How do you solve a riddle like Septa Lemore?

[Moiraine Sedai]

“How do you solve the problem of Ashara.”

Do that, and you have the key to Lemore. She’s had a baby. Her age puts her of the same age. 

[sweetsunray]

42 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I believe Varys when he said he had no ill will towards Kevan and it was not done of malice. Kevan was attempting to steady the ship in King's Landing so he simply had to go. Varys wants division and mistrust to eat the ground beneath Tommen's rule while Aegon raises his banner. It seems like a logical strategy for Varys, so it makes perfect sense as a motive for Varys.

In my opinion, Varys and Illyrio are simply confidence tricksters, but that's another topic.

I believe so too. I think he wanted to skewer Tywin in this way instead. Kevan was the necessary stand in.

[Crona]

On 3/19/2023 at 5:35 AM, Sandy Clegg said:

Connotations are not necessarily relevant in wordplay. A crystal = a mineral = a stone. If it's a good enough synonym to be used in a crossword, then it should be good enough for George. Also, I don't think we should expect him to be anything other than subtle in his games. He's on the record as saying as much himself.  So unless you want a character to hang a literal stone or pebble between their breasts, then this is the most plausible in-world representation of having a character with a 'stone' near their 'heart'.

I suspect the deeper issue here is a refusal to see that a game is in fact being played between author and reader.

100% agree this story is a game between the author and reader. Btw very good eye! It didn’t occur to me that Lady Stoneheart mirrors Lemore, but it goes well with what I think happened (Lemore’s child was killed instead of Elia’s, just my personal theory). I think this quote really goes the Stoneheart mirroring: 

Lemore had changed out of her septa's robes into garb more befitting the wife or daughter of a prosperous merchant. Tyrion watched her closely. He had sniffed out the truth beneath the dyed blue hair of Griff and Young Griff easily enough, and Yandry and Ysilla seemed to be no more than they claimed to be, whilst Duck was somewhat less. Lemore, though … Who is she, really? Why is she here? Not for gold, I'd judge. What is this prince to her? Was she ever a true septa?

Kind of unrelated but I was also thinking of a connection between Gilly and Septa Lemore. With the crew of the Shy Maid mirroring the crew of the Cinnamon Wind (Griff being Sam, Tyrion as Daeron, Haldon as Maester Aemon, Aemon (baby) is Aegon, Ysilla, yandry, and Duck being the captain, captain’s mate and daughter).

 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Crona

[Sandy Clegg]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

@Sandy Clegg

Nice.  Certainly interesting parallels.  I'd add one more.  Septa Lemore's goal is to crown Young Griff.  When we last see Lady Stoneheart she is caressing Robb's crown.  Now she obviously can't put Robb on the throne in the North, but I do wonder if she ends up trying to crown her oldest daughter.

Or perhaps her youngest son if they're ever reunited.  That might be a closer parallel to "Aegon" two characters allegedly back after Westeros believed they died.

That's a good point, FFR. I think I like Rickon for this - he is one of the dark horses of the series, and although he's very, very young this doesn't mean he can't exhibit agency through warg powers, for example. This is what I like about these symbolic proxies. All sorts of hitherto unexamined links and foreshadowings can come into play once we see Lemore as a LH stand-in.

I'm struggling to get anywhere with the ones hidden in Quentyn's chapters, though. I can spot them, but I'm damned if I can work them out. As the books progress, George seems to bury the links a little deeper than before. Just like any game, there's a ramp up in the difficulty. Might need to crowd-source some help!  

[Sandy Clegg]

59 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

“How do you solve the problem of Ashara.”

Do that, and you have the key to Lemore. She’s had a baby. Her age puts her of the same age. 

OK, here's an attempt to appease all the folks on this thread. There is some nice thematic weaving here if Lemore is at the same time:

a) a symbolic Catelyn (post-death)

and

b) the actual Ashara Dayne, living a new life in Essos

Ashara was essentially Catelyn's only rival for Ned's affections, or so she believed. The 'other woman' in his life. Having Lemore represent them both is a sweet moment  of poetry.

[GZ Bloodraven]

I would say that she's more a symbolic Elia, what being the motherly figure in Elia's sons life. Though it makes sense to symbolize Aegon's maternal-figure as analogue to the Stark's maternal figure. But the Dornish and the Rhoynar are more associated with water in my mind, and the stone heart Stoneheart thing seems like a stretch. 

8 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Do that, and you have the key to Lemore. She’s had a baby. Her age puts her of the same age. 

