn... but after not being named Hand, he realised that Robert wouldn't trust such an allegation from him and he was also offended. 

He stayed because he believed the Handship was his right, he left because he felt slighted, yet again.

 

 

42 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

then why didn't he stay longer? Why didn't he try to convince Robert that he should foster Sweetrobin as arranged by Jon Arryn? After all, the boy would be a powerful card if he wants to be King

Because Robert had already left.

1) Jon Arryn dies.

2) Lysa flees, taking Robyn with him.

3) Robert leaves to Winterfell.

4) Stannis leaves to Dragonstone.

By the time Stannis leaves, Robert is already on the road. And then he takes the fleet and holes up.

 

[astarkchoice]

Stannis leaves as he didnt get position of the hand, robert is safe as long as he doesnt know and ned is unlikely to find out for some time....stannis needs the time to muster what little strength dragonstone and its surrounding islands have should it come to war. 

 

 

[csuszka1948]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, frenin said:

He doesn't need to know that.

All he needs to know is that before there were zero people that knew about the secret and know there's n+1 people who know about the secret.

Which means that it's likelier Robert finds out than it was before and it's more imperative to kill him before he retaliates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stannis knows that the Lannisters made no move to kill Robert that he is aware of, and when they investigated with Jon Arryn they killed Jon quickly in an inconspicuous way. He has reason to believe that if the Lannisters wanted Robert dead, he would be already dead, while staying KL for long is a death trap for him. That's why he doesn't think Robert is in danger.

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Except that he never says, hints or implies that, nor he nor anyone from his camp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, he wouldn't admit that he fled because he feared, would he? Varys - who knows the truth about the incest and knows about the investigation carried out by Jon and Stannis - tells Illyrio that 'Stannis and Lysa fled', and Eddard also speculates that Stannis retreated because he was afraid that the secret would cost his life.

Yes, running from a fight isn't entirely consistent with Stannis's character - but then again, Stannis' actions (more precisely, his complete lack of actions) during AGOT are not consistent with the character we get to know between ACOK and ADWD. 

1 hour ago, frenin said:

 

He stayed because he believed the Handship was his right, he left because he felt slighted, yet again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, that is true. It is one of the reasons he left. 

1 hour ago, frenin said:

 

Because Robert had already left.

1) Jon Arryn dies.

2) Lysa flees, taking Robyn with him.

3) Robert leaves to Winterfell.

4) Stannis leaves to Dragonstone.

By the time Stannis leaves, Robert is already on the road. And then he takes the fleet and holes up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, it's true. But then again, this indicates he left because 1) he felt he was in danger and wanted to plan from a safe place, 2) he felt slighted/offended over not being named Hand - not because he wanted his brother dead and himself on the Throne. 

If he really didn't feel himself in danger and coveted the Throne, he would have stayed in King's Landing, pestered Robert to force Lysa to send Sweetrobin to Drgonstone and would have collected Robert's bastards in Dragonstone as evidence for his bid to the Throne. After all, Stannis would have almost certainly won the Throne if he was in King's Landing when Robert died - ane even if he didn't, he could have fled like Renly - and with a few of Robert's bastards in his possession, many more people would have believed his claim true.

[frenin]

30 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Stannis knows that the Lannisters made no move to kill Robert that he is aware of, and when they investigated with Jon Arryn they killed Jon quickly in an inconspicuous way.

And yet he believes right away he's being murdered.

Even tho he knows Robert was killed by a boar while hunting drunk... Which is pretty much like Robert.

Not even Ned suspected foul play. Only Stannis...

 

31 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Eddard also speculates that Stannis retreated because he was afraid that the secret would cost his life.

Little did I know Eddard was Stannis or part of his camp.

 

34 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Well, he wouldn't admit that he fled because he feared, would he?

Why not?

 

35 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Yes, it's true. But then again, this indicates he left because 1) he felt he was in danger and wanted to plan from a safe place

If he felt he was in danger, he'd pull a Lysa or Renly and flee in the middle of the night.

Stannis left in the broad day, proudly taking the royal fleet with him.

There's nothing about that manner that imply fear.

 

38 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

he would have stayed in King's Landing, pestered Robert to force Lysa to send Sweetrobin to Drgonstone.

Robert wouldn't be in King's Landing for a year.

 

39 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

and would have collected Robert's bastards in Dragonstone as evidence for his bid to the Throne.

Not like he could seize Gendry or Edric.

