House of the Dragon Gets 8 Episodes for Season 2, Season 3 (Almost) Greenlit

[Westeros]

Some significant House of the Dragon news reported by Deadline’s Nellie Andreeva, who has received word (and confirmed some parts of it with HBO) that for “story-driven” reasons the plan of a 10 episode 2nd season has been changed to an 8 episode 2nd season, which has necessitated some re-writing and likely has contributed to the slight delays to the planned commencement of filming (however, production is imminent and the prospective air date remains summer 2024). Per Andreeva’s report:

“It has been reported that House of the Dragon‘s creative team had envisioned the series running for three or four seasons. I hear executive producer-showrunner Ryan Condal, working with author/executive producer George R.R. Martin, took a step back as Season 2 was being put together to take a big-picture view of the series, which follows Martin’s Fire & Blood, and figure out the overall narrative flow, including how to break up the stories season-to-season and what battles to include and when.”

Interestingly, Andreeva notes that even with the reduction of two episodes, Condal and GRRM are still discussing whether three or four seasons work better. Her piece goes into some more detail about just what was moved out of the 2nd season for the prospective 3rd season, which we’ll quote below and speculate on a bit.

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[Annara Snow]

I don't see how they can possibly have just 3 seasons with this episode count, unless it's a 16 episode season 3.

Doing it in just two more seasons would be too rushed even with a 10 episode count. If they wanted 12 episodes, that would've been fine.

Four seasons where seasons 2-4 have 8 episodes each sounds OK. If this episode reduction increases the chances of season 4, I'm all for it.

Also, if they thought they might only have 3 seasons in total, then I'm 100% sure they initially planned the fall of King's Landing to happen at the end of season 2. But now that's obviously happening in season 3.  (ETA: unless thd theory about the Battle of the Gullet being movsd after the fall of KL and to season 3 is correct)

Edited March 29, 2023 by Annara Snow

[The Bard of Banefort]

I could see them ending S2 with Rhaenyra triumphant and then having the Battle of the Gullet happen early in S3. (Conversely, they could combine the Gullet with Rook’s Rest and save Rhaenys’ death until the end of the season, although I’m not sure how that would line up with the plot in the Riverlands). This would probably mean they wouldn’t have to kill Jace off so soon, which was a change I was hoping they’d make when the show was first announced. (Personally, I think they could scrap Addam of Hull entirely and give his death to Jace, especially since we were given a scene of him confronting Rhaenyra about his father. It would create a good conflict between them, with Rhaenyra denouncing “the bastards” and Jace needing to confront Hugh and Ulf at Tumbleton as part of his identity crisis. Corlys could even still be arrested for aiding his escape from KL). This could also explain the—likely unsubstantiated—rumor that Helaena is getting killed off early, since that would spread out the deaths a bit more.

One theory I’m seeing online is that this may have been a compromise between GRRM and Condal. GRRM gets his four seasons, but Condal still gets to tell a tighter story.

[Quaithe from Asshai]

If they're signaling they're going to green light season 3 soon, does that mean they're passing on most of the other shows?

We already know 2 are dead. 

Also, I don't blame HBO. ROI on 10 episodes isn't much more than 8. This is one story, and breaking it further reduces the risk of losing a lot of money while also being able to tell the rest of the story later. Also, HoTD didn't do well this award season (apart from Golden Globes and Critics Choice who doesn't vote for the Emmys). No SAG for Actors or ensemble, no WGA, no DGA, and no PGA. Compare it to White Lotus which cost $3 million per episode. Moreover, HoTD didn't have the same organic growth as GOT had (look at google trends in the months following the end of the first season).

 

[EggBlue]

I would've said eight episodes aren't enough. But they did manage to cramp 20 years of materials and, more importantly, character development into ten episodes, and it was largely ok.  Luke got all the character writing he needed for his death in two episodes; I suspect the same would happen with Jace and the rest. so, if only to keep the pacing the same as season 1 (as in every episode has a shock value moment, huge plot developments and major character deaths), I guess 8 episodes and 3 seasons in total makes sense. 

[Annara Snow]

2 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

If they're signaling they're going to green light season 3 soon, does that mean they're passing on most of the other shows?

We already know 2 are dead. 

Why would those things be connected?

Quote

Moreover, HoTD didn't have the same organic growth as GOT had (look at google trends in the months following the end of the first season).

What does that mean?