If Lemore is Ashara, the Elia parallels obviously make much more sense, and the random comments from Barristan about Ashara being hotter than Elia might also make sense. But maternal-figure Lemore and maternal-figure Catelyn are still in symbolic conversation.

[Sandy Clegg]

The idea of Lemore as Stoneheart came up in the recent 'Sphinx" thread (which started to go down too many rabbit holes to mention). But you can find the reference to it near the bottom of the first page, I think, for those interested.

 

Edited August 21, 2023 by Sandy Clegg

[sweetsunray]

I've reread the whole thread again, and I also wanted to add another mirror parallel to Starks: Griff (JonCon) raising Aegon as his own son. JonCon mirrors Ned's role to Jon in that regard, and he not so incidentally wears a "red wolf" cloak. Meanwhile Aegon is supposedly a son of Rhaegar, as most expect Jon to be. This adds to the idea that Lemore should have some parallel role as well. Except, Cat's attitude towards Jon was never like Lemore's to Aegon. Does she have parallels with Lyanna? Lemore is an absent mother (to the child she birthed)? She was "promised" (to her faith) and wasn't supposed to get preggers in the eyes of her family?

Edited August 19, 2023 by sweetsunray

[Gilbert Green]

Mellario.  Mellario.  Mellario.  Mellario.  Mellario.

I can't quite understand why everyone ignores the evidence.

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

Mellario.  Mellario.  Mellario.  Mellario.  Mellario.

I can't quite understand why everyone ignores the evidence.

Because the supposed evidence is extremely thin, and it doesn't make a great deal of sense?

Firstly, Mellario posing as a septa makes no sense. She's from Norvos, she's almost certainly not a follower of the Seven, and it's unlikely that she had enough of an interest in the Faith to pick up the knowledge necessary to masquerade convincingly as an actual septa.

Secondly, this is presumably on the basis of Doran's plan and secret Targ loyalties. But Doran's plan was all in on Dany and Viserys. He's made no allowances for Aegon, he doesn't mention him to Arianne as a potential claimant (when there is no reason for him not to do so if he knows about him) and treats Aegon as dead.

I'm guessing that the actual reasoning here relies on the elaborate baby-musical-chairs theory that holds that pretty much none of the major characters in the book are who they (or we) think they are, because they were all identity-swapped for reasons that defy logical explanation, and that "Aegon" is actually Quentyn (while Quentyn is Aegon, apart from the dead Quentyn, who is the Tattered Prince). And that (notwithstanding the point above about Mellario's posing as a septa making no sense anyway) is the reason Mellario would be on the boat with Aegon.

In which case, the reason everyone is ignoring the "evidence" is because the actual evidence for the proposal is largely nonexistent, and because in order to make any kind of sense it requires buying into a sprawling theory that most readers consider to be completely insane.

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

Firstly, Mellario posing as a septa makes no sense. She's from Norvos, she's almost certainly not a follower of the Seven, and it's unlikely that she had enough of an interest in the Faith to pick up the knowledge necessary to masquerade convincingly as an actual septa.

Lemore is also from Norvos.  She and her company met Tyrion halfway along the Norvos-to-Pentos Road.  And it seems at least some of them did not come by boat.  They had pack horses.

These woulda-shoulda-coulda speculations about what roles Mellario would or would not be skillful enough to impersonate are beside the point. 

If she is a Blackfyre, as she is hinted to be through her connections to Young Griff and the Golden Company; and the World Book clue about Norvosi noblewomen shaving heads and wearing wigs (perfect to hide Targ traits), then there is no reason she could not have a working knowledge of the Faith.  Blackfyre tradition, to the extent they have one, is the Faith of the Seven.  They know at least that lip service is necessary for any plans aimed at the Throne.

Assuming Mellario would necessarily follow the same faith as her guard/slave is just lazy.  YG also spends alot of time in Northern Essos, apparently in Norvos.  It does not stop him from following the Faith of the Seven.  Why would it stop Mellario/Lemore.

GRRM planted Doran's wife in Northern Essos for some mysterious reason, and that's just where we meet Lemore.  Call it a coincidence if you like, but it seems more than a coincidence to me.

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

Secondly, this is presumably on the basis of Doran's plan and secret Targ loyalties. But Doran's plan was all in on Dany and Viserys. He's made no allowances for Aegon, he doesn't mention him to Arianne as a potential claimant (when there is no reason for him not to do so if he knows about him) and treats Aegon as dead.

You could make this exact same argument about Illyrio.  So this argument kills itself right away.

