James Arryn Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 (edited) Stannis fans are so loyal. So, to get this latest one straight, Stannis is said to believe that Robert was in no danger. Because the truth that will mean the immediate arrest and death of the Queen, her brother, and the three heirs to the throne is being kept secret by Stannis, the King’s brother and member of his council. Who would otherwise be the heir to the throne. But he’s gonna keep that secret for the Lannisters. Indefinitely. And somehow the Lannisters know this and trust their lives to Stannis not letting Robert know. The thing that will mean their and their children’s death. Day after day. Does this make ANY sense to anyone, seriously? Just wondering every day if today a raven got through or a ship came in or w/e, if today is the day you and everyone you care for dies, but it’s cool, we’re chill about such things in Casterly Rock. And I mean, what could we possibly do about it? Kill the king? Perish the thought, Jaime, Cersei and Pycelle don’t play that way? The most obvious answer to what Stannis was waiting for is what happened. Obviously. Or he’s a complete idiot, and no one thinks that except maybe some of his most loyal fans. Edited March 22 by James Arryn Craving Peaches and Aldarion 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarkchoice Posted March 22 Author Share Posted March 22 (edited) 2 hours ago, James Arryn said: Stannis fans are so loyal. So, to get this latest one straight, Stannis is said to believe that Robert was in no danger. Because the truth that will mean the immediate arrest and death of the Queen, her brother, and the three heirs to the throne is being kept secret by Stannis, the King’s brother and member of his council. Who would otherwise be the heir to the throne. But he’s gonna keep that secret for the Lannisters. Indefinitely. And somehow the Lannisters know this and trust their lives to Stannis not letting Robert know. The thing that will mean their and their children’s death. Day after day. Does this make ANY sense to anyone, seriously? Just wondering every day if today a raven got through or a ship came in or w/e, if today is the day you and everyone you care for dies, but it’s cool, we’re chill about such things in Casterly Rock. And I mean, what could we possibly do about it? Kill the king? Perish the thought, Jaime, Cersei and Pycelle don’t play that way? The most obvious answer to what Stannis was waiting for is what happened. Obviously. Or he’s a complete idiot, and no one thinks that except maybe some of his most loyal fans. How would this raven messsge giving 'the truth' ie specualtion sound "Dear robert , i know we dont get along and what im about to write sounds crazy and self serving but your wife has cuckolded you and your 3 children are not your own. This sounds insane yes and itl sound crazier when i name the father as ser jamie lannister ....oooh and they may have killed jon arryn too. I confess dear brother this does sound like self serving bitterness and of course you will want evidence. To that end there is a book (i know how you feel about them) describing hair colours of our ancestors. The rest of the evidence are your bastards whom i believe your wife is slowly exterminating(i have no evidence of that either). I know jon arryn was old and pycelle said it was natural causes but im asking you to believe me on my my outrageous hunch over a trained grand maester with decades of experience who checked your old friends corpse." Im sure cersei was shitting herself that pycelle would allow such a letter to reach robert or that shed be in danger from a bizzare easily deniable accusation with questionable evidence at best ... im.sure she was terrified 24/7 what with all the lannsiter guards in the city, a lovestruck squire around him at all times , at least 2 kingsguard that seem to be lannsiter stooges , totaly corrupt goldcloak officers all bought and paid for, 2 clegane boys in the city and of course her lover the virtualy unstoppable killing machine alone with him most times of the day!! Edited March 22 by astarkchoice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GZ Bloodraven Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 On 3/9/2023 at 6:21 AM, astarkchoice said: Lysa cant refuse a request from hand of the king Lysa literally refused a request from the king which is why Robert's not Tywin's ward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarkchoice Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 8 hours ago, GZ Bloodraven said: Lysa literally refused a request from the king which is why Robert's not Tywin's ward. Sorry wrong phrase meant order Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csuszka1948 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) Again, if the Lannisters wanted to keep their secret, then why didn't they try to kill Robert already? Why did they target Jon Arryn? After all, if they keep fucking in secret and anyone could accidentally stumble upon them, it is always dangerous. Stannis knowing doesn't cause them to eliminate Robert, because they see that Stannis and Robert dislike each other and Robert won't believe the truth coming from Stannis's mouth. Ned Stark shouldn't pick up on the truth, because he hasn't seen Joffrey's behaviour or Robert's other bastards. One answer is that they cannot get rid of Robert in the same manner they did with Jon Arryn because of the extra protections he has (Kingsguard), but this is very unlikely. The other is that they don't want to - after all, Cersei could rope Robert into naming his twin Warden of the East and grant Sweetrobin's fostering to Tywin, and Robert dying before Joffrey becoming an adult - and therefore setting up a Regency - is not in Tywin's interest. The other