[Annara Snow]

44 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

I would've said eight episodes aren't enough. But they did manage to cramp 20 years of materials and, more importantly, character development into ten episodes, and it was largely ok.  Luke got all the character writing he needed for his death in two episodes; I suspect the same would happen with Jace and the rest. so, if only to keep the pacing the same as season 1 (as in every episode has a shock value moment, huge plot developments and major character deaths), I guess 8 episodes and 3 seasons in total makes sense. 

You mean 3 more seasons. 4 seasons in total.

[EggBlue]

4 hours ago, Annara Snow said:

You mean 3 more seasons. 4 seasons in total.

yeah

[The hairy bear]

19 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I could see them ending S2 with Rhaenyra triumphant and then having the Battle of the Gullet happen early in S3.

This seems likely, and I don't think it affects much the story. Rhaenys' death would be the trigger that prompts Rhaenyra to act and take King's Landing. You could even combine the Gullet and Otto's execution at the beginning of S3, which would be a nice juxtaposition.

My fear, though, is that I don't buy for a minute that this decision is "story-driven". Rook's Nest is basically just a dragon fight that's very similar to Aemond and Luke's clash that we had in S1's finale, so the Gullet will be basically the first proper battle of the war. The fact that HBO is not willing to have that in S2 is not a very good indication, I'm afraid.

[The Bard of Banefort]

2 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

This seems likely, and I don't think it affects much the story. Rhaenys' death would be the trigger that prompts Rhaenyra to act and take King's Landing. You could even combine the Gullet and Otto's execution at the beginning of S3, which would be a nice juxtaposition.

My fear, though, is that I don't buy for a minute that this decision is "story-driven". Rook's Nest is basically just a dragon fight that's very similar to Aemond and Luke's clash that we had in S1's finale, so the Gullet will be basically the first proper battle of the war. The fact that HBO is not willing to have that in S2 is not a very good indication, I'm afraid.

I’m less interested in the dragon battles than other people are, so I’m not as bothered by it, but they also may have decreased the episode count in order to increase the budget per episode. Assuming the budget stayed the same regardless of the season length, that means more money for special effects.

HBO isn’t shelling out all the merchandise like I thought they would be. Maybe they need the Starks back after all (or a Lannister who isn’t a doofus).

At first it looked like HBO was going to try to build a GOT cinematic universe, but now they’re pulling back on that. They may also be nervous about adapting something without finished source material again.

Edited March 30, 2023 by The Bard of Banefort

[Quaithe from Asshai]

21 hours ago, Annara Snow said:

What does that mean?

If you look at the google trends for GOT from April 1st 2011 (just before the show started) to Oct 1st 2011 (three and a half months after it ended). If you also look at google trends for HoTD from Aug 1st 2022 to Feb 1st 2023 (similar period as GOT) you will see that the post show period is way worse for HoTD. 

 

Interest for HoTD was predominately when the show was on, while for GOT, people were still interested months after.

[Ran]

7 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

Interest for HoTD was predominately when the show was on, while for GOT, people were still interested months after.

This is because casting for the 2nd season was already started in May, while the first season was still airing, and production began in July, and there were constant reports about new cast members, filming locations, etc.

It's apples and oranges. Once production is under way and casting is revealed and people start posting information from shooting locations, there'll be more engagement.

Certainly, it's true that due to its first seasons stacking together as it did, the "Game of Thrones News" experience was a year-round thing rather than something that took a big pause after a season. What degree that contributed to the feverish climb in popularity, though, I don't know. GoT's first several seasons were all less watched than this first season of HotD, so again, apples and oranges.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Ran

[Annara Snow]

21 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

This seems likely, and I don't think it affects much the story. Rhaenys' death would be the trigger that prompts Rhaenyra to act and take King's Landing. You could even combine the Gullet and Otto's execution at the beginning of S3, which would be a nice juxtaposition.

My fear, though, is that I don't buy for a minute that this decision is "story-driven". Rook's Nest is basically just a dragon fight that's very similar to Aemond and Luke's clash that we had in S1's finale, so the Gullet will be basically the first proper battle of the war. The fact that HBO is not willing to have that in S2 is not a very good indication, I'm afraid.

Not really. The first proper battle was the Burning Mill. The fighting in the Riverlands between Blackwoods and Brackens happened before the Rook's Rest or the Gullet.

You're probably thinking of battles that are likely to be the center piece of an episode, since major characters appear in them, but there really aren't many of those in the Dance, especially if we exclude those that are strictly dragon fights - Rook's Rest and God's Eye. GRRM really didn't want to write big climactic battles that involve armies and dragons and  main characters from both sides.

