Ukraine: Ongoing…

[Rippounet]

Sorry about not taking the time, but I'll quickly address the main point:

@Padraig

Quote

My other interpretation of your argument is that it is mainly a theoretical/academic exercise about the futility of war than an actual debate about the reality in Ukraine.

Correct. I'm operating from the assumption that we all agree on the reality to begin with, i.e. that everyone here wishes for Russia's defeat, and yes most of my points are academic since no one on this forum is an actual decision-maker.

[A True Kaniggit]

23 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Sorry about not taking the time, but I'll quickly address the main point:

Booooo!
 

Answer what I quoted. What you said was plain silly. 
 

Specifically your claim that the war was started to bleed Russia, when Russia is the one that started the war. 

Edited April 1, 2023 by A True Kaniggit

[Darzin]

19 hours ago, Secretary of Eumenes said:

Hey I've been wrong before. I don't claim to be some political science wonk. I'm just telling you what makes sense to me. 

I can be obnoxious, perhaps. And could do better in managing that condition. 

Lots of people with fancy degrees and important titles have been saying the same thing, but after a year it still hasn't happened 

and I don't find you obnoxious I find your rants endearing  and usually spot on, 

[Werthead]

A cafe in St. Petersburg has been bombed whilst a prominent pro-Russia military blogger was speaking at an event. He was killed outright and around 25 other people were injured. The cafe was previously owned by Wagner head Prigozhin.

There's no suggestion, not even from the Russians, that the Ukrainians were behind the attack. Instead, there seem to be indications that either anti-militant forces in Russia or even a rival military blogger or organisation may have carried out the attack.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Initial reporting I saw went like this.

Before the event, Tatarsky (the blogger from Donetsk oblast) received a bust of himself from a female attendant of that event. She picked a seat in one of the backrows, the bust went boom, and she disappeared.

Not quite the Trojan horse, but be careful of gifts bearing your face.

[ThinkerX]

7 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Initial reporting I saw went like this.

Before the event, Tatarsky (the blogger from Donetsk oblast) received a bust of himself from a female attendant of that event. She picked a seat in one of the backrows, the bust went boom, and she disappeared.

Not quite the Trojan horse, but be careful of gifts bearing your face.

I am reminded of a similar scene in the Romulan Senate from one or another of the Star Trek movies. 

That said, this must have ramped up the paranoia level amongst Russia's elite a few notches - though I wonder if said paranoia is sufficient to overcome monumental corruption and incompetence...

[The Anti-Targ]

On 4/2/2023 at 8:19 AM, A True Kaniggit said:

Booooo!
 

Answer what I quoted. What you said was plain silly. 
 

Specifically your claim that the war was started to bleed Russia, when Russia is the one that started the war. 

Strictly speaking those two things aren't mutually exclusive, esp since there are at least two Russias: The Russia that is the population and land of Russia and the Russia that is the govt / rulers of those people and the land. The former Russia started no war, the latter Russia certainly did, claiming to do so on behalf of the former, but I doubt that was the real motive.

[Werthead]

20 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Initial reporting I saw went like this.

Before the event, Tatarsky (the blogger from Donetsk oblast) received a bust of himself from a female attendant of that event. She picked a seat in one of the backrows, the bust went boom, and she disappeared.

Not quite the Trojan horse, but be careful of gifts bearing your face.

There's a lot of interesting claims flying around, including the idea it was an FSB operation. Tatarsky apparently directly criticised Putin a couple of times by name on Telegram, whilst other bloggers have been careful to never push the blame higher than the heads of the general staff (even naming Gerasimov and Shoigu is dodgy, but some have and lived to tell the tale). Tatarsky had also debunked a Russian video supposedly showing Ukrainian soldiers mistreating civilians, saying it was clearly staged and he wanted to beat Ukraine without resorting to lies.

There are of course a lot of competing claims that it was Ukrainian intelligence, the Russian internal resistance or even a rival military blogger who'd had a spat of some kind with him.

