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Ukraine: Ongoing…


Ser Scot A Ellison
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@Maithanet

I hate to dogpile (but I also love to hate, so... :rolleyes:

Some kind of sub-nato alliance for the countries of eastern Europe is a good idea. And they should be working on that yesterday. But yo, that shit's hard. It's hard to have a multinational alliance that can stand up quickly against something like Russia while working together. Like, I don't just mean in the prewar phase. I mean operationally. In the field. You're talking about multiple multi-ethnic and multi-language nations that have to coordinate in real time against a much much more standardized enemy. 

And on that bisects them already! Don't forget Konigsberg. Lithuania gets pincered to piss in this scenario. It's fucking grim if all of NATO doesn't actually do what it takes to keep Russian aggression in hand. 

At the end of the day how much of the Polish army is its commanders going to be willing to put in that natural salient? To help defend the borders of Estonia and Latvia? 

Lithuania? Maaaybe. But I wouldn't order my troops off Polish soil to get slaughtered against the sea by Russians. I couldn't do it. I'd resign. The absolute best I could do - THE BEST I COULD DO is to promise a sort of Baltic Schlieffen action to sweep Konigsberg while holding against Belarus. 

And frankly I don't love that either, because the Russians would be doing the exact same thing coming the other way. 

"Bloodbath" doesn't do that inevitability justice in any language. 

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Well all that sounds like aces for the defense contractors and the congressmen getting the kick backs.  Plus if they get enough US soldiers killed then it's escalation time and let's suspend civil liberties too.  Personally I don't think we have a sound election system here, so pretty much all the incentives push towards confrontation, escalation, and (temporary, of course) emergency spending.  Might need a distraction considering how fantastic the economy has been lately too.  FML.

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More and more, I am coming to the tentative conclusion that Russia will lack the capability to launch another war of aggression against even the likes of the Baltic States - and that assumes they withdraw from Ukraine what's left of their armies gets turned into corpses. 

Put bluntly, Russia has steadily increasing odds of undergoing an economic collapse or becoming a failed state unless they resolve the Ukrainian situation soon - as in before this year is out. 

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4 hours ago, Secretary of Eumenes said:

Lithuania? Maaaybe. But I wouldn't order my troops off Polish soil to get slaughtered against the sea by Russians. I couldn't do it.



I mean, I can't make unilateral promises on Poland's behalf, but I don't think you're taking into account (1) how much Poland fucking hates Russia, and (2) how much Poland believes that we're still in Russia's sights. Any decision Polish leadership makes would be made with 'if we don't stop them now, they'll come for us eventually' in mind. 

 

 

On the other hand, in terms of the idea that a purely former Soviet-Bloc alliance would have calmed Russia:

Quote

Russia might have become a bit less paranoid, less aggressive, and focused less on trying to rebuild a monstrous military. 

 

Yeah, no. Their 'paranoia' is a front. This is just playing into the myth that NATO made Russia do it. Fuck that noise. 

Same with Rippounet's appeasement screed about how if you capitulate to Russia, they'll only want more being... somehow a myth, and even if not, it's painting Russians as inhuman? It's not about Russians, the man on the street, it's about Russia, the political entity, and I don't know what the fuck more they'd need to do to persuade you that they're just gonna go again. And I think you know this really, because you said "even if Russia were to get something out of this war, the cost of the conflict alone should guarantee that it stays put for at least a decade" as if a decade was some unimaginable span of time. I mean, that fucking exact thinking is what led to this war after they got to keep Crimea and we just went 'meh okay, they'll stop now they have Sevastopol secure

4 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Well all that sounds like aces for the defense contractors and the congressmen getting the kick backs.  Plus if they get enough US soldiers killed then it's escalation time and let's suspend civil liberties too.  Personally I don't think we have a sound election system here, so pretty much all the incentives push towards confrontation, escalation, and (temporary, of course) emergency spending.  Might need a distraction considering how fantastic the economy has been lately too.  FML.

I love views of the war that are only about America. Like I know some quite sensible people who just cannot disconnect their personal - quite rightful -scepticism of the motives of American lawmakers from the idea that support for Ukraine, and opposition to Russia, is still a necessary and correct thing to do

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6 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Well all that sounds like aces for the defense contractors and the congressmen getting the kick backs

How many foreign weapons manufacturers do you think benefited from the American revolution and does it bother you significantly  France effectively used the colonies in a proxy war with Great Britain?

Edited by Varysblackfyre321
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4 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

More and more, I am coming to the tentative conclusion that Russia will lack the capability to launch another war of aggression against even the likes of the Baltic States - and that assumes they withdraw from Ukraine what's left of their armies gets turned into corpses. 

Put bluntly, Russia has steadily increasing odds of undergoing an economic collapse or becoming a failed state unless they resolve the Ukrainian situation soon - as in before this year is out. 

Yes it probably couldn't do it, but I think the other point about Russia is that is not going to be attacking a NATO state, it simply would be a total wipeout for Russia if that ever happened. With Ukraine Russia and Putin seems to have banked on the idea that the West and NATO would just let it happen and make noises about being upset but wouldn't get involved, or that it would be over too quickly for them to intervene.