Even Rhaenyra taking King's Landing is barely a battle, and the aftermath is really more interesting to see. I think that Rhaenyra taking KL will be the finale, but if it is, there's no way that Otto's execution doesn't happen near the end of the same episode.  The battle is pretty much a done deal once you learn it's happening under those circumstances. The interesting part will be seeing Rhaenyra meet Alicent and Otto again, spare Alicent and order Otto's execution. 

[Quaithe from Asshai]

14 hours ago, Ran said:

This is because casting for the 2nd season was already started in May, while the first season was still airing, and production began in July, and there were constant reports about new cast members, filming locations, etc.

It's apples and oranges. Once production is under way and casting is revealed and people start posting information from shooting locations, there'll be more engagement.

Certainly, it's true that due to its first seasons stacking together as it did, the "Game of Thrones News" experience was a year-round thing rather than something that took a big pause after a season. What degree that contributed to the feverish climb in popularity, though, I don't know. GoT's first several seasons were all less watched than this first season of HotD, so again, apples and oranges.

Maybe. But google searches for GOT in the months following season 1 but before season 2 were around 15% from peak during season 1. HoTD is around 1-2%. I find it hard to believe most of the GOT activity is due to news about season 2. Besides, GOT got guild nominations, HoTD didn't. I see HBO's point, the show is mostly for the fans and won't add to their Emmys tally (aside from technical awards, which I think it has a great shot).  From HBO's POV, this is a cash cow, and they need to get as much as they can without pissing off the fans and spending too much. Eight episodes work. They can give the fans impressive battles and sets. It's one long story after all. Chunking it makes total sense. 

[The Bard of Banefort]

52 minutes ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

Maybe. But google searches for GOT in the months following season 1 but before season 2 were around 15% from peak during season 1. HoTD is around 1-2%. I find it hard to believe most of the GOT activity is due to news about season 2. Besides, GOT got guild nominations, HoTD didn't. I see HBO's point, the show is mostly for the fans and won't add to their Emmys tally (aside from technical awards, which I think it has a great shot).  From HBO's POV, this is a cash cow, and they need to get as much as they can without pissing off the fans and spending too much. Eight episodes work. They can give the fans impressive battles and sets. It's one long story after all. Chunking it makes total sense. 

Yeah, I don’t think most show-only fans cared about casting announcements. It was mostly unknown actors playing unknown characters. I think GOT just caught fire in a way few shows do. HOTD is still popular, but I can’t imagine any GOT spin-off being as popular as the original (although Snow will probably bring in big numbers).

It’s also a very different scenario than GOT. Because the story is finished, it’s hard to engage online without having the ending spoiled. There’s no point in theorizing.

The lack of awards is curious considering how all the entertainment journos were convinced it would sweep the awards circuit. It makes me wonder what the politics behind the scenes are. It might just be the byproduct of becoming a franchise.

What’s really interesting is that the Deadline article claims that they still haven’t decided on three or four seasons. I’m not sure how they could do three truncated seasons, but if they do, I’m guessing they’re going to kill Aemond/Daemon in one episode, storm the Dragonpit in the next, kill Rhaenyra in the one after that, then kill Aegon in the next. Which would be. . .fast. But one issue that the show’s going to have is that a lot of the battles are led/fought by characters we haven’t met yet. I’m not sure how they’re going to amend that.

If it’s four seasons, they still might save the Gods Eye for early on in the last season, but in that case, I don’t know what the climax of S3 will be.

[Ran]

8 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

But google searches for GOT in the months following season 1 but before season 2 were around 15% from peak during season 1.

You also need to factor that while they may try to separate "Game of Thrones" book searches from TV searches, it's not perfect. The amount of data back in 2011 is quite noisy, as seen by the spikiness of data from that period. Since there's an actual novel named "A Game of Thrones", you're going to get data that isn't perfectly aligned with TV show searches, whereas there's no book titled "House of the Dragon" to get lumped into searches. "The Last of Us" gets a similar effect due to having a game that it's based on that shares its name.

Another difference between 2011 and now is that internationally, GoT still came out somewhat staggered in the international market. In Sweden, while the small cable channel Canal+ (I think) had the show approximately at the same time as the US, most people in Sweden actually saw it early the next year when our public channel SVT aired it, and I imagine there were similar deals in other countries until HBO started expanding its own international reach.

6 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

It’s also a very different scenario than GOT. Because the story is finished, it’s hard to engage online without having the ending spoiled. There’s no point in theorizing.

