How will Dany sail west ?

[Tyrosh Lannister]

Assuming she returns to Mereen from Vaes Dothrak with her Dothraki army and wants to head over to Westeros she needs ships. 

The ironborn are hostile so she can't use their ships. They would be burned. 

Same with the Volantene fleet.

How will she carry her army over to Westeros ?

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

2 hours ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

Assuming she returns to Mereen from Vaes Dothrak with her Dothraki army and wants to head over to Westeros she needs ships. 

The ironborn are hostile so she can't use their ships. They would be burned. 

Same with the Volantene fleet.

How will she carry her army over to Westeros ?

By abandoning the cities she conquered

[James Arryn]

What do you mean, fleets would be burned for being hostile? Are you talking wildfyre? Because there is no need for the fleet to disembark on the Blackwater. In fact, given the size and complexity of her army that would be idiotic. Disembarkation spots are plentiful but depend on factors like how secure the seas are, the need for relays and how many, and the proximity to defensible terrain nearby. The huge advantage for any of this is air support, for scouting, harrying opposing scouting, etc. 

I think symbolically Dragonstone/Driftmark make the most sense, but probably only for a detachment; unlikely to have enough fresh water sources for a massive army. But she has a lot of options to choose from. Dorne if they’re on board, otherwise not worth having to fight their way through the deserts and passes. Stormlands coast is doable but fleets tend to get disorganized by the weather. I think my best bets would be a landing somewhere in the Bay of Crabs once DS/etc. has been secured, only issue is the land might be too wasted by the Wot5K, depends. Or alternatively either by Oldtown or the Mander’s mouth and come up the watercourse, that’s a longer march but mostly open cavalry friendly terrain and lots of forage.

As to the actual shipping logistics, GRRM usually either makes a big deal out of them or ~ ignores them, which makes perfect sense as they make for boring reading to most. I think he’d make the iron fleet workable if that’s what he wants; victarion has captured enough cogs and the like. Horses will require imagination and some will die to retain grimness, but an author is rarely constrained by logistics for too long in books with magic and dragons. 

[Lady Stonehearts Simp]

Just now, James Arryn said:

What do you mean, fleets would be burned for being hostile? Are you talking wildfyre? Because there is no need for the fleet to disembark on the Blackwater. In fact, given the size and complexity of her army that would be idiotic. Disembarkation spots are plentiful but depend on factors like how secure the seas are, the need for relays and how many, and the proximity to defensible terrain nearby. The huge advantage for any of this is air support, for scouting, harrying opposing scouting, etc. 

I think symbolically Dragonstone/Driftmark make the most sense, but probably only for a detachment; unlikely to have enough fresh water sources for a massive army. But she has a lot of options to choose from. Dorne if they’re on board, otherwise not worth having to fight their way through the deserts and passes. Stormlands coast is doable but fleets tend to get disorganized by the weather. I think my best bets would be a landing somewhere in the Bay of Crabs once DS/etc. has been secured, only issue is the land might be too wasted by the Wot5K, depends. Or alternatively either by Oldtown or the Mander’s mouth and come up the watercourse, that’s a longer march but mostly open cavalry friendly terrain and lots of forage.

As to the actual shipping logistics, GRRM usually either makes a big deal out of them or ~ ignores them, which makes perfect sense as they make for boring reading to most. I think he’d make the iron fleet workable if that’s what he wants; victarion has captured enough cogs and the like. Horses will require imagination and some will die to retain grimness, but an author is rarely constrained by logistics for too long in books with magic and dragons. 

She is gonna land on Dragonstone for sure. At that point the Tyrells will probably reach out. Though it depends on her situation with Euron. They may resent allying with the Ironborn after what Euron does.

[SeanF]

4 hours ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

Assuming she returns to Mereen from Vaes Dothrak with her Dothraki army and wants to head over to Westeros she needs ships. 

The ironborn are hostile so she can't use their ships. They would be burned. 

Same with the Volantene fleet.

How will she carry her army over to Westeros ?

I expect the direction of travel will be Meereen - Volantis, then Volantis - Pentos, then Pentos - Dragonstone/Crownlands. 

The ships will come from shipyards in Slavers Bay, the Iron Fleet, and vast numbers of captured slaver vessels.

