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Where Could Uncle Benjen Be?


Curled Finger
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14 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

They're not commanding Eastwatch, and Pyp was already peeved in aFfC in Sam's chapter about Jon not spending time with them anymore. But it's good to have some good men there when things go wrong at Eastwatch.

 

Him being peeved doesn't worth sheep pellet when it comes to it. They are not commanding but they are there and the place already has few men as it is, I very much doubt Hewett would have that many supporters in favour of going all stabby with LC, worse, you have yourself said giants were probably already there, they wouldn't be happy about it also. We've seen just one giant can do with Wun Wun, unless Hewett is an idiot or GRRM decides to write that bit very very bad, there should be no confrontation. Seriously, what idiot with already a handful of men, many of whose loyalties can't be trusted in this particular matter, would decide to  near two hundred giants? That's almost as many giants as the men Eastwatch had at the start of the series.

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14 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

@sweetsunray,Yikes!  Of course Eastwatch would have had it with Selyse and her obnoxious retinue.  Everyone hates Jon anyway.  Good, let Davos and his angry crew land right on their heads.  

And the recruits from Riverrun who left for Eastwatch via Maidenpool, after Edmure convinced the Blackfish to surrender Riverrun.

Anyway, Eastwatch has Lannister supporters in power at the moment, likely a Kettleback and KL recruits coming or just arriving, but also friends of Jon (who might be angry, but would not commit mutiny... certainly not Grenn), and a few very trusted men of Riverrun who may know about Robb's will via Edmure and therefore chose to take the black. We need eyes there, and Davos is the closest one. The Lannister loyalists like Hewett may capture Rickon though. 

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2 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Him being peeved doesn't worth sheep pellet when it comes to it. They are not commanding but they are there and the place already has few men as it is, I very much doubt Hewett would have that many supporters in favour of going all stabby with LC, worse, you have yourself said giants were probably already there, they wouldn't be happy about it also. We've seen just one giant can do with Wun Wun, unless Hewett is an idiot or GRRM decides to write that bit very very bad, there should be no confrontation. Seriously, what idiot with already a handful of men, many of whose loyalties can't be trusted in this particular matter, would decide to  near two hundred giants? That's almost as many giants as the men Eastwatch had at the start of the series.

Hewett doesn't need to be stabby himself. He has Bowen doing the stabbing.

No, I said Jon thinks the giants are there, and Jon would only think so, if Bowen reported him this, but there's no verification yet whether the giants were allowed through. Even if they were, the giants aren't in command of Eastwatch, and Jon didn't give them command. Giants also don't speak common tongue and don't read. Hewett can conspire all he wants: he can receive messages from King's Landing, and from other Lannister loyalists within the North, and Jon allowed direct communication between Bowen and Hewett. Hewett can hold a speech to his men or the other high ranking officers and the giants wouldn't have a clue. Or he can keep to his own council mostly and simply direct and push Bowen enough to take matters in his own hands when the time comes, and that time came in Jon's last chapter of aDwD.

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Thanks SSR, Cersei has so many plots they all get tangled up with each other.   Alliser Marsh is also late from a ranging with several others.  He threatened Jon to come back as wight looking just for him.   Can’t wait to see if that happens!

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7 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Hewett doesn't need to be stabby himself. He has Bowen doing the stabbing.

So? Are you suggesting that they will support him if he delivers a speech in favor of going stabby stab if he doesn’t stab himself? What kind of logic even is that?

10 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

No, I said Jon thinks the giants are there, and Jon would only think so, if Bowen reported him this, but there's no verification yet whether the giants were allowed through

Lol! Allowed through. Why do you think giants were sent there in the first place? Because it is where the wall ends. So you are suggesting giants will just stand and wait there, all 200 of them?  

 

13 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Even if they were, the giants aren't in command of Eastwatch, and Jon didn't give them command

Completely irrelevant

 

14 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Giants also don't speak common tongue and don't read.

So Jon will attach Leathers to Wun Wun, a single giant, as a translator but won’t send anyone to a place where there will be 200 of them? Smart move! 