Also a good point. 

"The Last of Us" TV series is showing a similar pattern to HotD in Google Trends. And yet both of these shows were massively more watched and had way more interest than GoT did in its 1st season. Just very different comparison points.

[Quaithe from Asshai]

10 hours ago, Ran said:

You also need to factor that while they may try to separate "Game of Thrones" book searches from TV searches, it's not perfect. The amount of data back in 2011 is quite noisy, as seen by the spikiness of data from that period. Since there's an actual novel named "A Game of Thrones", you're going to get data that isn't perfectly aligned with TV show searches, whereas there's no book titled "House of the Dragon" to get lumped into searches. "The Last of Us" gets a similar effect due to having a game that it's based on that shares its name.

Another difference between 2011 and now is that internationally, GoT still came out somewhat staggered in the international market. In Sweden, while the small cable channel Canal+ (I think) had the show approximately at the same time as the US, most people in Sweden actually saw it early the next year when our public channel SVT aired it, and I imagine there were similar deals in other countries until HBO started expanding its own international reach.

Also a good point. 

"The Last of Us" TV series is showing a similar pattern to HotD in Google Trends. And yet both of these shows were massively more watched and had way more interest than GoT did in its 1st season. Just very different comparison points.

The google trends I looked at are only for the US. Interest overseas as international releases were rolling out do affect searches in the states (unless you have evidence for the contrary).

If your argument is that google trends are muddled by book and show searches. Then take a look at trends from the year before GOT aired. And here's AGOT. Here's F&B and here's HoTD. 

 

I think, this supports the notion GOT was growing in popularity (which it did) while HoTD is less likely to grow (maybe even shrink in the future; after all the pilot brought more viewers than the finale). Couple that with the lack of guild nominations, I see why HBO is pivoting toward maximizing profit per season.

[Annara Snow]

You guys are really obsessed with Google trends. I can't say I care.

Anyway, I think the only way you could do the Dance in 3 seasons is if season 2 ends with Rhaenyra taking King's Landing, and then season 3 is a long one, between 13 and 16 episodes, with a mid-season break of 2-3 months. This could be what Condal is arguing for, and I can see why. It's really hard to divide seasons 3 and 4. The Storming of the Dragonpit is the natural climax of the story of Rhaenyra's rule and downfall, but then it's difficult to make a year long break and have a season 4 for the aftermath, which would feel anticlimactic (even though the Dance ending anticlimactically is the point). It might work much better as one long season, where part 1 probably ends with God's Eye, and the Storming of the Dragonpit and everything else happens in part 2, including a long finale thar shows the early years of the regency and shows the fates of the survivors, including the Winter of the Widows, Alicent's death, and at least hints of dragons dying out, putting 

[The Bard of Banefort]

Even if the Reddit rumors were exaggerated (as you would expect them to be), it does look like there was some truth to them: Miguel did leave on bad terms, George is helping Condal with some of the plotting, filming was pushed back a few times. It makes me wonder if some of the rumors about the cast being unhappy with the direction of the show are also true (TL;DR: Creepy sex scene between Alicent and Larys, and increased domestic violence from Daemon). I expect the show to get increasingly weirder, so this wouldn’t really surprise me.

[Annara Snow]

7 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Even if the Reddit rumors were exaggerated (as you would expect them to be), it does look like there was some truth to them: Miguel did leave on bad terms, George is helping Condal with some of the plotting, filming was pushed back a few times. It makes me wonder if some of the rumors about the cast being unhappy with the direction of the show are also true (TL;DR: Creepy sex scene between Alicent and Larys, and increased domestic violence from Daemon). I expect the show to get increasingly weirder, so this wouldn’t really surprise me.

I'm sorry but those fake leaks are absolutely ridiculous and I can't believe anyone is so gullible to believe them.  

First off, GRRM was already helping with the show in season 1 - it was reported he helped with episode 10 in some way.

Secondly, that obsessive Redditor started talking about Miguel leaving on bad terms after it had already been reported that Miguel left on bad terms (because of his wife not becoming an executive producer) - so he came up with that absolute nonsense that "Miguel f**ked up the outline and now they have to rewrite it". As if 1) Miguel, a director, would for some reason be the one to write the outline, rather than Ryan  and the writers, 2) he would so it completely on his own, and 3) as if no one would've noticed the supposed f**k up all that time while writing scripts based on that outline, till months later!

In fact, this proved that this person had no clue - since they had no idea about the reason why there would be rewrites, they had no clue that Ryan and GRRM were still discussing whether there would be 3 or 4 seasons, and they even had no idea that HBO was reducing the number of episodes!