The contradiction you complain about exists with Illyrio, regardless of whether Doran and Illyrio are in league.

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

I'm guessing that the actual reasoning here relies on the elaborate baby-musical-chairs theory that holds that pretty much none of the major characters in the book are who they (or we) think they are, because they were all identity-swapped for reasons that defy logical explanation, and that "Aegon" is actually Quentyn (while Quentyn is Aegon, apart from the dead Quentyn, who is the Tattered Prince). And that (notwithstanding the point above about Mellario's posing as a septa making no sense anyway) is the reason Mellario would be on the boat with Aegon.

In which case, the reason everyone is ignoring the "evidence" is because the actual evidence for the proposal is largely nonexistent, and because in order to make any kind of sense it requires buying into a sprawling theory that most readers consider to be completely insane.

I see the reason YOU are ignoring the evidence is because you don't like ONE of the theories it might lead to.  Well, maybe you can come up with a better theory then. 

I'm just following the evidence.   GRRM planted a mystery about Lemore's identity, and Mellario is by far the best candidate. 

Ashara is at least 10 miles behind her.  Starting with their last known whereabouts.  We meet Lemore in Northern Essos, coming from the direction of Norvos.  The last we heard of Mellario is that she ran off to Northern Essos, specifically to Norvos.  The last thing we heard of Ashara Dayne is that she threw herself into the sea and died.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Evolett]

Lemore / Lemur / Stoneheart

Lemore is very close to "Lemur," the species of primate native  to Madagascar and believed by the people to harbour souls, specifically ancestral spirits. Ashara seemed to me a possible association because she had "haunting" purple eyes.
Lady Stoneheart is an even better match for the Lemur however, especially since lemurs in malagasy culture can be vengeful, taking revenge if they are mocked or cruelly killed. Though they are thought to bring bad luck, killing them is taboo. 

Martin introduces the Lemur in the World Book, a species of monkey from Sothoryos:

Quote

... bears, and even a species of lemur—a creature known from the Summer Isles and Sothoryos, but otherwise rarely seen farther north. These lemurs are said to have silver-white fur and purple eyes, and are sometimes called Little Valyrians. 

This probably isn't news to avid investigators of the text, but what is novel, is the idea that the Lemur, the Little Valyrian could be associated with Lady Stoneheart or the Tullys in general. Does  the family have hidden Valyrian ancestry?
It would certainly confirm some of my suspicions for which evidence is hard to find. Catelyn did have auburn hair, close enough to red hair - she draws attention to it right before her death and the red haired are "kissed by fire." The Tullys incorporate cremation into their funeral rites, a practice otherwise only seen in Targaryens and beyond the Wall, where it is used to make sure the dead stay dead. 

Perhaps this also tells us something about the purpose of the funeral customs of House Tully - drowning and burning. Funeral rites serve various purposes across different cultures and belief systems with transition to the afterlife relevant here. The purpose is to guide the deceased's transition to the spiritual realm, ensuring a safe and peaceful journey. This clearly does not happen in Lady Stonehearts case. Apart from the cruel massacre of the Red Wedding itself, she's denied a decent burial. She is "drowned" in the river but not burned. On a supernatural level, not burning her meant not releasing her spirit from its earthbound state (or into the Nightlands, as the Dothraki have it), allowing it to linger and be available for resurrection. And she returns like a vengeful lemur would after suffering a cruel killing.

 

Tyrion - Littlefinger 

In the Shy Maid setting, Tyrion mirrors Littlefinger. His delight in watching Lemore and her not so subtle flirtatious behaviour in his company perhaps analagous to the early teen relationship between Littlefinger and Catelyn. Catelyn and Lysa make a bit of a fool of Littlefinger by feeding him mud pies which he eats. Lemore dresses Tyrion up in "motley" when she gives him a child's hand me downs to sew up into new attire.  And like Littlefinger, Tyrion is clever and can be quite devious.
The antagonism between Tyrion and Jon Con also mirrors that between LF and Ned. Coming to think of it, at the Battle of the Bells, Jon Con's refusal to burn the Stoney Sept and all the town's residents is something Ned would not have done either. 

 

Rolly Duckfield and Lorent

Duck is akin to Robert B, Lorent, his former master's son whom he smashed with a hammer, the Rhaegar equivalent. Lorent wasn't a particularly nice guy. What does that tell us about Rhaegar? Being a smith's son, Duck could also mirror Gendry who is currently in Stoneheart's company. 