thing is that it would be a 180 degree shift in Stannis' behaviour instead of a 90 degree shift, literally speaking. Until the start of AGOT, he was completely dutiful to Robert despite his dislike and perceived slights, choosing him in a very uncertain Rebellion (instead of Aerys and getting Storm's End) and bringing his suspicions about the parentage of Cersei's children to Jon Arryn (when again, he could have waited for Robert to die and proclaim himself King). Now we are supposed to believe that another perceived slight (and fear of death) causes him not only to abandon his duties - which is believable enough, everyone has a breaking point, even though this makes Stannis' talk about duty hypocritical to a degree (by the same standard, he cannot expect Robb to bend the knee when all the North received from the South was death and condemnation) - but wishing his elder brother dead. We also do not see Stannis being prepared for war when Robert dies - instead he seems to be indecisive about what to do and only picks a clear direction after many months of contemplation. This is not an action of someone who (consciously) expected his brother to drop dead. Finally I would note that Stannis' character wasn't fully formed in AGOT - he was characterized as the epitome of justice*, not duty - and his absence was necessary for a compelling plot to work. Not everything in the story has a perfect in-character explanation, especially in the first book (the entire dagger plot is an example), and here the Doylist explanation works much better than any Watsonian explanation that you are trying to find (like that he wanted Robert dead). *by someone like Varys, who is very good at understanding the motivations of characters. Also nor he nor any other character thinks Stannis was letting Robert die so that he can take the Throne - now Stannis is either pulling the wool over everyone's eyes (including the most savy 'players'), or he genuinely didn't left because he wanted his elder brother dead. This is not about being a Stannis fan. I didn't particularly like Stannis until the end of ASOS, because it was clear he desired the Throne - or more precisely, to command the same love and respect Robert (and Renly) had - despite all his denial (if he doesn't, he could have taken the Black and handed the Throne to Renly) and wasn't really caring about what ruin his actions bring to the realm. He would have made a worse King than Robb or his brother Renly because of his lack of charisma and social skills. Still, if AWOW comes out and Stannis burns his daughter in his pursuit of the Throne (like in the show) and not in a belief that it will stop the Others (this seems to be the conclusion of his character arc to me), I will concede that you were probably right, and Stannis is more motivated by ambition than duty. Edited March 23 by csuszka1948 astarkchoice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 9 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said: Again, if the Lannisters wanted to keep their secret, then why didn't they try to kill Robert already? Uhm...they did, at the melee? Cersei's original plan was to kill Stannis and Renly then kill Robert, with Stannis out of reach and Ned investigating she thought Robert should become the priority and so set about killing him first. Quote Jon Arryn put Robert Baratheon in her bed, and before he died he'd begun sniffing about her and Jaime as well. Eddard Stark took up right where Arryn had left off; his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers. So the plan was always to kill Robert, the order just changed. Robert was always in danger from the moment Jon Arryn started investigating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csuszka1948 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) So Cersei herself admits that she only tried to get rid of Robert because Ned - Robert's best friend, closest confidante - started investigating. Now the one million dollar question is, how was Stannis supposed to predict that he would do this? Ned had no reason to think that something was fishy about Jon Arryn's death, he didn't know about any of Robert's bastards (other than the first one) nor Joffrey's worst behaviours (which was the primary reason Stannis started to suspect something and Jon Arryn agreed to investigate imo - if Joffrey was shaping up to be a decent King, he would have refused), instead he betrothed his daughter to Joffrey, effectively entering an alliance with the Lannisters (at least from Stannis' point of view). There is another thing: Stannis knew (in fact, wrongly believed) that when he and Jon started investigating, the Lannisters murdered Jon, and NOT Robert. Why would he not think that the same would happen again if someone else close to Robert would came close to discovering the truth and presenting it to him (for example, Stannis sends a raven to Ned and gets him to investigate)? Stannis wasn't aware of the plot of AGOT beforehand. Edited March 23 by csuszka1948 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 7 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said: So Cersei herself admits that she only tried to get rid of Robert because Ned - Robert's best friend, closest confidante - started investigating. No, she admits she moved Robert up on the priority ladder, not that she only got rid of Robert because Ned started investigating. Quote Jon Arryn put Robert Baratheon in her bed, and before he died he'd begun sniffing about her and Jaime as well. Eddard Stark took up right where Arryn had left off; his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csuszka1948 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 15 hours ago, James Arryn said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csuszka1948 