 

40 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

After all, Stannis would have almost certainly won the Throne if he was in King's Landing when Robert died

No, he'd die right away.

It'd come down to either follow Renly's plan, which Ned opposed and blocked,or to outbribe the Gold Cloaks, impossible.

 

40 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

and with a few of Robert's bastards in his possession, many more people would have believed his claim true.

He'd need to get out there first.

[csuszka1948]

25 minutes ago, frenin said:

And yet he believes right away he's being murdered.

Even tho he knows Robert was killed by a boar while hunting drunk... Which is pretty much like Robert.

Not even Ned suspected foul play. Only Stannis...

 

Stannis only knew that Robert died, not the manner of his death, and since he already attributed Jon's death to the Lannisters, he felt confident that they were also responsible for Robert's death, especially because Robert's Hand Ned Stark - Robert's best friend - was arrested for 'trying to usurp the Throne' and was executed.

25 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

Little did I know Eddard was Stannis or part of his camp.

 

Why not?

 

If he felt he was in danger, he'd pull a Lysa or Renly and flee in the middle of the night.

Stannis left in the broad day, proudly taking the royal fleet with him.

There's nothing about that manner that imply fear.

 

Lysa had to take his son with him without anyone in KL noticing that she was leaving. In contrast, Stannis was afraid of knives in the dark or poison in KL and wanted to prepare in a safe place, so his manner of leaving was different. He left quickly and Varys calls it fleeing because that is what it is, even if it was done openly.

25 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

Robert wouldn't be in King's Landing for a year.

 

He spent less than half a year on the way and back, and if Stannis really wants to become King, then why doesn't he pester him, show evidence of the arrangements they made with Jon Arryn? Again, his motives are fear and/or being slighted, not desire to become King.  

25 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

Not like he could seize Gendry or Edric.

 

Robert had plenty of bastards and Jon and Stannis knew about many of them. He could make them or their mothers offers they wouldn't refuse (yes, there are no brothels in Dragonstone, but he could pay well for their living) - even if 6 out of 9 rejects it,the 3 that comes with him will serve as evidence (alongside of Edric, who was at Storm's End). 

25 minutes ago, frenin said:

 

No, he'd die right away.

It'd come down to either follow Renly's plan, which Ned opposed and blocked,or to outbribe the Gold Cloaks, impossible.

 

Everything would change if Stannis stayed in KL.

Still, let's imagine he arrived 2 days before Robert's death (when it is too late to prevent it) or stayed but didn't help out Ned in his investigation.

First, Ned would accept Renly's plan if it came from/was approved by Stannis, the new King, although I am not not sure that the plan to seize Cersei and her children would work or Stannis, Renly and Ned would all end up dead.

Second, the most likely option is that Stannis would decide to flee just like Renly did (they knew the political climate of KL better than Ned), and Ned would do the same, coming with Stannis to Dragonstone. They would assemble their armies and likely work together to overthrow Joffrey. 

[frenin]

6 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Stannis only knew that Robert died, not the manner of his death,

He very much knew how he died.

 

Quote

"Robert could piss in a cup and men would call it wine, but I offer them pure cold water and they squint in suspicion and mutter to each other about how queer it tastes." Stannis ground his teeth. "If someone said I had magicked myself into a boar to kill Robert, likely they would believe that as well."

 

7 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Jon's death to the Lannisters, he felt confident that they were also responsible for Robert's death, especially because Robert's Hand Ned Stark - Robert's best friend - was arrested for 'trying to usurp the Throne' and was executed.

That is a pretty absurd correlation, did he believe the Lannisters had "magicked themselves into a boar to kill Robert"?

Apparently so but according to you he did not believe Robert was in danger.

 

 

9 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Stannis was afraid of knives in the dark or poison in KL and wanted to prepare in a safe place, so his manner of leaving was different. He left quickly and Varys calls it fleeing because that is what it is, even if it was done openly.

Stannis did not leave quickly.  There is nothing hastened about his leaving, he waits his sweet time to see if he's named Hand and then groups the Royal Fleet and leaves.

In all that time he could have been done in, did not matter then.

 

12 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

and if Stannis really wants to become King, then why doesn't he pester him, show evidence of the arrangements they made with Jon Arryn? Again, his motives are fear and/or being slighted, not desire to become King.  

Because Robert had already promised him the kid to Tywin?

Why would pester Robert get him? Besides an angry rebuke? 