 

17 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Hewett can conspire all he wants: he can receive messages from King's Landing, and from other Lannister loyalists within the North, and Jon allowed direct communication between Bowen and Hewett. Hewett can hold a speech to his men or the other high ranking officers and the giants wouldn't have a clue. Or he can keep to his own council mostly and simply direct and push Bowen enough to take matters in his own hands when the time comes, and that time came in Jon's last chapter of aDwD.

Yes he can conspire, underline that. No he can’t do anything openly. Even if he succeeds he can’t do anything openly with still so many supporters of Jon in the Watch and also 4000 wildlings.

 

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27 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

So? Are you suggesting that they will support him if he delivers a speech in favor of going stabby stab if he doesn’t stab himself? What kind of logic even is that?

No, I'm suggesting he wrote a hint to Bowen Marsh to take care of Jon.

You are using ridicule and strawman arguments. It's quite OBVIOUS that Glendon Hewett isn't at CB to go "stabby stab". And he cannot go "stabby stab" either to Jon himself directly because Jon isn't at Eastwatch.

27 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Lol! Allowed through. Why do you think giants were sent there in the first place? Because it is where the wall ends. So you are suggesting giants will just stand and wait there, all 200 of them?  

It doesnt' matter. Whether they went through or not, the giants cannot read and don't understand what Hewett may be plotting or saying or whispering.

27 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Yes he can conspire, underline that. No he can’t do anything openly. Even if he succeeds he can’t do anything openly with still so many supporters of Jon in the Watch and also 4000 wildlings.

He can do it openly the moment he believes Jon was killed and believe Stannis was killed. Slynt's cronies are stupid overconfident men who believe the Iron Throne will be their friend.

Quote

So Jon will attach Leathers to Wun Wun, a single giant, as a translator but won’t send anyone to a place where there will be 200 of them? Smart move! 

As smart as allowing Bowen Marsh to communicate with the man he wouldn't have given command of Eastwatch.

Edited by sweetsunray
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Good grief, Corvo, aren't there other wildings at Eastwatch staging or waiting to go to Hardhome?  If so, could be some or one who might know giant speak. 

Been trying to remember, Bowen was injured at the Bridge of Skulls while Mormont had his ranging and ended up dead, Mormont not, unfortunately, Marsh.  I think it was when Bowen found that out he sent a bird to KL to inform and ask for recruits.  Don't remember as to whom he sent it to.  He had communication at KL and perhaps someone from the Small Counci.  I agree that to some extent King's Landing was at least a partial driver on the mutiny.    Cersei wanted him out and Tywin also did too.  

As for Bowen sending a bird to Hewett so what?  Most had to be NW business, some other topics.  It's not that hard to figure out. 

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6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

You are using ridicule and strawman arguments. It's quite OBVIOUS that Glendon Hewett isn't at CB to go "stabby stab". And he cannot go "stabby stab" either to Jon himself directly because Jon isn't at Eastwatch.

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Not at all my point and you know it.

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It doesnt' matter. Whether they went through or not, the giants cannot read and don't understand what Hewett may be plotting or saying or whispering.

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Then make your claim according to that instead of oh no they aren't allowed, they aren't in charge etc.

From CB to Eastwatch is a certain distance, a distance Jon, who also knows the pace of the Giants and Mammoths from his time spent with them, knows. If Bowen lies about Giants reaching and if it was too early for it, Jon should've suspected.

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

He can do it openly the moment he believes Jon was killed and believe Stannis was killed. Slynt's cronies are stupid overconfident men who believe the Iron Throne will be their friend.

Quote

Yes, why not jump off top of the wall while he is at it? Would probably end up as a cleaner death and easier way to fulfill death wish.

Night's Watch had what? 600 men in total remaining? Not even that? Most of them aren't even fighting men, when the Watch was barely 1000 men it was only a third of it who were fighting men andmost of them died. A good many of the remeaining voted for Jon, if you must be reminded and this is why conspirators are well, conspiring and not doing anything openly. Some may have changed their minds since then, doesn't matter one bit with Queen's men, however few they may be, still existing in addition to 4000 wildlings and hundreds of watchmen who would at worst condone the act regardless of their voting preferences. Conspirators can CONSPIRE and that is what they did and you are hugely overestimating their confidence and stupidity. They are stupid but at least have sense enough to conspire and not make open speeches about toppling down the commander, whether before or after the fact. 