 

On 3/20/2023 at 2:51 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Septa Lemore's goal is to crown Young Griff.  When we last see Lady Stoneheart she is caressing Robb's crown. 

Could this Stoneheart / Lemore connection also foreshadow Young Griff's fate? Dany's vision of the man with the wolf's head at a feast of the dead In the HotU is usually associated with Robb Stark and the Red Wedding. But perhaps it concerns fAegon too. The wolf-headed man looks at Dany in "mute appeal." Why would Robb do that? It kind of makes more sense for fAegon to appeal to Dany. I'm reminded of something Daario suggested to Dany:

Quote

“The pyramids are strong,” she explained to him. “We could take them only at great cost. The moment we attack one the others will rise against us.” “Then winkle them out of their pyramids on some pretext. A wedding might serve. Why not? Promise your hand to Hizdahr and all the Great Masters will come to see you married. When they gather in the Temple of the Graces, turn us loose upon them.”

Dany was appalled. He is a monster. A gallant monster, but a monster still. “Do you take me for the Butcher King?”

 

Daario suggests a Red Wedding style massacre, which she does not even consider. Readers expect a confrontation between Aegon and Dany. Would she consider such in Westeros if things don't go for her as planned? 

[corbon]

On 8/20/2023 at 7:28 PM, Gilbert Green said:

Lemore is also from Norvos.  She and her company met Tyrion halfway along the Norvos-to-Pentos Road.  And it seems at least some of them did not come by boat.  They had pack horses.

This is a fantasy. There is zero evidence that Lemore is from Norvos.

Meeting someone close to a road between A and B (but also on a river and she is first seen emerging from the cabin of the boat) does not make them 'from A' (or B). And that is the sum total of all data potentially suggesting she is from Norvos. 

Lemore is, if not a septa, well versed in the religion of the seven (a westerosi religion, not a Norvosi one). She not only passes successfully as a septa, she responds naturally as one, and is capable enough to teach the future King the religion of his subjects.

On 8/20/2023 at 7:28 PM, Gilbert Green said:

If she is a Blackfyre, as she is hinted to be through her connections to Young Griff and the Golden Company; and the World Book clue about Norvosi noblewomen shaving heads and wearing wigs (perfect to hide Targ traits),

She doesn't have a shaved head. She swims naked in the river. If she wore a wig it would be obvious to Tyrion.

On 8/20/2023 at 7:28 PM, Gilbert Green said:

then there is no reason she could not have a working knowledge of the Faith.  Blackfyre tradition, to the extent they have one, is the Faith of the Seven.  They know at least that lip service is necessary for any plans aimed at the Throne.

Lemore clearly does, and is required to do, more than pay lip service to the Faith. Her instinctive admonitions to Tyrion show that the Faith of the Seven is not a mere cloak she wears. 

On 8/20/2023 at 7:28 PM, Gilbert Green said:

Assuming Mellario would necessarily follow the same faith as her guard/slave is just lazy. 

Norvos is a theocracy, governed in effect by the bearded priests (they select the council). The religion of her guard is not just one of many religions in Norvos, its THE religion. It is not a lazy assumption that it would be the religion of Mellario, a young noblewoman of sufficient importance to have a personal guard. In the absence of other evidence it is the only reasonable assumption.

On 8/20/2023 at 7:28 PM, Gilbert Green said:

YG also spends alot of time in Northern Essos, apparently in Norvos.  It does not stop him from following the Faith of the Seven.  Why would it stop Mellario/Lemore.

YG is being deliberately raised in the Faith of the Seven as it will be an integral part of his future role as King of Westeros.

Mellario is a born and bred Norvosi, with no connection to Westeros at all until her adult marriage. Plus, she left her marriage, her position and her children, in discontent at Westersoi ways to return to Norvos. It is far more reasonable to assume that she holds to typical Norvosi culture (including religion) than to assume she was a fish out of water in her homeland (but still had a guard of the ruling Faith), or adopted new faith and new ways when she married and held them when later abandoning that marriage.

Your position here is not 'impossible', but it is unreasonable based on the evidence available. 

On 8/20/2023 at 7:28 PM, Gilbert Green said:

GRRM planted Doran's wife in Northern Essos for some mysterious reason, and that's just where we meet Lemore.  Call it a coincidence if you like, but it seems more than a coincidence to me.