I think the point about not appeasing Putin in letting him just have stuff through invasion is not just about Putin though, because there is only so much he could really aim at, he simply isn't going to be able to restore the Soviet Union borders. The point is to set down a general marker in the sand, maybe to China, that aggressively invading and annexing neighbours doesn't gel with the way the world works any more. 

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I don't think Putin wants to restore the Soviet borders so much as European Russia.. There were a lot of "softer" targets he could have gone for but he chose Ukraine. It seems to me he wants to gather all the areas with large Russian populations. Rather then the full Union. 

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Putin wants the Soviet Union back and then some. (All of the former Warsaw Pact states). It's not about Russian populations, it's about being a world power. The Soviet Union was one, Russia in its current borders is not. With Ukraine, access to the Black Sea and through it to the Mediterranean is also a factor. That's why he wants Crimea so badly.

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34 minutes ago, Loge said:

Putin wants the Soviet Union back and then some. (All of the former Warsaw Pact states). It's not about Russian populations, it's about being a world power. The Soviet Union was one, Russia in its current borders is not. With Ukraine, access to the Black Sea and through it to the Mediterranean is also a factor. That's why he wants Crimea so badly.

Even Stalin didn't annex the whole Warsaw pact I don't think even in Putin's most fevered dreams does he dram of annexing the Czech Republic and Poland. If Putin was really trying to restore the Soviet Union why not go after softer targets first? Belarus, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan were all much easier grabs then Ukraine. Do you really think Putin wants to incorporate millions of hostile Azeri Muslims into Russia, not to mention Tajiks Turkmens and all the rest? It seems pretty clear he wants Russians and  "Russians" in his state. The only land Russia has annexed has been Ukrainian and it seems pretty clear from Putin's speeches that he sees Ukraine as a uniquely fake country.  South Ossetia has been dependent on Russian influence for ages and has even asked to be annexed  and yet Russia hasn't done it.

I'd guess Putin's ideal Russia would be Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics and North Kazakhstan. No way it includes annexing impoverished backwaters like Tajikistan, or millions of non Russian ethnic groups.   

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31 minutes ago, Darzin said:

Even Stalin didn't annex the whole Warsaw pact I don't think even in Putin's most fevered dreams does he dram of annexing the Czech Republic and Poland. If Putin was really trying to restore the Soviet Union why not go after softer targets first? Belarus, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan were all much easier grabs then Ukraine. Do you really think Putin wants to incorporate millions of hostile Azeri Muslims into Russia, not to mention Tajiks Turkmens and all the rest? It seems pretty clear he wants Russians and  "Russians" in his state. The only land Russia has annexed has been Ukrainian and it seems pretty clear from Putin's speeches that he sees Ukraine as a uniquely fake country.  South Ossetia has been dependent on Russian influence for ages and has even asked to be annexed  and yet Russia hasn't done it.

I'd guess Putin's ideal Russia would be Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics and North Kazakhstan. No way it includes annexing impoverished backwaters like Tajikistan, or millions of non Russian ethnic groups.   

Poland and Finland were both part of the Russian Empire.  Stalin attacked and incorporated the eastern parts of Poland into the Soviet Union and started a war with Finland (the Winter War) that he lost.  

Putin’s dream and his rhetoric is about the Russian Empire (check out his speeches before the 2022 invasion).  He saw the Soviet Union as an extension of Imperial Russia.  That’s what Putin really is a revanchist Russian imperialist.  He wants to be remembered as “Vlad the Great” the Tsar who recreated imperial Russia.

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison
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38 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Poland and Finland were both part of the Russian Empire.  Stalin attacked and incorporated the eastern parts of Poland into the Soviet Union and started a war with Finland (the Winter War) that he lost.  

Putin’s dream and his rhetoric is about the Russian Empire (check out his speeches before the 2022 invasion).  He saw the Soviet Union as an extension of Imperial Russia.  That’s what Putin really is a revanchist Russian imperialist.  He wants to be remembered as “Vlad the Great” the Tsar who recreated imperial Russia.

Yes but he also had Russian soldiers in the entire Warsaw pact and didn't annex the rest of Poland and Bulgaria applied to join the Soviet union and was rebuffed.

Ossetia has been trying to join Russia  but was pressured by the Russian government to not join and this is not the first time this has happened. Putin doesn't want every bit of clay that was in the empire else he'd take the willing and enthusiastic region of Ossetia.  

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45 minutes ago, Darzin said:

Even Stalin didn't annex the whole Warsaw pact I don't think even in Putin's most fevered dreams does he dram of annexing the Czech Republic and Poland. If Putin was really trying to restore the Soviet Union why not go after softer targets first? Belarus, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan were all much easier grabs then Ukraine. Do you really think Putin wants to incorporate millions of hostile Azeri Muslims into Russia, not to mention Tajiks Turkmens and all the rest? It seems pretty clear he wants Russians and  "Russians" in his state. The only land Russia has annexed has been Ukrainian and it seems pretty clear from Putin's speeches that he sees Ukraine as a uniquely fake country.  South Ossetia has been dependent on Russian influence for ages and has even asked to be annexed  and yet Russia hasn't done it.