 

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

As smart as allowing Bowen Marsh to communicate with the man he wouldn't have given command of Eastwatch.

Oh and what was he supposed to do? Say stop all contact with Eastwatch? If I remember it was Clydas who is now in charge of Ravenry, are you suggesting he is in on it too?

 

Instead of putting actual logic behind your arguments, you are going with all sorts of blame.

6 hours ago, LongRider said:

Good grief, Corvo, aren't there other wildings at Eastwatch staging or waiting to go to Hardhome?  If so, could be some or one who might know giant speak. 

 

Perhaps. I can't remember if there were any wildlings at all so that's why I said sending someone. We know just what 1 giant is capable of with Wun Wun, Jon has witnessed Giants during battle even before that, if not for Leathers his confrontation at the Weirwood grove would end up with several of his men dead or wounded and he himself notes on it and suddenly he decides that it's a good idea to send 200 giants but no translator a good idea? A good idea for a powder keg maybe. 

6 hours ago, LongRider said:

Been trying to remember, Bowen was injured at the Bridge of Skulls while Mormont had his ranging and ended up dead, Mormont not, unfortunately, Marsh.  I think it was when Bowen found that out he sent a bird to KL to inform and ask for recruits.  Don't remember as to whom he sent it to.  He had communication at KL and perhaps someone from the Small Counci.  I agree that to some extent King's Landing was at least a partial driver on the mutiny.    Cersei wanted him out and Tywin also did too.  

 

Unless Clydas in the Ravenry is in on any conspiracy, no such exchanges would be continuing at the moment and I very much doubt that IT knows that the current guy in Eastwatch is a sympathizer of them. Eastwatch also no longer has it's maester because he went with Cotter Pyke.

 

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Corvo

My logic is that we get a hint to Hewett being put in command by Cotter Pyke

Quote

Calm seas today. Eleven ships set sail for Hardhome on the morning tide. Three Braavosi, four Lyseni, four of ours. Two of the Lyseni barely seaworthy. We may drown more wildlings than we save. Your command. Twenty ravens aboard, and Maester Harmune. Will send reports. I command from Talon, Tattersalt second on Blackbird, Ser Glendon holds Eastwatch.

"Dark wings, dark words?" asked Alys Karstark.

"No, my lady. This news was long awaited." Though the last part troubles me. Glendon Hewett was a seasoned man and a strong one, a sensible choice to command in Cotter Pyke's absence. But he was also as much a friend as Alliser Thorne could boast, and a crony of sorts with Janos Slynt, however briefly. Jon could still recall how Hewett had dragged him from his bed, and the feel of his boot slamming into his ribs. Not the man I would have chosen. He rolled the parchment up and slipped it into his belt.

The fish course was next, but as the pike was being boned [...] (aDwD, Jon X)

How exactly it went down is speculative at the moment, but communications were established between Bowen and Hewett. And the above passage is one of those tips you forget about in the reading and sometimes the rereading.

No need to bring Clydas into it as proofreader. No I don't think Clydas is a traitor to Jon, but he is not a maester sworn to discretion as maester Aemon was. And Cotter Pyke also took his maester with him. Both Castle Black and Eastwatch are in a communication situation where safety guards against the LC can be bypassed. In Clydas' case this is unwittingly imo.

The mutiny at CB is basically a replay of the mutiny at Craster's. Jon overhears Chett plotting by the end of aCoK and dismisses it. On the night that Chett planned to execute his plan wights attacked, and the original ringleaders of the plot were killed (Chett and Lark - Small Paul was used). But several men were recruited, and some of these survived, and though not all, some of them participated in the mutiny at Craster's.

Jon overhears Slynt, Alliser and Marsh plotting. Slynt dies and Alliser is sent on a ranging with men Jon can trust. But the men who had been recruited to be their "boots" are still there, such as Bowen and Hewett.