Also, that person (who hates the show and is obsessed with Miguel)   posted that a day after the leaked Emily Beecham audition - which was very positively received and showed that, oh look, a prominent actress auditioned for an important supporting role (and probably didn't even get it). Whenever there is a piece of real news, fake "leaks" happen almost immediately. There's a pattern...

Someone on Twitter claimed that this Redditor guy was reliable because he had supposedly spoiled the Larys feet scene. He didn't. He took that from another, earlier leak post - which was deleted.

See, whenever an actual leak happens, HBO deletes it ASAP. The Emily Beecham audition tape was also quickly deleted. All those "leaks" by random people aren't getting deleted... because they are fake, which brings me to:

Quote

It makes me wonder if some of the rumors about the cast being unhappy with the direction of the show are also true (TL;DR: Creepy sex scene between Alicent and Larys, and increased domestic violence from Daemon).

Well, then I'll tell you: they're as fake as three-dollar bill. 

1) The "leak" by the Redditor who claimed to have somehow seen the premiere script, which included the "there will be a scene of Daemon hitting Rhaenyra", was again by someone whose source was "Dude, trust me", and again came just a day after that "rewrites" Reddit post by the dude who hates the show and is obsessed with Miguel. The "there are rewrites" Reddit post prompted a ton of comments by stans on Twitter, mostly Daemon/Daemyra stans who are angry at Ryan and Sara because of the choking scene, to build up an entire wishful thinking theory that GRRM was stepping in to save their fave from their blackwashing! (As if he didn't himself write Daemon as an incredibly dark and messed up character).

And the very next day, the "leaks from the season 2 premiere" script appears on Reddit... and it was hilarious, because it was so obvious it was someone (probably a Green stan) trolling the Daemyra shippers. They just added a few more things to make it more believable, like "Aemond talks to Vhagar", "Green Council/Helaena os pregnant". a godawful version of Blood and Cheese, and "Jace meets Cregan at the end of the episode". It's really obvious where some of these came from - "They will change B&C" has been a popular theory in the fandom since the Cheese audition video leaked (because people don't understand that a) audition dialogue isn't necessarily the same as in the show, b) even if it was, they probably would try not to reveal everything beforehand, and c) they sure as hell wouldn't be revealing the plot in audition dialogue), and "Maelor still hasn't been born" is what people believe because HBO hasn't added him to the family tree on their website (even though he was included in the opening credits). None of this was original, but several things sounded super fake: even if the writers, for some reason, decided to dilute the B&C scene, they sure wouldn't cut Alicent from it; they also sure wouldn't have the scene where Aemond talks to Alicent and Otto about Luke's death  happen off-screen and have it only referred in dialogue; and they sure wouldn't skip Jeyne Arryn. But I don't think that person gave it much thought - they mostly seemed concerned with trolling Daemyras.

2) This supposed new "leak" is even sillier and has multiple things that only extremely gullible people can believe.... and surprise, surprise, it also came right after we got actual news reports (about season 2's reduced episode count and HBO about to greenlight season 3. Only this time the person who posted this on Twitter is a Daemyra/Matt Smith stan fighting back and trolling Rhaenicents. while also writing a real people fanfic with Matt as a white knight. (That's not even speculation - I thought it right away, but it was confirmed from their follow-up tweets where they started insulting people for not trusting them and referring to them as "lescels", their insulting term for Rhaenicent shippers it esems.)

So many things are silly about this 'leak':

a) why would Olivia be talking about sex scenes with an intimacy coordinator at this point, when they've just finished the scripts and scouting the locations and haven't even started filming?! And all this supposedly happened a while ago if all this is supposed to have already happened?

b) actor contracts are binding and you can't easily get out of them. But THREE main actors supposedly threatened to leave?! Come on

c) Olivia supposedly went to GRRM to protect her from 'degrading sex scenes"? 

d) they supposedly heard all that on a Zoom call? Right...

Another really funny thing is that all those "leakers" claim to have read the scripts, know what happens in the writing room, know what's going on between actors and intimacy coordinators because they were on Zoom meetings with the main actors... but can't tell us who has been cast to play any of the new characters, didn't who auditioned for the new roles (such as that Emily Beecham did), didn't even know about the episode count being reduced...?! 

And, unlike the Larys feet scene leak or the leaked Emily audition, none of their "leaks" got deleted at the request of HBO... Because they are made-up.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Annara Snow