First, its an assumption that Doran planted Mellario anywhere. The story we are given does not suggest so, and is internally consistent, and also humanly consistent.
Mellario was an exotic foreigner that caught Doran's eye and heart in his travels (and he hers, eye at least). His power and status was clearly enough to win her initially, but her dislike of the westerosi customs around raising noble children were enough for her to leave and return to Norvos. Its a fairly normal human story from start to end. There is no indication anywhere that Doran sent her away or remains in close contact (or control!) of her. We are in fact told the opposite, though whether that is trustworthy remains to be seen.

On 8/20/2023 at 7:28 PM, Gilbert Green said:

You could make this exact same argument about Illyrio.  So this argument kills itself right away.

The contradiction you complain about exists with Illyrio, regardless of whether Doran and Illyrio are in league.

I must be misunderstanding something in your point, because this appears to be utter nonsense.
Illyrio clearly has multiple plans in play covering both Dany and Aegon. He is directly involved in both schemes, from years back, hosting Aegon in his own home, and also creating the Dothraki plot with Dany/Viserys.
Doran, by contrast, in no way appears to have any plans or schemes connected to Aegon, until Aegon invades westeros and announces himself (or rather JonCon announces him in a letter). Until that late (future, until WoW is released!) event, all Doran's schemes are connected with Dany/Visery, both in the past (the Pact of Braavos) and the future (Quentyn's trip to Dany).  

 

In overall summary, Lemore-Mellario literally has nothing substantial behind it. Everything offered as 'evidence' is at best not-impossible, at worst invented out of nothing or even directly contrary to the evidence we have.

On 8/20/2023 at 7:28 PM, Gilbert Green said:

Ashara is at least 10 miles behind her.  Starting with their last known whereabouts.  We meet Lemore in Northern Essos, coming from the direction of Norvos.  The last we heard of Mellario is that she ran off to Northern Essos, specifically to Norvos.  The last thing we heard of Ashara Dayne is that she threw herself into the sea and died.

Lemore is
i) westerosi/follower of the seven with enough knowledge and understanding of westerosi culture, customs and court to tutor the future king of that land
ii) golden skinned (or at least her skin glows gold in the sun), dark haired, has had a child who is not apparently in the picture, swims regularly,
iii) must hide her identity and has enough authority within the Aegon conspiracy to argue with the arrogant noble commander, Jon Connington - without pushback by him.
iv) about 40ish - Tyrion guesses 'past 40', but still handsome and attractive and a man's guess of a woman's age is not reliable, not least Tyrion who is already shown by GRRM guessing ages wrong twice (Jon and fAegon).

Ashara was
i) a westerois follower of the seven, and a young noblewoman from one of the most respected families, with a position at court  
ii) dornish (darker skinned on average than most westerosi) (though Ashara would be stoney Dornish, so this is an extremely minor point that could be fairly dismissed), had dark brown hair, is reputed to have lost a child, and was born on an island next to the sea and is supposedly to have literally thrown herself from a tower into the sea (ie there is a reasonable swimming connection there)
iii) was a known person supposedly dead, and as Lemore would be an original conspirator from before Jon Connington was added to the conspiracy and with a Rank and connection to Aegon equal or greater than his own
iv) would be in her late 30s

Ashara as Lemore would cover multiple plot points
 - Varys' tale of the saving of Prince Aegon (or fAegon, only Varys would know for sure) needs the baby to somehow get to Essos and survive several years before JonCon is introduced to the conspiracy. Ashara could provide that continuity. Varys smuggles Aegon to a ship, the ship goes to Starfall where Ashara fakes her own death and swims out to the ship and takes her place as the babe's supposed mother/guardian for the next few years. As Ellia's former handmaid, and Arthur Dayne's sister, she is perfectly suited to the role and even has the purple eyes to pass as the babe's mother.
 - Aegon's future acceptance as himself, needs some sort of supporting evidence. JonCon could be dismissable as a self-interested party using a stool pigeon to seize power. Ashara Dayne revealing herself would be considerably more powerful and convincing, and she wouldn't be as likely perceived as doing it for power - she's a Dayne, and was also an intimate of Rhaegar's family through her own courtly position and her brother's close connection with Rhaegar himself. 
 - Of Dany's three betrayals, one is said to be 'for love'. Ashara as Leore offers a possible betrayal 'for love' of Barristan Selmy.