Now let's look at the timeline events

  • aSoS: Glendon Hewett is present when Slynt and Alliser accuse Jon of being a bastard of a traitor, and he confesses to having killed Qhorin Halfhand. He's one of the men who beat up Rattleshirt to use him as a witness against Jon
  • aDwD, Jon IX: Selyse has left Eastwatch and soured everybody there against her and therefore Stannis. She and Cotter Pyke despised one another. Cotter Pyke is also malcontent about other stuff, and isn't for this Hardhome mission, but does Jon's command. Now this is pretty much Cotter Pyke's way. He probable bitched and moaned about Jeor's commands just as well. He doesn't mean to stir bad feelings or plot mutiny. But mutineers can and will use such sentiments.
  • Jon X: Cotter Pyke left for Hardhome, and installs Glendon Hewett. He has 20 ravens with him.
  • Jon XI: Jon treats with Tormund and settles an agreement to let 4000 wildlings pass through his gate, except for the mammoths who cannot pass via CB's gate. The giants won't leave their mammoths fend for themselves and go with them to Eastwatch. Tormund reminds Jon to warn Eastwatch of their coming. Bowen expresses his belief he thinks Jon is betraying his vows by letting the wildlings pass. Bowen gets the order to count all the stuff that will be paid as toll and oversee it arriving at Eastwatch safely. With this command Jon has effectively delegated organization and communication to do with Eastwatch to Bowen. So, Bowen and Hewett commence to communicate. Hewett has no maester with him to keep it in check, and Clydas won't suspect foul-play communications between Bowen and Hewett amidst boring "accounting reports".
  • Jon XII: the wildlings pass through. Bowen has already completed his tally and sent 60 of the hostages to Eastwatch and the Shadowtower by the time Jon gets back south of the Wall. Jon receives angry words from Cotter Pyke and how he is stuck at Hardhome with dead things in the water and woods, and wildlings attacking NW men on the ships. He has 8 raven left. Pyke did not solely communicate with Jon, but certainly sent orders and plea to Eastwatch. At this point Hewett believes that there is little to no chance that Cotter Pyke will return. And he is in a position to send "help" to Hardhome, and be rid of anyone who might stand with Jon, as Longrider proposed including the wildlings and giants and mammoths, while also rousing feelings of anger against Jon with those he wants to keep. It is at this point that Hewett can feel secure enough to direct Bowen Marsh.
  • Jon XIII: Jon is setting up his plans to go on a rescue mission for Hardhome, with the easiest and shortest route going from Eastwatch. Leathers claims giants at Eastwatch will help. Selyse, Bowen and others believe this overland rescue mission is a fool's errand and that nobody can save their brothers at Hardhome or the wildlings.

It's also important to recognize that Jon's last chapter is a jump in the future in comparison to all other chapters for the rest of Westeros. Tycho Nestoris relays the information that the Golden Company was seen at the Stepstones. Tycho knows this from sailors who arrived at Braavos, before he left for Eastwatch from Braavos. In other words, by the time Tycho tells Jon this, the GC has already landed at Westeros and started its blitz conquering of castles. So, we should timeline JonCon's chapter of retaking his home around Jon IX. In that chapter JonCon and Aegon order the advance on Storm's End. Kevan's small council in the epilogue talks of reports of people witnessing the GC advancing on SE, and Mace Tyrell refusing to leave KL until his daughter is secure. That same night Kevan is murdered and a raven has arrived that Winter is here. So, the epilogue of Kevan's murder and declaring winter is between Jon IX and Jon X. Cersei's and Margaery's trials were but days away, so by Jon X, Cersei would be in charge again somewhat. 

Davos is at White Harbor when Ramsay rides south to liberate Moat Cailin from the Iron Islanders. He's locked up for 18 days, when Cersei hears of his imprisonment at White Harbor and learned the GC broke their contract with Myr and tells Kettleback to seduce Margaery. This coincides with Jon IV, where it's mentioned that Ramsay has gone south for Moat Cailin. By Cersei V she has learned that Davos was "killed" by Manderly, around the time that Roose and Ramsay are closing in on Moat Cailin. Davos is sent to find Rickon on Skagos. Manderly leaves to join Roose Bolton for Ramsay's wedding. Mel reveals to Jon that Rattleshirt is Mance and he can save Jon's sister. So, Davos left for Skagos not long after Jon VI.