[James Arryn]

3 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I expect the direction of travel will be Meereen - Volantis, then Volantis - Pentos, then Pentos - Dragonstone/Crownlands. 

The ships will come from shipyards in Slavers Bay, the Iron Fleet, and vast numbers of captured slaver vessels.

Bypassing Tyrosh, Lys and Myr? (Not disagreeing, I haven’t given much thought to her Essosi progress, just curious).

[EggBlue]

4 hours ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

How will she carry her army over to Westeros ?

with ships of course.

[astarkchoice]

Volantis has a slave fleet and half are fire worshippers whonsee dany as the messiah.

Vic has bwen told to bring dany home and isnt that bright

Quarth has declared war and will be on the losing side  they may offer ships just to be left alone

Shes spoilt for choice

[Nevets]

I would expect the Dothraki to travel west across the Dothraki Sea to the area around Pentos.  The Dothraki don't like the ocean, and have lots of horses which would be difficult to send by ship.  So they will probably travel overland.

The unsullied and other personnel from Meereen could travel using the Iron Fleet.  Presumably they could meet up around Pentos and the Fleet could ferry the Dothraki across the Narrow Sea.  Landing spot to be determined.

[Alester Florent]

8 hours ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

The ironborn are hostile so she can't use their ships.

So hostile that Euron has sent a fleet to Essos to fetch her.

[Tyrosh Lannister]

8 hours ago, SeanF said:

I expect the direction of travel will be Meereen - Volantis, then Volantis - Pentos, then Pentos - Dragonstone/Crownlands. 

The ships will come from shipyards in Slavers Bay, the Iron Fleet, and vast numbers of captured slaver vessels.

The ironborn hold those ships. They will be on those ships and are danys enemies. She is likely to burn them and these ships will burn - so no fleet to carry her to Westeros 

[Tyrosh Lannister]

4 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

So hostile that Euron has sent a fleet to Essos to fetch her.

Fetch her is to kidnap her. Dany won't give in. She doesn't want to be kidnapped. 

[Alester Florent]

2 minutes ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

Fetch her is to kidnap her. Dany won't give in. She doesn't want to be kidnapped. 

I think this is a major assumption. Euron clearly has his own evil plan for Daenerys as does Victarion. But they're not planning to pitch up, throw a bag over her head and drag her back to Westeros: they'll want her dragons too, and that means persuading her to bring them with her.

The Greyjoy approach is likely to be an offer of alliance including the means to return to Westeros, not an attack. If Dany truly intends to return to Westeros, the Iron Fleet is the most obvious means for her to do so at present.

[Curled Finger]

Yah, but Victarion doesn't think he's doing Euron's bidding.  He's going to marry Dany! DunDunDunDun! Yep, diabolical genius that Victarion.  Not only that, you've got a bit of "who's in charge" going on among the sell sword armies and Selmy not feeling all warm and fuzzy about what's coming.  And one freaky Red Priest of indeterminate strange power.  Possibly an Archmaester and a pickled Maester as well.  Slavers Bay is a veritable fireworks factory waiting for a matchless eyed dwarf with a silver tongue to come in and organize stuff.  What else would Mr. Diplomacy be there for if not pump Selmy up (if he survives), rally the R'hllor faction, unite the armies, sign Marwyn up, erect a cool state pyre for Aemon and get Victarion totally on board and get Daario back?   

[Lord Varys]

Only an insane moron would sail from Meereen to Westeros. Sure enough, any people from Slaver's Bay wanting to join Daenerys will jump ship there but the Dothraki won't. They will ride to the shores of the Narrow Sea and take ship there so their time aboard ships will be minimal.

Not to mention that it would be madness to actually work with a gigantic armada when you can move the bulk of your forces overland for thousands of leagues. Journey by ship is very dangerous ... and quite fatal when ships sink.

9 hours ago, King Maegor the Cool said:

She is gonna land on Dragonstone for sure. At that point the Tyrells will probably reach out. Though it depends on her situation with Euron. They may resent allying with the Ironborn after what Euron does.

Dragonstone is a rock in the sea which holds absolutely no strategic value for somebody who wants the Iron Throne and the control of the continent of Westeros. Sure enough, Dany might fly there on Drogon, take formal possession of the place, visit the crypt containing the ashes of her ancestors, lighting a candle for her mother (who would be buried there) and perhaps her father and Rhaegar and Rhaegar's children as well (if their remains were interred there). And then she will press on.