 

13 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Robert had plenty of bastards and Jon and Stannis knew about many of them. He could make them or their mothers offers they wouldn't refuse (yes, there are no brothels in Dragonstone, but he could pay well for their living) - even if 6 out of 9 rejects it,the 3 that comes with him will serve as evidence (alongside of Edric, who was at Storm's End). 

Jon Arryn and Stannis knew about Barra (who as a literal toddler would be unable to serve as evidence), Edric and Gendry.

 

14 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Everything would change if Stannis stayed in KL.

Such as?

 

15 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Ned would accept Renly's plan if it came from/was approved by Stannis, the new King,

No, his reasoning to refusewere Ned's main principle, he would not endanger kids.

He refused to take part in Dany's assasination attempt when it came from/ was approved by his best friend, the still King.

 

 

16 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

and Ned would do the same, coming with Stannis to Dragonstone. They would assemble their armies and likely work together to overthrow Joffrey. 

They could not flee, not with Ned's injury that is.

He'd be noticed right away and Renly was alone, Ned has two daughters. 

[csuszka1948]

4 hours ago, frenin said:

He very much knew how he died.

 

 

That is a pretty absurd correlation, did he believe the Lannisters had "magicked themselves into a boar to kill Robert"?

Apparently so but according to you he did not believe Robert was in danger.

 

He said this at the start of ADWD, did he know it at the beginning of ACOK, after sequestering himself away for months? Anyways, he didn't say that Robert was definitely murdered, that's what he said:

'She may have murdered him as well, as she murdered Jon Arryn and Ned Stark.'

 

4 hours ago, frenin said:

 

 

Stannis did not leave quickly.  There is nothing hastened about his leaving, he waits his sweet time to see if he's named Hand and then groups the Royal Fleet and leaves.

In all that time he could have been done in, did not matter then.

 

Robert left days after Jon's death to Winterfell and we are told Stannis left immediately afterwards.

4 hours ago, frenin said:

 

Because Robert had already promised him the kid to Tywin?

Why would pester Robert get him? Besides an angry rebuke? 

 

Again, this is not the action of someone who wants his brother dead and himself King. He know that the man who controls Jon Arryn's son controls the Vale, he definitely would have tried to stop this. We know how far Stannis is willing to go when he wants to be King in ACOK, but we see none of this in AGOT.

4 hours ago, frenin said:

 

Jon Arryn and Stannis knew about Barra (who as a literal toddler would be unable to serve as evidence), Edric and Gendry.

 

They definitely knew about Robert's first bastard in the Vale, and possibly more (wasn't Jon Arryn 'tasked' with taking care of Robert's bastards?). He could have told Tobbho Mott that Gendry in danger in KL and offered him to go to Dragonstone and could have made a deal with Barra's mother, as well. Again, he didn't do any of this, even though this would help him immensely if he wants to be King. 

4 hours ago, frenin said:

Such as?

 

Such as this fanfic: https://www.fanfiction.net/s/8614734/1/In-Good-Company (although the portrayal of Stannis is a bit too positive, the rest of it is right)

4 hours ago, frenin said:

 

No, his reasoning to refusewere Ned's main principle, he would not endanger kids.

He refused to take part in Dany's assasination attempt when it came from/ was approved by his best friend, the still King.

 

This wasn't an assassination attempt.

In this situation in canon, Ned was the person with authority. He wanted to confirm himself Regent with the small council and use it as a cover to take the royal family into his hands instead of unlawfully capturing them during the night and shedding blood. He also didn't trust Renly fully (just like Stannis didn't trust Ned fully) and didn't even tell him that his brother is the rightful heir.

If Stannis was already there, there would be no need to play this mummer's farce and (arguably) Stannis would be the person with authority, Ned would tell coordinate his plans with him (unlike with Renly). Once he tells him his plan to bribe the City Watch, Stannis would explain to him that Janos Slynt won't ever be loyal to him and he shouldn't even try; and explain to him that they cannot end this without bloodshed, then recommend to follow Renly's plan (if he sees it viable) or flee. 

4 hours ago, frenin said:

 

 

They could not flee, not with Ned's injury that is.

He'd be noticed right away and Renly was alone, Ned has two daughters. 

 

No, they wouldn't, because Cersei wouldn't be able to stop them until Robert dies. We know that Renly and his friends managed to flee and that even Sansa and Arya would have managed to flee to Dragonstone if not for Sansa telling Cersei his father's plans - what would stop them here, where what remains of the royal fleet would likely obey Stannis?