Ashara-Lemore has a ridiculously large amount of evidence, connections and plot points going for it - virtually every tiny data point we have about Lemore can be connected to Ashara as well as meta and plot points.
Its one weakness is the lack of Tyrion telling us about Lemore's magnificent purple eyes. I have some counter points to this, though each reader will have their own acceptance levels, and none of us will know until GRRM reveals.
 - GRRM gives himself an out in that Tyrion never comments on Lemore's eyes at all (unusually) but instead GRRM has him distracted by her body
 - GRRM gives himself a second out in that while Tyrion quickly pegs Lemore as something other than she appears, he equally quickly explicitly decides that she's not interesting enough to think about compared to the other party members. This only changes right at the end before Tyrion leaves the party so other than his lechery, he never pays close attention to Lemore. 
 - purple eyes are not actually very distinctive unless 'brought out' by makeup and accessories. We see this in the real world with the most famous purple eyed person Elizabeth Taylor often appearing grey or blue eyed when not using makeup or accessories that bring out the purple colour, and we see it in ASoIaF with Aegon himself using colour (hair in this case) to make his purple eyes less distinctively purple. So IMO, its not unreasonable for a young beauty making her mark at court to have distinctive purple eyes while the same woman, older and deliberately trying to keep her identity hidden, does not appear to have such distinctive eyes.

 

[Gilbert Green]

On 8/25/2023 at 7:35 PM, corbon said:

This is a fantasy. There is zero evidence that Lemore is from Norvos.

I guess this is going to be one of those conversations where I say things, and you ignore what I say and then loudly claim that I did not say anything.

[Gilbert Green]

On 8/25/2023 at 7:35 PM, corbon said:

I must be misunderstanding something in your point, because this appears to be utter nonsense.

Illyrio clearly has multiple plans in play covering both Dany and Aegon. He is directly involved in both schemes, from years back, hosting Aegon in his own home, and also creating the Dothraki plot with Dany/Viserys.
Doran, by contrast, in no way appears to have any plans or schemes connected to Aegon, until Aegon invades westeros and announces himself (or rather JonCon announces him in a letter). Until that late (future, until WoW is released!) event, all Doran's schemes are connected with Dany/Visery, both in the past (the Pact of Braavos) and the future (Quentyn's trip to Dany). 

I don't get what you are not getting.  We the reader may not fully understand Illyrio's plans, but he has some, and various people are in on them to some extent, such as Varys and Tristan Rivers, and apparently JonCon as well.  If those plans seem contradictory to you, that problem exists regardless of the involvement or non-involvement of Doran.

Why is what is possible for them impossible for Doran?  Because you unilaterally declare that Doran is different?  Because he neglects to tell the disloyal and traitorous Arianne all his schemes?  And all of his schemes - even those we know about - do not involve Viserys/Dany.  He is also plotting revenge.

Would Varys and Illyrio really launch an invasion, without considering the position of Dorne?

Varys' words about Doran mourning Elia and her "babe" (singular) implies Varys knows that Doran knows that Aegon is alive.

[Frey family reunion]

On 8/28/2023 at 5:15 AM, Gilbert Green said:

I don't get what you are not getting.  We the reader may not fully understand Illyrio's plans, but he has some, and various people are in on them to some extent, such as Varys and Tristan Rivers, and apparently JonCon as well.  If those plans seem contradictory to you, that problem exists regardless of the involvement or non-involvement of Doran.

Why is what is possible for them impossible for Doran?  Because you unilaterally declare that Doran is different?  Because he neglects to tell the disloyal and traitorous Arianne all his schemes?  And all of his schemes - even those we know about - do not involve Viserys/Dany.  He is also plotting revenge.

Would Varys and Illyrio really launch an invasion, without considering the position of Dorne?

Varys' words about Doran mourning Elia and her "babe" (singular) implies Varys knows that Doran knows that Aegon is alive.

Your last one is a good point.  And personally, I’m in the camp that believes Doran knows more than he’s letting on.

While I don’t think Septa Lemore’s “actual identity” is part of the OP’s meaning, I would like to address my issue with either Mellario or Ashara being Septa Lemore.  My main issue comes from this bit out of Varys’ own mouth, to someone that he knows is about to take this info to the grave:

Quote

“No.”  The Eunuch’s voice seemed deeper.  “He is here.  Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk.  He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that wa not the end of his education.  He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry.  A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them.

So the fairly clear implication is that Lemore is not someone pretending to be a septa, she truly is a septa.  

Mellario used to be my favored theory as well, but this bit has got me questioning it quite a bit.  The same goes for Ashara as well.  Even though as far as Ashara is concerned, I suppose it’s possible that she could have entered a Septa after her “miscarriage” and after she learned of Arthur’s death, I don’t think we have anything to go on that she would have any strong connection to the Faith.