51 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

I think this is a major assumption. Euron clearly has his own evil plan for Daenerys as does Victarion. But they're not planning to pitch up, throw a bag over her head and drag her back to Westeros: they'll want her dragons too, and that means persuading her to bring them with her.

The Greyjoy approach is likely to be an offer of alliance including the means to return to Westeros, not an attack. If Dany truly intends to return to Westeros, the Iron Fleet is the most obvious means for her to do so at present.

While neither Euron nor Victarion would actually have had abducting Daenerys in mind (they do indeed want the dragons and Euron, especially, wants Dany's claim to the Iron Throne) that is completely academic talk now. Dany is no longer in Slaver's Bay and whatever Victarion or Euron's agents in Vic's fleet want will have to be dealt with by Dany's other people long before her return. If things don't work out between the Ironborn and the others - especially if Vic were to claim a dragon of his own - then they might leave Slaver's Bay and return to Westeros without Daenerys or any of her people because they might decide that they no longer need a girl that might already be a rotting corpse.

Also, of course, if Daenerys ever bothers returning to Slaver's Bay it will be as a dragonlord and the god-empress of all the Dothraki. So the chances of anyone striking a deal with her will be not exactly great. They will have to do whatever the hell she commands. Or they will die.

But to be sure - they no longer need the Ironborn ships even for the people in Slaver's Bay who might want to travel west. They will have the entire Volantene fleet sailing to Meereen right now. And, of course, all the slaver ships in the area which they will soon take possession of.

And with the help of the Dothraki Daenerys will soon also control all the ships of the Free Cities on the mainland of Essos - Volantis, Myr, Pentos. In light of the fact how easily the Volantenes got rid of the entire Golden Company (10,000 men plus horses) - they didn't even have to use their military fleet for that - the Volantene ships alone might be enough to ferry tens of thousands of Dany's troops to Westeros. But in combination with all the others she might secure she could essentially move all the Dothraki to Westeros.

Not sure if she would really want to do that ... but if Dany becomes their Stallion Who Mounts the World and if Daenerys makes it clear she will go to this Westeros then effectively all the Dothraki might insist to accompany her. She will be their savior, after all, so they are not likely to abandon her.

[Tyrosh Lannister]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Only an insane moron would sail from Meereen to Westeros. Sure enough, any people from Slaver's Bay wanting to join Daenerys will jump ship there but the Dothraki won't. They will ride

Lol I forgot the Dothraki fear the sea. But What about victarions fleet ? Will he help destroy the volantene fleet ? Then what ? As you said he has to deal with Danys diplomats as she is not in mereen. If they do become allies will he be okay sailing his fleet all the way to Pentos to pick her army ? I don't think the Dothraki and ironborn will get along . 

Or if victarions fleet sails away after stealing a dragon Danys team have no fleet to sail to westeros. The volantene fleet will be destroyed. That only leaves capturing the free cities like Pentos , myr and controlling the ships there. The captains of those ships will not be okay with being ordered to ferry tens of thousands of dothraki

[Curled Finger]

8 hours ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

But What about victarions fleet ? Will he help destroy the volantene fleet ? Then what ? As you said he has to deal with Danys diplomats as she is not in mereen. If they do become allies will he be okay sailing his fleet all the way to Pentos to pick her army ? I don't think the Dothraki and ironborn will get along . 

Or if victarions fleet sails away after stealing a dragon Danys team have no fleet to sail to westeros. The volantene fleet will be destroyed. That only leaves capturing the free cities like Pentos , myr and controlling the ships there. The captains of those ships will not be okay with being ordered to ferry tens of thousands of dothraki

OR Victarion could die and Dany's diplomats could simply take the fleet.  One thing I neglected to mention in my little list of miracles I expect Tyrion to perform is fix Viserion.  This horn Vic has may or may not play into it and gaining a rider may or may not play into it.  But I do expect that Tyrion will form some sort of "bond" with this dragon which gives Dany's diplomats armies and at least one dragon to reign bloody hell on any captain who tries to give them any trouble.   Don't forget there is disease of plague scale going around outside the gates.  It wouldn't be hard for all of them to die.  We don't have the first clue what Moqorro has done to Victarion.  