[Corvinus85]

While most Americans have been focused on a certain clown in NYC today, Finland has officially joined NATO today. This effectively doubles Russia's border with the alliance. Congratulations to President Putin are in order.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

52 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

While most Americans have been focused on a certain clown in NYC today, Finland has officially joined NATO today. This effectively doubles Russia's border with the alliance. Congratulations to President Putin are in order.

NATO should send Putin an engraved set of steak knives for his successful sale of NATO expansion.

[Denvek]

52 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

NATO should send Putin an engraved set of steak knives for his successful sale of NATO expansion.

Wait until Sweden joins. Erdogan's still holding that one up.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Not to be resolved before the Turkish election next month.

[Padraig]

There actually is a possibility that Erdogan may lose.  I mean, I shouldn't have even checked since I will now be even more disappointed by the results but it might be the easiest way for Sweden to join NATO.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Yes, but either way. Erdogan is using or has used Sweden's NATO application for his campaign (anti-Kurdish). That dingbat burning the Quran near the Turkish embassy in Sweden was a godsend for him. That way he could rile up his islamist/nationalist base even more.

If the election is done, Erdogan himself might be willing to take a less hardline approach.

Like I said, after the election things might go rather quick.

 

[Ser Reptitious]

3 hours ago, Padraig said:

There actually is a possibility that Erdogan may lose. 

People said the same thing about Orban in Hungary last year (before he got re-elected in a landslide). Much as I would like that to be the case, with both of them basically in complete control of the media, I don't buy it. The word "possibility" carries a lot of weight here, sadly.

[Ser Reptitious]

3 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

If the election is done, Erdogan himself might be willing to take a less hardline approach.

I think that (ironically) Finnland abandoning "Scandinavian solidarity" and pushing ahead on joining NATO on its own has also greatly weakened Erdogan's hand. Sure, Sweden has some islands in the Baltic sea potentially exposed to Russian aggression, but I suspect the real fear was more about a Ukraine-style land invasion via Finnland, which is now essentially gone, so Sweden needing to join NATO is less urgent now.

Edited April 5, 2023 by Ser Reptitious

[The Anti-Targ]

Grumbling by neighbouring EU members over Ukraine getting too easy access for grain exports to the EU.

Hungary, Neighbors Turn to EC Pres Over Flood of Ukrainian Grain - BBJ

Quote

The European Union decision to waive customs duties on Ukrainian farm products to expedite their export has resulted in an "unprecedented" volume of grain and oilseed imports in neighboring countries, Nagy said. Ukrainian farmers have also started exporting a large volume of poultry, eggs and honey to the EU, "squeezing out" Hungarian products from their traditional markets and driving farm gate prices lower, he added.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

34 minutes ago, Ser Reptitious said:

I think that (ironically) Finnland abandoning "Scandinavian solidarity" and pushing ahead on joining NATO on its own has also greatly weakened Erdogan's hand. Sure, Sweden has some islands in the Baltic sea potentially exposed to Russian aggression, but I suspect the real fear was more about a Ukraine-style land invasion via Finnland, which is now essentially gone, so Sweden needing to join NATO is less urgent now.

We’ve already told the Swedes they’ll be protected while in the “holding pattern”.  The Russians would be idiots to try anything.

Edited April 5, 2023 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[ThinkerX]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

We’ve already told the Swedes they’ll be protected while in the “holding pattern”.  The Russians would be idiots to try anything.

Alas, idiots are in abundant supply. Russia's lack of troops and equipment are the deciding short- and medium-term factors against them launching yet another war.

 

[kiko]

3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Grumbling by neighbouring EU members over Ukraine getting too easy access for grain exports to the EU.

Hungary, Neighbors Turn to EC Pres Over Flood of Ukrainian Grain - BBJ

 

If only the stupid EU could have foreseen the trouble for their most esteemed members Poland and Hungary. Let's wait and see if they start supporting Romania, Bulgaria and Slowakia dealing with this issue. That won't happen though and EU shouldn't do that kind of thing, regardless of what we think of Fidesz and PiS.

But isn't bringing down food prices a good thing if you are not a farmer? And since Ukraine is on its way to EU membership, they have to get used to the competition anyway.