My dark horse candidate(s) for Septa Lemore is/are Lady Jeyne Swann or Wenda the White Faun.  I think there may be a connection between these two ladies.

The Captain General of the Golden Company at the time they apparently entered into the conspiracy with Illyrio, was Myles Toyne, presumably a relation to Simon Toyne, the leader of the Kingswood Brotherhood.  GRRM starts bringing up the Kingswood Brotherhood around the time that he introduces us to the Young Griff conspiracy.  

We’re also repeatedly told about a female member of the Kingswood Brotherhood, Wenda the White Faun.  She and Big Belly Ben appear to be the two most prominent members of the Brotherhood, whose fate we’ve never been told.

On the fateful day, when Simon Toyne and the Smiling Knight were killed, we are told that Lady Jeyne Swann and her Septa were rescued.

Quote

Rescued Lady Jeyne Swann and her septa from the Kingswood Brotherhood, defeating Simon Toyne and the Smiling Knight, and slaying the former.

The addition of Lady Jeyne’s Septa is an interesting bit of information.  If Wenda the White Faun escaped capture, I wonder if perhaps she did so disguised as Lady Jeyne’s Septa.  

Perhaps, Lady Jeyne was not truly “captured” by the Kingswood, but instead was voluntarily in their company, but had to play the role of captive to avoid being found guilty by way of association.  And one of the things she may have done to to help the Kingswood, was allow Wenda the White Faun to play the role of Septa, to avoid capture.  

Interestingly enough, if true, this would not be the first time a female Swann, was linked to revolutionaries and Septas.

Lady Ravella Smallwood, the Lady that gave support to the Brotherhood without Banners, was born a Swann.  She also has a great-aunt that’s a septa:

Quote

“My great-aunt is a septa at a motherhouse in Oldtown,” Lady Smallwood said as the women laced the gown up Arya’s back.  “I sent my daughter there when the war began.  She’ll have outgrown these things by the time she returns, no doubt.”

So the Swanns definitely seem to have an association with the septas if nothing else.  

I wonder if Lady Jeyne became pregnant out of wedlock by one of the Kingswood Brotherhood, and was brought to her relative’s motherhouse in Oldtown?  Where perhaps she herself entered into the Faith, but never quite lost her revolutionary spirit.

And she’s then recruited by Simon’s relative, Myles to help out in their venture.  But she goes by an assumed name to protect her Swann family.  Or perhaps Varys recruited her, after all, we don’t know what happened to Big Belly Ben do we?  I wonder if perhaps Big Belly Ben might have been one of Varys’ alter egos.

If nothing else, I’m not sure that GRRM could resist in pairing an ugly Duck up with a beautiful, err handsome Swan(n) on his Shy Maid.

Edited August 29, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Mourning Star]

I don't see the evidence for Lemore being Mellario.

My biggest problem with Lemore being Ashara is that Ashara's eyes are her defining characteristic, and if the narrative has just left out haunting purple eyes, in the company of Young Griff (and his important coloring) no less, it would be extremely disappointing. That said I can't rule it out. FWIW I have the same issue with Ashara being Quaith, given that her eyes are described, with no mention of purple or anything like it.

On 8/28/2023 at 5:22 PM, Frey family reunion said:

Your last one is a good point.  And personally, I’m in the camp that believes Doran knows more than he’s letting on.

While Doran may know more than he is letting on, I'm not sure the point above, about Varys mentioning Elia and her babe, singular, is a good one. While it's true that once in game of thrones, they are referred to as Elia and her babes, since then Aegon is referred to as a babe and Rhaenys is not. Also, the conversation has context:

"Is that a crow I hear, calling the raven black? Or would you sooner not hear what I've proposed to Doran Martell?"
Varys giggled. "Perhaps my little birds have told me."
"Have they, indeed?" He wanted to hear this. "Go on."
"The Dornishmen thus far have held aloof from these wars. Doran Martell has called his banners, but no more. His hatred for House Lannister is well known, and it is commonly thought he will join Lord Renly. You wish to dissuade him."
"All this is obvious," said Tyrion.
"The only puzzle is what you might have offered for his allegiance. The prince is a sentimental man, and he still mourns his sister Elia and her sweet babe."
"My father once told me that a lord never lets sentiment get in the way of ambition . . . and it happens we have an empty seat on the small council, now that Lord Janos has taken the black."
"A council seat is not to be despised," Varys admitted, "yet will it be enough to make a proud man forget his sister's murder?"
"Why forget?" Tyrion smiled. "I've promised to deliver his sister's killers, alive or dead, as he prefers. After the war is done, to be sure."
Varys gave him a shrewd look. "My little birds tell me that Princess Elia cried a . . . certain name . . . when they came for her."
"Is a secret still a secret if everyone knows it?" In Casterly Rock, it was common knowledge that Gregor Clegane had killed Elia and her babe. They said he had raped the princess with her son's blood and brains still on his hands.
"This secret is your lord father's sworn man."
"My father would be the first to tell you that fifty thousand Dornishmen are worth one rabid dog."
Varys stroked a powdered cheek. "And if Prince Doran demands the blood of the lord who gave the command as well as the knight who did the deed . . ."
"Robert Baratheon led the rebellion. All commands came from him, in the end."
"Robert was not at King's Landing."
"Neither was Doran Martell."

