Ukraine: Ongoing…

[Maithanet]

I agree that if f16s mean that Russia must devote significant missile resources to bombing tarmac instead of buildings or troop concentrations, I would consider that a big win.  

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, horangi said:

Even if the planes have only a minimal impact offensively, they can become a 'fleet-in-being' wherein the Russians are forced to react as if they could be used.  Every missile used on a runway cratering mission is one not targeting an apartment block in Kyiv.  Its the same for many of the modern NATO systems being donated, they force a reaction and remove tactical and strategic flexibility without even a single round fired, much like moving ammo depots outside of HIMARS range.

I love the Alfred Thayer Mahan reference.   

[Toth]

To me it's interesting to know the range difference between the missiles F-16s would carry and Russian S-400 batteries that would endanger the F-16s. According to Wikipedia, the S400 usually has a range of 240 kilometers. The AGM-158 JASSM used by the F-16 has at its baseline configuration a range of 370 km. Sounds safe enough to use against stationary targets, but I somehow get the impression that other far more limited missiles are being used for close air support missions, which is what I believe what Ukraine needs the most to shield their offensive.

Case in point, I'm just seeing that the AGM-158 JASSM has identical combat role of the Storm Shadow supplied by the British...

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Toth said:

To me it's interesting to know the range difference between the missiles F-16s would carry and Russian S-400 batteries that would endanger the F-16s. According to Wikipedia, the S400 usually has a range of 240 kilometers. The AGM-158 JASSM used by the F-16 has at its baseline configuration a range of 370 km. Sounds safe enough to use against stationary targets, but I somehow get the impression that other far more limited missiles are being used for close air support missions, which is what I believe what Ukraine needs the most to shield their offensive.

Case in point, I'm just seeing that the AGM-158 JASSM has identical combat role of the Storm Shadow supplied by the British...

Typically with a F-16 air mission, you'd send a AA suppression team (usually 4 aircraft) ahead to specifically target enemy fighters and ground missiles, and then a second team of 4 aircraft to hit the actual target. The F-16 isn't best deployed as a lone fighter or in pairs, although they can obviously make do.

I think the main appeal of the F-16 and its long-range missiles is being able to intercept and hit Russian jets standing off in Belarussian and Russian airspace to hit targets in Ukraine, which current Ukrainian AA or fighters can't hit (well, apart from that time they did and blew an Su-34 and 35 out of the sky and nobody is still sure on how they did it). There's also likely some tactics and targets talk going on about how vulnerable Black Sea missile frigates would be to air attacks and if they can suppress their AA and get hits in on the missile destroyers, forcing them to withdraw well back from the Ukrainian coast.

The first priority here seems to be preventing the Russians from using cruise missiles with impunity on Ukrainian soil and and then using air support for ground attack missions to help make up for a deficiency in Ukrainian heavy artillery.

You can see the Russians shitting bricks about this because it will effectively remove their few remaining options for long-range strikes on Ukrainian territory whilst giving the Ukrainians more options for striking Russian-occupied territory and they don't have an easy, short-term option to counter (if they want to build 500 Su-35s or even 57s and engage in an all-out air-slug war to gain final air superiority at a high cost, fine, but that'll take years and cost them billions).

[Gorn]

Using modern multimillion dollar missiles to make holes in runways is one of the dumbest things you can use them for.

Even if you hit the runway with perfect accuracy, fixing the damage will take a day and maybe a thousand dollars worth of construction materials.

[Kalbear]

3 hours ago, Gorn said:

Using modern multimillion dollar missiles to make holes in runways is one of the dumbest things you can use them for.

Even if you hit the runway with perfect accuracy, fixing the damage will take a day and maybe a thousand dollars worth of construction materials.

That's not really accurate with modern airplanes and modern runways. It's true for the migs that the Ukrainians are using. F16s need significantly better runways and repairing it isn't like a pothole.

[Loge]

8 hours ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

That's not really accurate with modern airplanes and modern runways. It's true for the migs that the Ukrainians are using. F16s need significantly better runways and repairing it isn't like a pothole.

The F-16 may have more delicate landing gear than the Soviet era fighter planes Ukraine currently operates, but filling a hole in a runway can't be particularly hard or expensive. Unlike, say, repairing the Kerch bridge.

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Loge said:

The F-16 may have more delicate landing gear than the Soviet era fighter planes Ukraine currently operates, but filling a hole in a runway can't be particularly hard or expensive. Unlike, say, repairing the Kerch bridge.

I think the two go together, the more delicate landing gear means that you have zero margin for error, miss a fairly small hole on the runway and your mega-expensive fighter can go crashing off the runway altogether.

Again, these are issues Ukraine is well aware of. Every step of the way, people have said, "well, they can't use our stuff because of x y or z," and every time so far Ukraine has adapted, often with stunning speed and creativity. We've seen that with HIMARS, their donated MiGs and now with Patriots. Ukraine can adapt to using F-16s very quickly (within four months, according to some US estimates, well down on the eighteen they were previously discussing). They're currently firing Storm Shadows from aircraft that were never meant to be able to use them.