I'd guess Putin's ideal Russia would be Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics and North Kazakhstan. No way it includes annexing impoverished backwaters like Tajikistan, or millions of non Russian ethnic groups.   

"Ethnic Russian" is a fluid term, and Russia already has millions of members of non-Russian ethnic groups within its borders. A good example is Shoigu (Putin's defense minister) - he is of Tuvan descent, but declares his ethnicity as Russian, and is accepted as Russian by other Russians.

Minorities in Russia are under heavy pressure to assimilate, there are plenty of "mixed marriages" between Russians and non-Russians, and children from those marriages consider themselves as Russian in a vast majority of cases. This process was muted in the Soviet Union, which for all its faults made a great show of being multicultural and of respecting different nationalities. Few such pretenses remain in today's Russia.

Although that process works both ways. Those same people who now declare as Russian may stop doing so in the future. Kharkiv has a large Russian population, but has fiercely resisted the invasion, and I'm willing to bet most of Russians in Kharkiv will declare themselves as Ukrainian in the next census.

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3 minutes ago, Darzin said:

Yes but he also had Russian soldiers in the entire Warsaw pact and didn't annex the rest of Poland and Bulgaria applied to join the Soviet union and was rebuffed.

Ossetia has been trying to join Russia  but was pressured by the Russian government to not join and this is not the first time this has happened. Putin doesn't want every bit of clay that was in the empire else he'd take the willing and enthusiastic region of Ossetia.  

You really think Putin doesn’t want to rebuild the Russian Empire as it existed in 1914?  

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11 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

You really think Putin doesn’t want to rebuild the Russian Empire as it existed in 1914?  

Yes absolutely their is a very clear patter of which countries Russia delegitimizes and  which it doesn't. Russia  and Russian commentators have called Kazakhstan and especially Ukraine fake countries multiple times they've repeatedly made allusions to the Baltics. On the contrary Georgia a country which they fought a literal war with has not had nearly the same types of provocations neither has Azerbaijan. If Putin wanted to he, prior to this war, could have rolled into Central Asia with minimal initial resistance and he's currently refusing territory whose local government is offering itself up for annexation. 

19 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Minorities in Russia are under heavy pressure to assimilate, there are plenty of "mixed marriages" between Russians and non-Russians, and children from those marriages consider themselves as Russian in a vast majority of cases. This process was muted in the Soviet Union, which for all its faults made a great show of being multicultural and of respecting different nationalities. Few such pretenses remain in today's Russia.

 I dunno modern Russia has pretty much the same system as the Soviets did except with Federal republics instead of SSRs and ASSrs. I agree people do assimilate though I think it has a lot more to do with the Russian as a dominate culture rather than state policy the Tartar local government has tried rather hard to keep Tartar culture alive to know avail. Though Chechnya very much the exception to the rule shows what an unassimilated federal subject looks like. Regardless I think adding a few million unrussified Azeris or Tajiks would not be something Putin would want. 

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4 hours ago, Darzin said:

I'd guess Putin's ideal Russia would be Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltics and North Kazakhstan. No way it includes annexing impoverished backwaters like Tajikistan, or millions of non Russian ethnic groups.   

I don't think Putin has a definitive end game in mind.  Except to maintain and increase Russian power (and thus Putin's power) as much as he can.  Russia was reasonably happy with the Ukraine situation prior to 2014.  There were pro-EU support there but Russian affiliated people could still win elections.

The problem only really emerged when it became clear that it would be very difficult for pro-Russian people to win an election in Ukraine again.  And Ukraine was determined to move away from Russia's orbit.  Putin feels he cannot allow that (especially not Ukraine).

I don't believe he feels compelled to conquer all these countries.  He just wants to dominate them.  Belarus, South Ossetia etc.  And then more.

I think you'd be very foolish to think he would stop at a certain point.  If he drags big parts of Ukraine under his control, he will then start looking at what he can grab next or bring back into Russia's orbit.  Could be Moldova or Kazakhstan or wherever?  People can very reasonably point out that even victory in Ukraine would leave him significantly bloodied but whether its one year or 10, the  logical conclusion now is that Russia wouldn't stop until it is forced to.

As @Clueless Northman said, the Baltics will never not be at risk from Russia.  If they go down the Belarus path, they will be interfered with.  If they continue to maintain their independence, they will be at risk of being interfered with.  Naturally, they see the best approach to reducing that risk is by trying to ensure that Russia really regrets its military misadventures.  They will still not be completely safe but it does seem to be its best option.

4 hours ago, Darzin said:

On the contrary Georgia a country which they fought a literal war with has not had nearly the same types of provocations neither has Azerbaijan. If Putin wanted to he, prior to this war, could have rolled into Central Asia with minimal initial resistance and he's currently refusing territory whose local government is offering itself up for annexation. 

I believe rolling into Azerbaijan is out of the question given Turkey would significantly respond to that.  I would be worried if I was Georgia though but they haven't set themselves on a firm path yet, so aren't as vulnerable as Moldova (say)

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