Tywin et al. Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 18 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: I will be dead by then. Everything seems to be moving at an accelerated pace. Don't be shocked when fifty year forecasts are realized in less than twenty, perhaps even much faster than that. It would not shock me if that by 2030 most of our worst fears for 2050 are already a reality and I don't see any evidence across a number of areas that suggests were going to be turning this around anytime soon. Secretary of Eumenes and Fragile Bird 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spockydog Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 40 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: I will be dead by then. In fifteen to twenty years time, you'll probably be wishing you were. Secretary of Eumenes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Banking crises are always terrifying because they're driven by psychology and this type of thing can turn on a dime. While the size and type of this crisis will be different to the GFC I suspect it might have even more pervasive effects if it is concentrated on retail banks etc. Madame deVenoge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 10 hours ago, Paxter said: Inadequate controls; high management turnover; financial reporting irregularities (Credit Suisse) Every part of the industry fights against this though, where deregulation is always the aim and some governments being complicit in ensuring that the industry doesn't have those controls. Secretary of Eumenes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tywin et al. Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 29 minutes ago, Jeor said: Banking crises are always terrifying because they're driven by psychology and this type of thing can turn on a dime. While the size and type of this crisis will be different to the GFC I suspect it might have even more pervasive effects if it is concentrated on retail banks etc. Why do we call these events "Great" when "Horrific" would be more accurate? When California slips into the sea will we tell our kids to remember the Great Earthquake? I mean sure, if you own property east of the fault line, but... We're funny creatures. Secretary of Eumenes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said: I will be dead by then. Alas, your offspring will probably be alive, barring misfortune. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 hours ago, Jeor said: Banking crises are always terrifying because they're driven by psychology and this type of thing can turn on a dime. While the size and type of this crisis will be different to the GFC I suspect it might have even more pervasive effects if it is concentrated on retail banks etc. Never ever by corruption, lack of regulation of greed, bad practice, bad decisions, cronyism, deliberate manipulation, law breaking and stupidity. Never ever have these created the conditions for financial runs and panics. Never, never, never. Secretary of Eumenes and Rippounet 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 hours ago, Zorral said: Never ever by corruption, lack of regulation of greed, bad practice, bad decisions, cronyism, deliberate manipulation, law breaking and stupidity. Never ever have these created the conditions for financial runs and panics. Never, never, never. Of course those things create the conditions. I'm saying that once the actual crisis starts, it's driven by psychology and market confidence. Even Credit Suisse, which has been a basketcase for years of bad management etc, only exploded in the end because one Saudi investor said they wouldn't put more money into it after everyone was already on tenterhooks after SVB. 6 hours ago, Tywin et al. said: Why do we call these events "Great" when "Horrific" would be more accurate? When California slips into the sea will we tell our kids to remember the Great Earthquake? I mean sure, if you own property east of the fault line, but... We're funny creatures. Originally "Great" was a word that just referred to size and didn't have a value judgement on it e.g. great hall, The Great War etc. Obviously the word is much more associated nowadays with connotations of wonderful etc so yes I guess it doesn't sound quite right. ants 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted March 21 Author Share Posted March 21 (edited) I always thought GFC was Global Financial Crisis? At least at work that’s what I am referring to. Great Recession is sometimes used to refer to what came after; a term that was used as a callback to the Depression. It’s nowhere near as widely used as GFC. Edited March 21 by Paxter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spockydog Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 8 hours ago, ThinkerX said: Alas, your offspring will probably be alive, barring misfortune. This is what infuriates me about the continued propping up of Big Oil by our spineless political leadership. Do these cunts not care about their children and grandchildren? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame deVenoge Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, Paxter said: I always thought GFC was Global Financial Crisis? At least at work that’s what I am referring to. Great Recession is sometimes used to refer to what came after; a term that was used as a callback to the Depression. It’s nowhere near as widely used as GFC. It’s “Great Financial Crisis”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spockydog Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Coming soon: The Great Bailout. Secretary of Eumenes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted March 21 Author Share Posted March 21 10 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: It’s “Great Financial Crisis”. Wikipedia disagrees!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 42 minutes ago, Paxter said: Wikipedia disagrees!! Hey, it’s “Great” in the US because it only happened in the US, it either didn’t affect anyone else or was too insignificant elsewhere! Everywhere else the crisis was Global! [joking, joking, notjoking, notjoking!] Madame deVenoge, Prince of the North, Secretary of Eumenes and 1 other 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Secretary of Eumenes Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 hours ago, Spockydog said: This is what infuriates me about the continued propping up of Big Oil by our spineless political leadership. Do these cunts not care about their children and grandchildren? No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalnestk Oblast Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 4 hours ago, Spockydog said: This is what infuriates me about the continued propping up of Big Oil by our spineless political leadership. Do these cunts not care about their children and grandchildren? Sure they do. And they also believe, fully, that whatever happens their children and grandchildren will have the best of the best. Whatever other people will have to suffer they almost certainly will not. I mean, these are the same rich people who famously have built doomsday shelters in places and flew out various sci-fi authors to figure out the problem of ensuring loyalty in their guards via various horrific ways - implanted bombs, brainwashing, lobotomies, etc. That's where their head is at. They're well beyond the 'oh no, what will happen to our kids' and are actively planning how to get theirs when everyone else is fucked. Fragile Bird, Spockydog, Larry of the Lake and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 So that bit about all the other uninsured deposits being protected at the future/current failing banks seems a reach beyond what the Fed had in mind when they bailed out the initial failed banks SVB & FR. Markets skittish after Yellen rules out ‘blanket’ protection for bank deposits https://nypost.com/2023/03/23/stocks-tanked-after-yellen-ruled-out-blanket-insurance-for-bank-deposits?utm_source=drive&utm_campaign=android_nyp That was my initial impression that they had stopped short of a blanket protection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 As Yellen said, an explicit backstop of the uninsured would require Congress to take action through legislative change. What we have now is an implicit backstop, in which the next bank to fail will (almost without question) be backstopped by FDIC using its systemic risk override. Madame deVenoge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted March 24 Author Share Posted March 24 (edited) Trying to figure out what the playbook would be from now for First Republic and its regulators. At the moment, the bank is avoiding default thanks to a $30bn deposit from its larger competitors and access to central bank liquidity facilities (SVB never enjoyed these luxuries). The size of the bank's deposit outflows since the start of the crisis is not known precisely but is probably in excess of 40%. In theory, the bank could survive from here if deposit outflows stabilize further. The problem is that the bank's net interest margin going forward is completely shot, which turns the bank into a zombie. It will have to pay a market rate on the new funding that has come in (compared to the cheap funding that ran) while the asset side of the business is made up of underwater bonds and mortgages. Earnings in the future are likely to be terrible, meaning that this bank lacks a profitable future, unless it can somehow re-attract the cheap funding that just walked out the door. Unless a white knight sees some sort of franchise value in the bank and is willing to recapitalize the bank and absorb losses, I don't really see a happy ending here. Things could drag out for quite a long time thanks to the liquidity on offer, but eventually the bank will book losses and breach its capital requirements. I guess the only other saviour could be a return of cheap funding / massive cut in interest rates. Edited March 24 by Paxter ants, DireWolfSpirit and Secretary of Eumenes 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ants Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 On 3/22/2023 at 1:20 AM, Chataya de Fleury said: It’s “Great Financial Crisis”. Not outside the USA its not. It's the Global Financial Crisis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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