When the threat is existential to yourself, your friends, your family and your way of life, it's surprising what the hell you can accomplish.

Edited May 21, 2023 by Werthead

[Gorn]

10 hours ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

That's not really accurate with modern airplanes and modern runways. It's true for the migs that the Ukrainians are using. F16s need significantly better runways and repairing it isn't like a pothole.

"Modern runways" aren't made of made of any magical materials, they're just regular well-paved runways that are kept free of gravel and dust.

So yeah, it's exactly like fixing a pothole

[Kalbear]

2 hours ago, Gorn said:

"Modern runways" aren't made of made of any magical materials, they're just regular well-paved runways that are kept free of gravel and dust.

So yeah, it's exactly like fixing a pothole

Seattle Airport would beg to differ - they had to spend millions to fix holes in runways after we got a nasty ice storm, and it definitely did not take a day.

I am totally willing to believe that Ukraine can and will adapt to these issues but it is not accurate to say they are trivially dealt with. The US military considers this a big deal when planning against Chinese attacks on air bases, Ukraine is taking it seriously, and the FAA believes its a big deal too.

[ThinkerX]

Supposedly, the Wagner mercenaries are claiming to have captured Bakmut or whatever it is called. 

Claim is, this gives Russia a bridgehead...but if Russia sends a bunch of troops and difficult to replace toys there, doesn't that just make them a target?

 

[Toth]

4 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Supposedly, the Wagner mercenaries are claiming to have captured Bakmut or whatever it is called. 

Claim is, this gives Russia a bridgehead...but if Russia sends a bunch of troops and difficult to replace toys there, doesn't that just make them a target?

Pretty much this is why the Ukrainians are at the same time bragging about rolling up the Russian flanks. Even if they can't really encircle the city, they can now bomb the Russians with artillery when they try to advance from the city. Ukrainians also claim they still hold a slim strip at the outskirts, so I guess there will still be some fighting anyway.

[Makk]

It will be interesting to see what Prigozhin actually does now. He likely genuinely wants to leave Bakhmut, he has publicly said he will in a few days, but Putin will probably deny him that option. If Ukraine can keep pushing around the flanks tension between the two should reach breaking point pretty quickly. If he is allowed to leave Bakhmut could be liberated pretty quickly unless the Russian army risks a significant number of troops there.

[Werthead]

The Ukrainians have secured a large swathe of the southern outlying area of the town, giving them almost tactical encirclement of the southern flank. It's been noted they've done this whilst slowly drawing Ukrainian troops out of the centre. Effectively a mini-Stalingrad by pulling the enemy into the centre of the trap and then springing it closed.

However, the Ukrainians do not seem to have secured the northern flanks, and have been stymied by heavy resistance where they've tried. So it's an imperfect trap, if that's what it was meant to be. I suspect a lot of the Ukrainian successes in Bakhmut have been massively opportunistic rather than the result of some masterplan, responding to the Russians being really dumb.

Prigozhin's announcement of a withdrawal might be that he's wary of Ukraine trapping Wagner in the city and destroying them, and his political rivals allowing them, whilst Shigoi and Gerasimov are equally wary of Wagner pulling out, regular Russian troops replacing them, and then them being destroyed by Ukraine, allowing Prigozhin to say to Putin, "Aha! Look only Wagner can get shit down in this war, the regular army lets us down every time!"

[The Anti-Targ]

Fixing a pot hole, or missile hole, properly is not a cheap and easy thing. We know because our roads get "fixed" using cheap and dirty methods and  those holes reappear in very short order. The materials might be inexpensive, but you've got to make a good job of it.

[Wilbur]

Other ideas about F16s in Ukraine:

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Is this really happening?  Are Russian partisans armed by Ukraine successfully assaulting Belogorod?

 

[Spockydog]

 

 

[Werthead]

WTF.

Four border villages between the Ukrainian border and the city have apparently been "occupied" and one Russian helicopter has been shot down. Russian military units are being sent into the southern parts of the city.

Crazy reports that the regional governor's wife has fled the area and Russia has evacuated its tactical nuclear weapon storage facility at Grayvoron. Grayvoron's police HQ has reportedly been captured and a nearby bridge destroyed.

Whether any of this is real or not is questionable, but the Russian reporting has gone berserk gone on the incident. One Ukrainian report that this was a "spoiling operation" launched by ~60 Russian partisans and they found absolutely nothing between them and the city of Belgorod, so have just gone for a jaunt.

If that's true, a single Ukrainian brigade could have rolled over the border and taken the city in an afternoon or two.

Simultaneously, Ukraine has issued an official warning in Russian to all Russian soldiers on the front urging them to surrender or face the grinder, "which is just going to get worse."

[Which Tyler]

Sounds like those 60 partisans have made more ground in 9 hours than Russia has in the last 9 months