That's a huge time gap between Jon VI and Jon XIII. So, basically Davos journeying to Skagos occurs before Cotter Pyke left for Hardhome and before loyalty to Jon became extremely dubious at Eastwatch. And we can project that Davos would rescue Rickon and leave for in his mind safest option physically and politically for Eastwatch exactly around the time that Cotter Pyke has sailed for Hardhome and left Hewett in charge: Jon X. So any eyes that Davos has for us on Eastwatch would fall right smack between Jon X and Jon XIII.

And Davos' arrival with Rickon at Eastwatch at this time gives Hewett an enormous incentive not just to alert the IT but the Dreadfort - he has Rickon Stark. The maester there knows of Arnulf Karstark only pretending to be an ally of Stannis, etc. By Jon XII, Hewett would come to believe that Bolton victory is certain against Stannis, and prepares Eastwatch and Bowen for this.

ETA: And yes I dismissed your arguments about the giants and Pyp and Grenn, because they are not in charge at the time of Jon X until Jon XIII. I do suspect though that Hewett's plotting and mutiny will be as short lived as Bowen. It's even quite possible if not likely that a revolt against Hewett takes place as Bowen Marsh went stabby stab, with Skagosi and wildlings taking over Eastwatch. But as short lived it was it would have done its damage to the Wall (the magical ward is gone when Jon's blood is drawn) and instead of Jon being the fatality here, I fear Rickon draws the short end. 

Because if we look at Jaime's POV timeline, Grell and Ryger decided to take the black before Jon VIII. Raff the Sweetling is to escort them to Maidenpool. Raff is in Braavos to be killed by Arya/Mercy. Kevan Lannister told Swyft to hire men for his personal guard from the Mountain's men and to travel to Braavos to negotiate with the Iron Bank. So, Grell and Ryger arrive at Maidenpool shortly before or around Jon IX and depart between IX and X, to arrive at either XII or XIII to conspire against Hewett.

Edited by sweetsunray
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7 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

My logic is that we get a hint to Hewett being put in command by Cotter Pyke

Quite a write up Sweetsunray!  I'm interested in Jon and the mutiny and this filled many of the gaps.  As you noted, what's going on in Eastwatch and who the players are needs watching, as once news of the mutiny reaches them events could happen quickly.  

The haphazard way Marsh and crew attacked Jon seems to indicate the conspiracy wasn't that tight.  By that I mean whatever Hewett may have written to Bowen, he may have been given it greater importance than it warranted.  Lastly, Marsh was groomed by Thorne, Slynt and others into acting in this situation.  He's a weak man who just wants to count spoons, and they worked on his dislike for Jon Snow and changes in the Watch.  With his hatred of the wildings and fears of attacks by the Others and wights, he was an easy target.

Thanks for putting this out SSR, a good read.      :cheers:

 

Edited by LongRider
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7 hours ago, Mithras said:

Somewhere beyond the Wall, waiting for new instructions. If you are interested, I have a theory where he will play an important role in TWoW.

 

Did not realize you posted anything in the last long while.  I will read with interest!  

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8 hours ago, Mithras said:

Somewhere beyond the Wall, waiting for new instructions. If you are interested, I have a theory where he will play an important role in TWoW.

 

Too bad that was archived @Mithras, that was a really creative take on a great chunk of the North in Winds.   Thanks so much for dropping your idea for Uncle Benjen's where and whatabouts in.  Enjoyed it immensely!  

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  • 3 weeks later...
28 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

You poor thing.  Dredging up dead topics from boredom.  We need a new book really badly.  

I was gonna make a new thread about my Benjen is in the weirwood paste theory and that's how we're gonna learn about Jon, but I just found this thread instead. But I agree, if Winds isn't out by December I will be shocked and saddened. 400 pages left, 3 pages a day, 133 days. Edit for four months, publish the book. Wishful thinking obviously, but I could see it happening. 

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10 minutes ago, GZ Bloodraven said:

I was gonna make a new thread about my Benjen is in the weirwood paste theory and that's how we're gonna learn about Jon, but I just found this thread instead. But I agree, if Winds isn't out by December I will be shocked and saddened. 400 pages left, 3 pages a day, 133 days. Edit for four months, publish the book. Wishful thinking obviously, but I could see it happening. 

Post your topic.  Have some fun.

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