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion IV

Varys is talking about Gregor Clegane, who killed Elia and her babe, not Amory Lorch, who it's said killed Aegon.

On 8/21/2023 at 4:38 PM, Evolett said:

Lemore is very close to "Lemur," the species of primate native  to Madagascar and believed by the people to harbour souls, specifically ancestral spirits. Ashara seemed to me a possible association because she had "haunting" purple eyes.

It is also very close to Lenore, of Edgar Allen Poe's The Raven fame.

Once upon a midnight dreary, while I pondered, weak and weary,
Over many a quaint and curious volume of forgotten lore—
...

 From my books surcease of sorrow—sorrow for the lost Lenore—
For the rare and radiant maiden whom the angels name Lenore—
            Nameless here for evermore.
...
    It shall clasp a sainted maiden whom the angels name Lenore—
Clasp a rare and radiant maiden whom the angels name Lenore.”
            Quoth the Raven “Nevermore.”

And since the topic has come up comparing Lemore with Cat, I feel obliged to point out this quote, the only time I could find in the series where "Never more" stood alone in quotes.

"Mother, are you certain?" Clearly, Robb was not.
"Never more," Catelyn lied glibly. "Lord Walder is my father's bannerman. I have known him since I was a girl. He would never offer me any harm." Unless he saw some profit in it, she added silently, but some truths did not bear saying, and some lies were necessary.

In addition, the only time "nevermore" appears as a single word is:

I loved Robb, loved all of them . . . I never wanted any harm to come to any of them, but it did. And now there's only me. All he had to do was say the word, and he would be Jon Stark, and nevermore a Snow. All he had to do was pledge this king his fealty, and Winterfell was his. All he had to do . . .
. . . was forswear his vows again.

Not sure what exactly to make of it, or that I love theories based on too much seemingly random thought association, but it is interesting and I do love literary references.

[Alester Florent]

3 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

Varys is talking about Gregor Clegane, who killed Elia and her babe, not Amory Lorch, who it's said killed Aegon.

Gregor killed Elia and Aegon (the "babe"). Amory Lorch killed Princess Rhaenys.

[Mourning Star]

17 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Gregor killed Elia and Aegon (the "babe"). Amory Lorch killed Princess Rhaenys.

My bad, typo, you are correct! That's what I meant. Thank you

[Gilbert Green]

On 8/28/2023 at 5:22 PM, Frey family reunion said:

“No.”  The Eunuch’s voice seemed deeper.  “He is here.  Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk.  He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that wa not the end of his education.  He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry.  A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them.

So the fairly clear implication is that Lemore is not someone pretending to be a septa, she truly is a septa.  

I don't much agree with you here.  I am sympathetic to the idea that Varys would not tell a complete pack of lies to a dying man.  But that does not render him utterly incapable of fudging the truth a bit.  Varys believes that power lies where people believe that it lies.  No doubt he also believes that septa is a septa so long as she can pass as one.  And (perhaps) that an Aegon is an Aegon as long as he can pass as one.

Varys only point is that Aegon has been competently instructed in the Faith (by Varys' own cynical standards of competent instruction, which no doubt views religion entirely as a tool of politics).   I'm sure Varys could not care less whether the septa ever took vows and/or meant vows and/or even believes in the Seven in her heart of hearts.

But who is to say that Mellario has not taken septa's vows?  How many years has it been since she last bore a child to Doran?  Lemore has borne children in the past.  Whoever she was, in her past life, before she became a septa (assuming she is a "real septa", whatever that is), she certainly was somebody.  And if she was not somebody's wife, she was somebody's daughter, somebody's friend, somebody's lover.   Why, then, can she not have been Mellario?

Edited September 2, 2023 by Gilbert Green