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) 23 hours ago, James Arryn said: Stannis fans are so loyal. So, to get this latest one straight, Stannis is said to believe that Robert was in no danger. Because the truth that will mean the immediate arrest and death of the Queen, her brother, and the three heirs to the throne is being kept secret by Stannis, the King’s brother and member of his council. Who would otherwise be the heir to the throne. But he’s gonna keep that secret for the Lannisters. Indefinitely. And somehow the Lannisters know this and trust their lives to Stannis not letting Robert know. The thing that will mean their and their children’s death. Day after day. Does this make ANY sense to anyone, seriously? Just wondering every day if today a raven got through or a ship came in or w/e, if today is the day you and everyone you care for dies, but it’s cool, we’re chill about such things in Casterly Rock. And I mean, what could we possibly do about it? Kill the king? Perish the thought, Jaime, Cersei and Pycelle don’t play that way? The most obvious answer to what Stannis was waiting for is what happened. Obviously. Or he’s a complete idiot, and no one thinks that except maybe some of his most loyal fans. Stannis didn't keep it secret, he told it to Jon Arryn. That alone contradicts that his desire to the Throne trumped everything else and invalidates your theory. Now, why didn't he tell it to Robert the day after Jon's death if he thought that Robert would believe him? Did Jon Arryn's death somehow spurred him to become King? No, the correct answer is that he didn't think that Robert would believe him. Astarkchoice described well how would the accusation from Stannis look like (except Stannis doesn't even have the book as evidence), do you think Robert is likely to buy it, admit that he was being made a fool his entire life, kill his wife and his supposed children and go to war with Tywin? It's not impossible - especially since Renly will probably back him and we know that Robert always wondered how if Joffrey his child -, but from Stannis's viewpoint it looks like Robert gives in to the Lannisters' every demand and doesn't value his advice, so the entire case will likely end up with Stannis punished (likely stripped of Dragonstone and his position in the Small Council). He also sees that the Lannisters are somehow powerful enough to discover their investigation and kill Jon Arryn in a manner that looks natural death despite whatever protections he put in place. Now the question is, if they are that powerful, why didn't they kill Robert instead? Stannis could easily come to the conclusion that the Lannisters do not want Robert dead (at least not yet): after all, he is a fool who gives Robert Arryn to the Lannisters and wants to name Jaime Warden of the East despite the agreement that Jon Arryn and Stannis had in place and wants to name Eddard Stark his Hand who hasn't been in the capital for 15 years and isn't aware of the politics of KL (now, I don't think that was necessarily foolishness, I just present Stannis POV), while Joffrey is not well known and if he would become King below 16 there could be issue with the Regency. (Although I think Stannis just didn't consider the possibility that they would go for Robert - after all, they are not close as GRRM said) He believes they killed Jon Arryn quickly because Jon was the person Robert would have believed the incest accusations from, and he wouldn't believe it from Stannis. He thinks the Lannisters are less afraid of him knowing the incest (yes, wrong assumption - Cersei is paranoid, and if she knew that Stannis is aware of the truth, he would have moved to eliminate him or Robert). Stannis poses a smaller risk than Jon Arryn - yes, the Lannisters need to eliminate him before Joffrey becomes King, but they are not in such a hurry as they were with Jon Arryn and two quick deaths in succession would be suspicious. If Stannis waited for Robert's death, then he acted like a complete idiot afterwards, sending Davos to individual Stormlords and hiring a few sellswords and sellsails in Dragonstone. He very much doesn't seem to have a plan for Robert's death, which doesn't make sense if he had months to prepare, but makes sense if he was sulking over not being named Hand for months. Edited March 23 by csuszka1948 Aldarion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csuszka1948 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 (edited) On 3/22/2023 at 12:08 AM, frenin said: Both. I know it is a long time since I commented at this point, so you might not answer. I just want to point out that in a previous post ( ) you admitted that Pycelle - someone who believed that Jon Arryn was poisoned by Cersei to cover up the incest - didn't believe that Robert is in danger from Cersei: " Pycelle also thought Cersei was behind Jon's poisoning because of the incest. Varys & LF knew about the incest, with the latter actually responsible for said poisoning. Renly is who we've argued about. Varys actually told Ned that Cersei was trying to get Robert killed in the melee." " Pycelle didn't think Cersei was going to kill Robert, neither LF seemed to know, neither did Barri or Renly. Varys did know however." Stannis and Pycelle had the same knowledge: Jon Arryn discovered the incest and killed before he could present the evidence to Robert. Pycelle didn't think Cersei was going to kill Robert, yet you think Stannis is somehow supposed to come to the OPPOSITE conclusion (Robert is in deadly danger)??? It makes much more sense that both Pycelle and Stannis genuinely dismissed the possility that Robert will be killed by Cersei. Edited April 3 by csuszka1948 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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