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

Lol I forgot the Dothraki fear the sea. But What about victarions fleet ? Will he help destroy the volantene fleet ? Then what ? As you said he has to deal with Danys diplomats as she is not in mereen. If they do become allies will he be okay sailing his fleet all the way to Pentos to pick her army ? I don't think the Dothraki and ironborn will get along . 

Or if victarions fleet sails away after stealing a dragon Danys team have no fleet to sail to westeros. The volantene fleet will be destroyed. That only leaves capturing the free cities like Pentos , myr and controlling the ships there. The captains of those ships will not be okay with being ordered to ferry tens of thousands of dothraki

No, the Volantene fleet is likely not going to be destroyed. The Volantene standing army and navy are slave soldiers, remember? The slave soldiers with the tiger stripes on their faces. They are mostly followers of R'hllor, so they will declare for Daenerys whenever Moqorro signals them to do so.

There might be a brief battle there until the non-slave soldiers and officers in the Volatene armada (including the triarch(s) with them) are dealt with, but then the entire Volantene contingent in Slaver's Bay should be acting in the name of Daenerys - which means they will have more than enough ships to move people about.

To properly end slavery and the slave trade they will likely then move the destroy Yunkai and the Wise Masters, followed by New Ghis (which they will need the ships to get to) and the other cities who entered the anti-Daenerys alliance (Tolos, I think, Elyria, and some others). And Qarth will have to pay as well - although Dany might see to that herself.

What exactly Dany's people at Meereen - the freedmen/reformed Meereenese, Unsullied, sellswords, Ironborn, and former Volantene slaves - will do while she is away and perhaps even presumed dead is completely up in the air. It depends on what the various people want, what their leaders intend to do, how the dragons figure into all that, etc. The Volantenes might insist they return to Volantis as quickly as they can to free the slaves there. Thus we could see the big Dany bloc splitting up into smaller forces who act at the same time. A POV might go to Volantis, another might remain in Slaver's Bay, yet another might search for Dany in the Dothraki Sea.

The notion that little to nothing will happen in Slaver's Bay after the battles and Dany is just going to rush back there for plot convenience as soon as she is able is pretty much nonsense. Her big decision in her last chapter was to not go back to Meereen. Instead she allowed herself to be captured by Khal Jhaqo who will now take her to Vaes Dothrak. And how long that's going to take we have no idea.

If Dany's people reconnect with her eventually it might be by ways of a new dragonrider - Tyrion, Brown Ben, or Victarion - learning about Jhaqo's khalasar from some Meereenese or Yunkai'i schemer, correctly concluding they might have captured Dany in the wild - flying to Vaes Dothrak on dragonback to meet and talk to Daenerys there.

The whole dragonrider thing will grant great mobility to three+ characters, and one hopes George will make use of that advantage to advance the plot.

[sweetsunray]

On 3/18/2023 at 6:34 PM, James Arryn said:

Bypassing Tyrosh, Lys and Myr? (Not disagreeing, I haven’t given much thought to her Essosi progress, just curious).

Tyrosh, Lys and Myr offer her peace agreement where they promise to free their slaves and not buy them anymore, and offer their pirate fleets as means of transport. Once Volantis is taken down, and Dany has all the Dothraki, the Three Sisters have no market to buy slaves anymore nor training cities. On top of that, most and largest sellsword companies are either already at Westeros, being hired by Stannis or joined Dany. Tyrosh, Lys and Myr relied on sellsword companies for their wars and defense. They do have the pirates to pick up people to enslave, but no market to sell them anymore, and no training cities either. So, imo the Three Sisters will realize that opposing Dany or warring her openly is a losing move. They're smarter than that, and agree to non-slavery (in the same way that Pentos did) and provide assistance to get her asap to Westeros so she can leave them the hell alone.

[Corvo the Crow]

D'uh on Swan ships of course, how else do you sail west? OH wait, she isn't going to undying lands, but wait, swan ships exist in ASoIaF as well, so, swan ships it is but I really hope her sail west is only as far as Volantis. She may go some on land as far as Pentos etc. as well but please no "Hurr durr Iron throne mine Imma blud of da Dragon usurper dog dayz"